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Storm Threat Dec 26-28 Period


Ralph Wiggum

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Thinking of February 2010, but not sure if that counts. Other than that, off the top of my head PDII (2003) comes to mind.

Feb 2010 was more like 72 hours (first ended on the 6th, next one started on the 9th). PDII was more like 24 hours, but not all areas saw significant snow. At TTN there was less than a half inch.

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Heck of an ice storm just outside the cities...Stronger primary really advects the warm air aloft, so not much snow this run. Continued theme of 0z/12z runs are phased more, while the off runs are less phased.

Yeah. Very similar to 12z except a little colder at start. Probably all frozen in N+W suburbs.

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Heck of an ice storm just outside the cities...Stronger primary really advects the warm air aloft, so not much snow this run. Continued theme of 0z/12z runs are phased more, while the off runs are less phased.

Is it more sleet or freezing rain? This storm is beginning to remind me of Valentine's Day 2007, which was an epic sleet-fest in the Lehigh Valley.

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Heck of an ice storm just outside the cities...Stronger primary really advects the warm air aloft, so not much snow this run. Continued theme of 0z/12z runs are phased more, while the off runs are less phased.

yeah, i think the difference between the 0z gfs and 12z and 18z gfs were:

1. 0z, 18z gfs stronger than 12z with the xmas vort

2. the 12z and 0z GFS bring the shortwaves associated with 27th event onshore stronger, and a little deeper. the 18z gfs had them seperated a little bit more. Hence, a more amp'd solution @ h5.

3. the 0z GFS had trouble keeping the trough closed off ( every other frame is seemed to open back up) 12z didnt have that problem. obviously, the 18z never really closed off till the transfer.

thats my breakdown of the GFS runs today. i know its 5 days away, but these little differnces here and there are really gonna determine how i-95 makes out.

seems like the models bring the shortwave onshore 12z monday fwiw*

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verbatim a real slop fest

at KPNE: 0.17" snow, then 0.37" sleet and freezing rain, then another 0.23" snow. 2 m temps don't get above 32 F so even with 850's torching it sure is an interesting storm.

at KABE: 0.28" snow, 0.19" snow/sleet mix, then flurries

You all know where to look so no point in breaking it down for everyone's backyard, but the point is it's still a lot more interesting than a plain rain storm

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verbatim a real slop fest

at KPNE: 0.17" snow, then 0.37" sleet and freezing rain, then another 0.23" snow. 2 m temps don't get above 32 F so even with 850's torching it sure is an interesting storm.

at KABE: 0.28" snow, 0.19" snow/sleet mix, then flurries

You all know where to look so no point in breaking it down for everyone's backyard, but the point is it's still a lot more interesting than a plain rain storm

Hoping Hurricane is back in time for these upcoming events....all the local tv mets analysis these past few days has been pretty lacking/conservative!!

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Hoping Hurricane is back in time for these upcoming events....all the local tv mets analysis these past few days has been pretty lacking/conservative!!

As they should be. This is FAR from a lock, and people don't care how close the rain/snow line is if it's plain rain in their backyard, so no need hyping things up yet.

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0z GGEM. Drops a bomb on us. 540 Line runs N-S right along I-95 but their precip type algorithm spits out rain for most of the 5-county area at 132. Still though, if we take half of what falls 120-132 and all of what falls before 120 Philly would get probably at least 0.50" (maybe even 0.75") of snow before the changeover.

P6_GZ_D5_PN_132_0000.gif

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As they should be. This is FAR from a lock, and people don't care how close the rain/snow line is if it's plain rain in their backyard, so no need hyping things up yet.

Agreed, as to the "rain/snow line" delineation this early out, but Cecily was the only one giving any kind of analysis as to the possible scenarios!!

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hr 120 secondary has taken over fully over fredricksburg va...hr 114 had lgt precip moving in with 850 line over southern del..frz line quarryville, pa-wayne, pa-ttn-nyc

hr 120 has 850 line toms river then through northern chester and lanc co..frz line abe-rdg-mdt....25-.5 for everyone... .5-.75 lanc co,del co, phl co, all of south jerz... .75-1 all of del except new castle co

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