Ralph Wiggum Posted December 20, 2012 Author Share Posted December 20, 2012 Heights are definitely flatter, vort really digging, looks decent so far. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted December 20, 2012 Author Share Posted December 20, 2012 Jumping to the coast by 135. There's a nice CPF setting up as well this run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted December 20, 2012 Share Posted December 20, 2012 It's going fishing... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted December 20, 2012 Author Share Posted December 20, 2012 It's going fishing... Not before burying VA/NC. Big storm for those guys this run. Yet another oddball solution. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted December 20, 2012 Share Posted December 20, 2012 Not before burying VA/NC and DT of course Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Boch23 Posted December 20, 2012 Share Posted December 20, 2012 I like the 18z if the precip around xmas is snow. Seems like its a decent spot to be in 6 days out with the storm off coast to my untrained eye. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted December 20, 2012 Share Posted December 20, 2012 I like the 18z if the precip around xmas is snow. Seems like its a decent spot to be in 6 days out with the storm off coast to my untrained eye. that's the kiss of death Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NaoPos Posted December 20, 2012 Share Posted December 20, 2012 that's the kiss of death Not for sandy! (As per euro) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted December 20, 2012 Share Posted December 20, 2012 Not for sandy! (As per euro) and the euro has the storm as nothing as of right now lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted December 20, 2012 Share Posted December 20, 2012 It's all about the X-mas shortwave, if that low sets up confluence we get a chance for snow/ice, if it doesnt and does what the euro does with it we get a rain storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted December 20, 2012 Share Posted December 20, 2012 18z gefs, take primary to eastern ky, then develop 2ndry off se va and scoots it northeast...further east than 12z. Majority of the members are northwest of the op. So thats a red flag that 0z may come northwest. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thunder Road Posted December 21, 2012 Share Posted December 21, 2012 The 18z GFS ens mean is beautiful. At least 0.60", all snow for the NW burbs and mostly snow along I-95. Buuuut take a look at the individual members. There's a wrapped-up (warm, rainy) camp, and a suppressed (cold, dry) camp...which makes the mean look like a perfect solution. But in reality you only have 2 members showing any sticking snow (excluding what little bit might come from CAD ahead of the wrapped-up solutions). With the pattern being so progressive, seems a lot like a thread-the-needle. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Boreal Posted December 21, 2012 Share Posted December 21, 2012 The 18z GFS ens mean is beautiful. At least 0.60", all snow for the NW burbs and mostly snow along I-95. Buuuut take a look at the individual members. There's a wrapped-up (warm, rainy) camp, and a suppressed (cold, dry) camp...which makes the mean look like a perfect solution. But in reality you only have 2 members showing any sticking snow (excluding what little bit might come from CAD ahead of the wrapped-up solutions). With the pattern being so progressive, seems a lot like a thread-the-needle. I'm impressed with the ensemble run, as it seems like a fairly strong signal for significant precip. (be it liquid or frozen), given the nature of ensembles and the relatively long lead time remaining for this potential event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted December 21, 2012 Share Posted December 21, 2012 The post christmas storm in my eyes looking at the h5 right now should be further nw...The northern stream is phased in more...stronger low in the midwest. Though, we still have a good 50/50 low and with the christmas wave developing stronger it flattened out the hgts along the east coast, but they are higher than 18z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted December 21, 2012 Share Posted December 21, 2012 gfs for this storm is trending majorly towards the euro with moving the 50/50 low out and splitting the vortex in se canada and phasing it in like the euro shows. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted December 21, 2012 Share Posted December 21, 2012 I have seen my share of weather for this area and don't expect the 27th storm to track any further north then the wave on christmas or at least that is how it usually works Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chubbs Posted December 21, 2012 Share Posted December 21, 2012 Yup won't be out to sea. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted December 21, 2012 Share Posted December 21, 2012 starting to 2ndry now off nc/se va...almost like the gefs have been showing Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RowanBrandon Posted December 21, 2012 Share Posted December 21, 2012 It's a cutter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted December 21, 2012 Share Posted December 21, 2012 gfs for this storm is trending majorly towards the euro with moving the 50/50 low out and splitting the vortex in se canada and phasing it in like the euro shows. If it snows Christmas Eve night, I couldn't care less what happens on the 26/27 storm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted December 21, 2012 Share Posted December 21, 2012 It's a cutter. no its not...the primary dies in ky...then 2ndry off se va sitting on tip of delmarva Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted December 21, 2012 Share Posted December 21, 2012 If it snows Christmas Eve night, I couldn't care less what happens on the 26/27 storm yes you do...the weenie inside those ghostbuster pj pants wants back to back snow events...ray lets be frank Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted December 21, 2012 Share Posted December 21, 2012 If it snows Christmas Eve night, I couldn't care less what happens on the 26/27 storm I agree! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chubbs Posted December 21, 2012 Share Posted December 21, 2012 If it snows Christmas Eve night, I couldn't care less what happens on the 26/27 storm Think we have a better shot at the Xmas storm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FPizz Posted December 21, 2012 Share Posted December 21, 2012 yes you do...the weenie inside those ghostbuster pj pants wants back to back snow events...ray lets be frank What about me? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted December 21, 2012 Share Posted December 21, 2012 no its not...the primary dies in ky...then 2ndry off se va. A cutter would be over the lakes, which looks to be off the table now. Either apps runner or redevelopment Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted December 21, 2012 Share Posted December 21, 2012 gfs is a big icestorm for nw burbs after a front end dump...hr 150 the low has been captured off nj coast by h5 low coming across. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted December 21, 2012 Share Posted December 21, 2012 0z gfs is basically the 12z euro ens, but the primary dies faster. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chubbs Posted December 21, 2012 Share Posted December 21, 2012 Starts as snow and then changes to ice/rain . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RowanBrandon Posted December 21, 2012 Share Posted December 21, 2012 We need it to be off the coast like the 18z. The redevelopment isn't going to work. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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