NEK_VT_Upslope_Event Posted December 24, 2012 Share Posted December 24, 2012 Looking beautiful this AM in peacham, Vermont. 14F with a Fresh coat last night to put 6 or so inches of hard pack bottom, soft whispy top layer. Can't wait for wed pm/thurs, things are looking as locked as they could be for this far out. I hope most of cne and sne sneaks into the plowable stuff as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
klw Posted December 24, 2012 Share Posted December 24, 2012 1.4 inches overnight. Fluff- pure fluff. sunny out but still a few mood flakes falling- someone shook the snow globe. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PWMan Posted December 24, 2012 Share Posted December 24, 2012 Meanwhile, away from upslope-land, I woke up to a few grains of graupel which had fallen overnight. Just hoping to eek out a coating of snow from this wave late tonight and tomorrow, although it looks like interior SNE will "jackpot." Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted December 24, 2012 Share Posted December 24, 2012 This is getting obscene. I could not believe to find another 6.5" overnight at 3,000ft snow board. I've cleared 41" off that thing in the past 8 days. When I take my skis off in the woods up there, the snow is over my waist now. The trees look like snow ghosts with 1-3 foot piles of snow resting on them. It is still snowing fairly hard at times on the mountain this morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted December 24, 2012 Share Posted December 24, 2012 Not bad probs when using the 96 hour panel of the GFS. No shock IZG jackpots. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tamarack Posted December 24, 2012 Share Posted December 24, 2012 That's a dreamy map, even though MBY is "only" in the 50-60% area. 0.1" dusting overnight, and the clouds kept the temp from falling thru the teens. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted December 24, 2012 Share Posted December 24, 2012 New NAM bufkit clocks places like Rutland (since it is farther to the SW the NAM actually captures a good chuck of the precip). A solid 13-14" of snow before 00z Fri. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted December 24, 2012 Share Posted December 24, 2012 That's a dreamy map, even though MBY is "only" in the 50-60% area. 0.1" dusting overnight, and the clouds kept the temp from falling thru the teens. Even taking the domain over New England at 60 hours, we're still talking 30-40% chance of a foot plus. And there must be considerable analog spread in there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ctsnowstorm628 Posted December 24, 2012 Share Posted December 24, 2012 I'm thinking areas southeast of the whites will get hammered...lots of 12+ amounts. Even my snow hole at LSC looks good for 8-12. Don't worry PF and Cold front, I pegged this 3 weeks out. Ill be liquid start to finish here in the tropics. Best of luck! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted December 24, 2012 Share Posted December 24, 2012 I'm thinking areas southeast of the whites will get hammered...lots of 12+ amounts. Even my snow hole at LSC looks good for 8-12. Don't worry PF and Cold front, I pegged this 3 weeks out. Ill be liquid start to finish here in the tropics. Best of luck! Yesterday I was trimming back from the 20" I had in the grids there through Friday. Starting to think that's reasonable for some of the higher peaks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ctsnowstorm628 Posted December 24, 2012 Share Posted December 24, 2012 Yesterday I was trimming back from the 20" I had in the grids there through Friday. Starting to think that's reasonable for some of the higher peaks. Yeah I am honestly thinking 14-18" right now. Looks like a nice set up for a little upslope enhancement. I'm forecasting on Wednesday for VTrans so I am really keeping an eye on this thing. This will really affect all of NNE even to the coast in ME. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
adk Posted December 24, 2012 Share Posted December 24, 2012 I'm not going to say anything: Moar please. (I'm not slutting that turn at ALL). Was up this am. I measured 2 at 1800ft, 3-4 from there to about 3000 and 5-6 around 3000. There has been tremendous wind transport so it's very tough to judge but as you can see...if you know where it is going to end up....well...exactly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted December 24, 2012 Share Posted December 24, 2012 Yeah I am honestly thinking 14-18" right now. Looks like a nice set up for a little upslope enhancement. I'm forecasting on Wednesday for VTrans so I am really keeping an eye on this thing. This will really affect all of NNE even to the coast in ME. Even those areas near the coast that eventually rise above freezing should rip for a big chunk of the storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
adk Posted December 24, 2012 Share Posted December 24, 2012 Yeah I am honestly thinking 14-18" right now. Looks like a nice set up for a little upslope enhancement. I'm forecasting on Wednesday for VTrans so I am really keeping an eye on this thing. This will really affect all of NNE even to the coast in ME. Latest NAM guidance supports pretty big numbers for the mountains...I could see 20+ above 2700 feet or so. ADK could get crushed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattb65 Posted December 24, 2012 Share Posted December 24, 2012 I'm not going to say anything: Moar please. (I'm not slutting that turn at ALL). Was up this am. I measured 2 at 1800ft, 3-4 from there to about 3000 and 5-6 around 3000. There has been tremendous wind transport so it's very tough to judge but as you can see...if you know where it is going to end up....well...exactly. Amazing shot!! I can't imagine what another 1-2ft of synoptic snow on top of all of that is going to look like. NNE skiing is going to be insane for the next week and hopefully more. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
adk Posted December 24, 2012 Share Posted December 24, 2012 Amazing shot!! I can't imagine what another 1-2ft of synoptic snow on top of all of that is going to look like. NNE skiing is going to be insane for the next week and hopefully more. Well it depends. If it's a foot of dense stuff it will not look like that. Sure it will pack a base down but that right there is pure blower. The other concern I have is with this cold air in place and the light snow that fell, a dense wet snow on top of that is going to prime some locations for avalanches. Yes we have them here. And while rarely enough to bury you, they are certainly enough to carry you into a tree pocket and snap a knee, leg, ankle.... so think if you bc travel...at the least, ski cut lines, have a spotter, and think about your bail option. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eekuasepinniW Posted December 24, 2012 Share Posted December 24, 2012 tripyramid has been looking pretty spectacular the past few days. single pyramid mountains can only look on with envy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted December 24, 2012 Share Posted December 24, 2012 tripyramid has been looking pretty spectacular the past few days. single pyramid mountains can only look on with envy. I'm hoping to get my cam permanently mounted at some point when I pull myself out of the breaches of death. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattb65 Posted December 24, 2012 Share Posted December 24, 2012 Well it depends. If it's a foot of dense stuff it will not look like that. Sure it will pack a base down but that right there is pure blower. The other concern I have is with this cold air in place and the light snow that fell, a dense wet snow on top of that is going to prime some locations for avalanches. Yes we have them here. And while rarely enough to bury you, they are certainly enough to carry you into a tree pocket and snap a knee, leg, ankle.... so think if you bc travel...at the least, ski cut lines, have a spotter, and think about your bail option. Good point about the dense synoptic snow on top of the fluff. I'm used to skiing powder out in Utah where it's almost always just fluff, not used to the big snows in the east. I'm hoping the upslope kicks in on the back side of the lows to put some soft stuff on top of the dense snow. Either way conditions look to be great and it seems like all the resorts around Stowe/Sugarbush/etc. should be close to 100% open after this 27th storm. Thanks for the pointers, definitely don't want to get any injuries! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted December 24, 2012 Share Posted December 24, 2012 Latest NAM guidance supports pretty big numbers for the mountains...I could see 20+ above 2700 feet or so. ADK could get crushed. This is one of those storms where I'll forecast lower than you. Maybe I'm just sandbagging but with synoptic storms I usually take a 10:1 of QPF... that would give a 6-12" snowfall here Although I do like having the H85 temp around -10C now on some of these models that have shifted SE. There's going to be a deform band off somewhere up here in the NW portion of the storm. Always happens and is usually NW of where it appears it will be leading in. I will say we don't upslope on SE flow like the Whites, but as this past week has shown for Sugarbush and Stowe (both on east side of Spine), with moist SE flow, the snowfall totals can be surprising while the west side like Smuggs and Bolton catch up once the flow goes NW. I'm just usually amazed at the downsloping on the west slopes into the eastern Champlain Valley in some of these events. BTV has mentioned that shadowing/upslope combo along with strong downslope winds in the usual suspect spots on the west side. I saw on the news yesterday there are still like 40 power poles down in Middlebury/Ripton area from that Friday storm when winds were exceeding hurricane force downsloping off Sugarbush's ridgeline. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
j24vt Posted December 24, 2012 Share Posted December 24, 2012 0.5" fell last night. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted December 24, 2012 Share Posted December 24, 2012 Going to light the fuse and run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eekuasepinniW Posted December 24, 2012 Share Posted December 24, 2012 Going to light the fuse and run. Looks like I better put up the extra roof brace for the greenhouse. I've really enjoyed your posts lately, btw. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted December 24, 2012 Share Posted December 24, 2012 Going to light the fuse and run. Will you be checking in while on the beach? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted December 24, 2012 Share Posted December 24, 2012 Will you be checking in while on the beach? Going to be hard not to. Talk about If nothing I'm going to be itching to know how my forecast verifies. It's a pretty bold call, but I like what I'm seeing, and in reality that map looks very similar to the one I created in house 3 days ago. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted December 24, 2012 Share Posted December 24, 2012 Loving that map. Too bad I'll be working all week. Would be nice to hit the ME house. I may have my revenge at the end of the week though. :fingers-crossed: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 24, 2012 Author Share Posted December 24, 2012 Going to light the fuse and run. Nice!! Enjoy the Vaca Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ctsnowstorm628 Posted December 24, 2012 Share Posted December 24, 2012 DAMN! Nice guys! Current thinking for NNE...figured I'd chime in since OceanStWx is only for GYX 14"+ for a lot of northern VT. Probably 10-14" for most of the southern NEK due to shadowing. 8-12" for areas just downwind of the Whites..aka Littleton, NH etc. 14"+ for a lot of eastern NH and SW ME. 10-14" just off ME coast. 6-10" right on the ME coast. Hell yeah guys take pics! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted December 24, 2012 Share Posted December 24, 2012 DAMN! Nice guys! Current thinking for NNE...figured I'd chime in since OceanStWx is only for GYX 14"+ for a lot of northern VT. Probably 10-14" for most of the southern NEK due to shadowing. 8-12" for areas just downwind of the Whites..aka Littleton, NH etc. 14"+ for a lot of eastern NH and SW ME. 10-14" just off ME coast. 6-10" right on the ME coast. Hell yeah guys take pics! HPC is on board in a big way for the 24 hours between 00z Thu and 00z Fri. Basically just under an inch an hour for 24 hours for some places just SE of the mountains. Very light on snow on the coast though, I think it's a goose egg for PSM (which I'm not buying at this point). I would think at least 3-5" before a flip to rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 24, 2012 Author Share Posted December 24, 2012 DAMN! Nice guys! Current thinking for NNE...figured I'd chime in since OceanStWx is only for GYX 14"+ for a lot of northern VT. Probably 10-14" for most of the southern NEK due to shadowing. 8-12" for areas just downwind of the Whites..aka Littleton, NH etc. 14"+ for a lot of eastern NH and SW ME. 10-14" just off ME coast. 6-10" right on the ME coast. Hell yeah guys take pics! Thanks bud, You called it days ago when you said we would get hit when you leave......lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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