tombo82685 Posted December 22, 2012 Share Posted December 22, 2012 Tombo, if you don't mind, what is the euro showing further west for both the christmas storm and the 26th out towards central and western pa? for pit on christmas wave .1-.25 looks cold enough, but once south of the city the 850 line starts creeping in...for dec 28th event around .75 appears to be all snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thunder Road Posted December 22, 2012 Share Posted December 22, 2012 Tom do you have the text output for 114 and 120 for PHL or PNE? I'm really curious if we squeeze out anything frozen before 120. Sounds like we might get a few inches before the changeover. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Paweatherguy1 Posted December 22, 2012 Share Posted December 22, 2012 for pit on christmas wave .1-.25 looks cold enough, but once south of the city the 850 line starts creeping in...for dec 28th event around .75 appears to be all snow. Sounds decent to me. Thanks! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NaoPos Posted December 22, 2012 Share Posted December 22, 2012 subtle chnages in Canada this run that are negatives for coastal plain peeps... verbatim of course. we'll see how it goes from here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thunder Road Posted December 22, 2012 Share Posted December 22, 2012 subtle chnages in Canada this run that are negatives for coastal plain peeps... verbatim of course. we'll see how it goes from here. still an improvement from 12z though. At least the secondary moves offshore before Philly's latitude this time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted December 22, 2012 Share Posted December 22, 2012 Tom do you have the text output for 114 and 120 for PHL or PNE? I'm really curious if we squeeze out anything frozen before 120. Sounds like we might get a few inches before the changeover. no i don't get the text output...i wouldn't rule out an inch or two...though the red flag is the thicknesses are pretty warm..hr 114 has the 546 line just south of phl..then hr 120 its up by ukt.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thunder Road Posted December 22, 2012 Share Posted December 22, 2012 no i don't get the text output...i wouldn't rule out an inch or two...though the red flag is the thicknesses are pretty warm..hr 114 has the 546 line just south of phl..then hr 120 its up by ukt.. yuck. ok, thanks Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phlwx Posted December 22, 2012 Share Posted December 22, 2012 no i don't get the text output...i wouldn't rule out an inch or two...though the red flag is the thicknesses are pretty warm..hr 114 has the 546 line just south of phl..then hr 120 its up by ukt.. yeah...wunderground has an inch or so in the city before changeover. Better (not great) northwest but even there they change to rain before the end. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted December 22, 2012 Author Share Posted December 22, 2012 Models still showing a strong ice signal N and W of 95. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chubbs Posted December 22, 2012 Share Posted December 22, 2012 06z GFS has similar track to 00z but has a little stronger high pressure in Quebec and is a little colder. A snow/ice/snow or snow/ice/rain/snow event for I-95 to far N+W suburbs and primarily snow in LV and Lanco. snow/ice rain line shifts NW through area and then retreats to shore. Snow lingers in area as storm pulls away. Rough snow amounts: 3-7" in SE corner of Pa, 8-12+ over rest of Pa. 0-4" for S Jersey+ N De. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChescoWx Posted December 22, 2012 Share Posted December 22, 2012 Agree Ralph Ice Storm is strongly signaled but we both know this run will not verify - I would bet on a blend between last night's extreme and this morning's - however for sheep and giggles here is the way the Wxsim plays out a very significant winter storm for the NW Philly burbs 12/26 (total precip 1.23" all frozen) 12noon - IP develops temp 34.6 3PM Heavy IP temp 31.6 Moderate to Heavy IP continue until 6am when it turns to Heavy Snow Snow ending by 10am on the 27th The Wxsim paints a total snow (snow and IP) accumulation of 2 to 3" along with quite a bit of ZR Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chubbs Posted December 22, 2012 Share Posted December 22, 2012 Paul - If Wxsim is using the 06 GFS it is overdoing the sleet up there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted December 22, 2012 Share Posted December 22, 2012 This is going to be an ugly run of the gfs for this next system...northern stream diving in more, hgts rising along east coast..stronger storm down south and further northwest. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted December 22, 2012 Share Posted December 22, 2012 jump off the bridge run here, and just as the euro got east into a classic I95 storm look as well on 0z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phlwx Posted December 22, 2012 Share Posted December 22, 2012 12z GFS is a nut kick regarding that second storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chubbs Posted December 22, 2012 Share Posted December 22, 2012 Yup. Quite a shift. Back to where we were a couple of days ago. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted December 22, 2012 Share Posted December 22, 2012 GFS said I think ill take the furthest NW most ugly ensemble from overnight and go with that Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cary Posted December 22, 2012 Share Posted December 22, 2012 jump off the bridge run here, and just as the euro got east into a classic I95 storm look as well on 0z Jump off the bridge over a model run several days out? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChescoWx Posted December 22, 2012 Share Posted December 22, 2012 I bet by 18z it is a suppressed solution....GFS means nada at this point for the post Christmas event. All signs continue to point to a signficant winter weather event with this one - do not be fooled Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChescoWx Posted December 22, 2012 Share Posted December 22, 2012 All that said if the 12z Euro says go west young man.....then I will start to buy it. But find it hard to believe this pattern won't pop a secondary somewhere on the coast Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted December 22, 2012 Share Posted December 22, 2012 from other threads Ukmet does NOT have the primary driving toward cleveland, appears similar to 0Z, no idea on boundary layers etc also GGEM is an east coast I95er wsshhhh Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 22, 2012 Share Posted December 22, 2012 GGEM and Ukie are near the benchmark. Nogaps also. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chubbs Posted December 22, 2012 Share Posted December 22, 2012 ukie has been very consistent for past 4-5 runs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NaoPos Posted December 22, 2012 Share Posted December 22, 2012 Canadian: GEFS... a wee bit warmer.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FPizz Posted December 22, 2012 Share Posted December 22, 2012 Maybe the placement of that 1034 high is helping a bit Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nflwxman Posted December 22, 2012 Share Posted December 22, 2012 Canadian: GEFS... a wee bit warmer.. can you post the earlier panel on the cmc? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thunder Road Posted December 22, 2012 Share Posted December 22, 2012 GEFS... a wee bit warmer.. That's even more of a kick in the nuts than the op. One op run isn't much to worry about but when the whole ensemble mean takes a shift like that... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NaoPos Posted December 22, 2012 Share Posted December 22, 2012 Euro bout to our a dagger in the hopes of weenies in se pa... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted December 22, 2012 Share Posted December 22, 2012 Euro bout to our a dagger in the hopes of weenies in se pa... yea that christmas storm being weaker really diminishes the confluence and the hgts are a lot higher to start...continue... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quakertown needs snow Posted December 22, 2012 Share Posted December 22, 2012 Euro bout to our a dagger in the hopes of weenies in se pa... thanks Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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