friedmators Posted December 19, 2012 Share Posted December 19, 2012 Yea per euro its just cutter after cutter...till that -pna goes away snow shots are hurting. ensembles have secondary off of VA.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tcutter Posted December 19, 2012 Share Posted December 19, 2012 ensembles have secondary off of VA.... so maybe not DT storm fail just yet........... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thunder Road Posted December 19, 2012 Share Posted December 19, 2012 <banter> p003 please </banter> Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlurker Posted December 19, 2012 Share Posted December 19, 2012 I thought it was at least post-worthy to note that the cpc D+11 analog composite lists a KU storm (December 23-25, 1966) as the top analog while the D+8 composite lists the same storm as the second analog. The D+8 composite also lists another KU storm (December 19-21, 2009) as the eighth analog. I don't know how to interpret the charts, so I'll post them here for more educated posters to comment upon if they so desire. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hazwoper Posted December 19, 2012 Share Posted December 19, 2012 GFS coming around to southern solution for Xmas morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChescoWx Posted December 19, 2012 Share Posted December 19, 2012 See the vendor forecast thread for more details on the JB Festivus Miracle snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted December 19, 2012 Share Posted December 19, 2012 So far the 18z gfs is a great front end thump for this storm. Then at hr 192 rain phl-south. Frozen from tth-north. New low over Delmarva. Central pa getting crushed Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
svh19044 Posted December 19, 2012 Share Posted December 19, 2012 See the vendor forecast thread for more details on the JB Festivus Miracle snow Do you really have to post this in every thread? We can see the separate thread for Vender Forecasts, and that is what that thread is there for. Thanks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted December 19, 2012 Share Posted December 19, 2012 Hr 204 l-95 west back to snow at some point. 992 just south of Li. Verbatim its a powerful winter storm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlurker Posted December 19, 2012 Share Posted December 19, 2012 See the vendor forecast thread for more details on the JB Festivus Miracle snow Don't worry Paul, we still love you! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted December 19, 2012 Share Posted December 19, 2012 the 18z gfs is the reason why i moved far nw of the city...basically all frozen to freezing up in this area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted December 19, 2012 Share Posted December 19, 2012 BL temp issues? Lol no. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Storm Clouds Posted December 19, 2012 Share Posted December 19, 2012 Tombo, how does the Susquehanna Valley make out? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted December 19, 2012 Share Posted December 19, 2012 ensembles have secondary off of VA.... the euro ens im looking at show a 2ndry right over us hr 192 hr 168 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted December 19, 2012 Share Posted December 19, 2012 Tombo, how does the Susquehanna Valley make out? front end snow, then ice, then back to snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted December 19, 2012 Share Posted December 19, 2012 Gefs have the weenie christmas wave...their are definitely some further north/warmer solutions. So don't get locked into this till about 48hrs out. This is still a week away...pretty much the same for dec 26-28 storm...a little colder though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RowanBrandon Posted December 19, 2012 Share Posted December 19, 2012 I'd rather have the inch of snow Christmas morning. You people can keep your monster ice storm a few days later. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phlwx Posted December 19, 2012 Share Posted December 19, 2012 weaker primary wave makes a huge freakin' difference. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jrodd321 Posted December 19, 2012 Share Posted December 19, 2012 weaker primary wave makes a huge freakin' difference.do you think having it track further south like the 18z has it will help the second storm be more frozen for us? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phlwx Posted December 19, 2012 Share Posted December 19, 2012 do you think having it track further south like the 18z has it will help the second storm be more frozen for us? It's a week out and it's the GFS and it's the first GFS run (I think) to have shown this type of solution in the non-truncation (pre-192 range) so I'm applying a healthy grain of salt to my expectations on this storm. That said, a weaker primary track is going to prevent as much mild air from getting in and if the secondary develops down near DC we should have a pretty decent shot at some frozen precip. The track isn't necessarily farther south on the primary...it still gets to just about Detroit before it pops a secondary (which the 6 and 12z were not doing). It helps it's only around 1000 and not 990 at its strongest....that makes a big difference. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted December 20, 2012 Share Posted December 20, 2012 It's a week out and it's the GFS and it's the first GFS run (I think) to have shown this type of solution in the non-truncation (pre-192 range) so I'm applying a healthy grain of salt to my expectations on this storm. That said, a weaker primary track is going to prevent as much mild air from getting in and if the secondary develops down near DC we should have a pretty decent shot at some frozen precip. The track isn't necessarily farther south on the primary...it still gets to just about Detroit before it pops a secondary (which the 6 and 12z were not doing). It helps it's only around 1000 and not 990 at its strongest....that makes a big difference. Also, to add to this, the 18z gfs has a much stronger and expansive high than the 12z. Secondly, it had a stronger and further south 50/50 low which fought off the the higher hgts along the east coast and created better confluence. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RowanBrandon Posted December 20, 2012 Share Posted December 20, 2012 For those much smarter than me, is there anyway the primary can go to the coast, or is it looking like only the transfer is possible? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted December 20, 2012 Share Posted December 20, 2012 For those much smarter than me, is there anyway the primary can go to the coast, or is it looking like only the transfer is possible? you can never say never, but odds are against it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted December 20, 2012 Share Posted December 20, 2012 WOW, Those ensembles read that 12/20/02 were an analog pattern. Took a look at it and wow, I can see the resemblance a lot...Pretty cool. That storm ended up riding into the lakes. I do think we have a better pattern, but you can def. see the similarities. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted December 20, 2012 Share Posted December 20, 2012 Even if the primary goes inland we could still be looking at a pretty significant ice storm. The CAD and 2m temps being shown on the GFS this far out is a pretty significant signal that ice may be an issue with the 27-28 storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thunder Road Posted December 20, 2012 Share Posted December 20, 2012 Even if the primary goes inland we could still be looking at a pretty significant ice storm. The CAD and 2m temps being shown on the GFS this far out is a pretty significant signal that ice may be an issue with the 27-28 storm. I wouldn't make any comment on 2 m temps modeled by the GFS this far out. It seems that to get a "good" ice storm we typically need some really good cold entrenched beforehand, which doesn't seem to be the case this time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted December 20, 2012 Share Posted December 20, 2012 18z christmas miracle snow didn't last on gfs for long trended south maybe the big one will too Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chubbs Posted December 20, 2012 Share Posted December 20, 2012 Upper low for primary looks a little weaker so far. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chubbs Posted December 20, 2012 Share Posted December 20, 2012 GFS Primary tracking up the Ohio River instead of towards Chicago Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted December 20, 2012 Share Posted December 20, 2012 looks like an ice threat this run Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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