January Pattern and Storm Discussion

[burgertime]

I thought Euro was a great step in the right direction for the 240 range. Much will change but it has the basics there. While not cold enough for Georgia points north are in a better position.

[Wow]

12Z Euro now has precip. for 1/1-2 but is almost all rain since it is too warm. So, despite the intro of precip. vs. the 0Z Euro, it still isn't modeled as a winter storm. So, I'll stick with a 5% chance for 1/1-2 for N GA.

There no longer is that very tall western N America ridge/very deep US trough dipping deep into the SE. So, not nearly as cold, but some rain instead.

Because it held the ULL over the western us, which blunts any attempt of the polar/artic jet to move any further south. Prev run it pushed it back into the Pacific to fully teleconnect to a western ridge/eastern trough wave pattern. With a fired-up STJ, by 204 hrs that low will be in TX rather than hanging out over CA for a few days until it is sheared away by the polar/arctic jet.

[Wow]

Here's a sketch to show my argument...

This is the 192 hr 12z Euro map

The GFS does show this feature park over the west a big as well but does move it east past 240 but doesn't quite model the trough and incoming phasing correctly.

[Carvers Gap]

Euro and 12z GFS seem to be light years apart in the mid to long range. I agree, the Euro doesn't look bad at all. Again, hope the GFS doesn't verify. I think we have a window open for 2-3 weeks with marginal to reasonable chances. Then, I think it warms again to above normal. Going to be above normal this winter, but it can snow in a warm pattern.

[MichaelJ]

To amplify further on my top analog year on how this year looks ( 93-94), KGSO had the coldest January from 1989 to present in 1994 and we got a paltry 3 inches of snow for the entire winter and only an inch in January when it was so cold. Sad to say this looks like a near repeat of that winter for the SE. I would look for some ice events as we go into January (especially in the favored CAD areas) but think we will warm up very rapidly once late Jan/early Febuary comes along. The cold will be serious cold/dry but will be very short lived and followed by warm rain (Brick's favorite forecasts) for most of January.

[jaxjagman]

I'm more impressed what the E/ens shows in the long range.Jan 4 it has a 46H in Kansas and is and bringing down -20 through Tn AND -30 in Ky,this spreads to NC the 5th

[GaWx]

1) 18Z Goofy says no Miller A for you 1/1-2. Instead, it has flurries as a quick shot of Arctic air visits fwiw. I'm sticking with 5% chance of sig. wintry precip. 1/1-2 for N GA for now.

2) FWIW: After a cold week #2, the new Euro weeklies are warm weeks 3 and 4. Also, weeks 2-4 now have a +NAO for weeks 2-4 and +AO for weeks 3-4. Not a good run to say the least as opposed to last week's two excellent runs.

[bhamwx205]

The weeklies have flipped just as much as op runs

[burgertime]

The weeklies have flipped just as much as op runs

Where'd you get your weeklies at? They usually don't come out until tomorrow afternoon.

[bhamwx205]

I dont have them I was responding to gawx above post saying " the new weeklies"

[GaWx]

Where'd you get your weeklies at? They usually don't come out until tomorrow afternoon.

They're issued on Mon and Thu late afternoon. I pay for them.

[pcbjr]

The weeklies have flipped just as much as op runs

Trying to do Christmas Eve and still peak; how have they flipped? Warm?

Thanks!

[bhamwx205]

Trying to do Christmas Eve and still peak; how have they flipped? Warm?

Thanks!

I was saying they flip just as much as model runs. the last three weeks they have changed almost everytime they come out

[packbacker]

1) 18Z Goofy says no Miller A for you 1/1-2. Instead, it has flurries as a quick shot of Arctic air visits fwiw. I'm sticking with 5% chance of sig. wintry precip. 1/1-2 for N GA for now.

2) FWIW: After a cold week #2, the new Euro weeklies are warm weeks 3 and 4. Also, weeks 2-4 now have a +NAO for weeks 2-4 and +AO for weeks 3-4. Not a good run to say the least as opposed to last week's two excellent runs.

Not to surprising, we knew this upcoming cold pattern wasn't going to last to long which is all the more important we cash in the first 10 days of Jan as it will be Feb before we get another chance.

[Wow]

0z GFS has a nice setup for the early Jan storm with a solid 50/50 low in place and an energized ULL trekking eastward along the southern tier. It shouldn't be cutting out for the Pacific.

[wncsnow]

If only this glob in Texas can ever eject towards us, we will finally have the cold air to go with the moisture...

[packbacker]

0z GFS has a nice setup for the early Jan storm with a solid 50/50 low in place and an energized ULL trekking eastward along the southern tier. It's not cutting out for the Pacific this time.

The cutoff low in the west finally ejects day 10-11 and than dampens out. This cut off doesn't even develop for another 5 days. This is our best chance, assuming the pattern falls apart by Jan 10th.

[DopplerWx]

i see our 1/03 low out near the pacific at 144, lets see if the euro ejects it

[burgertime]

They're issued on Mon and Thu late afternoon. I pay for them.

Somehow I missed your post. I had checked AccuPro and they weren't up yet but mine always seems to be sort of late...for some reason I thought they came out on Tues. not sure why.

[HKY_WX]

Day 7-10 system definitely has potential to be a major event. Reminds me a lot of the December 2002 setup w/ the +PNA pattern and undercutting vortex. The main question will be how strong is the troughing be over the eastern US and will there be a 50/50 low. Those questions will help determine whether it's squashed into nothing, a significant snow event or possible an ice event. All three are possibilities.

[GaWx]

The Euro and GFS operational runs from the last few days have shown no winter storms (excluding flurries on one or two runs) and no very close calls for the bulk of north GA. Also, they have largely let up on the very cold scenarios. That's not to say there's no potential in this overall pattern since there is good moisture as well as cold not too far north. However, for a place like north GA (this is not NC), things need to come together just right for significant wintry precip. (1"+ of S/IP and/or 0.25" ZR) as evidenced by their infrequency of usually no more than one or two (and sometimes zero) per winter. So, until the operational GFS and/or Euro again start showing an ACTUAL threat, I'm going with a 95% chance of no significant wintry event for the bulk of north GA (i. e., not just a minor thing like flurries and not just mountains) for the next week or so (including around New Year's).

[MillerA]

Second part of Allan's update:

January 1st-4th Potential

We continue to see significant oscillations in the models with this potential storm. The main reason is that the models are dependent on what happens with the upper low progged to cut off over the Southwest. The latest 6z GFS progresses this upper system out, or at least some of the energy, and we see the potential for a winter storm for TN/northern NC into the mid-Atlantic around 1/1 to 1/2. The latest ECMWF keeps the system pretty suppressed and has some light precipitation across the Southeast in this time frame. The ECMWF Ensemble mean is a bit wetter than the operational meaning at least some of the members are likely showing a winter storm. The Canadian looks to bring the system out later, but by then it would likely be a warmer event.

So the moral is that the potential still exists for a winter storm around this time frame. So stay tuned

Follow me on twitter at @RaleighWx. I will probably do some model play by play over the next few days as time permits.

Beyond this period, the ensembles/weeklies have been turning warmer and we may see a warmer pattern return by the 2nd week of January.

Merry Christmas!

[SN_Lover]

I feel better about this storm. at least the EURO and GFS are on board for something to happen. it looks like a warm nose will pass though the charlotte region hopefully the low will trend southeast....wait where have we heard that before

[GaWx]

The Euro and GFS operational runs from the last few days have shown no winter storms (excluding flurries on one or two runs) and no very close calls for the bulk of north GA. Also, they have largely let up on the very cold scenarios. That's not to say there's no potential in this overall pattern since there is good moisture as well as cold not too far north. However, for a place like north GA (this is not NC), things need to come together just right for significant wintry precip. (1"+ of S/IP and/or 0.25" ZR) as evidenced by their infrequency of usually no more than one or two (and sometimes zero) per winter. So, until the operational GFS and/or Euro again start showing an ACTUAL threat, I'm going with a 95% chance of no significant wintry event for the bulk of north GA (i. e., not just a minor thing like flurries and not just mountains) for the next week or so (including around New Year's).

The 12Z Tue GFS has for the night of 1/2-3 a little bit of backside snow for much of N GA (though more than a little near Chattanooga) due to lingering upper level instability/moisture after the surface low passes. However, there is none on the prime frontside as the track is about 300 miles north of the best track scenario to get major snow in this area. Temp.'s would get to near 50+ ahead of it/as it passes due to limited CAD here.Typically, backside snow (rain changing to snow) is light and I wouldn't anticipate anything sig. (say 1"+) from this track for the bulk of N GA including ATL and AHN. Nevertheless, I'm raising the chance for sig. wintry precip. covering most of the area ATL-AHN northward in N GA from 5% back up to 10% through 1/3 in deference to this slightly more interesting run, the idea that this storm could very well be quite energetic, and considering this is still 8.5 days away.

Reminder: many posters are in NC and are naturally posting from their location's perspective. However, they're not always stating that they're talking mainly about NC, which may be confusing to those outside of there. I'm strictly talking N GA (ATL-AHN areas and north excluding the mountains), which isn't in as favorable a position in many cases including this one.

[BullCityWx]

Looks like a snow to rain scenario on the 12z

[bhamwx205]

Looks like a snow to rain scenario on the 12z

Is this the weekend or next week

[DCMetroWinston]

You know a lot is going on when people are talking about three different potential events in the same thread and people are getting confused about which days we are talking about.

[GaWx]

Is this the weekend or next week

bham,

It appears he's talking about portions of NC for 12/28-9 per the other thread.

Folks,

The 12Z Euro has no wintry precip. for N GA 1/1-2 ahead of that low because there's no cold air even close and the low's track is too far north anyway.

Let's see if the backside does something as it appears there's some lingering upper upper level energy that will need to pass through well after the surface low.

[Marion_NC_WX]

To my untrained eye, it seems like the Euro and GFS are generally showing the same pieces on the table for Jan 2nd, however the Euro being a day slower with the ejection of southern stream energy results in a more inland track.

[griteater]

Folks,

The 12Z Euro has no wintry precip. for N GA 1/1-2 ahead of that low because there's no cold air even close and the low's track is too far north anyway.

Nice to see the models trending toward bringing the energy out of the southwest as WOW called for...and we have the nice 50/50 vortex, but the trend is for the +PNA to be a bit muted way up through western Canada, and we're not seeing that surge of cold air to the south like the models were showing some days ago. It looks like the fast Pacific flow continues to win that battle (on the whole). I'd like to see the energy come out of the southwest a bit weaker (maybe in a couple of pieces / not so amplified) in order to keep the warm air advection in check.