DaculaWeather Posted January 10, 2013 Share Posted January 10, 2013 Thanks! another thing to notice is that some of these temperatures are approaching or exceeding the peak temps for the current time period. Definitely a strong event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAD_Wedge_NC Posted January 10, 2013 Share Posted January 10, 2013 I havent seen it mentioned but the Euro EPS ensemble on Accuweather shows a nice snow storm for I-20 north on next friday. Just something to note. What are the temps looking like? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted January 10, 2013 Author Share Posted January 10, 2013 What is the EPS ensemble? How is it different from the euro ensemble, if there is a difference? This is the first year I have heard that jargon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowacane Posted January 10, 2013 Share Posted January 10, 2013 Please refrain from attacking actual meteorologists on this board (friendly reminder -- you are NOT one). It takes a special brand arrogance and gall to claim that y ou and others have some sort of special insight that PAID AND EDUCATED professionals don't. Some us prefer reading what actual meteorologists have to say rather than, say, you. But when they are attacked by weenies who even go to sleep wearing their snow-colored glasses, it discourages them from posting. Hopefully a mod will take care of this nonsense. Completely agree. . . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tnweathernut Posted January 10, 2013 Share Posted January 10, 2013 EXCELLENT post...what a wonderful contributor you are to this thread!!! You HIT THE NAIL ON THE PROVERBIAL HEAD!!!! "The biggest difference between the SSWE this year and the SSWE last year is that this year's is propagating into the troposphere and last year's did not." That is the KEY difference. If the warming/wind reversal does NOT propagate to the troposphere, who cares? Look at last winter. Also, if you have been watching the MJO forecasts for years like I have, most of the time these stronger MJO waves are indeed killed too quickly and I feel pretty sure that this one will make it to at least phase 8 if not farther. Everyone just needs to relax and Take a week off from the models. Don't bother to look because they are going to go back and forth and back and forth because they don't know how to handle the Pacific just yet - this is a crucial period to just sit, wait, and be quiet. Go out and enjoy the 70 degree weather. I couldn't agree more. This is a great point. I have also noticed this. This appears to be a rather strong wave. I think there is a better than 50/50 chance is continues the progression into phase 8 ...................and maybe further too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ncwinterwxman Posted January 10, 2013 Share Posted January 10, 2013 Yes...in fact, I think most models are also underestimating the current strength of the wave by quite a bit right now and that IS important and DOES mean something to those who are paying attention. Sorry if my tone caught you and others offguard but I am a very passionate debater I couldn't agree more. This is a great point. I have also noticed this. This appears to be a rather strong wave. I think there is a better than 50/50 chance is continues the progression into phase 8 ...................and maybe further too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted January 10, 2013 Share Posted January 10, 2013 I havent seen it mentioned but the Euro EPS ensemble on Accuweather shows a nice snow storm for I-20 north on next friday. Just something to note. The OP run wasn't far off either, it ejects the closed southern low but it's supressed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stovepipe Posted January 10, 2013 Share Posted January 10, 2013 Yes...in fact, I think most models are also underestimating the current strength of the wave by quite a bit right now and that IS important and DOES mean something to those who are paying attention. Sorry if my tone caught you and others offguard but I am a very passionate debater I appreciate the passion and the attention to detail as opposed to some that throw vague notions out there without much to back it up. Good stuff man, and you score points in my book for not wearing the red tag even though you earned it. Rock on. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ncwinterwxman Posted January 10, 2013 Share Posted January 10, 2013 All- This was another excellent exchange that was brought up in another thread (the main thread) and so I thought I would repost it here in this thread. See the bolded. "Very interesting theory that I was thinking of for the past couple of days. It seems that the GFS/GFES having the MJO at Phase 6 and then hitting a brick wall near Phase 7 is just a trick. Notice that the MJO loops around at Phase 6? It looks like wants to progress towards Phase 7 between January 28th to February 5th." Nzucker says in response: "There's been a lot of discussion of this, and it has to do with a statistical filtering technique I believe. The MJO should continue to progress towards Phase 7 and potentially Phase 8 by the end of the month. We're lucky in that the favorable Pacific induced by these MJO phases should coincide with a favorable high-latitude blocking pattern brought about by the stratospheric warming. I'm looking at a snowstorm chance around 1/19 with a PNA spike, and then again towards the end of January as the PNA wants to rise again. Two big opportunities there assuming the -NAO develops as modeled and as theorized by the mid-winter warming." LOTS of reasons to be optimistic indeed Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BrierCreekWx Posted January 10, 2013 Share Posted January 10, 2013 All- This was another excellent exchange that was brought up in another thread (the main thread) and so I thought I would repost it here in this thread. See the bolded. "Very interesting theory that I was thinking of for the past couple of days. It seems that the GFS/GFES having the MJO at Phase 6 and then hitting a brick wall near Phase 7 is just a trick. Notice that the MJO loops around at Phase 6? It looks like wants to progress towards Phase 7 between January 28th to February 5th." Nzucker says in response: "There's been a lot of discussion of this, and it has to do with a statistical filtering technique I believe. The MJO should continue to progress towards Phase 7 and potentially Phase 8 by the end of the month. We're lucky in that the favorable Pacific induced by these MJO phases should coincide with a favorable high-latitude blocking pattern brought about by the stratospheric warming. I'm looking at a snowstorm chance around 1/19 with a PNA spike, and then again towards the end of January as the PNA wants to rise again. Two big opportunities there assuming the -NAO develops as modeled and as theorized by the mid-winter warming." LOTS of reasons to be optimistic indeed So the models have the MJO forecast WRONG but the rest of the synoptic pattern RIGHT? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
metalicwx366 Posted January 10, 2013 Share Posted January 10, 2013 So the models have the MJO forecast WRONG but the rest of the synoptic pattern RIGHT?I don't get it either. How will it just do the opposite of what the models say? I bet if it were going in the other direction folks would say we have there is good agreement on the MJO forecast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ncwinterwxman Posted January 10, 2013 Share Posted January 10, 2013 Correct...well, to some degree...look at the CFS forecasts back in late December...they were calling for wall to wall cold even down into the SE...BUT BUT BUT...these cold forecasts were based on factors OTHER than the MJO...the MJO forecasts were arguing AGAINST the cold for the SE while the NAFES and CFS were saying yes cold is on the way...I think everyone can see now why the CFS probably busted for the SE...yea...a strong MJO phase 5 and phase 6 will do that for ya The MJO signal can easily overwhelm the other teleconnectors when it is as strong as this wave appears to be. So, since it appears that the MJO forecasts are WRONG...I think the model projected synoptic pattern forecasts are going to probably flip flop over the next week or so. That is why I am saying don't look for the next week or so...because I think they are not taking into account the MJO forcing just yet...watch the west coast...I will be willing to bet that the PNA is going to go extremely positive within the next 2-3 weeks after this wave has done its dirty work. We just have to be patient. So the models have the MJO forecast WRONG but the rest of the synoptic pattern RIGHT? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bhamwx205 Posted January 10, 2013 Share Posted January 10, 2013 I don't get it either. How will it just do the opposite of what the models say? I bet if it were going in the other direction folks would say we have there is good agreement on the MJO forecast. It can do the opposite of what the models say just like anything. The nao ao pna whatever. Thats why its a FORECAST Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ncwinterwxman Posted January 10, 2013 Share Posted January 10, 2013 While the MJO is a rather large scale feature (PLANETARY scale), it is NOT modeled well because its main impacts are felt over the data sparse Pacific...and given that it takes two to three weeks to impact the pattern, I would not bet the models will catch on for at least another week or so. Good question. I don't get it either. How will it just do the opposite of what the models say? I bet if it were going in the other direction folks would say we have there is good agreement on the MJO forecast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted January 10, 2013 Author Share Posted January 10, 2013 If the models are killing the MJO too quickly, then it stands to reason that they would incorrectly model how the Rossby wave train would affect the jet stream and the overall pattern. This would then yield a LR pattern depiction that might look unfavorable. Of course, that is assuming the evolution of the MJO is misrepresented in the modeling. And also the whole strat warming thing is rattling around in there somewhere. It's no surprise that the PV sometimes shows up in New England, Seattle, Northern Canada and the northern Atlantic, depending on the run. There really are a lot of options on the table at this point. No reason at all to give up yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bevo Posted January 10, 2013 Share Posted January 10, 2013 I don't get it either. How will it just do the opposite of what the models say? I bet if it were going in the other direction folks would say we have there is good agreement on the MJO forecast. Would you agree that the season we're having is opposite to what the models have projected since the first of December? Just sayin'. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted January 10, 2013 Share Posted January 10, 2013 What is the EPS ensemble? How is it different from the euro ensemble, if there is a difference? This is the first year I have heard that jargon. I honestly dont know the answer to that question. Can someone answer that for me? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted January 10, 2013 Share Posted January 10, 2013 I honestly dont know the answer to that question. Can someone answer that for me? AccuW has the control run of the Euro EPS. It's one of the ensemble members. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ncwinterwxman Posted January 10, 2013 Share Posted January 10, 2013 EPS - Ensemble Prediction System...for the ECMWF...that includes all 51 ensemble members...so you can technically say EPS when referencing the ECMWF ensemble members...all this technical jargon...*sigh*...I know http://www.ecmwf.int/services/dissemination/3.1/Ensemble_Prediction_System.html I honestly dont know the answer to that question. Can someone answer that for me? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nrhardin Posted January 10, 2013 Share Posted January 10, 2013 So the models have the MJO forecast WRONG but the rest of the synoptic pattern RIGHT? Bradley, the other viewpoint could be that the synoptic pattern is wrong but the MJO pattern is right. Look, all of us are here because we want sustained cold. I am of the opinion that I'll take my chances on transient cold shots and an active southern stream. Also well placed high pressure over the GL. This is the south...anomalous sustained cold is the exception, not the rule. Having spent winters forecasting in Alaska I can honestly say cold is terribly overrated. Give me 70s in January and a snow or ice storm days later. Also remember that the larger the scale, the more likely model output is to be correct. Paired with established biases in MJO forecasting and projection issues, I don't see any reason to panic. Climo is also still on our side. If in two months we don't have any appreciable snow (in the triangle), I'll gladly eat crow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCSNOW Posted January 10, 2013 Share Posted January 10, 2013 0z GFS says next weekend will be 360 degree opposite of the weather for this upcoming weekend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Aubighitter Posted January 10, 2013 Share Posted January 10, 2013 Sorry should be 180 couldn't resist. 360 indicates we are right back where we started. I think goofy is trying to catch hold of something. Trying to head back towards colder solution. Southeast ridge definitely takes a beating this run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HKY_WX Posted January 10, 2013 Share Posted January 10, 2013 The cfs continues to be very bullish w/ the blocking. This time in a much more favorable position than the december blocking the led to a pattern change. The AO is about to start diving later this week. The warmth will peak this week and then we'll see gradually colder air starting from the pacific NW to the plains and then east as the blocking builds into greenland. Best time for a storm in Jan will be the last 10 days. I still like February as our best month overall. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WilkesboroDude Posted January 10, 2013 Share Posted January 10, 2013 Finally some top notch discussion going on here. I like when mets question and reason with each other. One sided weather agreements are boring. This does not look good IMO...and I agree w/ the Mid Atlantic region. A strong MJO dying right on the phase 6-7 border is a good sign of a bad winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Aubighitter Posted January 10, 2013 Share Posted January 10, 2013 Ukmet cold after 192 most of US. According to post on twitter by Ryan maue. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted January 10, 2013 Share Posted January 10, 2013 0Z Euro:very intense and large Arctic outbreak northern US..will it be a big player for SE? Stay tuned. This run is even colder than the last run! Major winter storm (snow) Miller A 1/18 parts of SE Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WilkesboroDude Posted January 10, 2013 Share Posted January 10, 2013 80 Degrees now not out of the question for Sunday, especially south and east of Raleigh.....Greg Fishel Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ColdRainsStr8cashhomey Posted January 10, 2013 Share Posted January 10, 2013 Bradley, the other viewpoint could be that the synoptic pattern is wrong but the MJO pattern is right. Look, all of us are here because we want sustained cold. I am of the opinion that I'll take my chances on transient cold shots and an active southern stream. Also well placed high pressure over the GL. This is the south...anomalous sustained cold is the exception, not the rule. Having spent winters forecasting in Alaska I can honestly say cold is terribly overrated. Give me 70s in January and a snow or ice storm days later. Also remember that the larger the scale, the more likely model output is to be correct. Paired with established biases in MJO forecasting and projection issues, I don't see any reason to panic. Climo is also still on our side. If in two months we don't have any appreciable snow (in the triangle), I'll gladly eat crow. a reasonable, realistic approach to winter in the south I stated the same thing yesterday afternoon... give me an active southern stream and games will inevitably follow... better yet, knowing that transient cold shots are the rule, all we need is an active subtropical jet and some ULLs capable of manufacturing their own cold/snow within their cold-cores and it's for some folks Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted January 10, 2013 Share Posted January 10, 2013 a reasonable, realistic approach to winter in the south I stated the same thing yesterday afternoon... give me an active southern stream and games will inevitably follow... better yet, an active subtropical jet and some ULLs capable of maufacturing their own cold within their cold-cores and it's for some folks I agree, nothing worse than highs in the teens with a strong wind and no snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted January 10, 2013 Share Posted January 10, 2013 I honestly dont know the answer to that question. Can someone answer that for me? From how I understood it, as opposed to taking all the ENS runs and creating a medium (with a somewhat cone of spread) the EPS Control run takes all 51 members and tries to create a run without any variable of the 51 members thus the "control" aspect of it. So it basically says, let's do a run that looks most like the mean but not with the data the mean has given. At least I think that's what it is anyways. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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