snowlurker Posted December 20, 2012 Share Posted December 20, 2012 Here is the latest 6-10 day forecast for the cpc...the 1st analog that particular date has nothing, but 6 days later was the christmas day storm that brough a foot plus in the pocs and 4-12 for the nw burbs and rdg to abe but the 2nd one dropped 13 inches of snow on philly...3rd analog dropped 5 inches on phl.. One of the analogs is December 20, 2009 which was the day after the huge MA Miller A that year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted December 20, 2012 Share Posted December 20, 2012 Gfs has a period of light snow for phl and ttn xmass morning Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hazwoper Posted December 20, 2012 Share Posted December 20, 2012 Gfs has a period of light snow for phl and ttn xmass morning I created a new thread for the "event". I think since it falls on Christmas morning, we should keep it separate. Quite frankly, if we got a [period of light snow/dusting Xmas morning, I would be very happy Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted December 20, 2012 Share Posted December 20, 2012 I created a new thread for the "event". I think since it falls on Christmas morning, we should keep it separate. Quite frankly, if we got a [period of light snow/dusting Xmas morning, I would be very happy 100% agree Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chubbs Posted December 20, 2012 Share Posted December 20, 2012 Here is the latest 6-10 day forecast for the cpc...the 1st analog that particular date has nothing, but 6 days later was the christmas day storm that brough a foot plus in the pocs and 4-12 for the nw burbs and rdg to abe but the 2nd one dropped 13 inches of snow on philly...3rd analog dropped 5 inches on phl.. Wow. 12/24/1966! A favorite from my youth. Very heavy snow on the evening of the 24'th in Delco Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hazwoper Posted December 20, 2012 Share Posted December 20, 2012 Looks like it is already trying to pop the secondary at 141 off SC coast Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chubbs Posted December 20, 2012 Share Posted December 20, 2012 12z taiking the primary up the west side of the Appalachians. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hazwoper Posted December 20, 2012 Share Posted December 20, 2012 Still trying to transfer at 150. 850s along I95. Primary to Knoxville at 1000mb with secondary forming of Hatteras. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chubbs Posted December 20, 2012 Share Posted December 20, 2012 Low consolidates over delmarva. Rain east of mountains. Major dump for Central PA and points west. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted December 20, 2012 Author Share Posted December 20, 2012 Makes more sense than 6z, but then again, what doesn't? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chubbs Posted December 20, 2012 Share Posted December 20, 2012 Makes more sense than 6z, but then again, what doesn't? Yup. Too much Atlantic inflow here. Nice hit N+W. Still a week out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quakertown needs snow Posted December 20, 2012 Share Posted December 20, 2012 really like the 0z and 12z trend. gfs has little white for xmas for some? backside tomorrow looks interesting for poconos. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted December 20, 2012 Share Posted December 20, 2012 12z gefs stil have a good track. primary to eastern ky, then transfer off va cape/lower delmarva. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted December 20, 2012 Author Share Posted December 20, 2012 I might be wrong but I think we want the Christmas wave to overperform, flatten heights, and strengthen/become a 50/50 low. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted December 20, 2012 Share Posted December 20, 2012 Just to rattle up ray so he spills his coffee on his ghostbuster pj pants Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted December 20, 2012 Share Posted December 20, 2012 GFS verbatim is mainly rain still along I-95. I could see there being a lot of ice involved though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chubbs Posted December 20, 2012 Share Posted December 20, 2012 12z gefs stil have a good track. primary to eastern ky, then transfer off va cape/lower delmarva. Wish the Euro ensembles looked like that Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted December 20, 2012 Share Posted December 20, 2012 12z ggem makes the christmas day storm stronger and further south. Thus, it flattens the hegihts, drags the colder air and boundary further south. Sets up a mainly frozen strom for nw burbs and about 80% frozen for phl Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chubbs Posted December 20, 2012 Share Posted December 20, 2012 You can always count on the GEM for a good cyberstorm. Thats what it would take for a good snow here.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted December 20, 2012 Share Posted December 20, 2012 gefs, are still widespread but the gamp is narrowing Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chubbs Posted December 20, 2012 Share Posted December 20, 2012 HPC discussion. Like the GEFS over Euro MODEL CHOICE... THE 00Z GFS LOOKS ENTIRELY PLAUSIBLE AND FITS WELL WITH BOTH THE 00Z GEFS MEAN AND 00Z ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEAN. THE LOW TRACK THE GFS DEPICTED FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS TO OHIO VALLEY ON DAYS 5-7 MATCHES CONTINUITY FROM THE OVERNIGHT PACKAGE AND IS IN THE MIDDLE OF THE BEST CLUSTERING OF ENSEMBLE LOW TRACKS. THIS GAVE US MODERATE TO STRONG CONFIDENCE IN USING THE 00Z GFS AS THE PRIMARY BASIS FOR OUR FRONTS/PRESSURES...WITH RELATIVELY LOWER WEIGHTING ON THE ENSEMBLE MEANS EVEN THROUGH DAY 7. WE ALSO GAVE SOME WEIGHT TO THE 00Z CANADIAN WHICH OFFERS A SIMILAR PROGRESSION. THE 00Z ECMWF WAS LARGELY DISCOUNTED AS BEING TOO AMPLIFIED AND SLOW WITH THE PLAINS/MIDWEST CYCLONE AND ALSO WITH A TROUGH APPROACHING THE WEST COAST LATE IN THE PERIOD. THE ECMWF WAS A CLEAR OUTLIER...ESPECIALLY WITH RESPECT TO DEPTH...COMPARED TO EVEN ITS OWN ENSEMBLE MEMBERS. ONE KEY POINT AT DAY 7...IS THAT OUR MODELS OF CHOICE...GFS/GEFS MEAN/CANADIAN...ALL POINT TOWARD A HAND-OFF FROM THE CYCLONE OVER THE OHIO VALLEY TO A DEVELOPING LOW ALONG THE MID ATLANTIC COAST. THIS IS NOW REFLECTED IN OUR FORECAST. ...IMPACTS... THE STORM SYSTEM OF INTEREST THIS PERIOD WILL ENTER THE WEST COAST ON DAY 3 AND DIG INTO THE SOUTHWEST ON DAY 4...BRINGING RAIN/SNOW/POTENTIAL WINTER STORM CONDITIONS TO THE MOUNTAINS. AT THE SAME TIME...BLOCKED FLOW AT HIGHER LATITUDES WILL ALLOW A STACKED CYCLONE OVER EASTERN CANADA TO FORCE MORE ARCTIC AND MODIFIED ARCTIC AIR DOWN INTO THE CENTRAL U.S...SETTING THE STAGE FOR ANOTHER SNOW EVENT WHEN THE STORM EJECTS FROM THE SOUTHWEST STATES. EXPECT THIS TIME THAT THE PERSISTENT BLOCK OVER EASTERN CANADA WILL SUPPRESS THE TRACK OF THE SURFACE LOW INTO THE OHIO VALLEY RATHER THAN THE GREAT LAKES. AT PRESENT TIME...THE MOST LIKELY SNOW SWATH APPEARS TO BE ACROSS NORTHWEST OK INTO KS/MO CHRISTMAS DAY AND NIGHT...CONTINUING TOWARD NORTHERN IL/IN. RAIN/THUNDER WILL OCCUR FARTHER SOUTH TO THE GULF COAST...SWEEPING EASTWARD. MODELS INDICATE COLD AIR DAMMED INTO THE MID ATLANTIC REGION IN ADVANCE OF THE SYSTEM...WHICH MAY RESULT IN A MIXTURE OF PRECIPITATION TYPES TOWARD DAYS 6/7. IF THE COASTAL LOW/NOR'EASTER WERE TO FORM AS FORECAST...IT APPEARS PER THE 00Z GFS/GEFS INFORMATION THAT THE SNOW LINE WOULD INDEED REACH THE COAST AND THE MAJOR CITIES IN NEW ENGLAND. THIS IS AT DAY 7...HOWEVER...AND THEREFORE IS LESS CERTAIN. THE ECMWF ENSEMBLE IS A BIT SLOWER AND FARTHER WEST...SUGGESTING MORE WARM ADVECTION WHICH WOULD PUSH THE RAIN/SNOW LINE INLAND. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluehens Posted December 20, 2012 Share Posted December 20, 2012 I might be wrong but I think we want the Christmas wave to overperform, flatten heights, and strengthen/become a 50/50 low. From what I've been reading elsewhere I think you're right....somehow we need the X-mas wave stronger and further south....probably a pipe-dream but miracles do happen. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted December 20, 2012 Share Posted December 20, 2012 The euro is really deepening the christmas storm bringing it right towards cleveland... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted December 20, 2012 Share Posted December 20, 2012 through hr 126 nice cold push behind storm...that system fizzles over clev some rain/snow showers for the region Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted December 20, 2012 Share Posted December 20, 2012 Storm gathering down in the gulf states...good bit surpressed hgts compared to 0z... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chubbs Posted December 20, 2012 Share Posted December 20, 2012 Doesn't look too bad at 120 on e-wall. That first storm is going to bring down some cold air. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted December 20, 2012 Share Posted December 20, 2012 sub 1004 low over sw alabama...northern stream is diving in pretty good, hgts are responding to the deeping on the backside Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted December 20, 2012 Share Posted December 20, 2012 hr 150 its coming up or just west of the apps...looks like its trying to secondary but that still a while from occuring. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted December 20, 2012 Share Posted December 20, 2012 hr `156 sub 992 low over south central va...driving rainstorm for everyone..western pa and oh valley get hit good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted December 20, 2012 Share Posted December 20, 2012 storm goes right up the spine of the apps...imho need that christmas storm further south, below us so it shoves the boundary south of us and advects the cold air in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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