powderfreak Posted December 24, 2012 Share Posted December 24, 2012 HPC is on board in a big way for the 24 hours between 00z Thu and 00z Fri. Basically just under an inch an hour for 24 hours for some places just SE of the mountains. Very light on snow on the coast though, I think it's a goose egg for PSM (which I'm not buying at this point). I would think at least 3-5" before a flip to rain. Does HPC actually issue snowfall amounts? I thought it was just probabilities of reaching 4, 8, 12"? Or you probably have some internal map. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ctsnowstorm628 Posted December 24, 2012 Share Posted December 24, 2012 Thanks bud, You called it days ago when you said we would get hit when you leave......lol Ugh, yeah...screw the meteorology behind this...its simply where Ed goes, it doesn't snow...where Ed leaves, it snows. Been that way for a while But seriously, this is the one you guys have wanted since 2011. Pattern is shaping up nicely so that this probably won't be the only one...as long as its after 1/20 when I return Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted December 24, 2012 Share Posted December 24, 2012 Does HPC actually issue snowfall amounts? I thought it was just probabilities of reaching 4, 8, 12"? Or you probably have some internal map. We have internal maps that are ideally used as a starting point for WFOs to collaborate from. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted December 24, 2012 Share Posted December 24, 2012 Final call. A few minor tweaks using the 12z ECMWF QPF as a blend to what was previously in there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted December 24, 2012 Share Posted December 24, 2012 And now the headline collaboration begins. Who is willing to go with a 5th/6th period watch, who will punt to later shifts. We all know they're coming, it's just a matter of when. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 24, 2012 Author Share Posted December 24, 2012 And now the headline collaboration begins. Who is willing to go with a 5th/6th period watch, who will punt to later shifts. We all know they're coming, it's just a matter of when. I see it usually gets handed off to the next shift a lot, Nobody wants to be bold.........lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted December 24, 2012 Share Posted December 24, 2012 I see it usually gets handed off to the next shift a lot, Nobody wants to be bold.........lol I have no problems pulling the trigger right now. I mean the national directive is 50/50 confidence on 6"+. That's pretty much the entire CWA at this point. I just don't want to create a patchwork national map, that looks bad in the public eye. We'll see if any of my neighbors give the me the opening I need...ha. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 24, 2012 Share Posted December 24, 2012 Save it for the next shift. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 24, 2012 Share Posted December 24, 2012 We feel like we rarely see watches more than 48 hours out. I'd expect most will hoist them tomorrow at some point. But the model consensus is pretty strong for at least CNE/NNE for WSW criteria. I'd think even a chunk of SNE could justify a watch too...esp the two NH counties and north of the pike in MA away from the coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 24, 2012 Author Share Posted December 24, 2012 I have no problems pulling the trigger right now. I mean the national directive is 50/50 confidence on 6"+. That's pretty much the entire CWA at this point. I just don't want to create a patchwork national map, that looks bad in the public eye. We'll see if any of my neighbors give the me the opening I need...ha. I am guessing at this point that you already have collaborated with the CAR office before putting this out Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted December 24, 2012 Share Posted December 24, 2012 We feel like we rarely see watches more than 48 hours out. I'd expect most will hoist them tomorrow at some point. But the model consensus is pretty strong for at least CNE/NNE for WSW criteria. I'd think even a chunk of SNE could justify a watch too...esp the two NH counties and north of the pike in MA away from the coast. 5th period is generally the accepted limit to watch lead time, which would be Wed night right now. So it could be justified. I mean especially considering the holiday travel, a little extra heads up isn't a terrible thing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted December 24, 2012 Share Posted December 24, 2012 I am guessing at this point that you already have collaborated with the CAR office before putting this out CAR is actually an easy neighbor. Since timing is usually 6 hours or so different for them and they border no other WFO, it doesn't look strange if they hold off one extra shift or two for their headlines. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 24, 2012 Author Share Posted December 24, 2012 5th period is generally the accepted limit to watch lead time, which would be Wed night right now. So it could be justified. I mean especially considering the holiday travel, a little extra heads up isn't a terrible thing. Very valid point Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 24, 2012 Author Share Posted December 24, 2012 CAR is actually an easy neighbor. Since timing is usually 6 hours or so different for them and they border no other WFO, it doesn't look strange if they hold off one extra shift or two for their headlines. So is box the other for you? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
teebrdsfan Posted December 24, 2012 Share Posted December 24, 2012 Hello all, first time poster here. Been lurking for awhile but new to the region (since September) so didn't want to jump right in. My name is Eric and I'm in Interior Rockingham Co. (Newmarket). Absolutely love the weather and it's looking like exciting times on the way. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted December 24, 2012 Share Posted December 24, 2012 So is box the other for you? BOX, BTV and one half county border with ALY. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 24, 2012 Share Posted December 24, 2012 So is box the other for you? They have both BOX and BTV bordering them to the west and SW. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 24, 2012 Share Posted December 24, 2012 BOX, BTV and one half county border with ALY. I forgot about Windham county VT being done by ALY. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 24, 2012 Author Share Posted December 24, 2012 BOX, BTV and one half county border with ALY. They have both BOX and BTV bordering them to the west and SW. Yeah, Ok, Well i can see where you could possibly have some issues having 4 WFO to deal with especially if one is slow on the trigger or keeps handing the ball off so to speak to the next shift Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted December 24, 2012 Share Posted December 24, 2012 I forgot about Windham county VT being done by ALY. Usually not much of a collaboration issue there, but it's nice to have another WFO downstream to bounce ideas around with. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 24, 2012 Share Posted December 24, 2012 Usually not much of a collaboration issue there, but it's nice to have another WFO downstream to bounce ideas around with. Yeah definitely. Consensus usually performs the best. I first really got a good handle of that during the '07-'08 winter back on eastern. There would probably be 3 or 4 of us mets talking late through the night wondering what the heck these southwest flow events were going to do. I'm sure Ekster has filled you in on some of those. We all really learned a lot though that winter just by bouncing ideas off eachother and posting all sorts of model data and verification when the time came. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
N. OF PIKE Posted December 24, 2012 Share Posted December 24, 2012 Can anyone post a map of nws btv accums for this storm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 24, 2012 Author Share Posted December 24, 2012 Can anyone post a map of nws btv accums for this storm Not sure there's is out yet to the public Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eyewall Posted December 24, 2012 Share Posted December 24, 2012 I skied Bolton Valley today. Nice powder and packed powder conditions with waist deep natural snow in places near the summit. Some trails had thin cover on the periphery near the bottom which surprised me with recent snows. Anyway looking forward to a decent dump in Williston (if we don't get shadowed too much). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted December 24, 2012 Share Posted December 24, 2012 Can anyone post a map of nws btv accums for this storm They historically won't post one until they issue a watch or advisory or some headline. It'd be an odd move for them to post a snowfall map showing widespread warning criteria snowfall without issuing a watch, so you won't see one till they post a headline and it'll be right on the homepage at the top. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 24, 2012 Author Share Posted December 24, 2012 They historically won't post one until they issue a watch or advisory or some headline. It'd be an odd move for them to post a snowfall map showing widespread warning criteria snowfall without issuing a watch, so you won't see one till they post a headline and it'll be right on the homepage at the top. lol, We got the insiders addition here for us............. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahk_webstah Posted December 24, 2012 Share Posted December 24, 2012 I see the new zones. Chris's opinion (for the weekend) is obviously highly valued! I also really really really like the disappearance of the words sleet freezing and rain from my forecast totally...and the 50% chance of snow Thursday night (lingering?). Awesome. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted December 24, 2012 Share Posted December 24, 2012 lol, We got the insiders addition here for us............. Yeah I don't see what the big secret is, I mean I spell it out in the AFD that was just sent. Why not let a few weenies see the image too. We're really only bound by the pre-release information that could give an advantage to partners over others. This more so applies to headlines and not the forecast values themselves. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted December 24, 2012 Share Posted December 24, 2012 I see the new zones. Chris's opinion (for the weekend) is obviously highly valued! I also really really really like the disappearance of the words sleet freezing and rain from my forecast totally...and the 50% chance of snow Thursday night (lingering?). Awesome. No more mix and a weenie stripe of +SN (essentially where I expect 6 hr QPF to approach 1" per hour snowfall type stuff). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted December 24, 2012 Share Posted December 24, 2012 Yeah I don't see what the big secret is, I mean I spell it out in the AFD that was just sent. Why not let a few weenies see the image too. We're really only bound by the pre-release information that could give an advantage to partners over others. This more so applies to headlines and not the forecast values themselves. NAM has an odd precipitation shield... not sure if its shadowing that it thinks is happening or what. I'm not worried here as east flow is going to get us on the immediate east slope of the Spine, but its just an odd layout with copious, almost ridiculous, amounts of QPF from Syracuse to Montreal and it takes a long time to get snowing in VT/northern NH/mtns of ME. Finally gets a WCB and then it juices up again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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