Ralph Wiggum Posted December 19, 2012 Share Posted December 19, 2012 And we're off. Will start with the FIM: And the GFS is farther East from 0Z with a system emerging from the GOM: Will have to monitor how the Rex Block holds and pivots around then we can pinpoint exact track and redevelopment. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted December 19, 2012 Author Share Posted December 19, 2012 Euro op from 0Z was farther East than 12Z: Baby steps.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted December 19, 2012 Author Share Posted December 19, 2012 Sweet block showing up at hr 147 on the 12Z GFS: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted December 19, 2012 Author Share Posted December 19, 2012 ....and the GFS drives an SLP right into the Block. Meteorological impossibility this run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted December 19, 2012 Share Posted December 19, 2012 after trending eastward with the weak wave on christmas, the gfs turns into a trainwreck again day 7. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted December 19, 2012 Share Posted December 19, 2012 Ralph the pattern looks good, we actually have a pretty sweet block, HP sitting over lakes, but the shortwave takes so long it still heads towards Lakes lol....The X-mas wave is actually very important it lowers heights, but it just takes too long to get going... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted December 19, 2012 Share Posted December 19, 2012 While there is a block there is a lack of confluence as well, might be a reason for it still riding into the GL Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NaoPos Posted December 19, 2012 Share Posted December 19, 2012 and we get 5" of rain on this run... way to go WIGGUM! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted December 19, 2012 Share Posted December 19, 2012 Haven't seen the FIM model in over a year been wondering what happened to that. Wasn't it suppose to be the successor to the GFS? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted December 19, 2012 Author Share Posted December 19, 2012 and we get 5" of rain on this run... way to go WIGGUM! I highly doubt this plays out the way the 12Z GFS is depicting. The farthest West this should be in reality is an Apps runner with Miller B redevelopment, not a SLP driving into a Block near the midwest with no redevelopment (Miller B ) at all. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted December 19, 2012 Share Posted December 19, 2012 We got a shot at some snow, all be it very light but all you need is a coating on christmas eve/christmas morning. Only a slight shift south would do it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NaoPos Posted December 19, 2012 Share Posted December 19, 2012 I highly doubt this plays out the way the 12Z GFS is depicting. The farthest West this should be in reality is an Apps runner with Miller B redevelopment, not a SLP driving into a Block near the midwest with no redevelopment (Miller B ) at all. i was just bustin chops on the 5" rain thing bc you made the thread. lol. with how strong that vort is, you're gonna need a stronger block than whats progged @ h5 in canda, and you're gonna need a psuedo 50-50 low to flatten the heights along the east coast. the way the shortwave behaves, pumping up heights along the coast,(hour 180) they don't flatten till the canadian maritimes. Thats weaksauce if you want redevelopment. This is strictly verbatim on this run, but its whats been coming up on some of the op models. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted December 19, 2012 Share Posted December 19, 2012 GFS pushing weenies to the meteorological cliff depicting cutter after cutter post christmas. Quite the ugly run there need the euro run stat to try and flush this bad taste from my mouth Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quakertown needs snow Posted December 19, 2012 Share Posted December 19, 2012 These storm threads don't seem to deliver. We need to go back the way it was. Start OBS / Discussion / Photo / Weenie Maps threads the day before almost certain hit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thunder Road Posted December 19, 2012 Share Posted December 19, 2012 Ralph, could you at least give credit on that 1st image? And I would really cool it on the "meteorological impossibility" talk, you're starting to sound a lot like a certain somebody who often gets his ass handed to him. The GFS still breaks up the SLP when it runs in to the block, just not far south enough to be considered a true Miller B. Just because it doesn't drop snow in your backyard doesn't mean it's impossible. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted December 19, 2012 Share Posted December 19, 2012 fwiw, 12z euro has a period of lgt snow from m/d line north christmas morning Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Boch23 Posted December 19, 2012 Share Posted December 19, 2012 fwiw, 12z euro has a period of lgt snow from m/d line north christmas morning That would be cool. Also what is the FIM I've never heard of it lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted December 19, 2012 Author Share Posted December 19, 2012 Credit noted TR :-) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted December 19, 2012 Share Posted December 19, 2012 Euro better with light snow on christmas eve chance, i swear if that verified it would make up for the previous three weeks of spring Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RowanBrandon Posted December 19, 2012 Share Posted December 19, 2012 QPF total? .1? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted December 19, 2012 Share Posted December 19, 2012 @ the EC with its inch of snow here Christmas eve night. Well, now we can get let down again (for those of us who've already given up most hope for the post Christmas storm) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quakertown needs snow Posted December 19, 2012 Share Posted December 19, 2012 fwiw, 12z euro has a period of lgt snow from m/d line north christmas morning a coating would even rock. ho ho ho Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NaoPos Posted December 19, 2012 Share Posted December 19, 2012 and the low cuts up right through detroit.... on the 27th.. Dt block fail.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted December 19, 2012 Share Posted December 19, 2012 @ the EC with its inch of snow here Christmas eve night. Well, now we can get let down again (for those of us who've already given up most hope for the post Christmas storm) There is some anger showing up in the new england thread about our tiny white christmas chance in the mid atlantic tells ya how bad this start to winter has been Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FPizz Posted December 19, 2012 Share Posted December 19, 2012 and the low cuts up right through detroit.... on the 27th.. Dt block fail.... I know it didn't happen, but us he ever correct anymore? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NaoPos Posted December 19, 2012 Share Posted December 19, 2012 we should prob just make a severe weather thread for this.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted December 19, 2012 Share Posted December 19, 2012 Yea per euro its just cutter after cutter...till that -pna goes away snow shots are hurting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NaoPos Posted December 19, 2012 Share Posted December 19, 2012 Yea per euro its just cutter after cutter...till that -pna goes away rain shots are plentiful Fixed Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted December 19, 2012 Author Share Posted December 19, 2012 GEFS support the Miller B idea for the most part. Still rain mostly along I95 but good to see the cutter idea is not etched in stone. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted December 19, 2012 Author Share Posted December 19, 2012 fwiw, 12z euro has a period of lgt snow from m/d line north christmas morning BL temp issues? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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