powderfreak Posted December 24, 2012 Share Posted December 24, 2012 Man look at that shadowing in the NE Kingdom of Vermont... ctsnowstorm might hang himself if he was at Lyndon and this transpired. Just another solution on the table..nothing more, nothing less. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattlacroix4 Posted December 24, 2012 Share Posted December 24, 2012 Great forecast discussion just put up by Gray. I would like to say I apprechiate all the time put into this technical discussion. Great period of weather coming. I am sad that my area could end up being one of the few with a brown christmas though, even to southern NE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 24, 2012 Author Share Posted December 24, 2012 Yeah I don't see what the big secret is, I mean I spell it out in the AFD that was just sent. Why not let a few weenies see the image too. We're really only bound by the pre-release information that could give an advantage to partners over others. This more so applies to headlines and not the forecast values themselves. Just read your AFD, You spelled it out quite well, You would not need a map to figure where those higher values would be Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted December 24, 2012 Share Posted December 24, 2012 Some photos from today... it just refuses to stop snowing in the Greens. It snowed most of the day on Mansfield and there was 6.5" of new snow overnight. The fluffiest stuff you could ever imagine. I've measured 41" in past 8 days at 3,000ft. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted December 24, 2012 Share Posted December 24, 2012 Great forecast discussion just put up by Gray. I would like to say I apprechiate all the time put into this technical discussion. Great period of weather coming. I am sad that my area could end up being one of the few with a brown christmas though, even to southern NE. Just read your AFD, You spelled it out quite well, You would not need a map to figure where those higher values would be Glad you guys enjoyed it. I remember reading AFDs being one of my favorite parts of the lead up to a winter storm when I was younger. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorEaster27 Posted December 24, 2012 Share Posted December 24, 2012 Man look at that shadowing in the NE Kingdom of Vermont... ctsnowstorm might hang himself if he was at Lyndon and this transpired. Just another solution on the table..nothing more, nothing less. The eastern dacks tend to do very well with strong east to south east flow, would not surprise me to see 15 inch + amounts if this track holds. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattlacroix4 Posted December 24, 2012 Share Posted December 24, 2012 Really like where I sit right now. GFS is a little warmer, but looks a little more QPF too. Is that coastal front setting up right near Portland? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEK_VT_Upslope_Event Posted December 24, 2012 Share Posted December 24, 2012 I am not worried about any shadowing sitting at 1500' in caledonia county. I would be a bit concerned for st j and lyndonville though. Burke should do well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MaineJayhawk Posted December 24, 2012 Share Posted December 24, 2012 Nice pics as always, Freak! I had a short amount of time to get in a hike this afternoon and decided to go to Mt Willard and Mt Avalon at the head of Crawford Notch. 16° at Avalon's 3430' summit and the winds were light thanks to Mt Tom next door. Not as much snow on the trees as Freak's hood has, but if I went to 4k I would've ... hvy hvy frosting on the high peaks. Getting stoked about my next hike on Saturday - I didn't need the snowshoes today (trail was well-packed) but will most certainly need them then. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eekuasepinniW Posted December 24, 2012 Share Posted December 24, 2012 Wow...awesome photo. Never seen Crawford notch from this angle. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted December 24, 2012 Share Posted December 24, 2012 That second pic is absolutely beautiful. The views in the mountains are something else... I'm envious you get so much quiet time in the mountains. Its so easy to reflect on life and really feel peaceful. That's the only downside at being at a major eastern ski resort all the time. There's always stuff going on around you, sometimes I need to take a minute to take it all in. That's actually why I enjoy checking the snow stakes so much...its so quite and off-the-beaten path surrounded by evergreens sporting 3 foot piles. That's my "happy place" lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ctsnowstorm628 Posted December 24, 2012 Share Posted December 24, 2012 Man look at that shadowing in the NE Kingdom of Vermont... ctsnowstorm might hang himself if he was at Lyndon and this transpired. Just another solution on the table..nothing more, nothing less. LOL damn. Just brutal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tamarack Posted December 24, 2012 Share Posted December 24, 2012 Yeah definitely. Consensus usually performs the best. I first really got a good handle of that during the '07-'08 winter back on eastern. There would probably be 3 or 4 of us mets talking late through the night wondering what the heck these southwest flow events were going to do. I'm sure Ekster has filled you in on some of those. We all really learned a lot though that winter just by bouncing ideas off eachother and posting all sorts of model data and verification when the time came. And you had about 20 of those events to practice on. Like seeing my whole general area in 10-14" (or more), especially after trying to move 8" of 3:1 glop last week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MaineJayhawk Posted December 24, 2012 Share Posted December 24, 2012 Wow...awesome photo. Never seen Crawford notch from this angle. Nice day in the mountains for sure. That last pic was from the summit of Mt Avalon. This one is from Mt Willard, about 650' lower and looking straight down the gut of the notch. Mt Willard is the wall of rock that when coming up 302 northbound you see just before slipping through the notch itself. A short 1.6 mile hike from Crawford Depot with only 900' of elevation gain. Lots of view per mile. I wish I had a good camera with panoramic function to fully get Webster Cliffs on the left and Mts Willey and Field on the right in the pic, but alas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nittany88 Posted December 24, 2012 Share Posted December 24, 2012 Like a general 8-12" across much of VT, locally higher along the spine, and probably more like 5-9" in the shadowed areas of the NEK and western Rutland/Addison Counties. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted December 24, 2012 Share Posted December 24, 2012 Like a general 8-12" across much of VT, locally higher along the spine, and probably more like 5-9" in the shadowed areas of the NEK and western Rutland/Addison Counties. BTV to break its 6"+ drought? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nittany88 Posted December 24, 2012 Share Posted December 24, 2012 BTV to break its 6"+ drought? Yeah think so! If not from the front end, the back end when the flow turns NW should definitely do it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
free_man Posted December 25, 2012 Share Posted December 25, 2012 Another tick NW and NNE is fully in business. schweet Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ctsnowstorm628 Posted December 25, 2012 Share Posted December 25, 2012 Like a general 8-12" across much of VT, locally higher along the spine, and probably more like 5-9" in the shadowed areas of the NEK and western Rutland/Addison Counties. Yeah I went ballsy first off with 14+ for a lot of folks and 8-14" in the NEK. It'll be a nice event though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Organizing Low Posted December 25, 2012 Share Posted December 25, 2012 picked up about 2 or 3 inches of snow with the backlash from the last storm, and mood snow ever since on and off its a nice white christmas. my parents drove down after digging out from 19 inches in ottawa with the last storm. hopefully the upcoming event is the one i have been waiting for since i moved to vermont....a real storm! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ctsnowstorm628 Posted December 25, 2012 Share Posted December 25, 2012 0z GFS says "hold on with your outlandish accumulations, Ed". Looks like a general 8-14", with 6-10" in shadowed regions. Areas north on CON...probably near Dendrite..over toward Cold Front jackpot. 12-18". Maybe eliminate 14"+ in the BTV area, and change it to 8-14"...and add a 6-10" spot in the NEK...14"+ still looks from the Lakes Region over toward ME. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hitman Posted December 25, 2012 Share Posted December 25, 2012 0z GFS says "hold on with your outlandish accumulations, Ed". Looks like a general 8-14", with 6-10" in shadowed regions. Areas north on CON...probably near Dendrite..over toward Cold Front jackpot. 12-18". Maybe eliminate 14"+ in the BTV area, and change it to 8-14"...and add a 6-10" spot in the NEK...14"+ still looks from the Lakes Region over toward ME. Ill take it. So excited. Do we see wind issues thursday or friday? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted December 25, 2012 Share Posted December 25, 2012 Ill take it. So excited. Do we see wind issues thursday or friday? Likely. Thursday especially with strong ESE flow. Not sure how that affects SB but its not our stock NW wind that most of the mountains know how to deal with. I think Friday morning should be breezy but fine. I agree with BTV's forecast even with less QPF... its the backside NW flow high-ratio stuff that'll take us up there. Most folks see 0.01" QPF shading and essentially assume the storm is done, but those two extra panels of the lightest measurable precip can be like 3-6 additional fluffy inches. .SHORT TERM /7 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY/... AS OF 502 AM EST TUESDAY...SHORT-TERM PERIOD BEGINS QUIET...BUT ENDS WITH THE A SIGNIFICANT NOR`EASTER WHICH IS LIKELY TO BRING A HEAVY SNOWFALL TO THE REGION BEGINNING WEDNESDAY NIGHT. A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION FROM THE NORTHWEST TONIGHT AND THRU THE DAY WEDNESDAY BRINGING DRY WEATHER AND SEASONABLY COLD TEMPERATURES TO THE NORTH COUNTRY. AMOUNT OF CLEARING WE SEE TONIGHT IS IN QUESTION...AS SOME MODEL SOUNDINGS INDICATING AN ABUNDANCE OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE OVER THE REGION. HAVE GONE WITH A FORECAST OF PARTLY CLOUDY...AND RAISED TEMPS A FEW DEGREES FROM MOS GUIDANCE NUMBERS. EXPECT LOWS IN THE SINGLE NUMBERS AND TEENS. LOOK FOR A CONTINUATION OF PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES DURING WEDNESDAY...ALTHOUGH AN INCREASE IN CLOUDS CAN BE EXPECTED LATER IN THE DAY. NWP MODELS ALL IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH LOW PRESSURE OVER THE TENNESSEE VALLEY WEDNESDAY REDEVELOPING ALONG MID-ATLANTIC COAST AT 00Z THURSDAY...LIFTING NNEWD ALONG THE NEW JERSEY COAST BY 12Z THURSDAY. STRONG NEGATIVE TILT 500MB WAVE DRAWS SIGNIFICANT MOISTURE NORTHWARD INTO THE FORECAST AREA WITH STRONG SYNOPTIC ASCENT BEGINNING AFTER MIDNIGHT. ONCE SNOW DEVELOPS...IT APPEARS FROM MODEL SOUNDINGS THAT INTENSITY WILL INCREASE QUICKLY WITH SNOW BECOMING HEAVY AT TIMES WITH STRONG UVV AND DENDRITE SNOW GROWTH. HAVE CONTINUED WITH PREVIOUS THINKING OF HEAVY SNOW DEVELOPING LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT...WITH SEVERAL INCHES OF SNOW ON THE GROUND BY DAYBREAK THURSDAY. PERIOD OF HEAVIEST PRECIPITATION CONTINUES THROUGH ABOUT 18Z THURSDAY...THEN BEGINS TO DIMINISH AS SURFACE LOW REACHES GULF OF MAINE BY THURSDAY EVENING. BY NIGHTFALL...EXPECT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS OF 8 TO 13 INCHES ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION. HAVE GONE WITH 12:1-14:1 SNOW RATIO...WHICH IS COMMON FOR THESE TYPES OF SYSTEMS WITH E-SE 850MB FETCH ACROSS THE REGION. ALTHOUGH MOST MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT REGARDING THE STORM TRACK...IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT THE NAM HAS CONTINUED WITH A TRACK A BIT FURTHER WEST...WHICH IF PROVEN CORRECT COULD POSE SOME PROBLEMS. THE RESULT WOULD BE POTENTIALLY STRONG GUSTY WINDS...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE WEST WESTERN SLOPES OF THE GREEN MOUNTAINS. IT WOULD ALSO ALLOW FOR MORE MIXED PRECIPITATION ACROSS MUCH OF VERMONT. THE MIXTURE COMBINED WITH SHADOWING WOULD LIKELY REDUCE SNOW AMOUNTS SIGNIFICANTLY FROM THE GOING FORECAST. SO CONFIDENCE NOT THE GREATEST IN THE FORECAST DETAILS...ESPECIALLY FOR SOUTHERN AND EASTERN VERMONT. IN ANY EVENT THOUGH...IT WILL BE A SIGNIFICANT STORM WITH MAJOR IMPACTS TO THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA. OF NOTE...IT HAS BEEN 658 DAYS SINCE THE LAST 6+" SNOWSTORM AT BTV (3/7/11) AND THIS WILL LIKELY BREAK THAT STREAK. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/... AS OF 350 AM EST TUESDAY...SURFACE LOW PRESSURE WILL BE LOCATED JUST NORTHEAST OF CAPE COD BY 00Z FRIDAY...SHIFTING NORTHEAST INTO THE GULF OF MAINE THROUGH THE NIGHT. THE COMBINATION OF ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND SURFACE/MID-LEVEL WINDS SHIFTING TO THE NORTH/NORTHWEST WILL CREATE A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR CONTINUED MODERATE SNOW ACROSS THE REGION...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE FAVORED UPSLOPE LOCALES ALONG THE WESTERN SLOPES OF THE NORTHERN GREEN MOUNTAINS AND NORTHERN ADIRONDACKS. ADDITIONAL SNOWFALL AMOUNTS OF 2-3" ARE LIKELY THURSDAY NIGHT...WITH STORM TOTALS ACROSS THE REGION LOOKING TO BE IN THE 10-16" RANGE BY FRIDAY MORNING WITH LOCALIZED HIGHER AMOUNTS ACROSS THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
J.Spin Posted December 25, 2012 Share Posted December 25, 2012 I see that PF posted the projected snowfall maps and some discussion text above. I’ve added the advisories map below, which is it’s a fairly simple at this point - just Winter Storm Watches across the entirety of the map area. That's the sign of a large storm. We’ll see how these maps develop over the next couple of days, but it’s looking pretty good for folks doing some skiing for the holiday week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hvysnow79 Posted December 25, 2012 Share Posted December 25, 2012 What a Christmas surprise this morning, we have received 1.4" of fluff and it is still snowing with a temp of 19F. Was thinking just a dusting as we have been on the low end of things last year and half. Merry Christmas everyone!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MarkO Posted December 25, 2012 Share Posted December 25, 2012 anyone have a link to storm total map for NH? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted December 25, 2012 Share Posted December 25, 2012 Man I-89 from Waterbury to Montpelier must be getting hit hard. Montpelier is down to 1/2sm moderate snow now...likely high ratio fluff too. Hitting a brick wall as it moves up here. Flurries at the base of the ski resort and light snow falling at the summit. You can see the virga clearly from up at 3,600ft. Looking out you see the wispy look of snow falling but visibility improves to like 40 miles down below 2,000ft haha. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mreaves Posted December 25, 2012 Share Posted December 25, 2012 Merry Christmas NNE. I can confirm PF's post above, at least for Barre, coming down much harder than anything I expected. Haven't been out to measure yet but the eyeball test says about an inch. I see that the NWS map has MPV down for 10-14, I'll take it! It's been so long since we've had a storm like that, I hope I can remember how to shovel! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allenson Posted December 25, 2012 Share Posted December 25, 2012 Hey dudes--I'm stuck at the inlaws down in dreary Maryland (Pete would be proud) but I like what I see from the webcams near home. Big one coming too. Gonna try to beat it home tomorrow... Merry Christmas, yo. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattlacroix4 Posted December 25, 2012 Share Posted December 25, 2012 What timing for a forecast to be..call it a little off..for my chances of a white Christmas. All models except for the GFS had this moisture drying out before it go to my area. Nice steady snow this morning, with a heavy coating already down. Couldn't of asked for more on Christmas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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