eyewall Posted December 25, 2012 Share Posted December 25, 2012 Snowing nicely in Williston this morning! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ctsnowstorm628 Posted December 25, 2012 Share Posted December 25, 2012 Merry Christmas guys! NWS likes my 10-14" idea. Enjoy!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
J.Spin Posted December 25, 2012 Share Posted December 25, 2012 Man I-89 from Waterbury to Montpelier must be getting hit hard. Yeah, not sure what time it started, but it looks like it’s a bit over two inches down. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eyewall Posted December 25, 2012 Share Posted December 25, 2012 The scene in Williston today Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
N. OF PIKE Posted December 25, 2012 Share Posted December 25, 2012 Can anyone link btv's accum map. Just have access to mobilephone now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ctsnowstorm628 Posted December 25, 2012 Share Posted December 25, 2012 Can anyone link btv's accum map. Just have access to mobilephone now http://www.erh.noaa.gov/btv/html/StormTotalSnow/StormTotalSnow.shtml I hate my life lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
N. OF PIKE Posted December 25, 2012 Share Posted December 25, 2012 Thank u. Ill be in randolph @ the college (right next to it) @1420'I was wondering if they arer shadowed there? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 25, 2012 Author Share Posted December 25, 2012 Merry Christmas to all the NNE crew, Looks to be a great week of winter weather, I knew my thread would produce............ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted December 25, 2012 Share Posted December 25, 2012 I like a widespread 8-14 inches, with 8" in the NEK downslope areas, and 14" along the east slope of the Spine of the Greens (RT 100 corridor)... although the west slope of the Spine could catch up quickly once the flow goes NW. Essentially... locally 12-16" along the Spine but that's pretty much standard operating procedure up here. GFS and NAM look solid with a lot less of that dryslot/downslope wedge of lower QPF. I think the backside wrap around NW flow is what will take some areas into the next tier... anytime that 0.1-0.25" QPF shading lingers in the vicinity of the spine on the backside of the storm, that's a signal right there for enhanced fluffy accums on moist cyclonic flow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ctsnowstorm628 Posted December 25, 2012 Share Posted December 25, 2012 Leave it to the hi res NAM to make me wanna kill myself in the NEK lolol Same amount at my house as there is at LSC. So wrong. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted December 25, 2012 Share Posted December 25, 2012 Leave it to the hi res NAM to make me wanna kill myself in the NEK lolol Same amount at my house as there is at LSC. So wrong. Haha I have a hard time believing under an inch even in the downslope area. I'm surprised it doesn't show the Green Mountain Spine enhancement all the way up to Jay Peak. I've never seen the northern part of the spine get missed in any orographic enhancement from any wind direction, lol. 12z GFS would end up looking very different with best deformation and wrap around NW flow across northern VT. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ctsnowstorm628 Posted December 25, 2012 Share Posted December 25, 2012 Haha I have a hard time believing under an inch even in the downslope area. I'm surprised it doesn't show the Green Mountain Spine enhancement all the way up to Jay Peak. I've never seen the northern part of the spine get missed in any orographic enhancement from any wind direction, lol. Lol, yeah I think it over/under does that type of thing due to its 4km resolution and micro physics scheme. I have not done much research into this, but I'm considering it as a senior thesis topic next year. So interesting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted December 25, 2012 Share Posted December 25, 2012 Merry Christmas everyone! Sun has come out now with blue skies over the mountain and sparkling powder on the ground. What a great day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gravitylover Posted December 25, 2012 Share Posted December 25, 2012 That right there is a solid thumbs up ^ :clap: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
klw Posted December 25, 2012 Share Posted December 25, 2012 2.9 inches today. It started a little after 7:30 and came pretty hard for a while there. it was pure fluff that was easily pushed aside with the toboggan later. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ctsnowstorm628 Posted December 25, 2012 Share Posted December 25, 2012 Latest thoughts: PF: 12-16" LSC: 10-12" St. J: 7-9" Higher els of NEK: 12-16" BTV: 10-12" Littleton,NH: 6-8" Dendrite: 10-14" Jeff in the dirty Lew: 12-16" Coastal ME: very variable but mainly 6-12" with lower amounts on immediate coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxjim207 Posted December 25, 2012 Share Posted December 25, 2012 Just saw this post I have to disagree with this map. Reasons are because I feel the mixing doesn't occur this fast. I also believe the cold air lasts and holds on very long. Coastal Maine I expect 4-8" of snow. 4" on the Ocean Front and a mile inland I expect 6-8". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 25, 2012 Author Share Posted December 25, 2012 That map from news 13 is on the low side Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 25, 2012 Author Share Posted December 25, 2012 Latest thoughts: PF: 12-16" LSC: 10-12" St. J: 7-9" Higher els of NEK: 12-16" BTV: 10-12" Littleton,NH: 6-8" Dendrite: 10-14" Jeff in the dirty Lew: 12-16" Coastal ME: very variable but mainly 6-12" with lower amounts on immediate coast. Good call Ed, I have me in 10-14" here and the foothills, 4-8" coast and 5-8" Millinocket area and 4-7" Northern County Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lava Rock Posted December 25, 2012 Share Posted December 25, 2012 i saw that wmtw map and was thinking wtf!? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxjim207 Posted December 25, 2012 Share Posted December 25, 2012 That map from news 13 is on the low side Also feel Channel 6 is going low too... Dusting to 4 inches for most of Coastal Maine the Met was showing... Cold Air and higher QPF should allow for more accumulation. Been going 5-7" of wet heavy snow before any mixing with sleet & rain... I cannot rule out rain but feeling we might hold on just enough cold air to stay sleet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ctsnowstorm628 Posted December 25, 2012 Share Posted December 25, 2012 Just remembered...forecasting for VTrans for the storm LOL so excited! Yo Sinko! Me, Matt, and Alex are on tomorrow. Totally pumped. I got zones 1,2, and 4! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahk_webstah Posted December 25, 2012 Share Posted December 25, 2012 Just saw this post I have to disagree with this map. Reasons are because I feel the mixing doesn't occur this fast. I also believe the cold air lasts and holds on very long. Coastal Maine I expect 4-8" of snow. 4" on the Ocean Front and a mile inland I expect 6-8". 1-2 inches for Concord NH? Wow....I don't think there is one model that gives us less than 8 or 10 inches Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahk_webstah Posted December 25, 2012 Share Posted December 25, 2012 Good call Ed, I have me in 10-14" here and the foothills, 4-8" coast and 5-8" Millinocket area and 4-7" Northern County Why are you 10-14? The qpf has you over 1.5 on just about every model and over 2 on some (right?) Just being conservative? I would think you are 12-18 with lollies near 24 not too far nw of you. 5 sd easterly flow and foothills doesn't suggest being conservative. But wth do I know lol! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mreaves Posted December 26, 2012 Share Posted December 26, 2012 Just remembered...forecasting for VTrans for the storm LOL so excited! Yo Sinko! Me, Matt, and Alex are on tomorrow. Totally pumped. I got zones 1,2, and 4! What areas are these? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nittany88 Posted December 26, 2012 Share Posted December 26, 2012 Man I-89 from Waterbury to Montpelier must be getting hit hard. Montpelier is down to 1/2sm moderate snow now...likely high ratio fluff too. Hitting a brick wall as it moves up here. Flurries at the base of the ski resort and light snow falling at the summit. You can see the virga clearly from up at 3,600ft. Looking out you see the wispy look of snow falling but visibility improves to like 40 miles down below 2,000ft haha. Yup! Got a nice 1.5" of pure fluff this morning in J-ville. I like a widespread 8-14 inches, with 8" in the NEK downslope areas, and 14" along the east slope of the Spine of the Greens (RT 100 corridor)... although the west slope of the Spine could catch up quickly once the flow goes NW. Essentially... locally 12-16" along the Spine but that's pretty much standard operating procedure up here. GFS and NAM look solid with a lot less of that dryslot/downslope wedge of lower QPF. I think the backside wrap around NW flow is what will take some areas into the next tier... anytime that 0.1-0.25" QPF shading lingers in the vicinity of the spine on the backside of the storm, that's a signal right there for enhanced fluffy accums on moist cyclonic flow. Agree. The western slopes of the southern Greens could really get significantly shadowed (Addison/Rutland) if some of the higher resolution models are correct. Showing quite the downslope signature in those parts. Less shadowing further north as there's more of a northerly component to the east wind rather than southerly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nittany88 Posted December 26, 2012 Share Posted December 26, 2012 What areas are these? Southern VT (basically Bennington, Windham, and Windsor Counties). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 26, 2012 Author Share Posted December 26, 2012 Also feel Channel 6 is going low too... Dusting to 4 inches for most of Coastal Maine the Met was showing... Cold Air and higher QPF should allow for more accumulation. Been going 5-7" of wet heavy snow before any mixing with sleet & rain... I cannot rule out rain but feeling we might hold on just enough cold air to stay sleet. Yeah, I looked at Keith's map he is low as well, They must be expecting some warming, The qpf is certainly there for the higher totals, The Nam is really the warm outlier but they must be giving it some weight in there forecast Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 26, 2012 Author Share Posted December 26, 2012 Why are you 10-14? The qpf has you over 1.5 on just about every model and over 2 on some (right?) Just being conservative? I would think you are 12-18 with lollies near 24 not too far nw of you. 5 sd easterly flow and foothills doesn't suggest being conservative. But wth do I know lol! I like to leave me some room mark, You can always adjust up but i hate to go balls in and bust Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MaineJayhawk Posted December 26, 2012 Share Posted December 26, 2012 That channel 13 map cracks me up ... shows me at 2-5". Did they omit the "1" in front by mistake? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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