Heisy Posted December 23, 2012 Share Posted December 23, 2012 We cant even get the 50/50 to hold for the Dec 30 event, and now it looks like the heights are rising again @ 168 hrs...ugh Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
anthonyweather Posted December 23, 2012 Share Posted December 23, 2012 in the far suburbs maybe, but not really close to the city. yeah that 3-6 was lehigh valley, 6+ poconos, i guess if you call suburbs 70 miles north LOL Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted December 23, 2012 Share Posted December 23, 2012 We cant even get the 50/50 to hold for the Dec 30 event, and now it looks like the heights are rising again @ 168 hrs...ugh like is aid last week, till that -pna goes away its going to be tough unless its an amazing block... The neg pna argues for cutters. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
anthonyweather Posted December 23, 2012 Share Posted December 23, 2012 Mt Holly THE 12Z GFS ISSLIGHTLY WEST OF THE 12Z ECMWF POSITIONS, BUT BOTH MODELS SHOW AN EQUALLY STRONG SYSTEM. AT THIS VANTAGE POINT...IT LOOKS LIKE A RAIN EVENT SOUTH AND EAST OF THE I-95 CORRIDOR WITH PRECIP INCREASINGLY IN A WINTER FORM HEADING NORTH AND WEST. ADVISORIES AND/OR WATCHES MAY BE NEEDED FOR THIS SYSTEM IF THINGS HOLD TOGETHER...SO STAY TUNED Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phlwx Posted December 23, 2012 Share Posted December 23, 2012 yeah that 3-6 was lehigh valley, 6+ poconos, i guess if you call suburbs 70 miles north LOL Allentown itself probably gets an inch or two...better #'s north of you...you're right on the edge. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Voyager Posted December 23, 2012 Share Posted December 23, 2012 As of right now, if the NWS forecast were to verify, it would be an icy nightmare up this way. This forecast as written almost resembles the Valentine's Day 2007 final result...minus the flash freeze at the end. Tuesday Night: A slight chance of snow after 4am. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 23. North wind around 7 mph. Chance of precipitation is 20%. Wednesday: A chance of snow before 1pm, then rain, snow, and sleet. High near 32. Chance of precipitation is 90%. New precipitation amounts between a half and three quarters of an inch possible. Wednesday Night: Rain and snow. Low around 27. Chance of precipitation is 80%. Thursday: A chance of snow showers. Cloudy, with a high near 30. Chance of precipitation is 40%. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
anthonyweather Posted December 23, 2012 Share Posted December 23, 2012 Allentown itself probably gets an inch or two...better #'s north of you...you're right on the edge. That's 12z? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phlwx Posted December 23, 2012 Share Posted December 23, 2012 That's 12z? yes Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
anthonyweather Posted December 23, 2012 Share Posted December 23, 2012 yes That's quite a bit warmer than 00z than. Euro doesn't have accum ice or ip maps huh? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted December 23, 2012 Share Posted December 23, 2012 That's quite a bit warmer than 00z than. Euro doesn't have accum ice or ip maps huh? thats because the run was warmer. It was further northwest than the 0z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowwors2 Posted December 23, 2012 Share Posted December 23, 2012 did I miss 18z gfs postings on next two events? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
anthonyweather Posted December 24, 2012 Share Posted December 24, 2012 00z Nam still a rain storm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted December 24, 2012 Share Posted December 24, 2012 00z Nam still a rain storm don't expect it to change just not good for anyone Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LVblizzard Posted December 24, 2012 Share Posted December 24, 2012 GFS has a few hours of frozen precip north of I-78 before the changeover to rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted December 24, 2012 Share Posted December 24, 2012 GFS made a jump to it's more eastern ensemble member tracks and near the euro, still a rainstorm for everyone here interested but an increased chance of a start with 1-2" snow in theory one more jump like that could introduce significant winter weather to areas north and west Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowwors2 Posted December 24, 2012 Share Posted December 24, 2012 GFS has a few hours of frozen precip north of I-78 before the changeover to rain. how far north would one have to go to see all snow?? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hazwoper Posted December 24, 2012 Share Posted December 24, 2012 The Tughill Plateau. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dan88 Posted December 24, 2012 Share Posted December 24, 2012 GGEM 64 hours 68 hours 72 hours 76 hours Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LVblizzard Posted December 24, 2012 Share Posted December 24, 2012 Euro shifts east. Poconos stay frozen for most of the storm. Even the outer Philly burbs see some snow to start. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phlwx Posted December 24, 2012 Share Posted December 24, 2012 Euro doesn't change much regarding 12/26 in terms of final outcome. Poconos will have ptype issues and probably go rain at some point however they start frozen. The storm is slightly weaker on the model, hence a bit colder north, but the general track idea still holds from 12z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phlwx Posted December 24, 2012 Share Posted December 24, 2012 per wunderground the snow/no snow line generally is Allentown-Reading-Ephrata-York. Heaviest snows generally Central PA mountains through Scranton and north. one three hour window Wednesday evening on snow. Congrats Williamsport. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
negative-nao Posted December 24, 2012 Share Posted December 24, 2012 What does the oz Euro say about the December 30th Storm ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phlwx Posted December 24, 2012 Share Posted December 24, 2012 What does the oz Euro say about the December 30th Storm ? Read the 12/30 thread. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NaoPos Posted December 24, 2012 Share Posted December 24, 2012 ^^ Hehe Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phlwx Posted December 24, 2012 Share Posted December 24, 2012 6z GFS snow through 10 PM Wednesday night. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted December 24, 2012 Author Share Posted December 24, 2012 Blocking is stronger this run fwiw. Probably too little too late: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LVblizzard Posted December 24, 2012 Share Posted December 24, 2012 Blocking is stronger this run fwiw. Probably too little too late: Maybe for Philly...I'm still holding out hope in the Lehigh Valley for frozen precip to start, and the models look to be trending that way. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted December 24, 2012 Author Share Posted December 24, 2012 Maybe for Philly...I'm still holding out hope in the Lehigh Valley for frozen precip to start, and the models look to be trending that way. That vortmax coming into the deep South is just so darn strong, it will negate the effects of the block. Not sure it will force redevelopment (Miller B ) in time to save most in this subforum. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LVblizzard Posted December 24, 2012 Share Posted December 24, 2012 GFS continues to trend colder...Poconos still change to rain but not before getting clocked with a bunch of snow and ice. It looks like even Bucks and Montgomery counties get a couple hours of frozen precip before the changeover. Edit: UKMET looks similar. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
anthonyweather Posted December 24, 2012 Share Posted December 24, 2012 GFS continues to trend colder...Poconos still change to rain but not before getting clocked with a bunch of snow and ice. It looks like even Bucks and Montgomery counties get a couple hours of frozen precip before the changeover. Edit: UKMET looks similar. What's the front end thump look like for us? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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