hazwoper Posted December 20, 2012 Share Posted December 20, 2012 Isn't there a rule of thumb that storms generally don't ride along the spine of the apps? Either they cut way west or redevelop and head along the coast in response to ocean water temps, or something??? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted December 20, 2012 Share Posted December 20, 2012 Isn't there a rule of thumb that storms generally don't ride along the spine of the apps? Either they cut way west or redevelop and head along the coast in response to ocean water temps, or something??? Yes, lows don't like the mountains, but the EC should be the least likely global model to depict it since its got the highest resolution (and thus reacts to the presence of the mountains the best). It DOES happen, just very rarely. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chubbs Posted December 20, 2012 Share Posted December 20, 2012 storm goes right up the spine of the apps...imho need that christmas storm further south, below us so it shoves the boundary south of us and advects the cold air in. 50/50 low departs quickly on Euro. A lot of moving pieces in Canada determine strength and position of 50/50 and how much northern stream energy feeds into trough. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NaoPos Posted December 20, 2012 Share Posted December 20, 2012 it was looking good up untill it decided to run the apps and torch us with wet, chilly rain lol. better than being in Iowa like it was showing 48hrs ago. Interesting to see if the ens pop a secondary. my bet is that it does. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HM Posted December 20, 2012 Share Posted December 20, 2012 50/50 low departs quickly on Euro. A lot of moving pieces in Canada determine strength and position of 50/50 and how much northern stream energy feeds into trough. Always easier to push out a 50-50 type low when the air isn't that cold and there is no PNA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted December 20, 2012 Share Posted December 20, 2012 it was looking good up untill it decided to run the apps and torch us with wet, chilly rain lol. better than being in Iowa like it was showing 48hrs ago. Interesting to see if the ens pop a secondary. my bet is that it does. no you could tell it was gonna cut early, the northern stream was phasing in fast. It was already negative tilt before georgia. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NaoPos Posted December 20, 2012 Share Posted December 20, 2012 Always easier to push out a 50-50 type low when the air isn't that cold and there is no PNA. HELLO HOMETOWN runaway! lol.. How you feeling overall about the potential here? im sure most of us are interested to get a tidbit from ya. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NaoPos Posted December 20, 2012 Share Posted December 20, 2012 no you could tell it was gonna cut early, the northern stream was phasing in fast. It was already negative tilt before georgia. i was being sarcastic. lol. lots going on, between the pacific, and ATlantic and Canada. 6-12hrs slower on the northern stream and the coastal areas have a shot. I'm sure its not a final solution. Kinda surprised the EURO didnt pop a secondary, or even attempt to with the friction of the apps. We'll see though. euro seemed pretty warm even ahead of the main SLP deepening, something to watch for. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted December 20, 2012 Share Posted December 20, 2012 i was being sarcastic. lol. lots going on, between the pacific, and ATlantic and Canada. 6-12hrs slower on the northern stream and the coastal areas have a shot. I'm sure its not a final solution. Kinda surprised the EURO didnt pop a secondary, or even attempt to with the friction of the apps. We'll see though. euro seemed pretty warm even ahead of the main SLP deepening, something to watch for. yea thats why i think that christmas wave holds the cards. It goes north of us we get a southerly wind push and warm up. With the following storm right on its heels it never cools down. If that wave is south of us we advect cold air the whole time and that forces the boundary further east and south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HM Posted December 20, 2012 Share Posted December 20, 2012 HELLO HOMETOWN runaway! lol.. How you feeling overall about the potential here? im sure most of us are interested to get a tidbit from ya. lol... I'm in a punting type of mood and maybe it's affecting my judgement but I'm not thrilled with this setup. Jeez, here I am looking at an awesome 500mb anomaly map but realizing that there is more to it than that. I'm not thrilled with the lack of cold air and progressive Pacific, which I think will take its toll. Each one of these monster waves, starting with today, will continue to carve out lower heights. The pattern will become slower in early January and more favorable. The AAM would suggest the modeling is rushing the PNA response a bit but they could be right. They would like the first few days of the New Year while the AAM would wait a longer than that (1/4-9). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted December 20, 2012 Share Posted December 20, 2012 lol... I'm in a punting type of mood and maybe it's affecting my judgement but I'm not thrilled with this setup. Jeez, here I am looking at an awesome 500mb anomaly map but realizing that there is more to it than that. I'm not thrilled with the lack of cold air and progressive Pacific, which I think will take its toll. You should go over to the NYC forum and calm them down Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HM Posted December 20, 2012 Share Posted December 20, 2012 You should go over to the NYC forum and calm them down haha...not a chance in hell. This is definitely a good potential for interior areas but I'm not so excited here in S-C NJ. Even with some of the colder GFS solutions, there were still precip type / changeover issues here. I think that just about says it all. We would need a drastic shift in the placement of features for me to get excited. And that is certainly still possible. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted December 20, 2012 Share Posted December 20, 2012 lol... I'm in a punting type of mood and maybe it's affecting my judgement but I'm not thrilled with this setup. Jeez, here I am looking at an awesome 500mb anomaly map but realizing that there is more to it than that. I'm not thrilled with the lack of cold air and progressive Pacific, which I think will take its toll. Each one of these monster waves, starting with today, will continue to carve out lower heights. The pattern will become slower in early January and more favorable. The AAM would suggest the modeling is rushing the PNA response a bit but they could be right. They would like the first few days of the New Year while the AAM would wait a longer than that (1/4-9). We just keep kicking the can down the road... first it was Christmas, then the end of the month, now closer to the beginning of the year... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted December 20, 2012 Share Posted December 20, 2012 We just keep kicking the can down the road... first it was Christmas, then the end of the month, now closer to the beginning of the year... you sound like you are actually sad that it keeps getting postpone. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted December 20, 2012 Share Posted December 20, 2012 you sound like you are actually sad that it keeps getting postpone. I'm more sad that I haven't had time to forecast in about a month. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted December 20, 2012 Share Posted December 20, 2012 I'm more sad that I haven't had time to forecast in about a month. well it hasn't been much of a challenge, its been rain rain rain Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CooL Posted December 20, 2012 Share Posted December 20, 2012 yea thats why i think that christmas wave holds the cards. It goes north of us we get a southerly wind push and warm up. With the following storm right on its heels it never cools down. If that wave is south of us we advect cold air the whole time and that forces the boundary further east and south. Yup that's exactly what I was thinking as well. If that little vort cuts to our west it eats our 50/50 help instead of sliding underneath the confluence and hold it intact. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harbourton Posted December 20, 2012 Share Posted December 20, 2012 As per HM, the PNA just does not support a snowstorm in the east coast - especially the Euro ensemble. . PNA WPO Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quakertown needs snow Posted December 20, 2012 Share Posted December 20, 2012 You should go over to the NYC forum and calm them down u made me go look, thanks Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HM Posted December 20, 2012 Share Posted December 20, 2012 We just keep kicking the can down the road... first it was Christmas, then the end of the month, now closer to the beginning of the year... Meh...The only thing I was debating for mid-late Dec (in the long range) was if there would be a gradient pattern or full blown torch. No can kicking here... yet...lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NaoPos Posted December 20, 2012 Share Posted December 20, 2012 From HM himself on the euro Ensembles: "The 12z ECMWF ensembles are pretty bad if you want accumulating snowfall in the I-95 corridor. It is as simple as that; although, it doesn't mean they're right. If we had a deeper cold source, this would easily be a winter storm, or all snow event, and the subtleties of the "50-50 low and blocking" wouldn't be nearly as important (unless you are north of the snow/no snow line)." Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted December 20, 2012 Author Share Posted December 20, 2012 From HM himself on the euro Ensembles: "The 12z ECMWF ensembles are pretty bad if you want accumulating snowfall in the I-95 corridor. It is as simple as that; although, it doesn't mean they're right. If we had a deeper cold source, this would easily be a winter storm, or all snow event, and the subtleties of the "50-50 low and blocking" wouldn't be nearly as important (unless you are north of the snow/no snow line)." N & W of I95 still in the game and look to do well away from the big cities it would appear. 18Z rolling in, ugh, expect another whacked out solution. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted December 20, 2012 Share Posted December 20, 2012 nice 1-3 on the gfs for the christmas wave... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NaoPos Posted December 20, 2012 Share Posted December 20, 2012 vorts a good bit better sharper, drifting south. if only... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted December 20, 2012 Share Posted December 20, 2012 Just going off my hunch that if the christmas wave is further south, the next storm should be further se....we shall see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted December 20, 2012 Share Posted December 20, 2012 Just comparing the 18z h5 to 12z, this looks to be further east than 12z, maybe by a good bit. The 50/50 low is a heck of a lot stronger really pressing down the hgts along the east coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted December 20, 2012 Share Posted December 20, 2012 The differences at h5 between the gfs and euro you can see the more surpressive 50/50 low and the phasing on the euro of the northern stream is more pronounced.... 12z euro h5 18z gfs h5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RowanBrandon Posted December 20, 2012 Share Posted December 20, 2012 Going back to the 6z solution? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted December 20, 2012 Share Posted December 20, 2012 This might go so far south its a DC special Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted December 20, 2012 Share Posted December 20, 2012 Going back to the 6z solution? no, not that far southeast. edit...you may be right...the northern stream isn't really diving in. almost like a flat wave heading ene. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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