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January Pattern and Storm Discussion


Cold Rain

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Also the EPS control run looked great for a southern snow storm from 200 - 240. Euro says yes, 6z is close now to. I think it's time to start getting a little excited folks. Also great discussion by all the mets. Gotta give props to Andy and everyone else. By the way Euro snowfall map has light snow (around an inch) from eastern MS through half of Alabama (northern half) through a good chunk of northern GA including ATL and into SW NC. Plenty of time for this one to trend better (for many of the posters on here anyways) or just go *POOF*. Either way I'm excited.

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 For the first time this entire season, I can now say with confidence that I think very cold air is going to be coming into the northern U.S. at least down as far as the upper Midwest eastward into the NE in the 6-10 day period (maybe even below Chicago to NYC as it has been trending southward). The modeling (GFS and Euro including ensembles) has become very consistent in bringing the polar vortex well down into Hudson's Bay late next week as it has been progressing forward and maybe even has sped up the timing. For the SE, the question is how much of the bottom of that low level Arctic air wil make it down. If the timing is just right it could mix with moisture and produce some wintry precip. as per the 0Z Euro and 0Z CMC.

 

 There are also increasing indications that a second Arctic airmass will follow pretty closely on its heels. We'll see.

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Also the EPS control run looked great for a southern snow storm from 200 - 240. Euro says yes, 6z is close now to. I think it's time to start getting a little excited folks. Also great discussion by all the mets. Gotta give props to Andy and everyone else. By the way Euro snowfall map has light snow (around an inch) from eastern MS through half of Alabama (northern half) through a good chunk of northern GA including ATL and into SW NC. Plenty of time for this one to trend better (for many of the posters on here anyways) or just go *POOF*. Either way I'm excited.

 

thanks for the info your provided on the EPS... I had not heard of that either

 

one thing to remember about the ridiculous -30 to -35C airmass headed into southern and southeastern Canada next week is: since we are on the southern periphery, forecast models will have a tough time recognizing the density and weight of how damn cold that iarmass is and will be

 

so, the arctic air will inevitably sprawl out and press south (likely more than current forecast models show) due to the weight and density of it

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thanks for the info your provided on the EPS... I had not heard of that either

 

one thing to remember about the ridiculous -30 to -35C airmass headed into southern and southeastern Canada next week is: since we are on the southern periphery, forecast models will have a tough time recognizing the density and weight of how damn cold that iarmass is and will be

 

so, the arctic air will inevitably sprawl out and press south (likely more than current forecast models show) due to the weight and density of it

Great point, seen this happen countless times in observing artic outbreaks. I'll take -30c airmass setting up shop in SE Canada. Now we just need a southern stream wave or two to pass by and alot of us will be in business. The trends are very encouraging for the first time all winter. Might be the ole SE ridge we've been cursing all winter ends up helping us out by putting up just enough resistance to the heavy artic air pressing down it keeps the storm tracks through the SE as oppossed to supressed through the central GOM OTS.

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This might belong in the banter thread but wanted to say that pages 53-54 of this thread, might be some of the best discussion in the SE forum since the switch from Eastern to American! Great job to all those who chimed in. A lot of awesome info on winter weather.....keep up the good work crew.

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Nope. It belongs in this thread. I 100% agree with your statement.

Question.. Since this thread is already over 50 Pages (for those that do not change the post count per page) should we create a new thread for general jan discussion and patterns?

I know in the past the +50 page MEGA threads were not cool.

Just a thought..

This might belong in the banter thread but wanted to say that pages 53-54 of this thread, might be some of the best discussion in the SE forum since the switch from Eastern to American! Great job to all those who chimed in. A lot of awesome info on winter weather.....keep up the good work crew.

 

 

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Nope. It belongs in this thread. I 100% agree with your statement.

Question.. Since this thread is already over 50 Pages (for those that do not change the post count per page) should we create a new thread for general jan discussion and patterns?

I know in the past the +50 page MEGA threads were not cool.

Just a thought..

Better not let Wilkes see this post. On the other hand, he's very busy lately and isn't posting, according to his comment the other day. So carry on. :)

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Regarding that system toward the end of next week, I would be concerned about the possibility of this thing getting crushed to oblivion due to the polar vortex sitting there north of the Great Lakes moreso than it trending too warm for most. It's at least just as big of a concern. 

 

Hello, polar vortex:

post-390-0-50129500-1357824832_thumb.png

post-390-0-04265000-1357824847_thumb.png

 

And yes, the Canadian did look nice...

post-390-0-51634000-1357824866_thumb.gif

 

 

 

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DT posted early this am the following:  "With regard to the potential for any significant winter storms ...there is nothing on the horizon to even talk about. As I discussed above the overall weather pattern over the eastern half of the country is way too warm and quite quite hostile to a ANY sort of significant winter storm development over the next seven days JAN 10-16. And even after the pattern turns substantially colder there is only the bare hint that there might be some sort of event around January 22."

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DT posted early this am the following:  "With regard to the potential for any significant winter storms ...there is nothing on the horizon to even talk about. As I discussed above the overall weather pattern over the eastern half of the country is way too warm and quite quite hostile to a ANY sort of significant winter storm development over the next seven days JAN 10-16. And even after the pattern turns substantially colder there is only the bare hint that there might be some sort of event around January 22."

 

Yeah, there's not too much going on between now and the 16th...we ALL know this already. 

 

I know many like to read his discussions but there are plenty of experts on this board who I would trust much more....just saying!

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Regarding that system toward the end of next week, I would be concerned about the possibility of this thing getting crushed to oblivion due to the polar vortex sitting there north of the Great Lakes moreso than it trending too warm for most. It's at least just as big of a concern. 

 

This would be much like the cold outbreak of early Jan 2010.... we saw arctic air and every system was thrown down to Cuba. it would require good timing that's for sure, hopefully we could get that system to slide in at the same time the PV is just getting entrenched. 

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Nasty set of storms now tornado warned in LA. points east will have to keep a eye on this.

 

 

Tornado Warning
TORNADO WARNINGLAC005-033-101415-/O.NEW.KLIX.TO.W.0002.130110T1350Z-130110T1415Z/BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTEDTORNADO WARNINGNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA750 AM CST THU JAN 10 2013THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN NEW ORLEANS HAS ISSUED A* TORNADO WARNING FOR...  ASCENSION PARISH IN SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA...  THIS INCLUDES THE CITY OF GONZALES...  SOUTHEASTERN EAST BATON ROUGE PARISH IN SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA...* UNTIL 815 AM CST* AT 747 AM CST...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS DETECTED A  SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO NEAR GEISMER...  OR NEAR DONALDSONVILLE...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 25 MPH.* THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WILL BE NEAR...  GEISMER BY 800 AM CST...  GONZALES BY 810 AM CST...  PRAIRIEVILLE BY 815 AM CST...PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...THE SAFEST PLACE TO BE DURING A TORNADO IS UNDER A WORKBENCH OR OTHERPIECE OF STURDY FURNITURE. SEEK SHELTER ON THE LOWEST FLOOR OF THEBUILDING IN AN INTERIOR HALLWAY OR ROOM SUCH AS A CLOSET. USEBLANKETS OR PILLOWS TO COVER YOUR BODY AND ALWAYS STAY AWAY FROMWINDOWS.IF IN MOBILE HOMES OR VEHICLES...EVACUATE THEM AND GET INSIDE ASUBSTANTIAL SHELTER. IF NO SHELTER IS AVAILABLE...LIE FLAT IN THENEAREST DITCH OR OTHER LOW SPOT AND COVER YOUR HEAD WITH YOUR HANDS.PLEASE FOLLOW OUR OFFICE ON BOTH FACEBOOK AND TWITTER FOR MOREINFORMATION ON SEVERE WEATHER AND TO RELAY WEATHER REPORTS ANDPHOTOS.A TORNADO WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 200 PM CST THURSDAY AFTERNOONFOR SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA AND SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI.&&LAT...LON 3042 9098 3041 9096 3040 9097 3039 9095      3036 9093 3034 9087 3032 9083 3029 9083      3027 9081 3028 9079 3025 9078 3010 9101      3013 9109 3015 9109TIME...MOT...LOC 1350Z 220DEG 20KT 3015 9103$$24/RR
TORNADO WARNINGLAC033-047-101415-/O.NEW.KLIX.TO.W.0001.130110T1346Z-130110T1415Z/BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTEDTORNADO WARNINGNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA746 AM CST THU JAN 10 2013THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN NEW ORLEANS HAS ISSUED A* TORNADO WARNING FOR...  EASTERN EAST BATON ROUGE PARISH IN SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA...  THIS INCLUDES THE CITIES OF...OAK HILLS PLACE...BATON ROUGE...  EXTREME EAST CENTRAL IBERVILLE PARISH IN SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA...* UNTIL 815 AM CST* AT 742 AM CST...THE PUBLIC REPORTED A TORNADO NEAR OAK HILLS  PLACE...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 25 MPH.* THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WILL BE NEAR...  WESTMINSTER BY 755 AM CST...  6 MILES SOUTHEAST OF BATON ROUGE BY 800 AM CST...  GREENWELL SPRING BY 815 AM CST...PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...THE SAFEST PLACE TO BE DURING A TORNADO IS UNDER A WORKBENCH OR OTHERPIECE OF STURDY FURNITURE. SEEK SHELTER ON THE LOWEST FLOOR OF THEBUILDING IN AN INTERIOR HALLWAY OR ROOM SUCH AS A CLOSET. USEBLANKETS OR PILLOWS TO COVER YOUR BODY AND ALWAYS STAY AWAY FROMWINDOWS.IF IN MOBILE HOMES OR VEHICLES...EVACUATE THEM AND GET INSIDE ASUBSTANTIAL SHELTER. IF NO SHELTER IS AVAILABLE...LIE FLAT IN THENEAREST DITCH OR OTHER LOW SPOT AND COVER YOUR HEAD WITH YOUR HANDS.PLEASE FOLLOW OUR OFFICE ON BOTH FACEBOOK AND TWITTER FOR MOREINFORMATION ON SEVERE WEATHER AND TO RELAY WEATHER REPORTS ANDPHOTOS.A TORNADO WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 200 PM CST THURSDAY AFTERNOONFOR SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA AND SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI.&&LAT...LON 3066 9105 3061 9094 3058 9099 3047 9097      3046 9099 3041 9096 3040 9097 3039 9095      3036 9093 3034 9094 3034 9101 3028 9104      3029 9113 3033 9115 3035 9118TIME...MOT...LOC 1346Z 203DEG 23KT 3034 9107$$24/RR
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DT posted early this am the following:  "With regard to the potential for any significant winter storms ...there is nothing on the horizon to even talk about. As I discussed above the overall weather pattern over the eastern half of the country is way too warm and quite quite hostile to a ANY sort of significant winter storm development over the next seven days JAN 10-16. And even after the pattern turns substantially colder there is only the bare hint that there might be some sort of event around January 22."

 

DT's secret weather forecaster. http://glossynews.com/funnyhitman/weather.php

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Here are two images from the GFS. The first one shows the SE high sitting over south Florida and Cuba with a 582 line passing through North Georgia. 

gfs_namer_033_500_vort_ht.gif

 

The next image is a few frames later in the run. Notice how the high has pushed NE of it's earlier location and the 582 line is now in south Florida.  That SE high location would keep the cold air flowing south instead of trying to push east. 

 

gfs_namer_174_500_vort_ht.gif

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