tmagan Posted December 20, 2012 Share Posted December 20, 2012 I have been harping on Friday's rain event for some time now, with great forcing and dynamics, should be interesting to watch. Who knows, may be the most interesting event in December along with the pea-size hail reports across the area Tuesday. This reminds me of January 19th, 1996, albeit in a weaker version, which wiped out all of the snow from the Blizzard of 1996. NAM KLGA BUFKIT forecast sounding for 12Z December 21st. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted December 20, 2012 Share Posted December 20, 2012 The NAM has very strong winds at 925mb it will be interesting to see if we can get a low topped squall line like the NAM is indicating. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted December 20, 2012 Share Posted December 20, 2012 going to have to fight an inversion like we usually do with these events Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted December 20, 2012 Share Posted December 20, 2012 ^^^^^ Great idea to start a thread for this potential. The models are suggesting strong a wind gust threat ahead of and with a low topped squall line that is forecast to move through the area early Friday morning. The NAM is actually showing 40kt winds at the surface south of LI which has translated to gusts in the 50 to 60 mph range in the past. There should be strong WAA at the surface coupled with steeper mid level lapse rates than we usually see with these set ups. Steeper mid level lapse rates showing up The strong secondary low developing over NE PA near the jet exit region is another indication of the strength of this system. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted December 20, 2012 Share Posted December 20, 2012 looks good for snow showers/squalls saturday with instability on bufkit Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted December 20, 2012 Share Posted December 20, 2012 It's going to be really interesting to see if some of these winds just off the deck can mix down near the coast. Some of those profiles are roaring down to 925mb especially. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dbc Posted December 20, 2012 Share Posted December 20, 2012 It's going to be really interesting to see if some of these winds just off the deck can mix down near the coast. Some of those profiles are roaring down to 925mb especially. Not needed or wanted but it is intriguing nonetheless. Will be interesting to see what mixes down to the surface. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LongBeachSurfFreak Posted December 20, 2012 Share Posted December 20, 2012 It's going to be really interesting to see if some of these winds just off the deck can mix down near the coast. Some of those profiles are roaring down to 925mb especially. What would be sick is if they put a weather station on top of the spire (when its finished) of one world trade!! Imagine the observations at 1776 feet! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted December 20, 2012 Share Posted December 20, 2012 It's going to be really interesting to see if some of these winds just off the deck can mix down near the coast. Some of those profiles are roaring down to 925mb especially. The 15z Fri GFS forecast sounding has 60kt all the way down to 975mb and 44kt at the surface as the LLJ is increasing out toward Eastern Long Island. KMTP slice at 15z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rcad1 Posted December 20, 2012 Share Posted December 20, 2012 Bluewave is that Mainly the East end or for most of the island??? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted December 20, 2012 Share Posted December 20, 2012 Bluewave is that Mainly the East end or for most of the island??? That's the East End, but at 12z is already showing 53kt down to 975 mb over Western Long Island. 12z south of FRG Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted December 20, 2012 Share Posted December 20, 2012 The NAM has an extremely impressive southeast wind inflow towards the NJ Shore and Long Island at 925mb. One would think that the inversion will hold especially inland but I think areas near the coast could see some very strong gusts especially in that band of heavy rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted December 20, 2012 Share Posted December 20, 2012 What would be sick is if they put a weather station on top of the spire (when its finished) of one world trade!! Imagine the observations at 1776 feet! Top of the Empire State Building... can you see the anemometer? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weathergun Posted December 20, 2012 Share Posted December 20, 2012 I see little or no inversions on the soundings at 12z tomorrow. 50-70kt winds at 950mb on both the NAM and GFS. I think NYC and coastal sections could see high wind warning criteria. The GFS winds at 950mb: 12z NAM 950mb winds: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dbc Posted December 20, 2012 Share Posted December 20, 2012 I see little or no inversions on the soundings at 12z tomorrow. 50-70kt winds at 950mb on both the NAM and GFS. I think NYC and coastal sections could see high wind warning criteria. The GFS winds at 950mb: 12z NAM 950mb winds: That is just bad for our region right now. This is probably something most in this area would be happy to do without. Mother Nature doesn't care about us however and this will provide us with some interesting observations. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted December 20, 2012 Share Posted December 20, 2012 I see little or no inversions on the soundings at 12z tomorrow. 50-70kt winds at 950mb on both the NAM and GFS. I think NYC and coastal sections could see high wind warning criteria. The GFS winds at 950mb: 12z NAM 950mb winds: There isn't an inversion, but it is stable. To get good mixing down to the surface you need temperatures to decrease at the dry adiabatic lapse rate from the surface up to the strong winds. We won't have that tomorrow. We DID have that with Sandy, which is why those strong winds made it during the evening. I can see gusts to 50, maybe 55 mph at the coast... I'm skeptical of anything higher. We'll have to watch radar trends, sometimes squalls can bring them down; sometimes not. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted December 20, 2012 Share Posted December 20, 2012 This should look pretty cool on the radar and satellite tomorrow morning: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NYCSuburbs Posted December 20, 2012 Share Posted December 20, 2012 That was strange - Upton had "severe thunderstorm" wording in their forecast just a few minutes ago out of nowhere and literally just now removed it... their discussion though still highlights the strong wind potential with gusts up to 60 knots along with a new wind advisory. WINDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE TONIGHT...WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS EXPECTED ALSO DURING THE EARLY FRIDAY MORNING HOURS. THE LATEST MODEL RUNS BRING A VERY STRONG LLJ THROUGH BETWEEN 09Z AND 15Z...WITH WINDS AROUND 65-75 KTS. IN ADDITION...THE HEAVY RAIN COULD BRING DOWN THE HIGHER WINDS. OCCASIONAL HIGHER GUSTS UP TO 60 KTS MAY BE POSSIBLE WITH THE HEAVIER RAIN BANDS. HAVE ISSUED A WIND ADVISORY FOR COASTAL AREAS OF NY...NJ AND CT WHERE THE STRONGEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST DURING THIS TIME PERIOD. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tmagan Posted December 20, 2012 Author Share Posted December 20, 2012 NAM BUFKIT KLGA forecast sounding for 14Z Friday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weathergun Posted December 20, 2012 Share Posted December 20, 2012 18z NAM and 12z GFS surface wind gusts: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tmagan Posted December 20, 2012 Author Share Posted December 20, 2012 GEM-LAM surface wind, dew point for 12Z Friday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted December 20, 2012 Share Posted December 20, 2012 We seem to do better mixing down stronger winds from aloft here when the low topped squall line coincides with a jet exit region near the area like the forecast for tomorrow. One example of this was the early morning squall line with damaging winds back on 3-5-08. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tmagan Posted December 20, 2012 Author Share Posted December 20, 2012 Also, warmer than normal SST's should aid in the downward transfer along the littoral. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted December 20, 2012 Share Posted December 20, 2012 We've got ourselves a storm system. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted December 21, 2012 Share Posted December 21, 2012 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rcad1 Posted December 21, 2012 Share Posted December 21, 2012 Upton just issued a High wind warning from 4am-12pm Tom. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted December 21, 2012 Share Posted December 21, 2012 Things could get real ugly here if any convection makes it through the NYC metro tomorrow. Already experienced a week without power. I think that's enough for one year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psv88 Posted December 21, 2012 Share Posted December 21, 2012 Things could get real ugly here if any convection makes it through the NYC metro tomorrow. Already experienced a week without power. I think that's enough for one year. Agreed...but i think most of the weak trees came down in sandy so we should be fine. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CooL Posted December 21, 2012 Share Posted December 21, 2012 Agreed...but i think most of the weak trees came down in sandy so we should be fine. Yeah but Sandy probly weakened a lot more. HWW for 60mph gusts. Should be a fun morning Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted December 21, 2012 Share Posted December 21, 2012 rain picking up here and soon should the wind. i wouldnt doubt a moderate amount of power outages Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.