NaoPos Posted December 25, 2012 Share Posted December 25, 2012 ^^and den all washed away from 2" of rain!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jwilson Posted December 25, 2012 Share Posted December 25, 2012 Our little corner of PA is the only sector without an alert of some type (minus 1.5 counties in the southwest corner). Boy I hate seeing that. It also looks like the first time the NWS has gotten to deploy their new split-county warning system. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted December 25, 2012 Share Posted December 25, 2012 Well, now that this event is upon us, after looking over the data I can say that a bit of frozen at the start appears likely here at TTN. I could see several inches, but at this point I think the best forecast here is a coating to 2 inches, or "around an inch", on Wednesday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rgwp96 Posted December 25, 2012 Share Posted December 25, 2012 Well, now that this event is upon us, after looking over the data I can say that a bit of frozen at the start appears likely here at TTN. I could see several inches, but at this point I think the best forecast here is a coating to 2 inches, or "around an inch", on Wednesday. does mt holly not totally believe soundings from euro/gfs? show my area of northern morris getting some good front end snows but morris not mentioned at all. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted December 25, 2012 Share Posted December 25, 2012 does mt holly not totally believe soundings from euro/gfs? show my area of northern morris getting some good front end snows but morris not mentioned at all. http://forecast.weather.gov/MapClick.php?lat=41.0037087&lon=-74.34153939999999&site=all&smap=1&searchresult=Butler%2C%20NJ%2C%20USA Looks like they expect 1-3" for you. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rgwp96 Posted December 25, 2012 Share Posted December 25, 2012 http://forecast.weat...Butler, NJ, USA Looks like they expect 1-3" for you. that thing changes hrly it seems, just saying sounding certainly support more Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phlwx Posted December 25, 2012 Share Posted December 25, 2012 GFS looks like it trended colder and even shows 2-3" into the city based off of raleighs snowfall maps. Barker's maps say no (but barely) -- http://wxcaster4.com/gfs/CONUS2_GFS0P5_SFC_ACCUM-SNOW_60HR.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Animal Posted December 25, 2012 Share Posted December 25, 2012 keeping fingers crossed, 12 Z runs come in cold. I read a few post that the NAM has been awful out in the west/mid west with this storm. Not sure if this theory holds true for back east. Going back home around 11 AM tomorrow. Hopefully I can squeeze out 6 inches imby Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phlwx Posted December 25, 2012 Share Posted December 25, 2012 My best guess as of right now is a "similar" setup to last night -- front end hit tomorrow afternoon that gives the city a coating, NW burbs get an inch or two, then you change to a soaking rain with some sleet mixed in during transition. If you're below a Quakertown-Reading-Harrisburg line, you probably don't have much icing problems to deal with. Lehigh Valley gets a decent round of icy rain or sleet but ends with temperatures probably above 32 at the end but not by much. Poconos mostly snow -- probably get a foot in some spots. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phlwx Posted December 25, 2012 Share Posted December 25, 2012 Phew 6-10" of snow for Lehigh Valley followed by up to 1/2" of ice. I've been sayin since say one that this would trend colder at the last minute NWS disagrees with this since they didn't put you under a winter storm watch...yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Voyager Posted December 25, 2012 Share Posted December 25, 2012 Barker's maps say no (but barely) -- http://wxcaster4.com...M-SNOW_60HR.gif LOL!!! Look what that map does to Schuylkill County where I live... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chubbs Posted December 25, 2012 Share Posted December 25, 2012 With the 06 GFS a little colder. Barker's map has shifted further SE now 1-3 near phl. 6-10 in LV. http://wxcaster.com/...3?STATIONID=DIX Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Voyager Posted December 25, 2012 Share Posted December 25, 2012 With the 06 GFS a little colder. Barker's map has shifted further SE now 1-3 near phl. 6-10 in LV. http://wxcaster.com/...3?STATIONID=DIX What the hell is it doing to Schuylkill County though??? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dssbss Posted December 25, 2012 Share Posted December 25, 2012 Same with Berks...that middle finger goes right through berks Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phlwx Posted December 25, 2012 Share Posted December 25, 2012 With the 06 GFS a little colder. Barker's map has shifted further SE now 1-3 near phl. 6-10 in LV. http://wxcaster.com/...3?STATIONID=DIX That overlay is wrong compared to the first map I linked (which is the 6z GFS) as well as what SV is showing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quakertown needs snow Posted December 25, 2012 Share Posted December 25, 2012 lol at the finger Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
_AR_ Posted December 25, 2012 Share Posted December 25, 2012 Lock it up. Merry Christmas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quakertown needs snow Posted December 25, 2012 Share Posted December 25, 2012 Ski areas need this then maybe another Saturday = Sunday Ski day Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chubbs Posted December 25, 2012 Share Posted December 25, 2012 BUFKIT says Barker's maps are too generous and more in-line with SV map posted above. BUFKIT off 06z GFS: phl 0.5, ILG around 1, RDG around 1.5, KABE 4.5. There is a warm layer just below 850. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChescoWx Posted December 25, 2012 Share Posted December 25, 2012 Latest Wxsim with 6z data has snow arriving around daybreak tomorrow and transitioning to snow/IP (1 to 3") followed by ZR with temps struggling to get above freezing - it looks like temps will finally do so by around 730pm tomorrow night by then 0.80" of frozen has fallen. From that point on heavy rain with up to another 1.08" of rain. Looking ahead Snow arrives yet again on Saturday AM - this one currently shows all snow with 4 to 6" accumulating here in NW Chesco - quite the beginning to winter! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SP Posted December 25, 2012 Share Posted December 25, 2012 Ski areas need this then maybe another Saturday = Sunday Ski day once the cold came in JFBB cranked the snow making up to full throttle. I expect the next storm will provide a nice top layer, maybe a bit crunchy. Sat too. I think the Skiing Thursday through New Years will be great, with snow showers adding a pow pow in-between events. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phlwx Posted December 25, 2012 Share Posted December 25, 2012 12z NAM slightly faster on precip...no significant changes for anyone south of 80 on ptype. a lil less sleet north of 80 but no substantive changes on driving rainstorm for Philly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thunder Road Posted December 25, 2012 Share Posted December 25, 2012 Very nice AFD from our friends at Mount Holly this morning! And if they're stuck writing it on Christmas morning, the least you can do is read it, amirite? http://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=NWS&issuedby=PHI&product=AFD&format=CI&version=1&glossary=0&highlight=off Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LVblizzard Posted December 25, 2012 Share Posted December 25, 2012 12z RGEM is very cold. All frozen I-78 north, good front end thump everywhere north of the turnpike. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Voyager Posted December 25, 2012 Share Posted December 25, 2012 12z RGEM is very cold. All frozen I-78 north, good front end thump everywhere north of the turnpike. Seems that while a consensus is being developed, there are still "some" discrepancies among the various models. How accurate is the RGEM in this time frame? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dssbss Posted December 25, 2012 Share Posted December 25, 2012 Should be interesting around the Reading area...think we will be on the changeover line between ice storm and rain storm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chrisNJ Posted December 25, 2012 Share Posted December 25, 2012 GFS seems to be pretty consistent over the last several runs including the one coming in now...I think anything frozen that falls in the beginning will be washed away quickly with a deluge. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dssbss Posted December 25, 2012 Share Posted December 25, 2012 Where are you referring to? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted December 25, 2012 Share Posted December 25, 2012 GFS seems to be pretty consistent over the last several runs including the one coming in now...I think anything frozen that falls in the beginning will be washed away quickly with a deluge. welcome to the ice box of bucks! I feel the same way based on the general mildness of the cold in the wake of the christmas eve wave. Think there will be 1-2" snow and only brief period of ice before rain Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DavisJ1990 Posted December 25, 2012 Share Posted December 25, 2012 Should be interesting around the Reading area...think we will be on the changeover line between ice storm and rain storm Think he is referring to the new GFS, shows some cold to begin with but quickly changes to rain for the south eastern PA area including Berks! Hope you are doing well. Lets hope this thing continues to shift to the SE... Not set in stone yet.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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