Heisy Posted December 24, 2012 Share Posted December 24, 2012 Tombo ty as always, any snow on dec 30 event? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted December 24, 2012 Share Posted December 24, 2012 people also need to be aware of in situations like this the CAD is underdone usually, but so is the mid level warming Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NaoPos Posted December 24, 2012 Share Posted December 24, 2012 Tombo ty as always, any snow on dec 30 event? check the thread.. ;-) you may like what i've left there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
canderson Posted December 24, 2012 Share Posted December 24, 2012 the wunderground maps has basically coating-2 for fall line to about phoienixville dyl area... 2-4 nw burbs with 4 plus in lehigh valley and 8 plus in pocs You mind giving LNS and MDT readings from that map? Much appreciated, can't see then here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted December 24, 2012 Share Posted December 24, 2012 You mind giving LNS and MDT readings from that map? Much appreciated, can't see then here. lns looks like 1-2..mdt is 4-6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
canderson Posted December 24, 2012 Share Posted December 24, 2012 Thank you sir. Good luck to you guys from Harrisburg - may the cool trend continue. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Porsche Posted December 24, 2012 Share Posted December 24, 2012 Do you see ice as a big threat in our area, or just a cold rainstorm? Thanks Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted December 24, 2012 Share Posted December 24, 2012 Not sure if this was posted, but I compared the 6z GFS Individual ENS to the 12z GFS ind. ens...WOW 12z was so much colder. Some of them would likely even give Bucks/Montco a lot of snow before a changeover... Look for yourself. I thought to myself, maybe it just has to do with the ensemble members smoothing stuff out, however 6z's were much warmer... Pretty interesting... On some of them you can see the 850 line is cutting through TTN and even sometimes FARTHER SOUTH! However, a lot of precip has already fallen so I'm guessing some of them are saying there is a pretty good thump of frozen precip before change? http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/gfsensemble/members/12zf060.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NaoPos Posted December 24, 2012 Share Posted December 24, 2012 18z nam is pretty warm. Most of Lehigh valley would be cold rain up to about ABE hour 57 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
anthonyweather Posted December 24, 2012 Share Posted December 24, 2012 18z nam is pretty warm. Most of Lehigh valley would be cold rain up to about ABE hour 57 im not concerned, nam has been the warm outlier, it still is, while every other model stayed colder, and have gotten colder, maybe nam doesnt pick up on CAD so much Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chubbs Posted December 24, 2012 Share Posted December 24, 2012 Yes. NAM has shifted east a bit but is warmer than other models. Even start would be rain in SE Pa. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NortheastPAWx Posted December 24, 2012 Share Posted December 24, 2012 18z nam is pretty warm. Most of Lehigh valley would be cold rain up to about ABE hour 57 Even the Poconos look quite warm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
anthonyweather Posted December 24, 2012 Share Posted December 24, 2012 Mt holly on board for a mainly frozen event for the LV A PERIOD OF SNOW...SLEET AND/OR FREEZING RAIN IS EXPECTED WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT. SNOWFALL AMOUNTS COULD EXCEED 4 INCHES. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NaoPos Posted December 25, 2012 Share Posted December 25, 2012 0z NAM be supa warm for everyone in the warning area. even the poconos might see ptype issues that run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dan88 Posted December 25, 2012 Share Posted December 25, 2012 RGEM 38 hours 40 hours 44 hours 48 hours Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted December 25, 2012 Share Posted December 25, 2012 GFS looks like it trended colder and even shows 2-3" into the city based off of raleighs snowfall maps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhillyBlizzard17 Posted December 25, 2012 Share Posted December 25, 2012 I wonder if the colder trends continued tomorrow if the city can get in on front end snow? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhillyBlizzard17 Posted December 25, 2012 Share Posted December 25, 2012 GFS looks like it trended colder and even shows 2-3" into the city based off of raleighs snowfall maps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhillyBlizzard17 Posted December 25, 2012 Share Posted December 25, 2012 Sorry just saw that post. I think Philly could get in on the action if this trend continue. Still time Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
anthonyweather Posted December 25, 2012 Share Posted December 25, 2012 Phew 6-10" of snow for Lehigh Valley followed by up to 1/2" of ice. I've been sayin since say one that this would trend colder at the last minute Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted December 25, 2012 Share Posted December 25, 2012 Phew 6-10" of snow for Lehigh Valley followed by up to 1/2" of ice. I've been sayin since say one that this would trend colder at the last minute lol no way 6-10 off the gfs for abe. They are already changed over to sleet by hr 45ish with less than .5 of qpf Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LVblizzard Posted December 25, 2012 Share Posted December 25, 2012 0z UKMET is one of the coldest models yet. .5"-.75" of QPF at 84 with the 850 0C line Lancaster-Reading-Quakertown-New Brunswick. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted December 25, 2012 Share Posted December 25, 2012 Phew 6-10" of snow for Lehigh Valley followed by up to 1/2" of ice. I've been sayin since say one that this would trend colder at the last minute Tombot already responded to the bulk, but I'll mention that its not the last minute yet. Still plenty of waffle time either way. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted December 25, 2012 Share Posted December 25, 2012 0z ggem Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted December 25, 2012 Share Posted December 25, 2012 Tombot already responded to the bulk, but I'll mention that its not the last minute yet. Still plenty of waffle time either way. interesting Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
isnice Posted December 25, 2012 Share Posted December 25, 2012 0z ggem Wow. That looks a bit more significant. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Boreal Posted December 25, 2012 Share Posted December 25, 2012 Wow. That looks a bit more significant. The high to the North in E. Canada grows stronger during each frame of the GGEM Tom posted. Nice little battle going on here. 50-75 mile shifts (either way) over the next 36 hours can mean vast changes for our CWA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
isnice Posted December 25, 2012 Share Posted December 25, 2012 The high to the North in E. Canada grows stronger during each frame of the GGEM Tom posted. Nice little battle going on here. 50-75 mile shifts (either way) over the next 36 hours can mean vast changes for our CWA. With the 00z GGEM, certainly seems like low-end warning criteria for northern parts of the area, especially NW NJ and NE PA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thunder Road Posted December 25, 2012 Share Posted December 25, 2012 RGEM Meteogram for Philadelphia shows about 0.10" falling as snow, and another 0.10" as freezing rain: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thunder Road Posted December 25, 2012 Share Posted December 25, 2012 Also a quick point of order: Hopefully someone can confirm this, but I believe the GGEM is the same as the RGEM inside of 48 hours. Kind of like if the first 84 hours of the GFS were just the NAM. If so, you don't need to repost the GGEM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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