NaoPos Posted December 21, 2012 Share Posted December 21, 2012 0z gfs is basically the 12z euro ens, but the primary dies faster. yea. euro never transfers, and bombs the storm due N-NNW into Buffalo. GFS transfers about 6 hrs too late to keep philly jack potted. the differences between the 0z and 18z GFS are laughable. wonder if the Xmas wave keeps trending stronger?? lots going on. that XMas clipper is legit, enough cold air to work with assuming the SLP tracks south of us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted December 21, 2012 Share Posted December 21, 2012 We need it to be off the coast like the 18z. The redevelopment isn't going to work. for your backyard, yes...but for people in lehigh valley and susquehanna valley and pocs its fine. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NaoPos Posted December 21, 2012 Share Posted December 21, 2012 We need it to be off the coast like the 18z. The redevelopment isn't going to work. don't be rediculous. Plenty of transfers work out well for interior sections and along 1-95. rule of thumb though is you'd like to primary to die and secondary to pop below your lattitude to have a shot at something decent. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thunder Road Posted December 21, 2012 Share Posted December 21, 2012 Man, if only this was December. Oh wait.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted December 21, 2012 Share Posted December 21, 2012 yea. euro never transfers, and bombs the storm due N-NNW into Buffalo. GFS transfers about 6 hrs too late to keep philly jack potted. the differences between the 0z and 18z GFS are laughable. wonder if the Xmas wave keeps trending stronger?? lots going on. that XMas clipper is legit, enough cold air to work with assuming the SLP tracks south of us. The gfs trended towards the euro at h5 for post christmas. It splits the pv and drops it like the euro does. Though, the gfs is later doing this. Also, if that christmas wave doesn't take that track this storm would of been all rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RowanBrandon Posted December 21, 2012 Share Posted December 21, 2012 don't be rediculous. Plenty of transfers work out well for interior sections and along 1-95. rule of thumb though is you'd like to primary to die and secondary to pop below your lattitude to have a shot at something decent. Different locales are rooting for different things. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted December 21, 2012 Share Posted December 21, 2012 sv's snow map off the gfs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted December 21, 2012 Share Posted December 21, 2012 Looks pretty bad for us in the city...I hope at least it stays as is for C PA folks they're due.....I was hoping this run would go out to sea (where we want the GFS usually at this time frame). Wonder how much ice is possible in the city... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ezweather Posted December 21, 2012 Share Posted December 21, 2012 Wow, you can see PA would do very well the 12/27 storm. But, I think the Christmas little storm could be even more interesting. That would be cool to have some snow flying Christmas Eve. Still think the storm could develop a little more offshore, but that maybe a challenge. Still a lot of variables on the table for the upcoming week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted December 21, 2012 Share Posted December 21, 2012 Looks pretty bad for us in the city...I hope at least it stays as is for C PA folks they're due.....I was hoping this run would go out to sea (where we want the GFS usually at this time frame). Wonder how much ice is possible in the city... Per gfs its not much ice at all...take the ptw-ukt-quarryville on north and west stays at or below freezing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chubbs Posted December 21, 2012 Share Posted December 21, 2012 The transfer is soon enough since primary dies in E. Kentucky. However the secondary hugs the coast and brings in warm air off the ocean. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NaoPos Posted December 21, 2012 Share Posted December 21, 2012 The gfs trended towards the euro at h5 for post christmas. It splits the pv and drops it like the euro does. Though, the gfs is later doing this. Also, if that christmas wave doesn't take that track this storm would of been all rain. ehh... 0z GFS went back to its 12z solution, differences in transfer aside. The difference between the GFS, GEFS, ECMENS is that they all transfer. EURO op does not. Its an outlier in that solution as of today's runs. the key is the transfer. but like you mentioned, the xmas eve storm is gona play a role. I also noticed that the xmas /eve vort was sharper and deeper, but quicker as well. That allowed some separation in the shortwaves. That, in return, allowed heights to rise between the 2, and hence, why the 0z GFS goes back to that more amp'd look. lots riding on not only the strength of the xmas sw, but also the speed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NaoPos Posted December 21, 2012 Share Posted December 21, 2012 sv's snow map off the gfs road trip to state college?! lol... i really hope the poconos can cash in and kick start the ski season. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted December 21, 2012 Share Posted December 21, 2012 ehh... 0z GFS went back to its 12z solution, differences in transfer aside. The difference between the GFS, GEFS, ECMENS is that they all transfer. EURO op does not. Its an outlier in that solution as of today's runs. the key is the transfer. but like you mentioned, the xmas eve storm is gona play a role. I also noticed that the xmas /eve vort was sharper and deeper, but quicker as well. That allowed some separation in the shortwaves. That, in return, allowed heights to rise between the 2, and hence, why the 0z GFS goes back to that more amp'd look. lots riding on not only the strength of the xmas sw, but also the speed. The 12z was doing the same as the euro with the pv as is the 0z. It splits it then dives a piece of that into the storm. You can clearly see the differences between the 12z euro and 0z gfs. 1. On the euro the ridge out west is amplified more so than the gfs 2. The gfs has more of an influence from the 50/50 low which suppresses the hgts along the coast. 3. The euro is digging in a piece of the pv that splits more so than the gfs. Its phasing it earlier. If you look at the actual locations of the storms by both models they are right on. The issue then becomes the gfs has a strong 50/50 low which suppresses the hgts which makes the storm 2ndry. While the euro moves that low way north, builds the hgts along the east coast then chuggs the low up the apps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NaoPos Posted December 21, 2012 Share Posted December 21, 2012 but the 12z EUro isn't as strong with the xmas eve shortwave, which even as you have alluded to, dictates the downstream confluence. Thats the difference between the GFS and the euro. don't get me wrong, i do agree with what happens with the 27th system looks like the GFS. but at this point, the euro op is on its own with that scenario. NOT saying it isn't plausible, but today's runs, its a western outlier. this will all change in 6 hrs anyway! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted December 21, 2012 Share Posted December 21, 2012 but the 12z EUro isn't as strong with the xmas eve shortwave, which even as you have alluded to, dictates the downstream confluence. Yea that is true..anyways, im off tomorrow ill give the euro if ppl are up for it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NaoPos Posted December 21, 2012 Share Posted December 21, 2012 Yea that is true..anyways, im off tomorrow ill give the euro if ppl are up for it yeah, im on nightworks right now the next 2 nights. ill be up for both runs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Boreal Posted December 21, 2012 Share Posted December 21, 2012 Yea that is true..anyways, im off tomorrow ill give the euro if ppl are up for it bring it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted December 21, 2012 Share Posted December 21, 2012 0z gefs are pretty much exactly like the op..primary dies in ky 2ndry forms over se va tracks along nj coast, but its colder. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chubbs Posted December 21, 2012 Share Posted December 21, 2012 0z gefs are pretty much exactly like the op..primary dies in ky 2ndry forms over se va tracks along nj coast, but its colder. Wouldn't take much cooling of 00z GFS to bring snow into N+W suburbs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted December 21, 2012 Share Posted December 21, 2012 Interesting, GGEM crushes the SE for Dec 27-28 storm...surpressed...you would think it would be in western Michigan with its general bias. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted December 21, 2012 Share Posted December 21, 2012 Interesting, GGEM crushes the SE for Dec 27-28 storm...surpressed...you would think it would be in western Michigan with its general bias. basically just says every option from an apps runner to miss to the southeast is on the table still. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NaoPos Posted December 21, 2012 Share Posted December 21, 2012 any word on the Ukie for both storms? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted December 21, 2012 Share Posted December 21, 2012 any word on the Ukie for both storms? i have only seen out to hr 72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted December 21, 2012 Share Posted December 21, 2012 so far through hr 120 compared to 12z...definitely less northern stream envolvement... flattened out hgts along the east coast with a better 50/50 low representation. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted December 21, 2012 Share Posted December 21, 2012 hr 126 has a sub 1000mb low over west central ten...the northern stream is starting to get involved Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NaoPos Posted December 21, 2012 Share Posted December 21, 2012 so far through hr 120 compared to 12z...definitely less northern stream envolvement... flattened out hgts along the east coast with a better 50/50 low representation. yet its still cutting harder than the 12z @ 126 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted December 21, 2012 Share Posted December 21, 2012 hr 132 sub 1000 low over south central ky/north central ten...Better high position up north...you can see some signs its trying to form a secondary... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NaoPos Posted December 21, 2012 Share Posted December 21, 2012 h5 way more amp'd up @ 132 compared to 12z run same time period. closed of twice, 12z was still open./ broad LP of 1000mb over ky/tn. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NaoPos Posted December 21, 2012 Share Posted December 21, 2012 144 forming a secondary over central VA..se pa is rain..lehigh valley mix...points n&w snow... @ 144. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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