blinkers88 Posted December 26, 2012 Share Posted December 26, 2012 Let the hallucinating begin Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted December 26, 2012 Share Posted December 26, 2012 Ray, you're a mod since we're in storm mode, right? Care to move the NWS critiquing to the banter thread? My powers are limited. I can delete and edit posts, but I can't move them. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LMolineuxLM1 Posted December 26, 2012 Share Posted December 26, 2012 I can't believe it our sub-forum has been so good for so long and crapped up fast on something stupid, we are better then this people. Keep our sub-forum nice and clean. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted December 26, 2012 Share Posted December 26, 2012 I can't believe it our sub-forum has been so good for so long and crapped up fast on something stupid, we are better then this people. Keep our sub-forum nice and clean. There's a reason why, for example, you never see Upton mets in the NYC forum anymore. And a reason why HM never goes in there. Lets not let PHL become like NYC, because at that point we might as well merge them back together again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chubbs Posted December 26, 2012 Share Posted December 26, 2012 The GFS has trrended warmer since 06z run. Not much snow in SE PA on 18z GFS, 0-2 in LV, RDG Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Parsley Posted December 26, 2012 Share Posted December 26, 2012 That's a boatload of rain on the 00z NAM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted December 26, 2012 Share Posted December 26, 2012 yes and NAM not budging from its warmer look Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dssbss Posted December 26, 2012 Share Posted December 26, 2012 ...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM NOON WEDNESDAY TO 7 AM EST THURSDAY... THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MOUNT HOLLY HAS ISSUED A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR A WINTRY MIX OF SNOW, SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN... WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM NOON WEDNESDAY TO 7 AM EST THURSDAY. * LOCATIONS...BERKS COUNTY, THE LEHIGH VALLEY AND WARREN AND MORRIS COUNTIES IN NORTHERN NEW JERSEY. * HAZARD TYPES...A MIXTURE OF SNOW, SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN. * SNOW ACCUMULATIONS...1 TO 4 INCHES, HIGHEST TOWARD THE POCONOS AND SUSSEX COUNTY NEW JERSEY. * ICE ACCUMULATIONS...A TRACE TO A TENTH OF AN INCH. * TIMING...PRECIPITATION SHOULD OVERSPREAD THE AREA BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND CHANGE TO SNOW AS IT BECOMES HEAVIER. PRECIPITATION WILL THEN CHANGE TO SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN LATE IN THE AFTERNOON OR EVENING AND TO PLAIN RAIN OVERNIGHT WEDNESDAY. ISOLATED POCKETS OF FREEZING RAIN MIGHT PERSIST DEEPER INTO THE NIGHT. * IMPACTS...TRAVEL ON UNTREATED ROADS WILL BECOME HAZARDOUS, ESPECIALLY WHEN FREEZING RAIN IS OCCURRING. EXERCISE EXTREME CAUTION ON BRIDGES AND OVERPASSES. * WINDS...NORTHEAST 15 TO 25 MPH WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 35 MPH. * TEMPERATURES...IN THE LOWER 30S DURING PRECIPITATION, RISING SLOWLY OVERNIGHT ON WEDNESDAY. * VISIBILITIES...ONE HALF A MILE AT TIMES IN SNOW. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChescoWx Posted December 26, 2012 Share Posted December 26, 2012 Latest Wxsim run has a very significant ice storm tomorrow in NW Chester County PA with 0.91" falling before temps rise above 32 by 7pm tomorrow evening with around 3" of sleet followed by almost 3/4 of an inch of ZR before changing to plain rain by 7pm tomorrow night - almost an inch of rain after that!. So clearly the Wxsim is missing something ( it has happened before) as there is no WWA from the NWS as they see only less than an inch of any sleet/IP before a change to rain. Currently Cloudy Temp 30.7 DP 25.6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
White_Mtn_Wx Posted December 26, 2012 Share Posted December 26, 2012 Paul your inclination is likely correct. Knowing local climo this area will see a quarter to half of each of those Wxsim frozen amounts before a soaking rain. Shame on the posters blasting the "conservative" NWS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChescoWx Posted December 26, 2012 Share Posted December 26, 2012 Agree Greg - I would guess the next run will show a more rapid rise in temps ....saving us from the currrent ice storm the Wxsim sees. No doubt Mt Holly sees something that will allow the temps to rise much quicker here in NW Chesco than my program is showing. Either way very interesting times ahead...very challenging forecasts - glad we have professionals to sort this out! Paul your inclination is likely correct. Knowing local climo this area will see a quarter to half of each of those Wxsim frozen amounts before a soaking rain. Shame on the posters blasting the "conservative" NWS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thunder Road Posted December 26, 2012 Share Posted December 26, 2012 RGEM was a hiccup, it appears: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Parsley Posted December 26, 2012 Share Posted December 26, 2012 RGEM was a hiccup, it appears: It still paints a snowy/icy start not far NW of PHL. Regardless, anything is washed away by a deluge. Western NY appears to be the place to be for this storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wederwarrior Posted December 26, 2012 Share Posted December 26, 2012 This storm is coming in fast. OBS thread anyone? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowwors2 Posted December 26, 2012 Share Posted December 26, 2012 It still paints a snowy/icy start not far NW of PHL. Regardless, anything is washed away by a deluge. Western NY appears to be the place to be for this storm. read that there were NAM and GFS errors today... any thoughts on 0z Euro? thanks.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted December 26, 2012 Share Posted December 26, 2012 read that there were NAM and GFS errors today... any thoughts on 0z Euro? thanks.... its the same as 12z...storm moves in a little faster though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted December 26, 2012 Share Posted December 26, 2012 Euro seems colder Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted December 26, 2012 Share Posted December 26, 2012 Any frozen precip into the city possible? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LVblizzard Posted December 26, 2012 Share Posted December 26, 2012 Any frozen precip into the city possible? If the HRRR verifies...looks like up to 1/2" then rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted December 26, 2012 Share Posted December 26, 2012 This storm is coming in fast. OBS thread anyone? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChescoWx Posted December 26, 2012 Share Posted December 26, 2012 Just ran the Wxsim with the new 6z NAM and GFS - I am a little surprised the WWA was not extended into the new Zone splits N and W of PHL based on what Wxsim is seeing (has it's flaws)... Snow arriving this AM - heavy snow and sleet by late morning - total Snow and IP accumulation 4" to 6" before changing to ZR - temps do not get above freezing till around 830pm this evening by which time 1.12" of frozen has fallen - heavy rain till after midnight transitioning back over to light ZR by rush hour tomorrow morning - after the frozen another 0.86" of rain falls Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
anthonyweather Posted December 26, 2012 Share Posted December 26, 2012 Just ran the Wxsim with the new 6z NAM and GFS - I am a little surprised the WWA was not extended into the new Zone splits N and W of PHL based on what Wxsim is seeing (has it's flaws)... Snow arriving this AM - heavy snow and sleet by late morning - total Snow and IP accumulation 4" to 6" before changing to ZR - temps do not get above freezing till around 830pm this evening by which time 1.12" of frozen has fallen - heavy rain till after midnight transitioning back over to light ZR by rush hour tomorrow morning - after the frozen another 0.86" of rain falls Wow If that's Chester I could only imagine how Lehigh valley looks Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chubbs Posted December 26, 2012 Share Posted December 26, 2012 Asit has been the case for past few days 06z GFS run is a little colder.Still per BUFKIT there is only a brief period of snow to start at phl+ilg. Longer period of snow further N+W. Roughly 3" at abe and 4" at rdg. Freezing rain doesn't look too bad maybe 0.25 at abe and very little at rdg. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sunny and Warm Posted December 26, 2012 Share Posted December 26, 2012 I am a little surprised the WWA was not extended into the new Zone splits N and W of PHL based on what Wxsim is seeing (has it's flaws)... To paraphrase your quote above, are you questioning why the NWS isn't using a flawed product to increase advisory levels? Seems pretty evident that if a product is flawed it will not be used in lieu of better products and human experience. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NaoPos Posted December 26, 2012 Share Posted December 26, 2012 take it FWIW: this is only through 12 hours for you northern folks: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thunder Road Posted December 26, 2012 Share Posted December 26, 2012 take it FWIW: this is only through 12 hours for you northern folks: That would be a nice surprise for Cincinnati. 10-18" instead of their current forecast of 1-3". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChescoWx Posted December 26, 2012 Share Posted December 26, 2012 That is my point.....I was surprised at the Wxsim output....it is a great tool but obviously has limitations it basically uses GFS and NAM which I can adjust weighting along with advection routines I control based on my weather station obs to develop a true ..in my backyard forecast. All that said I fully expected a WWA but your point below reminds me of a baseball analogy ..if you listen to the fans you will soon be sitting with them! This is why we leave real forecasting to the professionals. I put my forecasting faith In Mt Holly....interesting winter weather ahead To paraphrase your quote above, are you questioning why the NWS isn't using a flawed product to increase advisory levels? Seems pretty evident that if a product is flawed it will not be used in lieu of better products and human experience. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quakertown needs snow Posted December 26, 2012 Share Posted December 26, 2012 abe 6z and 0z gfs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quakertown needs snow Posted December 26, 2012 Share Posted December 26, 2012 and nam Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted December 26, 2012 Share Posted December 26, 2012 Mt. Holly is very stubborn and has started a new trend of putting up WWA's and WSW's when precip. has already started falling. Somerset and Hunterdon counties both saw WWA's last night after the snow had started. Maybe for the Pennsylvania folks...in New Jersey not so much. Bye. It's too bad I can't even enjoy a holiday with my family without some jerk messing it up Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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