NaoPos Posted December 22, 2012 Share Posted December 22, 2012 @96, the 556 h5 thickness is roughly N&W of Scranton though STate college trough central wc ... The 0z had this contour from south of NYC to Philly to central md. Yucky yucky height rises... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
isnice Posted December 22, 2012 Share Posted December 22, 2012 @96, the 556 h5 thickness is roughly N&W of Scranton though STate college trough central wc ... The 0z had this contour from south of NYC to Philly to central md. Yucky yucky height rises... Where is the slp? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted December 22, 2012 Share Posted December 22, 2012 @96, the 556 h5 thickness is roughly N&W of Scranton though STate college trough central wc ... The 0z had this contour from south of NYC to Philly to central md. Yucky yucky height rises... Its like feast or famine..you need the christmas wave stronger, but a stronger christmas wave may argue for a warmer outcome. This would then set up the second wave because the confluence would be better. A weak christmas ever storm doesn't drag in the northern stream and colder air to supress the hgts...pick your poison... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted December 22, 2012 Share Posted December 22, 2012 Where is the slp? hr 108 its over dc..rain for everyone Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChescoWx Posted December 22, 2012 Share Posted December 22, 2012 Tom - as we all know this is far from over....expect yet another solution at 0z this evening - either way should be some interesting weather over the next few weeks and a White Christmas to boot! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thunder Road Posted December 22, 2012 Share Posted December 22, 2012 @96, the 556 h5 thickness is roughly N&W of Scranton though STate college trough central wc ... The 0z had this contour from south of NYC to Philly to central md. Yucky yucky height rises... height or thickness? I hope you mean the 500 mb height and not the 1000-500 mb thickness, haha Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NaoPos Posted December 22, 2012 Share Posted December 22, 2012 It's so ugly I won't even give a run down... Gfs'ish Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NaoPos Posted December 22, 2012 Share Posted December 22, 2012 height or thickness? I hope you mean the 500 mb height and not the 1000-500 mb thickness, haha Yea, H5 heights* sorry, still waking up. Thicknesses follow soon after though ! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
isnice Posted December 22, 2012 Share Posted December 22, 2012 Its like feast or famine..you need the christmas wave stronger, but a stronger christmas wave may argue for a warmer outcome. This would then set up the second wave because the confluence would be better. A weak christmas ever storm doesn't drag in the northern stream and colder air to supress the hgts...pick your poison... Yup, pretty much. Except, if we get the Christmas storm to set up the next one I'm afraid yet again something else will go wrong. I'll cash in my couple inches please. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted December 22, 2012 Share Posted December 22, 2012 also, another cutter coming around the new years edit: nvm, it develops a secondary but is still rain for everyone south of the pocs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
anthonyweather Posted December 22, 2012 Share Posted December 22, 2012 Alright I'm out for a couple days, the negativity in here after ONE model run is absurd Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted December 22, 2012 Share Posted December 22, 2012 Alright I'm out for a couple days, the negativity in here after ONE model run is absurd what negativity? Most are just saying what the model is hsowing, i don't see that being negative, more realistic. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RowanBrandon Posted December 22, 2012 Share Posted December 22, 2012 Alright I'm out for a couple days, the negativity in here after ONE model run is absurd The fat lady is warming up, sir..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quakertown needs snow Posted December 22, 2012 Share Posted December 22, 2012 Alright I'm out for a couple days, the negativity in here after ONE model run is absurd they are posting what the models see Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NaoPos Posted December 22, 2012 Share Posted December 22, 2012 also, another cutter coming around the new years edit: nvm, it develops a secondary but is still rain for everyone south of the pocs. yeah, Miller B..clipper transfers to the coast Of nyc.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
anthonyweather Posted December 22, 2012 Share Posted December 22, 2012 what negativity? Most are just saying what the model is hsowing, i don't see that being negative, more realistic. Everyone preaches on here about not jumping off ship from one model run, yet they do. That's why I stay off accuweather forums, it's downright depressing over there. Mainly because its all people living in either New York or the coast, both places that need everything to work out perfectly for snow. The way the models are still jumping around on the clipper I just don't even see it possible to accurately ponder what's gonna happen wed\thursday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thunder Road Posted December 22, 2012 Share Posted December 22, 2012 Alright I'm out for a couple days, the negativity in here after ONE model run is absurd Well the Euro has yet to have a "good" solution for I-95'ers. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NaoPos Posted December 22, 2012 Share Posted December 22, 2012 ps..blame Ray. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
anthonyweather Posted December 22, 2012 Share Posted December 22, 2012 The fat lady is warming up, sir..... Man I try to stay positive lol, last year there was no snow, which equals no money, it's my first year at Penndot and I wanna plow some snow haha Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thunder Road Posted December 22, 2012 Share Posted December 22, 2012 fwiw the 0z FIM was an epic hit, the 12z is rain. So as of 12z Something wintry this way comes: UKMET GGEM NOGAPS (I think?) Nasomuch: GFS GEFS ECMWF FIM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
anthonyweather Posted December 22, 2012 Share Posted December 22, 2012 Well the Euro has yet to have a "good" solution for I-95'ers. It's hard to decipher much on any forums, Philly this Philly that lol, I'm north of Allentown Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NaoPos Posted December 22, 2012 Share Posted December 22, 2012 Everyone preaches on here about not jumping off ship from one model run, yet they do. That's why I stay off accuweather forums, it's downright depressing over there. Mainly because its all people living in either New York or the coast, both places that need everything to work out perfectly for snow. The way the models are still jumping around on the clipper I just don't even see it possible to accurately ponder what's gonna happen wed\thursday. The euro last night trended warmer, the gfs runs of 0,6,and 12z all did. So did their respective ensembles. So it's not 1 run. We call it how we see it. We'll still tune in for the next few runs. However, it's not a good trend. Call us pessimistic, negative whatever. We're not here to hurt your feelings, but we're also not gonna sugar coat it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NaoPos Posted December 22, 2012 Share Posted December 22, 2012 It's hard to decipher much on any forums, Philly this Philly that lol, I'm north of Allentown Are you kidding? Tombo gives the PBP for mt holly warning area, thunder road hands out soundings for anyone who asks like a pedo handing out free candy around an elementary school. You just have to read trough the posts man. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Voyager Posted December 22, 2012 Share Posted December 22, 2012 It's hard to decipher much on any forums, Philly this Philly that lol, I'm north of Allentown That's the thing. This forum is populated largely by I-95'ers. Most of the discussion is going to center around that area. I just try to read between the lines as to what might happen up this way. It's why I made my post in OT about it. I'm too far from the core posters in both this forum and the Central PA forum. A veritable AMWX "no man's land". That being said, back to the storm. Strangely, I wonder if this upcoming period is going to feature rain, cold, rain, cold, etc. It seems that lately it is VERY difficult to get a true snowSTORM around the region. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted December 22, 2012 Share Posted December 22, 2012 I would say since I started looking at models around 10 years ago the MRF/GFS/AVN whatever you want to call it is 90% of the time SE/SUPPRESSED 3-5 days before the event. The fact that its way west right now tells you something. I'm not saying hope isn't lost for interior, but anyone in coastal plain near the city needs to hope that this storm creates a nice 50/50 so that the new years storm develops a 2ndary farther south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
anthonyweather Posted December 22, 2012 Share Posted December 22, 2012 Are you kidding? Tombo gives the PBP for mt holly warning area, thunder road hands out soundings for anyone who asks like a pedo handing out free candy around an elementary school. You just have to read trough the posts man. No you guys are pretty good with that , and what I've been seeing posted the Lehigh valley northward still looks in good shape, I'm just hoping for more snow and less ice Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted December 22, 2012 Share Posted December 22, 2012 I would say since I started looking at models around 10 years ago the MRF/GFS/AVN whatever you want to call it is 90% of the time SE/SUPPRESSED 3-5 days before the event. The fact that its way west right now tells you something. I'm not saying hope isn't lost for interior, but anyone in coastal plain near the city needs to hope that this storm creates a nice 50/50 so that the new years storm develops a 2ndary farther south. Its suppressed in a classic East Coast setup most of the time, however; in split flow patterns or primary-coastal transfers it can often be too far west or north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quakertown needs snow Posted December 22, 2012 Share Posted December 22, 2012 ps..blame Ray. cr$p, he's still in town? wonderful. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
penndotguy Posted December 22, 2012 Share Posted December 22, 2012 Man I try to stay positive lol, last year there was no snow, which equals no money, it's my first year at Penndot and I wanna plow some snow haha Watch what ya wish for after a snowy Icy winter you will have had enough of sitting in the seat of that Mack banging around dealing with all the idiot drivers. My Dad did it for 40yrs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thunder Road Posted December 22, 2012 Share Posted December 22, 2012 I would say since I started looking at models around 10 years ago the MRF/GFS/AVN whatever you want to call it is 90% of the time SE/SUPPRESSED 3-5 days before the event. The fact that its way west right now tells you something. I'm not saying hope isn't lost for interior, but anyone in coastal plain near the city needs to hope that this storm creates a nice 50/50 so that the new years storm develops a 2ndary farther south. I'd say this is more of a rule for classic Miller A type storms. When you have a pretty tight consensus like you do right now I wouldn't be banking on too much of a late trend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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