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NNE Winter Thread II


dryslot

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Happens during most of these events... more than expected on immediate west slopes...Jeffersonville/Underhill/West Bolton north to Fletcher and eastern Franklin county.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...QUICK UPDATE TO UPGRADE THE WINTER

WEATHER ADVISORY FOR EASTERN FRANKLIN...EASTERN ADDISON AND

EASTERN CHITTENDEN COUNTIES IN VERMONT TO A WINTER STORM WARNING

THROUGH 7 AM SUNDAY. RADAR CONTINUES TO SHOW LOCAL ENHANCEMENT

ALONG THE WESTERN SLOPE OF THE GREEN MOUNTAINS. WE HAVE ALSO

RECEIVED REPORTS OF UP TO 8 INCHES OF SNOW ACCUMULATION IN THE

WARNING AREA. AN ADDITIONAL COUPLE OF INCHES WILL BE POSSIBLE IN

THESE AREAS...WITH A TOTAL SNOW ACCUMULATION OF 5 TO 10 INCHES.

BLOWING AND DRIFTING OF SNOW REDUCING VISIBILITIES UNDER 1 MILE

WILL ALSO BE A CONCERN. OTHERWISE...HAVE MADE NO OTHER CHANGES.

Not too much difference between the western slopes and east of the spine. Likely because it was largely unblocked flow. This doesn't have the high reports in eastern Franklin County. But there really wasn't too much along the western slopes in Chittenden County.

snowfall_122312.png

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Not too much difference between the western slopes and east of the spine. Likely because it was largely unblocked flow. This doesn't have the high reports in eastern Franklin County. But there really wasn't too much along the western slopes in Chittenden County.

Interesting... I saw some report of Jeffersonville with 9" last night, with about half that in Stowe, so I just figured they all got hit hard (especially with the warning layout). I know Lamoille County is a tough one for warning/advisory because sometimes its the tale of two sides where Jeffersonville/Cambridge/Sterling/west Stowe are getting hit hard, while Morrisville, Elmore, Hyde Park, Stowe east of RT 100, etc are not at all.

I still find the upslope fascinating because it appears that even the radar can't really detect it that well. I'm not sure if its because the strong WNW winds are blowing it way downstream, but yesterday evening, all scans I can see on wunderground (and composite) were showing the heaviest echos west of the county lines. The 1.5 degree scan is usually good at showing where it is, and it looked like Jonesville/Huntington/West Bolton corridor was getting hit hard.

Like was discussed last night... we've gotten hit hard on the east side when sometimes there are only scattered light echos over us, while other times, there could be decent echos overhead and nothing is happening.

I just feel bad for the folks in Burlington... I lived there for 6 years and can feel their pain. That city isn't the same in the winter when there's no snow on the ground. Church Street in the snow with the holiday lights is about as Currier and Ives as it gets. Hopefully the synoptic storm later this week works out to put down some holiday cheer in the city.

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Looking at the CoCoRAHS reports, you can see J.Spin's little amazing snow globe spot with 9.3" of new snow...2-3 times as much as anyone else around there east or west. With these long duration fluffy snowfalls where you are clearing 2-3" every 6 hours and adding them together, I really wonder how much difference that makes vs someone who just measures the fluff once every 24 hours. Because as J.Spin mentioned in his last report, it was snowing moderately but couldn't out-pace the settling that was occurring... but then you clear that and start over every 6 hours. That stuff fascinates me.

J.Spin, I'd be curious to see if you put a board down and just measured once the snow stopped, and compared that to what you get clearing and measuring every 6 hours. Your area does get an impressive amount of snow, though... I cleared the 1,550ft snow board once during the event (2.5" and 6.0" for 8.5" total) and 1,000ft lower in the Winooski Valley still got more than that.

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Interesting... I saw some report of Jeffersonville with 9" last night, with about half that in Stowe, so I just figured they all got hit hard (especially with the warning layout). I know Lamoille County is a tough one for warning/advisory because sometimes its the tale of two sides where Jeffersonville/Cambridge/Sterling/west Stowe are getting hit hard, while Morrisville, Elmore, Hyde Park, Stowe east of RT 100, etc are not at all.

I still find the upslope fascinating because it appears that even the radar can't really detect it that well. I'm not sure if its because the strong WNW winds are blowing it way downstream, but yesterday evening, all scans I can see on wunderground (and composite) were showing the heaviest echos west of the county lines. The 1.5 degree scan is usually good at showing where it is, and it looked like Jonesville/Huntington/West Bolton corridor was getting hit hard.

Like was discussed last night... we've gotten hit hard on the east side when sometimes there are only scattered light echos over us, while other times, there could be decent echos overhead and nothing is happening.

I just feel bad for the folks in Burlington... I lived there for 6 years and can feel their pain. That city isn't the same in the winter when there's no snow on the ground. Church Street in the snow with the holiday lights is about as Currier and Ives as it gets. Hopefully the synoptic storm later this week works out to put down some holiday cheer in the city.

A lot of times with orographic snow events, its just that the echoes are just being beam-blocked by the mountain chain and you simply can't see it. I only ended up with 2.5" in Jonesville. Of course in a true blocked upslope event, there really are no echoes making it over to the other side.

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sounds like the guys at the BTV office may be getting cautiously excited. another round of snow on tap perhaps... only 72 hours out now.

LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM

... THE PRIMARY LOW TRACKING JUST INSIDE THE NEW ENGLAND

COAST. THE LOW WILL BE RIGHT NEAR NYC BY 12Z THURSDAY...AND

PORTLAND MAINE BY 00Z FRIDAY. A TRACK JUST OFF THE COAST IS A

MORE IDEAL TRACK FOR A NICE SNOWSTORM FOR VERMONT AND NORTHERN

NEW YORK...THOUGH STILL EXPECT MOSTLY SNOW WITH THIS STORM. THERE

WILL BE SOME WARM AIR IN THE MID LEVELS...AND PROBABLY JUST

ENOUGH FOR A BIT OF SLEET TO MIX IN AND HAVE INDICATED THIS IN

THE GRIDS. HAVE MENTIONED LIKELY POPS FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND

THURSDAY ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY...WITH SOME CATEGORICAL POPS

ACROSS OUR MOST SOUTHERN ZONES. LARGE SCALE SYSTEM WILL HAVE

WRAPAROUND PRECIPITATION CONTINUE INTO FRIDAY...ESPECIALLY ACROSS

THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS AND NORTHWEST FACING SLOPES OF VERMONT AND

NORTHERN NEW YORK. THOUGH THERE IS STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY...RIGHT

NOW LOOKS LIKE STORM TOTAL QPF WILL RANGE FROM AROUND THREE

QUARTERS OF AN INCH TO ABOUT AN INCH AND A HALF OF LIQUID

EQUIVALENT. THIS COULD BE OUR FIRST BIG SNOWSTORM IN A

WHILE...WITH STORM TOTALS OVER A FOOT IN SOME LOCATIONS. WILL

HAVE TO CONTINUE TO MONITOR NEW MODEL DATA AS IT BECOMES

AVAILABLE AND WE GET CLOSER TO WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY.

MODELS ARE ALSO SHOWING POSSIBILITY FOR ANOTHER LOW TRACKING NEAR

THE COAST FOR THE SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY TIMEFRAME. TEMPERATURES

START OUT ABOVE NORMAL DURING THE EXTENDED PORTION OF THE

FORECAST...BUT TREND COLDER TOWARDS THE END OF THE PERIOD

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A lot of times with orographic snow events, its just that the echoes are just being beam-blocked by the mountain chain and you simply can't see it. I only ended up with 2.5" in Jonesville. Of course in a true blocked upslope event, there really are no echoes making it over to the other side.

Gotta be tough forecasting and a lot of reliance on ground truth... there are never really that strong of echos on radar over us (presumably blocked by Mansfield and company) but sometimes its precipitating hard while other times the lack of echos is right and nothing is happening, lol.

I guess it makes sense as the radar beam continues to rise as it passes the Greens... I wonder what the lowest elevation overhead here that the beam can see once it clears the Spine...gotta be like 6,000ft or so by the time it gets 5 miles east given Mansfield's 4,000ft ridgeline?

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A good bit of moisture streaming in all the sudden. I was just out with the dog and there's 0.3-0.5" of the fluffiest snow you'll ever see. Snow has been very light but flakes have been huge so its hard to measure since its so lumpy...each flake adds a tenth or two, lol. Can clearly see the measuring surface under the fluff, too... if we have these ratios with H85 temps perfect around -10C, I could see some decent light accums (thinking 1-3" right now) with extremely light liquid equiv.

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Gotta be tough forecasting and a lot of reliance on ground truth... there are never really that strong of echos on radar over us (presumably blocked by Mansfield and company) but sometimes its precipitating hard while other times the lack of echos is right and nothing is happening, lol.

I guess it makes sense as the radar beam continues to rise as it passes the Greens... I wonder what the lowest elevation overhead here that the beam can see once it clears the Spine...gotta be like 6,000ft or so by the time it gets 5 miles east given Mansfield's 4,000ft ridgeline?

2.4 degrees is really right at or just above ridgeline, so 3.4 degrees should be uncontaminated. But by the time that reaches eastern Lamoille County, you're already at 12K feet. And in a lot of winter-time situations, much of the precip is certainly below this level. I like the 1.5 degree scan for the CPV and western slopes. And really no scan works in winter in a lot of eastern areas lol.

A good bit of moisture streaming in all the sudden. I was just out with the dog and there's 0.3-0.5" of the fluffiest snow you'll ever see. Snow has been very light but flakes have been huge so its hard to measure since its so lumpy...each flake adds a tenth or two, lol. Can clearly see the measuring surface under the fluff, too... if we have these ratios with H85 temps perfect around -10C, I could see some decent light accums (thinking 1-3" right now) with extremely light liquid equiv.

Agree, especially Western Slopes.

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2.4 degrees is really right at or just above ridgeline, so 3.4 degrees should be uncontaminated. But by the time that reaches eastern Lamoille County, you're already at 12K feet. And in a lot of winter-time situations, much of the precip is certainly below this level. I like the 1.5 degree scan for the CPV and western slopes. And really no scan works in winter in a lot of eastern areas lol.

Agree, especially Western Slopes.

Cool thanks for the info!

Here's the 2.4 degree scan... we are getting steady light snow. Haven't been outside in a little bit but its coming down pretty nicely at times. MVL at 1.25 mile vis and that sounds about right.

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A good bit of moisture streaming in all the sudden. I was just out with the dog and there's 0.3-0.5" of the fluffiest snow you'll ever see. Snow has been very light but flakes have been huge so its hard to measure since its so lumpy...each flake adds a tenth or two, lol. Can clearly see the measuring surface under the fluff, too... if we have these ratios with H85 temps perfect around -10C, I could see some decent light accums (thinking 1-3" right now) with extremely light liquid equiv.

I love these type of events. A nice gentle light to moderate snowfall for hours on end. It really makes everything look brighter and fresher.

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In other "beating a dead horse" news... the Mansfield Co-Op has recorded 7 inches of new snow in the last 48 hours, while the snow depth has increased by 20 inches.

DAILY HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL DATA
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
523 PM EST FRI DEC 21 2012
STATION		    PRECIP   TEMPERATURE   PRESENT		 SNOW
			   24 HRS   MAX MIN CUR   WEATHER	 NEW TOTAL SWE
...VERMONT...
MOUNT MANSFIELD	 0.79    31  18  31			    1.5  22

DAILY HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL DATA
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
800 PM EST SAT DEC 22 2012
STATION		    PRECIP   TEMPERATURE   PRESENT		 SNOW
			   24 HRS   MAX MIN CUR   WEATHER	 NEW TOTAL SWE
...VERMONT...
MOUNT MANSFIELD	 0.35    31   7   7			    2.0  28

DAILY HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL DATA
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
638 PM EST SUN DEC 23 2012
STATION		    PRECIP   TEMPERATURE   PRESENT		 SNOW
			   24 HRS   MAX MIN CUR   WEATHER	 NEW TOTAL SWE
...VERMONT...
MOUNT MANSFIELD	 0.35    10   2  10			    5.0  42

This snow depth is noteworthy because historically 40 inches or more at the stake is when natural snow ski terrain is "good" and even some woods skiing becomes possible. Of course each winter is different, but once 40"+ depth hits at that long-running stake, that's when the old timers really consider the skiing to start getting good.

And right on time, today was the first day patrol opened most of the steep, natural snow terrain. Funny how that works as we are all the sudden about 80-90% open today, and the stake reading comes in over 40". Maybe the old timers are on to something...

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Event totals: 0.1” Snow/Trace L.E.

A final tenth of an inch of snow accumulated on the snowboard this morning after the 6:00 A.M. clearing, which brought the total for the recent event to 11.7”. That was it for precipitation this morning, and the sun was even peeking out here and there for a bit, but by midday that weak upper level disturbance was making its way into the area. We were up on the mountain at the time, and once snow broke out it persisted for the rest of the day with some beautiful dendrites. It was typically light with a couple bouts of moderate, but it was fantastic mood snow and it looks like the mountain picked up another inch of fluff to top off the rest of the Champlain Powder™ - and indeed it was, that was some extremely high quality snow that we got last night. The skiing was fantastic, with temperatures in the 20s F, minimal wind, and those flakes all afternoon to finish the scene. I generally found 12-14” around the mountain after settling, with a shot below of a measurement I took at the 2,800’ level:

23DEC12B.jpg

Just add skis and you get the following:

23DEC12A.jpg

We’ve picked up another 0.9” on the snowboard tonight, and it looks like there’s a decent feed of moisture into the area based on the radar:

23DEC12A.gif

With that addition, December snowfall here has reached a respectable 21.3”, and this December has now pulled out of last place for monthly snowfall by passing December 2006 (where there was just 20.2” for the entire month). We’re about halfway to average December snowfall now, so with more potential storms in the pipe, this month has a chance to end up with a respectable total. The point forecast suggests four rounds of snow in the near future, a little tonight with the weak upper level disturbance, another one of those Christmas Even into Christmas day, and then potentially larger storms Wednesday/Thursday and Saturday/Sunday.

Speaking of respectable, I just saw that the Mt. Mansfield Stake came in at 42” today (I see Powderfreak mentioned it above), and indeed this past event has pushed the snowpack up to and now beyond average. The snowpack plot shows one heck of a catching up spike on it:

23DEC12C.jpg

Details from the 4:00 P.M. Waterbury observations:

New Snow: 0.1 inches

New Liquid: Trace

Temperature: 27.9 F

Sky: Light Snow (1-7 mm flakes)

Snow at the stake: 6.0 inches

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Looking at the CoCoRAHS reports, you can see J.Spin's little amazing snow globe spot with 9.3" of new snow...2-3 times as much as anyone else around there east or west. With these long duration fluffy snowfalls where you are clearing 2-3" every 6 hours and adding them together, I really wonder how much difference that makes vs someone who just measures the fluff once every 24 hours. Because as J.Spin mentioned in his last report, it was snowing moderately but couldn't out-pace the settling that was occurring... but then you clear that and start over every 6 hours. That stuff fascinates me.

J.Spin, I'd be curious to see if you put a board down and just measured once the snow stopped, and compared that to what you get clearing and measuring every 6 hours. Your area does get an impressive amount of snow, though... I cleared the 1,550ft snow board once during the event (2.5" and 6.0" for 8.5" total) and 1,000ft lower in the Winooski Valley still got more than that.

For this one PF, based on the reading at the snow stake in the yard this morning, I think a 24-hour measurement would only have given a depth of 6 to 7 inches vs. the 9.3”. This stuff came in at 2 to 3% H2O, and snow that dry settles like mad. And actually, this set of observations wasn’t even from six-hour intervals because of skiing, a Christmas party, etc. The first 1.3” of snow was a seven hour collection from a 6:00 A.M. to 1:00 P.M., the next 5.9” was a nine hour collection from 1:00 P.M. to 10:00 P.M., and the final 2.1” was an eight hour collection from 10:00 P.M. to 6:00 A.M. The total probably would have been even a bit higher with six-hour intervals. There’s no doubt that this was a hot spot for snowfall with this event though – we didn’t travel any farther east than this point yesterday, but to the west we went all the way out to Mills Point on Lake Champlain and back during a prime part of the event, and the snowfall here was clearly the most intense. Even today as we drove to Bolton Valley, you could see that the east end of Bolton Flats (just a couple of miles from here) has only a couple of inches of snow on the ground with grass poking through. I’m assuming the snowfall fell off pretty quickly to the east as well based on the CoCoRaHS reports, so even with a report of 6 or 7 inches this area would have stood out on the snowfall maps with this event. We’ve had all this snow and I’ve yet to run the snow thrower through the driveway or even touch a shovel. We just drive the cars right through the snow because it dissolves like cotton candy. I haven’t even messed with the berm that the town plow makes at the end of the driveway; we can just drive right through that as well. It doesn’t substantiate the snowpack too much, but it sure is the stuff of skier’s dreams. Utah’s got nothing on this upslope fluff - Champlain Powder™ all the way.

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Event totals: 1.6” Snow/0.07” L.E.

The upslope snow in the snowpack is still settling, today’s snow basically just allowed it to hold pat in the 6 to 8-inch range. The snowfall had tapered off at observations time, but there’s been a resurgence recently so there may be a bit more to record in the morning

Details from the 10:00 P.M. Waterbury observations:

New Snow: 1.5 inches

New Liquid: 0.07 inches

Snow/Water Ratio: 21.4

Snow Density: 4.7% H2O

Temperature: 28.4 F

Sky: Flurries

Snow at the stake: 6.0 inches

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J. Spin-

so you've measured 11.7" thru the 21st, then another 1.0" through today, and your stake is measuring 6.0"? is that correct? all settling of pure fluff, then. gravity does crazy things to snow. like to hear the consistency of your pack.

hard to believe that, after this week, you're only about 1/2 your december average- but the numbers don't lie. looking at the stake's numbers tells the story about elevation- the Greens got a way of making snow that's hard to believe. it always feels like i'm telling a fisherman's story about the magnitude of snow in the northern greens to people that have not experienced the prolific green mountain snowfall machine. hehehe....

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It’s been tough to track these individual storm cycle snowfall totals with the multiple events, front and back end accumulations, etc., but I did a quick check this evening and for those Vermont ski areas that post 7-day totals, I’ve listed them from north to south below:

Jay Peak: 30”

Stowe: 34”

Bolton Valley: 30”

Killington: 22”

Stratton: 12”

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J. Spin-

so you've measured 11.7" thru the 21st, then another 1.0" through today, and your stake is measuring 6.0"? is that correct? all settling of pure fluff, then. gravity does crazy things to snow. like to hear the consistency of your pack.

Indeed, snow at the stake is sitting at 6.0”, even after all this snowfall. The snow in the stake area got hit a bit harder with the rains, so there’s a lot of the yard in the 8-inch range, but I go with what accumulates right at my traditional stake spot because it’s generally a good average representation come springtime. I’ve wanted to take core of the snowpack to see where it’s at, so this prompted to run out back and do it, and I got 0.69” of liquid. That’s in the 10 to 1 range bolstered by the crusty inch or two on the bottom, so there’s certainly more settling possible.

hard to believe that, after this week, you're only about 1/2 your december average- but the numbers don't lie. looking at the stake's numbers tells the story about elevation- the Greens got a way of making snow that's hard to believe. it always feels like i'm telling a fisherman's story about the magnitude of snow in the northern greens to people that have not experienced the prolific green mountain snowfall machine. hehehe....

Yeah, calculated December snowfall average here is 41.6 ± 18.2” (S.D.) based on my data since 2006. It was hard to imagine even an average month with the way the first half of this December went, but if we stick in a pattern like this for the last week of December, and maybe catch a couple more significant events, I could see things getting close to that range. That would be quite a recovery after only 2.2” of snow for the entire first half of the month. Speaking of this pattern, it’s snowing pretty nicely out there with another 0.4” on the snowboard, so the beat goes on in that respect. You’ll sometimes hear Powderfreak talk about how living here is like living in a snow globe, and that analogy is especially descriptive during these periods. The Northern Greens are the site of an impressive collision of weather and geography.

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For this one PF, based on the reading at the snow stake in the yard this morning, I think a 24-hour measurement would only have given a depth of 6 to 7 inches vs. the 9.3”. This stuff came in at 2 to 3% H2O, and snow that dry settles like mad. And actually, this set of observations wasn’t even from six-hour intervals because of skiing, a Christmas party, etc. The first 1.3” of snow was a seven hour collection from a 6:00 A.M. to 1:00 P.M., the next 5.9” was a nine hour collection from 1:00 P.M. to 10:00 P.M., and the final 2.1” was an eight hour collection from 10:00 P.M. to 6:00 A.M. The total probably would have been even a bit higher with six-hour intervals. There’s no doubt that this was a hot spot for snowfall with this event though – we didn’t travel any farther east than this point yesterday, but to the west we went all the way out to Mills Point on Lake Champlain and back during a prime part of the event, and the snowfall here was clearly the most intense. Even today as we drove to Bolton Valley, you could see that the east end of Bolton Flats (just a couple of miles from here) has only a couple of inches of snow on the ground with grass poking through. I’m assuming the snowfall fell off pretty quickly to the east as well based on the CoCoRaHS reports, so even with a report of 6 or 7 inches this area would have stood out on the snowfall maps with this event. We’ve had all this snow and I’ve yet to run the snow thrower through the driveway or even touch a shovel. We just drive the cars right through the snow because it dissolves like cotton candy.

That all sounds right to me... I was thinking 6-7 inches and sometimes look at your change in snow depth when not much is on the ground to get a sense for the full storm settled snowfall.

The CoCoRAHS map I like is the precipitation one that shows the liquid. Your area had 0.3" QPF when spots just to your west were all in the 0.1-0.15" range. And back here in Stowe Village the CoCoRAHS guy had 0.18". Gotta expect a little error either way, but for the most part, you had an additional 0.2" from the west side, and another 0.1" liquid from the east side. With 20-30:1 ratios, that would make sense that you would have around 7" out of 0.3" while here in Stowe we had 4-5" out of roughly 0.2" liquid. Maybe with diligent clearing this area could have gotten up to around 6" vs your 9".

I always think the numbers make sense when you look at it from a liquid equiv standpoint.

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Fwiw-kudos to pf, adk and the others who had this upslope event pegged 7 days out.

Merry xmas. Im off to find a stash or 2 under some very special trees.

May not have to look too far. Sb is reporting another 9" last night up top.

Jesus h. I've gotta get up to check my stake. Some groomers thought there was more than 2-3" last night but my assumption was that it was wind blowing snow around that made them think there was more. But there's going to be no where near 9" up here, lol.

They were in the firehose band and with all the snow this week and wind its definitely becoming hard to tell what is what out there. All folks need to know is there is a lot of snow in the Greens all the sudden, haha.

Enjoy the pow. Sun's coming out too.

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Jesus h. I've gotta get up to check my stake. Some groomers thought there was more than 2-3" last night but my assumption was that it was wind blowing snow around that made them think there was more. But there's going to be no where near 9" up here, lol.

They were in the firehose band and with all the snow this week and wind its definitely becoming hard to tell what is what out there. All folks need to know is there is a lot of snow in the Greens all the sudden, haha.

Enjoy the pow. Sun's coming out too.

Yeah, get up and check your stake. What a job you have.

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Event totals: 2.1” Snow/0.08” L.E.

Snow was just flurries at observation time, but it has since resumed with a round of light snow.

Details from the 7:00 A.M. Waterbury observations:

New Snow: 0.5 inches

New Liquid: 0.01 inches

Snow/Water Ratio: 50.0

Snow Density: 2.0% H2O

Temperature: 16.9 F

Sky: Flurries

Snow at the stake: 5.5 inches

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Lets get a solid midday set of runs to ensure everything is still trending/settling in as we wish. Seems with a high over Quebec, snow cover just to our north, and climo....that we wouldn't see a big nw trend but who knows. HPC has had a coastal low for 5 days now...they've never wavered on that, never bought the cutter or runner scenarios. It is nice to have a storm inside 3 days with a big POTENTIAL upside.

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