tombo82685 Posted December 21, 2012 Share Posted December 21, 2012 hr 144 2ndry forming over se va...starts as snow in phl at hr 138 then goes over to rain at hr 144...nw burbs snow at hr 138 that goes to ice at hr 144 as well as lehigh valley Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted December 21, 2012 Share Posted December 21, 2012 hr 150 sub 996 low over delmarva...rain for everyone...ice in pocs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NaoPos Posted December 21, 2012 Share Posted December 21, 2012 150, 996 over Delmarva,...running coast inland rigt now. heavy cold rain for coastal plain from allentown-NYC S&E Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted December 21, 2012 Share Posted December 21, 2012 hr 156 has sub 996 low just east of acy...rain is starting to die down, as well as the ice in the pocs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NaoPos Posted December 21, 2012 Share Posted December 21, 2012 weird h5 progression.... went a different, more amp'd solution @ h5, but primary SLP ended up almost exactly like 12z.. but then the 0z transfers (takes its time)... something the less amp'd 12z didnt do. by 150, h5 matched up. But you can see differences as the SW leaves the 4 corners region. looks like the ENS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted December 21, 2012 Share Posted December 21, 2012 hr 162 992 low over nyc...we are dry slotted all the precip is to our north and east...good thing you can take out of this is that the euro shifted east...all the models now show a 2ndry forming somewhere between delmarva and se va...the timing and location of the transfer is crucial Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted December 21, 2012 Share Posted December 21, 2012 weird h5 progression.... went a different, more amp'd solution @ h5, but primary SLP ended up almost exactly like 12z.. but then the 0z transfers (takes its time)... something the less amp'd 12z didnt do. by 150, h5 matched up. But you can see differences as the SW leaves the 4 corners region. looks like the ENS you can def see why it transfered..better high position which is blocked in by better confluence and 50/50 low. It flattens the hgt line sout. Whereas 12z didn't have that at all. Even though it was amplifed more, it basically hit a brick wall. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted December 21, 2012 Share Posted December 21, 2012 tick tick every 12 hours the euro op goes east the beat goes on, let's hope it doesnt go out to sea there is plenty of time left Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NaoPos Posted December 21, 2012 Share Posted December 21, 2012 you can def see why it transfered..better high position which is blocked in by better confluence and 50/50 low. It flattens the hgt line sout. Whereas 12z didn't have that at all. Even though it was amplifed more, it basically hit a brick wall. yeah, def. Hopefully we can get that primary to head towards western/central NC a bit and transfer off the coast :-)...BUt at least we're getting away from the Cutter idea but with ray being home....................i wont say more after that. ps. nice job on the PBP.. sure sign of a pattern change! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted December 21, 2012 Share Posted December 21, 2012 yeah, def. Hopefully we can get that primary to head towards western/central NC a bit and transfer off the coast :-)...BUt at least we're getting away from the Cutter idea but with ray being home....................i wont say more after that. ps. nice job on the PBP.. sure sign of a pattern change! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thunder Road Posted December 21, 2012 Share Posted December 21, 2012 fwiw, off the 0z GFS (in no particular order) KABE - 0.87" - 0.47" snow, 0.20" sleet, then another 0.20" snow KPNE - 0.99" - 0.36" IP/ZR mix, 0.47" rain but with 2 m temps barely above freezing, 0.16" snow KRDG - 1.20" - 0.44" snow, 0.25" IP/SN mix, 0.09" IP/ZR mix, then another 0.42" snow KMPO - 1.38", all snow but 1000-500 mb thicknesses indicate there might still be a sneaky warm layer somewhere KDYL - 0.84" - 0.06" snow, 0.47" IP/ZR mix, 0.15" sleet, then another 0.16" snow KPHL and points south - take a guess Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Voyager Posted December 21, 2012 Share Posted December 21, 2012 fwiw, off the 0z GFS (in no particular order) KABE - 0.87" - 0.47" snow, 0.20" sleet, then another 0.20" snow KPNE - 0.99" - 0.36" IP/ZR mix, 0.47" rain but with 2 m temps barely above freezing, 0.16" snow KRDG - 1.20" - 0.44" snow, 0.25" IP/SN mix, 0.09" IP/ZR mix, then another 0.42" snow KMPO - 1.38", all snow but 1000-500 mb thicknesses indicate there might still be a sneaky warm layer somewhere KDYL - 0.84" - 0.06" snow, 0.47" IP/ZR mix, 0.15" sleet, then another 0.16" snow KPHL and points south - take a guess I wonder how the GFS comes up with only 0.87" qpf at Allentown while Mount Pocono and Reading show 1.38" and 1.20" respectively... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NaoPos Posted December 21, 2012 Share Posted December 21, 2012 6z GFS runs the apps, doesn't appear to be a transfer..then slides off the coast by LI 0z UKIE: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NaoPos Posted December 21, 2012 Share Posted December 21, 2012 0z Euro Ens kinda looks like the 6z GFS. kinda warm for the coastal plain with that track I would imagine. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
anthonyweather Posted December 21, 2012 Share Posted December 21, 2012 Just checked out accuweathers forecast, they say 3-6" of snow Monday night! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted December 21, 2012 Share Posted December 21, 2012 Just checked out accuweathers forecast, they say 3-6" of snow Monday night! Maybe this isn't the case anymore, but back when I was there, the QPF and snowfall forecast beyond the first two or three days was automated GFS output. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted December 21, 2012 Share Posted December 21, 2012 6z gefs are in good agreement with a primary track to ky but develop the coastal sooner and move it from se va to benchmark track Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
96blizz Posted December 21, 2012 Share Posted December 21, 2012 6z gefs are in good agreement with a primary track to ky but develop the coastal sooner and move it from se va to benchmark track Really strong consistency with the ensembles with this storm --- even going back several days. I imagine the trend of the models 'tightening up' will now begin to take place as we get closer, as it did overnight. It's also promising to see two very consistent runs of the GFS Op after runs all over the place. This storm has really taught me a lot thus far and, most of the time, it's really just reading what the pros and truly informed put out there. I think the best time for the amateur to learn (and, pretty much stay quiet) is during pattern changes because there are so many players to watch with each run. Good stuff and thank you. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chubbs Posted December 21, 2012 Share Posted December 21, 2012 6z gefs are in good agreement with a primary track to ky but develop the coastal sooner and move it from se va to benchmark track The best the individual GEFS members have looked at e-wall for this event. A number of snow hits or snow/rain near misses. Good signal for strong confluence. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Boch23 Posted December 21, 2012 Share Posted December 21, 2012 Is it possible we have another Christmas miracle with the models again? Maybe my family would believe me this time around. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chubbs Posted December 21, 2012 Share Posted December 21, 2012 GFS has strong primary to Kentucky but also better CAD in MA Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thunder Road Posted December 21, 2012 Share Posted December 21, 2012 In case the other models are softening your weenie, here's the 0z FIM to perk them back up: http://fim.noaa.gov/...main=236&wjet=1 0.20"-0.40" of snow on Christmas Day, then 0.75"-1.50" all snow along and N&W of 95. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chubbs Posted December 21, 2012 Share Posted December 21, 2012 Pops secondary a little too late for this area. snow to ice/rain near phl. Good hit to N+W Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted December 21, 2012 Share Posted December 21, 2012 we seem to be narrowing that one down to a miller B with all the usual problems of how far north the primary gets and where secondary development takes place. I hate those storms lol, could very well be a nail biter bobbing a little north and south of this track every run the next five days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chubbs Posted December 21, 2012 Share Posted December 21, 2012 GFS starting to develop some consistency. 12z a little colder than 00/06 with better CAD. Could be primarily frozen in NW suburbs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
thedude11 Posted December 21, 2012 Share Posted December 21, 2012 Going to be an interesting next few days to see how the models trend on the development of the secondary off the coast... Even the slightest changes in timing, positioning, development will result in some major differences inland - especially considering the nature of Miller B storms. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fishinfool Posted December 21, 2012 Share Posted December 21, 2012 Going to be an interesting next few days to see how the models trend on the development of the secondary off the coast... Even the slightest changes in timing, positioning, development will result in some major differences inland - especially considering the nature of Miller B storms. typically becomes a real time forecasting event of where the transfer takes place and how far N/S it is... Im sure all are hoping for a more southern track to the delmarva area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chubbs Posted December 21, 2012 Share Posted December 21, 2012 Going to be an interesting next few days to see how the models trend on the development of the secondary off the coast... Even the slightest changes in timing, positioning, development will result in some major differences inland - especially considering the nature of Miller B storms. Agree. We still have a long way to go. Nothing is set in stone. All we can say is odds are currently better to the N+W Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted December 21, 2012 Share Posted December 21, 2012 UK http://meteocentre.c...&fixhh=1&hh=120 http://meteocentre.c...&fixhh=1&hh=144 Ggem http://meteocentre.com/models/explorateur.php?lang=en&map=na&run=12&mod=gemglb&stn=PNMPR&comp=1&run2=12&mod2=gemglb&stn2=PNMPR&hh2=000&fixhh=1&hh=144 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted December 21, 2012 Share Posted December 21, 2012 and the GEFS is a solid snowstorm I95 north and west i like the look of that uk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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