tarheelwx Posted December 25, 2012 Share Posted December 25, 2012 To my untrained eye, it seems like the Euro and GFS are generally showing the same pieces on the table for Jan 2nd, however the Euro being a day slower with the ejection of southern stream energy results in a more inland track. Yes, but there appears to be considerable wedging east of the mountains. TW Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HKY_WX Posted December 25, 2012 Share Posted December 25, 2012 Euro is a great setup on the Jan storm, just has to work out the timing. I love seeing that huge 500mb low over Maine/NF. That should allow some CAD to show up on future runs if that stays there. The reason the storm tomorrow is not going to be ice is b/c the models were off on that feature w/ the current setup. Let's hope they don't blow it again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted December 25, 2012 Share Posted December 25, 2012 Folks, The 12Z Euro has no wintry precip. for N GA 1/1-2 ahead of that low because there's no cold air even close and the low's track is too far north anyway. Let's see if the backside does something as it appears there's some lingering upper upper level energy that will need to pass through well after the surface low. Nada. Nonmountainous N GA is pretty much shut out wintry precipwise from the post New Year's storm on the 12Z Euro. In comparison, the 12Z GFS has some backside snow there on the night of 1/2-3. Overall, I don't see a lot about which to get excited in the ATL-AHN area as of now regarding wintry precip. prospects through ~1/4 as some backside snow on one GFS run won't do that to me based on my experience/climo. Edit: the really cold air keeps disappearing as we get closer (worse on the GFS but also on the Euro)...remember those recent Euro runs showing a beautiful very tall W N American ridge and very deep trough plunging deep down into the SE US? However, that was when the Euro was not ejecting the storm from the SW US...it was getting stuck. Now that it is ejecting, the SE is way warmer. The same pattern of what looks like promising cold that never gets to the SE continues over and over. It is like a neverending mirage. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HKY_WX Posted December 25, 2012 Share Posted December 25, 2012 It's interesting how much overrunning is ahead of this vort. It is already rain/snow-ing in NC by day 7. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DCMetroWinston Posted December 25, 2012 Share Posted December 25, 2012 keep on talking, Hky Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HKY_WX Posted December 25, 2012 Share Posted December 25, 2012 Notice how huge the precip field is. Most of that is QPF per the sfc maps. Probably a hint the euro is shearing this out too much instead of just ejecting it in one piece. Will fascinating to watch this one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wow Posted December 25, 2012 Share Posted December 25, 2012 Nada. Nonmountainous N GA is pretty much shut out wintry precipwise from the post New Year's storm on the 12Z Euro. In comparison, the 12Z GFS has some backside snow there on the night of 1/2-3. Overall, I don't see a lot about which to get excited in the ATL-AHN area as of now regarding wintry precip. prospects through ~1/4 as some backside snow on one GFS run won't do that to me based on my experience/climo. Edit: the really cold air keeps disappearing as we get closer (worse on the GFS but also on the Euro)...remember those recent Euro runs showing a beautiful very tall W N American ridge and very deep trough plunging deep down into the SE US? However, that was when the Euro was not ejecting the storm from the SW US...it was getting stuck. Now that it is ejecting, the SE is way warmer. The same pattern of what looks like promising cold that never gets to the SE continues over and over. It is like a neverending mirage. You'll be disappointed if you were looking for a cold/dry pattern. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted December 25, 2012 Share Posted December 25, 2012 You'll be disappointed if you were looking for a cold/dry pattern. Who said I was looking for a cold, dry pattern? My point is that the model consensus has been horrible in that it has been too cold over and over again (at least going back to your pre-Thanksgiving, cold is coming thread). We STILL have not gotten to a period (I don't mean just 2-3 days in a row) dominated by below normal temp.'s in the SE US despite being teased with such by the GFS and Euro on many occasions in their day 6+ outlooks. KATL is still struggling just to get down to a near normal average over a multiple day period. KATL's coldest so far this season is only down to 30. To be that warm for the coldest to date as of 12/25 is quite unusual and is in line with the warmest Dec.'s. Now, the day 6+ outlooks don't even look cold dominated! As Clara Peller (and, later, Walter Mondale) asked, "Where's the beef?" in regard to the cold? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowless in Carrollton Posted December 25, 2012 Share Posted December 25, 2012 Who said I was looking for a cold, dry pattern? My point is that the model consensus has been horrible in that it has been too cold over and over again (at least going back to your pre-Thanksgiving, cold is coming thread). We STILL have not gotten to a period (I don't mean just 2-3 days in a row) dominated by below normal temp.'s in the SE US despite being teased with such by the GFS and Euro on many occasions in their day 6+ outlooks. KATL is still struggling just to get down to a near normal average over a multiple day period. KATL's coldest so far this season is only down to 30. To be that warm for the coldest to date as of 12/25 is quite unusual and is in line with the warmest Dec.'s. Now, the day 6+ outlooks don't even look cold dominated! As Clara Peller (and, later, Walter Mondale) asked, "Where's the beef?" in regard to the cold? Any chance Atlanta goes an entire winter without getting below 30? Has that ever happened ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DCMetroWinston Posted December 25, 2012 Share Posted December 25, 2012 To my knowledge, the big three NC airports, RIC, and DCA have not gotten below yet. I think IAD may have. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
avianman Posted December 25, 2012 Share Posted December 25, 2012 Clt airport got in the 20's last week. To my knowledge, the big three NC airports, RIC, and DCA have not gotten below yet. I think IAD may have. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tarheelwx Posted December 25, 2012 Share Posted December 25, 2012 Clt airport got in the 20's last week. As did GSO. TW Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DCMetroWinston Posted December 25, 2012 Share Posted December 25, 2012 CLT got down to 21 the morning of December 23, and got down to 21 in November also. GSO has had at least a 21 degree Low this month and went down to 22 in November. INT went down to 21 in November, but has only gotten down to 24 in December thus far. AVL got down to 21 in November, but only has managed to get down to 23 in December. RDU got down to 23 in November, but only has managed to get down to 25 in December. ROA has gotten down to 23 in December, 25 in November. Danville got down to 18 in November, only been down to 21 in December. RIC went down to 25 in November, 23 in December. ORF got down to 28 in November, 29 in December. DCA got down to 31 in November, 29 in December. IAD got down to 23 in November, 21 in December. The cold of November and warmth of November are underscored by the fact that December has not been able to deliver more robust cold than November delivered in NC and VA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowless in Carrollton Posted December 25, 2012 Share Posted December 25, 2012 CLT got down to 21 the morning of December 23, and got down to about that in November also. GSO has had at least a 21 degree Low this month and went form to 22 in November. Strange that CLT got so much colder than Atlanta considering both cities have similar climates in the winter from an average temp perspective. I guess the heat island isn't a big issue in CLT. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherfide Posted December 25, 2012 Share Posted December 25, 2012 Strange that CLT got so much colder than Atlanta considering both cities have similar climates in the winter from an average temp perspective. I guess the heat island isn't a big issue in CLT. Charlotte is considerably further north than Atlanta. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted December 25, 2012 Share Posted December 25, 2012 We don't need a whole week in the deep freezer to get snow. Just need it cold enough at the right time when one of the systems comes through. I'd rather it be warm when it is dry and not waste the cold air. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted December 25, 2012 Share Posted December 25, 2012 Who said I was looking for a cold, dry pattern? My point is that the model consensus has been horrible in that it has been too cold over and over again (at least going back to your pre-Thanksgiving, cold is coming thread). We STILL have not gotten to a period (I don't mean just 2-3 days in a row) dominated by below normal temp.'s in the SE US despite being teased with such by the GFS and Euro on many occasions in their day 6+ outlooks. KATL is still struggling just to get down to a near normal average over a multiple day period. KATL's coldest so far this season is only down to 30. To be that warm for the coldest to date as of 12/25 is quite unusual and is in line with the warmest Dec.'s. Now, the day 6+ outlooks don't even look cold dominated! As Clara Peller (and, later, Walter Mondale) asked, "Where's the beef?" in regard to the cold? Very true about models portraying cold air and it not verifying. Foothills, on FB, seemed to think Sat system is too warm for snow south of I40...no cold high to work with. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DixieBlizzard Posted December 25, 2012 Share Posted December 25, 2012 Charlotte is considerably further north than Atlanta. He has good intentions but always struggles with Geography. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DCMetroWinston Posted December 25, 2012 Share Posted December 25, 2012 Did you know that the average low in November was 34.3 (average high was 61.7)? Thus far, the average CLT December low has been 41.2 (average high has been 60.3). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted December 25, 2012 Share Posted December 25, 2012 Euro ENS looks good. Nice hit with the storm over the weekend and even a nice GA snow in the LR for Larry. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bevo Posted December 25, 2012 Share Posted December 25, 2012 Who said I was looking for a cold, dry pattern? My point is that the model consensus has been horrible in that it has been too cold over and over again (at least going back to your pre-Thanksgiving, cold is coming thread). We STILL have not gotten to a period (I don't mean just 2-3 days in a row) dominated by below normal temp.'s in the SE US despite being teased with such by the GFS and Euro on many occasions in their day 6+ outlooks. KATL is still struggling just to get down to a near normal average over a multiple day period. KATL's coldest so far this season is only down to 30. To be that warm for the coldest to date as of 12/25 is quite unusual and is in line with the warmest Dec.'s. Now, the day 6+ outlooks don't even look cold dominated! As Clara Peller (and, later, Walter Mondale) asked, "Where's the beef?" in regard to the cold? Of course you are speaking primarily for yourself and possibly NoGa, right? I've had several nights in the 20's, which is not that common for December in my area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bevo Posted December 25, 2012 Share Posted December 25, 2012 We don't need a whole week in the deep freezer to get snow. Just need it cold enough at the right time when one of the systems comes through. I'd rather it be warm when it is dry and not waste the cold air. Of course you would. There is no such thing as wasted cold air. It is a myth. Like the mafia. And unicorns. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted December 25, 2012 Share Posted December 25, 2012 Euro ENS looks good. Nice hit with the storm over the weekend and even a nice GA snow in the LR for Larry. What areas does it show Burger? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted December 25, 2012 Share Posted December 25, 2012 What areas does it show Burger? @144 for TN it shows roughly half of TN with now...southern half misses out with the eastern side on the mountains with snow. NC is roughly WNC and GSO to around RDU. @246 interestingly enough the FL panhandle has snow then @276 there is snow from ATL to roughly CAE but nothing in NC or TN to speak outside of the usual spots. The fact it's showing snow so far south is a good sign to me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted December 25, 2012 Share Posted December 25, 2012 18z GFS probably going to be a major day 8-9 weenie run. It's not cutting off the low in CA anymore and is just ejecting, nice trend today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted December 25, 2012 Share Posted December 25, 2012 18z GFS probably going to be a major day 8-9 weenie run. It's not cutting off the low in CA anymore and is just ejecting, nice trend today. It certainly was a weenie run for NC...still don't know if I buy that low just spinning for days in the GOM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCSNOW Posted December 25, 2012 Share Posted December 25, 2012 If you like cold and winter weather threats then the 18z gfs is for you. I quit looking at hour 288 but in NC the 850's never get above freezing from new years day on. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted December 25, 2012 Share Posted December 25, 2012 Robert not to hip on snow in NC the weekend! Really? Even for the foothills and points west? I think it's a very small chance central NC sees a flake but it looks reasonable for the western part of the state, per the Euro. The GFS is insistent on this taking a more NW run, maybe that's why. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted December 25, 2012 Share Posted December 25, 2012 Really? Even for the foothills and points west? I think it's a very small chance central NC sees a flake but it looks reasonable for the western part of the state, per the Euro. The GFS is insistent on this taking a more NW run, maybe that's why. Well in his favor there really isn't much cold air to work with. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pcbjr Posted December 25, 2012 Share Posted December 25, 2012 From the far southern flank of the Southeast Membership, since 11/15 I've had three freezes, several nights right at 33º - 35º, and 6 days that topped at or below 60º. Models notwithstanding. However, that is several freezes below my normal for this point, and many too warm days. Anyone see any good mojo for a bit of sustained cool? I'm not but am praying that I'm missing something. Regardless of temps or progs - Merry Christmas! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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