Thunder Road Posted December 23, 2012 Share Posted December 23, 2012 Off Wunderground maps, people north of a UKT-RDG-MDT line stay snow through at least hour 99. Probably 3-6" up there with 6"+ in the Pocs. Even the immediate Philly burbs (essentially northwest of US 1) sees around an inch before changeover. Possibly 2-3" DYL-PTW. So now we're intrigued again, haha. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blinkers88 Posted December 23, 2012 Share Posted December 23, 2012 Dr. No says yes?? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
anthonyweather Posted December 23, 2012 Share Posted December 23, 2012 per wunderground snow maps off euro... 1-3 for nw burbs...lehigh valley 4+ that looks generous off the maps, looks like more Good, at least that brings back hope Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
96blizz Posted December 23, 2012 Share Posted December 23, 2012 HPC plots the low just south of LI like the Euro. 6z NAM, while still very much meh, does go East a bit --- but never really transfers. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phlwx Posted December 23, 2012 Share Posted December 23, 2012 given trend, not getting hopes up on one Euro hiccup. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Voyager Posted December 23, 2012 Share Posted December 23, 2012 Didn't we go through this 2 years ago with a storm that kept trending toward the fishes until being brought back west at the "last minute"? Could there be a little Christmas magic again this year, but only in reverse and the storm trends back east? Perhaps the Euro is on to something... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
96blizz Posted December 23, 2012 Share Posted December 23, 2012 given trend, not getting hopes up on one Euro hiccup. Certainly understand and agree. For me up in Sussex County, NJ (formerly Media, PA), 'hiccups' could have a major impact. I still like to jump into this forum to read analysis ---as I always found it top notch. Thanks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted December 23, 2012 Share Posted December 23, 2012 Didn't we go through this 2 years ago with a storm that kept trending toward the fishes until being brought back west at the "last minute"? Could there be a little Christmas magic again this year, but only in reverse and the storm trends back east? Perhaps the Euro is on to something... The problem right now is most of us here in this region are going to need so much help to get this into a wintry threat I don't think we can get it. For the all the folks near the coast or in Philly/S NJ we need that coastal transfer to occur early enough to get the low off the Delmarva or ACY to bomb out and give us a chance for snow behind the storm. If the transfer occurs too far west and the low tracks more into the CT river valley or Hudson Valley we downslope and don't get anything behind it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chubbs Posted December 23, 2012 Share Posted December 23, 2012 With the east shift in the Euro and the ukie staying offshore interior areas still have a good shot. GFS is now on the on the west side of guidance. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phlwx Posted December 23, 2012 Share Posted December 23, 2012 With the east shift in the Euro and the ukie staying offshore interior areas still have a good shot. GFS is now on the on the west side of guidance. UK verbatim ends up as rain south/east of 222. Whether it snows front end or not you can't tell based on the maps I have but it does warm the below 850 up above freezing. If, by interior, you're talking Central PA and Poconos above I-80, I can agree with this a bit. That said, it doesn't look *good* as of now for Philly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phlwx Posted December 23, 2012 Share Posted December 23, 2012 FWIW the Euro Ens track is right over Philly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chubbs Posted December 23, 2012 Share Posted December 23, 2012 UK verbatim ends up as rain south/east of 222. Whether it snows front end or not you can't tell based on the maps I have but it does warm the below 850 up above freezing. If, by interior, you're talking Central PA, I can agree with this a bit. That said, it doesn't look *good* as of now for Philly. Agree it doesn't look good for philly. Philly always needed everything to break right with warm ocean 50 miles away. Interior sections have more wiggle room. As usual need to be 1-2 days out to pin down details. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chubbs Posted December 23, 2012 Share Posted December 23, 2012 FWIW the Euro Ens track is right over Philly. Which supports the Euro Op run. GEFS support the GFS. Still too much uncertainty to pin down details. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mikeymac5306 Posted December 23, 2012 Share Posted December 23, 2012 Question. Are we still talking about ice in Philly? Or is it too warm for that as well.? I noticed dtn took out all the snow on their forecast this morning. Looks like a good 1.5 inch rain storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chubbs Posted December 23, 2012 Share Posted December 23, 2012 Question. Are we still talking about ice in Philly? Or is it too warm for that as well.? I noticed dtn took out all the snow on their forecast this morning. Looks like a good 1.5 inch rain storm. Unlikely in Philly. More likely in LV+SV with Euro track and if cold air damming is strong. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted December 23, 2012 Share Posted December 23, 2012 Question. Are we still talking about ice in Philly? Or is it too warm for that as well.? I noticed dtn took out all the snow on their forecast this morning. Looks like a good 1.5 inch rain storm. might be a little, but if the current forecasts are right its a driving rain storm pretty much. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rainshadow Posted December 23, 2012 Share Posted December 23, 2012 given trend, not getting hopes up on one Euro hiccup. I can't see it as well from home but the dp/dt on the euro night runs only look pretty similar. Regardless south and east of the fall line the antecedent conditions are not that promising (unless the Christmas Eve low verifies more robust) and while having the nao trend positive is what one would want to have it turn the corner, if the initial low forms that far west, a steadier state nao looks like would have done a better trick. Have a Merry Christmas. No ice please. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chubbs Posted December 23, 2012 Share Posted December 23, 2012 12z GFS has shiifted a little east. Not far enough to save us but a step toward Euro and other models. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted December 23, 2012 Share Posted December 23, 2012 12z GFS has shiifted a little east. Not far enough to save us but a step toward Euro and other models. yea, a cold rain became a colder rain lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NaoPos Posted December 23, 2012 Share Posted December 23, 2012 yea, a cold rain became a colder rain lol Phl almost hits 50 on this run ;-) not too cold Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted December 23, 2012 Share Posted December 23, 2012 Phl almost hits 50 on this run ;-) not too cold well 6z had 56 lol, so a colder rain Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blinkers88 Posted December 23, 2012 Share Posted December 23, 2012 Yeah I don't understand that at all ^^ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dan88 Posted December 23, 2012 Share Posted December 23, 2012 GGEM 78 hours 84 hours 90 hours Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted December 23, 2012 Share Posted December 23, 2012 I think the 00z EURO shows some front end snow which is how it got that accumulation map. I can't tell 100% but at 96 hrs the 850 0deg line runs through C NJ. There is a low forming in VA. So I'm guessing it was showing some front end snow. Highly doubt it though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chubbs Posted December 23, 2012 Share Posted December 23, 2012 didn't see this posted...but this was the 0z euro snowfall from last night... I honestly don't know how it gets this, but it is what it is.. I saw another Euro map posted in the NE thread. Not as bullish but not bad: 3-6 in phl suburbs, heavier in NE+Central PA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
anthonyweather Posted December 23, 2012 Share Posted December 23, 2012 NWS still going mostly frozen for Lehigh Valley, Wednesday night forecast - Freezing rain low 29 .. Yikes Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted December 23, 2012 Share Posted December 23, 2012 euro is a little further west and warmer obviously..not as generous with the fron end dump...track right over phl. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Animal Posted December 23, 2012 Share Posted December 23, 2012 euro is a little further west and warmer obviously..not as generous with the fron end dump...track right over phl. how does it look for NW NJ. I assume not great Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted December 23, 2012 Share Posted December 23, 2012 how does it look for NW NJ. I assume not great you get some front end snow, but nothing like the 0z run Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thunder Road Posted December 23, 2012 Share Posted December 23, 2012 I saw another Euro map posted in the NE thread. Not as bullish but not bad: 3-6 in phl suburbs, heavier in NE+Central PA. in the far suburbs maybe, but not really close to the city. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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