January Pattern and Storm Discussion

[dsaur]

But is it colder before years end? Will it drop our average? T

[GaWx]

But is it colder before years end? Will it drop our average? T

If it verifies as cold as the 0Z Doc, it might be just cold enough to get KATL just below 50 F. That seems to be a key point as regards Jan. prospects in ATL.

[MichaelJ]

Only problem is what cold shows up seems to be between rain storms!

This is what I have thought was our scenario all along. Largely some very brief periods of cold preceded and followed by cool to mild and several big rain storms. When the El Nino faded to La Nada and with the SE ridge stubbornly hanging off and on in the SE, I thought it will take a very lucky set of circumstances for the extreme northern parts of our area to see some snow and the folks SC south would get nothing but rain. If you will notice, we get our best snows when lows come up from the gulf OR when they come up from the SW and a transference of energy to the SC/ NC coast and travels north giving us a chance for some winter weather(assuming enough fresh cold air around) and the NE/MA big snows. This year any transference so far is taking place further North in the Virginia capes or even Delmarva Penisula largely due to the strength of the ridge IMO and this will not be a good scenario for us in the SE unless something changes in January. The one hope we have is that the ridge stays weak enough to allow the cold to filter down here and storms to set up and run along the boundary layers between the arctic air and warmer air to our south, giving us our snow. Too early to throw in the towel until we see what Jan. brings but I think this could be a lot like the winter of 93-94 where we had a period of very cold weather but the timing and tracks benefited those well north oif us but left us with cold rain or some ice.

[burgertime]

Not a surprise, but this was in the latest Extended Forecast Discussion from HPC: "THE ECENS MEAN (Euro Ensemble) HAS BEEN VERIFYING BETTER AS A WHOLE THAN THE GEFS MEAN (GFS Ensemble), SO CHOSE TO RELY ON IT AS A TEMPLATE FOR THE CURRENT MEDIUM RANGE FORECAST."

The Euro ENS wasn't too bad last night temp wise...the problem is it's so dry on it. Either way I'll take my chances if we can get colder air in here. It's not like the Euro is showing major artic cold for the SE.

[NCSNOW]

The Euro ENS wasn't too bad last night temp wise...the problem is it's so dry on it. Either way I'll take my chances if we can get colder air in here. It's not like the Euro is showing major artic cold for the SE.

Keeps our 850's below freezing from 140ish all the way out. Looking at 6z gfs and euro as well the 12/30 storm isn't to far away from helping some people out. The track is perfect. What we need to happen is for it not to stay strung out and get stronger (phased) making it's own cold air.

[franklin NCwx]

Keeps our 850's below freezing from 140ish all the way out. Looking at 6z gfs and euro as well the 12/30 storm isn't to far away from helping some people out. The track is perfect. What we need to happen is for it not to stay strung out and get stronger (phased) making it's own cold air.

I agree, If it can deepen quicker then maybe we can squeeze out an advisory event for western NC.

[Carvers Gap]

CPC ensemble teleconnectors show a +NAO and + AO to begin Jan. The PNA will go briefly + and then drop it appears. They don't look as bad as last year, but a close second. Let's hope they don't verify or that you like golf.

Edit: Guess for January at KTRI +2.5.

[Carvers Gap]

HPC not impressed with GFS in their extended forecast. They are going to hug the Euro...which is colder.

[Bevo]

No way I buy the + AO/NAO for any extended amount of time.

[GaWx]

Folks,

Due to the lack of modeled threats on a number of runs in a row, I'm reducing the chance of a 1"+ S/IP and/or 0.25" ZR for the bulk of N GA ~1/1-2 from 25% to 10%. I'm still leaving it at 10% just in case it suddenly reappears. After all, that is still 8-9 days out. Regardless, the trends are obviously not good.

[Tacoma]

yea these storms always seem to come north as they come closer, good to see the cold showing up though.

this is a good sign, storms always come north as time gets closer. HOPEFULLY.

[burgertime]

12z looks good but doesn't bring a storm in until hour 300 or so...still good that something is showing up but after that it looks like a mess.

[GaWx]

12Z Goofy a bad run:

1) No storm of any kind ~1/1-2. I'm now reducing the chance for N GA for sig. wintry precip. from 10% to only 5% around 1/1-2. This one is just about history.

2) The run lacks any very cold air. Charlie Brown taking over again. The mirages are running rampant again.

[burgertime]

12Z Goofy a bad run:

1) No storm of any kind ~1/1-2. I'm now reducing the chance for N GA for sig. wintry precip. from 10% to only 5% around 1/1-2. This one is just about history.

2) The run lacks any very cold air. Charlie Brown taking over again. The mirages are running rampant again.

After that big storm rolled through it's a disaster. The good thing is Euro ENS keeps it cold and has been for the last few runs. Maybe the GFS is flipping and will keep showing a warm up that takes forever to get here.

[bhamwx205]

The op runs over the last few days have had very little support from the ensembles....

[GaWx]

Lol you base your percentages off the op? Might want to look at the ensembles and mean which dont really give the op much credit

I'm looking at overall model consensus trends, which includes many GFS/Euro operational model runs. It is clear that they are saying it is almost definitely not going to happen.

[burrel2]

I thought the 12z GFS looked rather good for snow prospects. Around the 8/9 day timeframe you have a building ridge out west, a closed off baja low that’s starting to open up and eject east, and and huge 50/50 low cranking the cold air down from canada.

[GaWx]

I thought the 12z GFS looked rather good for snow prospects. Around the 8/9 day timeframe you have a building ridge out west, a closed off baja low that’s starting to open up and eject east, and and huge 50/50 low cranking the cold air down from canada.

Regardless, the actual storm on 1/1-2 has not even been modeled for at least four GFS runs in a rows. The Euro ops never had it. Now it is almost as if it never existed. Dandy Don getting ready to step up to the mic. Remember, I'm merely a messenger.

[GaWx]

First off trying to get a "trend " from any model ten days out is crazy. All models have had a hard time this year with five days out much less ten. Secondly if you look at the ensembles they dont give much support to the op runs. You say " many runs" well it cant be that many cause we had a huge storm showing up what two days ago. So your comments are based on what 8 runs of the op?

Bottom line: there's no reason to watch for a potential winter storm threat specifically on 1/1-2 any more. It may happen to reappear for around then, but until it does, there's nothing to follow. I'll keep a 5% chance in there for now just in case.

[Carvers Gap]

12z GFS showed some signs of a winter-like pattern. However, the lack of cold air(though not completely absent) is going to make it highly difficult to get any snow outside of the mountains antyime soon. At this point, if something doesn't change soon, we will be at the halfway point of winter with very little in the way of snow to show for it. As for KTRI, the winter almost definitely will be above normal thanks to an abnormally warm December. I am guessing this won't be the last winter month with above normal temps. When it is all said and done, I believe all three months will be above normal due to lack of a Nino pattern. It would appear that the pattern for winter is this...Big storm followed by 2-3 weeks of cold followed by extreme warmth. Happened in late October and is getting ready to happen again. Thus, to me it would appear that we might have one more "opportunity" in late January or early February before Spring arrives. FWIW, my grass is already turning green. Let's hope the Euro holds serve on the cold as the HPC is betting. If it doesn't, early January is toast.

[Cold Rain]

What are you guys looking at? There are a couple close calls between now and 300 hrs and then it looks fairly seasonable, not that any of this is at all representative of how it'll really turn out. I'd feel better, of course, if there was bitterly cold air across the northern tier. But the system that looks to move through around the end of the month (which I guess I could put in the other thread) is a very close call. Won't take much to make this work out. It's not a perfect setup, but it's definitely servicable. The one at 288 or so looks good too, just going by the model output verbatim. Will it pan out? I have no idea. I'll have to look to Larry for specific percentages. But there is definitely potential in this pattern up until about 300 hrs, then the model turns zonal.

So after the Christmas storm, we have 2 threats to follow (in just one model run) which is way more than the zero that we had last year in all the model runs all winter. So what's the problem? Merry Christmas.

[dsaur]

This is what I have thought was our scenario all along. Largely some very brief periods of cold preceded and followed by cool to mild and several big rain storms. When the El Nino faded to La Nada and with the SE ridge stubbornly hanging off and on in the SE, I thought it will take a very lucky set of circumstances for the extreme northern parts of our area to see some snow and the folks SC south would get nothing but rain. If you will notice, we get our best snows when lows come up from the gulf OR when they come up from the SW and a transference of energy to the SC/ NC coast and travels north giving us a chance for some winter weather(assuming enough fresh cold air around) and the NE/MA big snows. This year any transference so far is taking place further North in the Virginia capes or even Delmarva Penisula largely due to the strength of the ridge IMO and this will not be a good scenario for us in the SE unless something changes in January. The one hope we have is that the ridge stays weak enough to allow the cold to filter down here and storms to set up and run along the boundary layers between the arctic air and warmer air to our south, giving us our snow. Too early to throw in the towel until we see what Jan. brings but I think this could be a lot like the winter of 93-94 where we had a period of very cold weather but the timing and tracks benefited those well north oif us but left us with cold rain or some ice.

What you describe is a pretty typical Ga winter, lol. A roller coaster with one or two chance for something frozen. Usually cold chasing rain. After last year I'd take a normal winter in a heartbeat. Get my one or two chances and be happy with some periods of intense cold. But we've been in a drought, so I'm particularly interested it what lows can develop, and where. I love cold, and a dry cold is fine, in a pinch, but if the rains dry up, then like Larry is saying, the chance % goes way, way down. Get the rain change first, then worry about the cold. Elsewise, we get, like you're saying, 2 weeks in Feb of record cold daily highs in some nice beaming sun In a drought I'd prefer rain over cold, if I had to make a choice. T

[burgertime]

What are you guys looking at? There are a couple close calls between now and 300 hrs and then it looks fairly seasonable, not that any of this is at all representative of how it'll really turn out. I'd feel better, of course, if there was bitterly cold air across the northern tier. But the system that looks to move through around the end of the month (which I guess I could put in the other thread) is a very close call. Won't take much to make this work out. It's not a perfect setup, but it's definitely servicable. The one at 288 or so looks good too, just going by the model output verbatim. Will it pan out? I have no idea. I'll have to look to Larry for specific percentages. But there is definitely potential in this pattern up until about 300 hrs, then the model turns zonal.

So after the Christmas storm, we have 2 threats to follow (in just one model run) which is way more than the zero that we had last year in all the model runs all winter. So what's the problem? Merry Christmas.

GFS also always does it's thing where it holds energy in Texas for four days and then ejects it into a storm only Noah would be prepared for. Realistically the storm would probably be more around hours 250 or so. As is usually said we shall see. The GFS ENS mean still looks good so far and it's out to 264.... it's actually a close call with that storm this weekend.

[Marion_NC_WX]

Bottom line: there's no reason to watch for a potential winter storm threat specifically on 1/1-2 any more. It may happen to reappear for around then, but until it does, there's nothing to follow. I'll keep a 5% chance in there for now just in case.

I do agree with you that the Jan 1-2 threat is small to none but that may be due to the fact that the GFS still is persistant on the threat of a Gulf Low late this weekend (12/30).

I've always had the theory that you need at least 4 days between storms in order to pop something of significance. The 12/30 system would fit in line with the current storm and the Jan 1-2 storm would be coming in too fast.

So in other words, its almost like the two different scenarios are fighting each other, one of them will win over the other.

[Cold Rain]

GFS also always does it's thing where it holds energy in Texas for four days and then ejects it into a storm only Noah would be prepared for. Realistically the storm would probably be more around hours 250 or so. As is usually said we shall see. The GFS ENS mean still looks good so far and it's out to 264.... it's actually a close call with that storm this weekend.

See? Exactly. I'm not sure why there seems to be an expectation of bitter cold, a perfect, locked-in pattern, and snowstorms every couple of days. Most of our events are conjured from less than ideal conditions modeled 10 days out. I really believe that we'll have all gotten in on the action by the time January is over. To abort that prospect on a 10+ day GFS prog is not the best course, if you ask me. But it is frustrating. So, in that sense, I understand where folks are coming from. It's hard to wait. But in any event, it's likely to be a variable winter. That should be the expectation.

[dsaur]

See? Exactly. I'm not sure why there seems to be an expectation of bitter cold, a perfect, locked-in pattern, and snowstorms every couple of days. Most of our events are conjured from less than ideal conditions modeled 10 days out. I really believe that we'll have all gotten in on the action by the time January is over. To abort that prospect on a 10+ day GFS prog is not the best course, if you ask me. But it is frustrating. So, in that sense, I understand where folks are coming from. It's hard to wait. But in any event, it's likely to be a variable winter. That should be the expectation.

I like whatever model is showing the rains, lol. I love Goofy right now. The GFS wants to wrap in some flurries at the end of the next few storms depicted. Yea, GFS!! And goofy has a nice low coming up under some marginal cold around the 4th, so there's something to look at and the time for frozen is only just getting started. I say lets hook up the Doc. and the GFS for some weather model dating fun, otherwise it's more of this, and less of that, and not near as much fun, lol. Meanwhile, we're under two days out from some maybe flurries for Rosie and Dawson, and I've already seen some sleet and snow down here, so this year beats the heck out of last year, even if it's over Jan 1, lol. T

[NCSNOW]

Looks like 12z Euro wants to shove the 12/30 threat down the same train track as Wednesday event. Good 500 mile difference from gfs. Go figure, (wash,rinse,repeat)

[Wow]

12z Euro isn't pushing the new year storm off into the pacific this time, at least not as quickly or severely.. Nice big newfoundland low by 174 hrs with split flow over the west.

[Wow]

Still hang it back over the west but with another deep trough on its heels there's no way it's going to stay there.. probably be nearer to TX by 198 hrs rather than CA.

[GaWx]

12z Euro isn't pushing the new year storm off into the pacific this time, at least not as quickly or severely.. Nice big newfoundland low by 174 hrs with split flow over the west.

12Z Euro now has precip. for 1/1-2 but is almost all rain for the SE US since it is too warm. So, despite the intro of precip. vs. the 0Z Euro, it still isn't modeled as a winter storm. So, I'll stick with a 5% chance for 1/1-2 for N GA.

There no longer is that very tall western N America ridge/very deep US trough dipping deep into the SE. So, not nearly as cold, but some rain instead.