tombo82685 Posted December 21, 2012 Share Posted December 21, 2012 great run...solid 6-10 for us. too bad it's the 18z and 5 days out. yea, not sure if you have noticed...but the off runs are less phased weaker waves. While the other ones are phased more. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NaoPos Posted December 21, 2012 Share Posted December 21, 2012 The difference begins with the xmas vort digging a little more, better consolidated. this causes confluence out ahead of this shortwave... the shortwave cant amplify soo early. in fact, it closes off minimally for 1 3hr timeperiod and stays open most of the run. NIce run, its basically exaclty what we need for us city folks .... thought i saw a dry slot over gilbertsville.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted December 21, 2012 Share Posted December 21, 2012 south jersey picks up a couple inches as the storm pulls away Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phlwx Posted December 21, 2012 Share Posted December 21, 2012 yea, not sure if you have noticed...but the off runs are less phased weaker waves. While the other ones are phased more. yep but it seems they are starting to converge a bit on a track...the spread between 0/12 and 6/18 is decreasing some. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RowanBrandon Posted December 21, 2012 Share Posted December 21, 2012 A better track and it's still wet. I need a break from this lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted December 21, 2012 Share Posted December 21, 2012 The difference begins with the xmas vort digging a little more, better consolidated. this causes confluence out ahead of this shortwave... the shortwave cant amplify soo early. in fact, it closes off minimally for 1 3hr timeperiod and stays open most of the run. NIce run, its basically exaclty what we need for us city folks .... thought i saw a dry slot over gilbertsville.... slot this Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted December 21, 2012 Share Posted December 21, 2012 A better track and it's still wet. I need a break from this lol. you need that christmas wave to go further south, it drags the confluence in more so and makes everything colder. You also need the primary to transfer faster and coastal to be a bit further east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted December 21, 2012 Share Posted December 21, 2012 sv snow map Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NaoPos Posted December 21, 2012 Share Posted December 21, 2012 slot this hahaha HEYO! that was a def WEENIE run for us SEPA'ers..white xmas, followed by something big. almost textbook how that lead shortwave dampens heights, doesn't allow that lead shortwave to amplify too much, and the cold stays. this is going to be a tantalizing 5 days.... should go quick though. no xmas shopping done yet, working 36hrs straight xmas eve-xmas afternoon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted December 21, 2012 Share Posted December 21, 2012 Trying to remember the last time there were two significant snows 48 hours apart Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted December 21, 2012 Share Posted December 21, 2012 little off topic, but the night after this storm on the euro has lows 10-15 from pa tpk north Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
negative-nao Posted December 21, 2012 Share Posted December 21, 2012 Has the 18z GFS started yet ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted December 21, 2012 Share Posted December 21, 2012 Has the 18z GFS started yet ? yup it's already snowed on this area twice and is lining up number three Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ellinwood Posted December 21, 2012 Share Posted December 21, 2012 Snow maps for the latest four runs of the GFS Op. for the 26th-27th: A bit of a southeast trend over the last couple of runs, but we're still 5 days out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted December 21, 2012 Share Posted December 21, 2012 GEFS http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/gfsensemble/18zgfsensemblep12120.gif http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/gfsensemble/18zgfsensemblep12132.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chubbs Posted December 21, 2012 Share Posted December 21, 2012 GEFS 18z GEFS are colder particularly as the storm is approaching and stronger indicating the spread is decreasing Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mitchell Gaines Posted December 21, 2012 Share Posted December 21, 2012 I'm glad I'm back in Kentucky on leave for this one! Best of luck to all for snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChescoWx Posted December 21, 2012 Share Posted December 21, 2012 Ran the Wxsim module with the 18z GFS and NAM and here is what it spits out (yes I know it won't happen like this but...fun to look at) After the 6.3" we receive here in NW Chester County on Christmas Eve the snow begins again at around 10am on the 26th 10am - Light Snow temp 31.0 12pm - Mod Snow temp 33.1 3pm - Heavy Snow temp 31.9 (2.0") 6pm - Heavy Snow temp 30.7 (6.0") 9pm - Heavy Snow temp 30.6 (11.0") 12am - Light Snow ending 31.3 (14.0") = total snow on the ground around 20.0" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted December 22, 2012 Author Share Posted December 22, 2012 Paul, have I ever told you how much I love wxsim? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ago4snow Posted December 22, 2012 Share Posted December 22, 2012 The 500 mb setup from December 25, 1966 does show some interesting similarities to the 126 hr GFS prog. That storm produced 12"-20" inches in SE Pa. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
96blizz Posted December 22, 2012 Share Posted December 22, 2012 little off topic, but the night after this storm on the euro has lows 10-15 from pa tpk north Good call man. It's easy to get wrapped up in the snow events, but the fact that things stay cold could mean we're in for a sustainable period of a wintry landscape for the first time in a while. Nice. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thunder Road Posted December 22, 2012 Share Posted December 22, 2012 I'm only counting up frozen precip since who cares about rain, amirite? KPNE - 0.74" snow, 0.26" sleet KPHL - 0.55" snow, 0.47" sleet/rain mix KTTN - 0.91" snow, 0.26" sleet/snow KDYL - 1.11" all snow KABE - 1.06" all snow KRDG - 1.04" all snow KMPO - 0.79" all snow KMIV - 0.30" with melting Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scummyratguy Posted December 22, 2012 Share Posted December 22, 2012 Apologize in advance for mby post- Could I bother you to post the qpf at LNS? I don't have access to it... thanks! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thunder Road Posted December 22, 2012 Share Posted December 22, 2012 Apologize in advance for mby post- Could I bother you to post the qpf at LNS? I don't have access to it... thanks! No prob! 1.06", all snow Here's the link: http://wxweb.meteost...shtml?text=KLNS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
I-83 BLIZZARD Posted December 22, 2012 Share Posted December 22, 2012 Kthv. Sorry about the imby! Im on my mobile traveling. Thanks! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blinkers88 Posted December 22, 2012 Share Posted December 22, 2012 I'm only counting up frozen precip since who cares about rain, amirite? KPNE - 0.74" snow, 0.26" sleet KPHL - 0.55" snow, 0.47" sleet/rain mix KTTN - 0.91" snow, 0.26" sleet/snow KDYL - 1.11" all snow KABE - 1.06" all snow KRDG - 1.04" all snow KMPO - 0.79" all snow KMIV - 0.30" with melting Lock it up please Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scummyratguy Posted December 22, 2012 Share Posted December 22, 2012 thanks a ton for the link Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChescoWx Posted December 22, 2012 Share Posted December 22, 2012 Ralph - of course it is the 18z runs....we all know it will likely be flurries and drizzle come Christmas morning!! LOL Paul, have I ever told you how much I love wxsim? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jwilson Posted December 22, 2012 Share Posted December 22, 2012 Trying to remember the last time there were two significant snows 48 hours apart Thinking of February 2010, but not sure if that counts. Other than that, off the top of my head PDII (2003) comes to mind. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherQ Posted December 22, 2012 Share Posted December 22, 2012 No prob! 1.06", all snow Here's the link: http://wxweb.meteost...shtml?text=KLNS TR, could you include KILG. Thx! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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