NaoPos Posted December 20, 2012 Share Posted December 20, 2012 PAC AND ATL BOTH FLATTER...... transfer off the ca capes.. philly cashes in...barely. big shift by the GFS,,,, Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RowanBrandon Posted December 20, 2012 Share Posted December 20, 2012 MAJOR improvements on the GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chubbs Posted December 20, 2012 Share Posted December 20, 2012 A SE shift but not enough to save us - ice/rain here. Snow nearby in PA and NYC, NE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RowanBrandon Posted December 20, 2012 Share Posted December 20, 2012 It definitely goes over to snow with those kind of dynamics. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattinpa Posted December 20, 2012 Share Posted December 20, 2012 MAJOR improvements on the GFS. Looks like a snow-ice/rain-snow for SE PA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted December 20, 2012 Share Posted December 20, 2012 Yea thats snow at the end, 2m temps stay cold enough for I-95 N for entire storm, how much of it is sleet/freezing rain who knows, but terrific, terrific, terrific trends 2night so far. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ezweather Posted December 20, 2012 Share Posted December 20, 2012 Folks, this is a big development with the GFS run. You now can see that the primary low dies over Ohio and then a new takes shape just over eastern North Carolina. So, we are seeing how the block over Eastern Canada is keeping this storm from doing a Lakes Cutter. So, to me, I think we can see more of coastal development than what the models showed today. Still more time to watch, but you can here, that Eastern PA and up into New England would do pretty good with this storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RowanBrandon Posted December 20, 2012 Share Posted December 20, 2012 Best I've seen so far this year inside truncation: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chubbs Posted December 20, 2012 Share Posted December 20, 2012 yeah ends as snow as storm stalls offshore Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NaoPos Posted December 20, 2012 Share Posted December 20, 2012 ^^ 192 is truncation Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RowanBrandon Posted December 20, 2012 Share Posted December 20, 2012 Isn't 204 when it goes low-res? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chubbs Posted December 20, 2012 Share Posted December 20, 2012 Quite an improvement compared to where we were yesterday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thunder Road Posted December 20, 2012 Share Posted December 20, 2012 I usually wait for the run to come out on TwisterData but going off InstantWeatherMaps it appears that 189-192 is the window where we might actually see snow all the way down into Philly. 186 has 850's at ~2 C over Philly and a freezing line running through the far NW burbs. Since this is inside truncation we can get a bit more detail in about 10 minutes when the raw data comes out and see who gets what off this run. Interesting feature showing up over DE on the 6-hour accum precip at 192 with a band of >0.50" QPF surrounded by only 0.10-0.20". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted December 20, 2012 Share Posted December 20, 2012 Isn't 204 when it goes low-res? Technically it goes low res at 193, though we only get output at 204. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted December 20, 2012 Author Share Posted December 20, 2012 0Z Euro, while still warmish, just took a big step at 5000mb in the right direction from 12Z. Does something weird with the Christmas system though....actually cuts it to our West. Stands alone in that regard. This is what keeps us warm with no 50/50 low this run. Ens mean should be interesting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phlwx Posted December 20, 2012 Share Posted December 20, 2012 As a FYI, I *think* the qpf on the GFS at 180-192 is previous 12 and not previous 6. The map will say 6 on SV but if you look at it and the NCEP graphic (which is previous 12 hours in the 180-192) you'll see similarities. It's not quite truncated but the QPF is not just a 6 hr window...so any of that "snow" that's falling may be rain at 180 or rain ending as snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phlwx Posted December 20, 2012 Share Posted December 20, 2012 completely different look on the 6z GFS. 12/26 system much weaker, flatter, develops a weak low along the coast off of the Carolinas but definitely nothing like the 0z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RowanBrandon Posted December 20, 2012 Share Posted December 20, 2012 It's much stronger/further north with the Christmas wave which then affects the storm following. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NaoPos Posted December 20, 2012 Share Posted December 20, 2012 completely different look on the 6z GFS. 12/26 system much weaker, flatter, develops a weak low along the coast off of the Carolinas but definitely nothing like the 0z. thing goes all pat Burell on us. from apps runner to OTS lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NaoPos Posted December 20, 2012 Share Posted December 20, 2012 It's much stronger/further north with the Christmas wave which then affects the storm following. it flattens the flow a little too much, and the 27th shortwave doesn't amplify. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phlwx Posted December 20, 2012 Share Posted December 20, 2012 It's much stronger/further north with the Christmas wave which then affects the storm following. The 500 responsible for Christmas is actually south of 0z (but north of 18z) and digs the wave a bit more while it flattens the 500 in the SW (which develops the supposed "bigger" storm). The difference between 18z and 6z on the bigger storm is rather significant...the 18z digs the wave down to the AZ/Mexico border while the 6z only digs it down to, oh, Northeastern NEW Mexico. What's 400 miles between 2 model runs 12 hours apart? Oh, the difference between a snow/rain/ice fest and a weak wave that scoots out-to-sea. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted December 20, 2012 Share Posted December 20, 2012 0z and 6z gefs have trended towards a faster secondary and make it pretty much a coastal with a good track...again this is stil 7 days away, but its getting to the time period where you start paying attention to trends...this isn't done trending at all. Also, the stronger the 1st wave on christmas is the better shot the 2nd wave ends up further south. With a stronger first wave it reinforces the cold air, becomes a new 50/50 low and prevents big hgt rises along the coast. Though, the risk of the 1st wave being stronger also means it could be liquid. 0z 6z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chrisNJ Posted December 20, 2012 Share Posted December 20, 2012 HPC starting to honk a bit. EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION NWS HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD 200 AM EST THU DEC 20 2012 VALID 12Z SUN DEC 23 2012 - 12Z THU DEC 27 2012 ...MORE ACTIVE WINTER WEATHER COMING... MODELS AND ENSEMBLES IN GENERAL OFFER AN INCREASINGLY SIMILAR LARGER SCALE FLOW EVOLUTION FOR NEXT WEEK DESPITE CONTINUED DIFFERENCES WITH EMBEDDED SYSTEM TIMING AND INTERACTIONS. THIS PATTERN SEEMS HIGHLIGHTED BY LEAD MID-UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ENERGY FROM THE CENTRAL TO ERN US DAY CHRISTMAS EVE/CHRISTMAS ALONG WITH AN ASSOCIATED SURFACE SYSTEM REFLECTION AND PCPN FOCUS THAT THE MODELS TRENDS NOW BETTER FAVOR INTO THE COOLED AIRMASS IN WAKE OF THE DEEPER DOWNSTREAM CANADIAN MARITIME LOW. UPSTREAM...AMPLE MID-UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ENERGY DIGS FROM THE WEST COAST CHRISTMAS EVE TO THE S-CENTRAL ROCKIES/PLAINS BY CHRISTMAS WITH SURFACE LOW DEVELOPMENT AND PCPN UNDERNEATH AND OVER SWD SURGED PLAINS HIGH PRESSURE. THIS SYSTEM REALLY IS EXPECTED TO DEEPEN MID-LATE WEEK OVER THE E-CENTRAL THE ERN US INTO A MAJOR WINTER STORM WITH AN EXPANDING HEAVIER PCPN SHIELD. THERE IS AMPLE ROOM FOR COLD AIR TO SETTLE TO THE NORTH OF THE LOW AND DAMMED DOWN THROUGH THE MID-ATLANTIC IN ADVANCE OF THE SYSTEM. OVERALL...HPC OVERNIGHT MEDIUM RANGE SURFACE FRONTS/PRESSURES AND 500 MB PROGS ALONG WITH NEW OVERNIGHT 00 UTC HPCGUIDE 5KM SENSIBLE WEATHER GRIDS HAVE BEEN PRIMARILY DERIVED FROM A BLEND OF THE 18 UTC GFS WITH THE 12 UTC ECMWF/GEFS ENSEMBLE MEAN/ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEAN. THESE MODELS OFFERED A REASONABLY SIMILAR LARGER SCALE PATTERN EVOLUTION ALOFT AND CLUSTER THE MAIN SURFACE FEATURES BETTER THAN OTHER AVAILABLE GUIDANCE. THE PURPOSE OF INCLUSION OF THE ENSEMBLE MEANS WAS TO SMOOTH THE LESS PREDICTABLE SMALLER SCALE DETAILS WHILE BLENDING IN THE GFS/ECMWF ALLOWS FOR BETTER FEATURE DEFINITION FOR SEEMINGLY THE MORE PREDICTABLE FEATURES GIVEN BROAD GUIDANCE SUPPORT. A QUICK LOOK AT THE LATER 00 UTC MODELS SHOWS CONTINUED VARIABILITY WITH TIMING/SPACING OF EMBEDDED INDIVIDUAL FEATURES BUT CONTINUED SUPPORT FOR THE OVERALL ACTIVE WINTER PATTERN. SCHICHTEL Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted December 20, 2012 Share Posted December 20, 2012 The christmas day storm is colder on the gefs, while the euro ens have it tracking right over the region...a little warmer obviously with the r/s line running over phl metro back yards. euro ens for the 26-27 storm shifted a little east and a bit colder...The primary is a good bit weaker and you can see the transfer starting at hr 168 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chubbs Posted December 20, 2012 Share Posted December 20, 2012 The individual 06 GEFS have several snowstorms along with OTS and rain solutions. Quite a change in past day or so. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted December 20, 2012 Share Posted December 20, 2012 Here are the mslp for the 6z gefs for the 26-28 storm...still a lot of solutions on the table Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted December 20, 2012 Share Posted December 20, 2012 0z ggem for the christmas wave dec 26-27 storm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted December 20, 2012 Share Posted December 20, 2012 Just to rattle up ray so he spills his coffee on his ghostbuster pj pants Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chubbs Posted December 20, 2012 Share Posted December 20, 2012 Just to rattle up ray so he spills his coffee on his ghostbuster pj pants The 00z GFS was quite the weenie run for this area with the low stalling off NJ with heavy back-side snows. . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted December 20, 2012 Share Posted December 20, 2012 Here is the latest 6-10 day forecast for the cpc...the 1st analog that particular date has nothing, but 6 days later was the christmas day storm that brough a foot plus in the pocs and 4-12 for the nw burbs and rdg to abe but the 2nd one dropped 13 inches of snow on philly...3rd analog dropped 5 inches on phl.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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