January Pattern and Storm Discussion

[DaculaWeather]

I like these time series cross-sections that slowly build day by day http://www.daculaweather.com/4_strat_details.php

 

[DaculaWeather]

You can see here when the winds stopped (white area) and now reversed

 

[Poimen]

Thanks Dacula. I've been following that thread and it is well worth the read. Thanks for your input.

[BrierCreekWx]

Since you have no patience, I would refrain from looking at the models for the next week to 10 days at least until the true pattern establishes itself...man...it's going to be a long two weeks...no one ever said the pattern was going to change overnight...it will be AT LEAST January 24th (last week of January) before we see any real pattern change as others and myself have said 1000000 times...patience is a virtue my friend :-)  Now, go and in the 80000 degree January sun and we'll see you in 10 days

PLEASE tell me exactly how it is that you already know a pattern change to something wintry is coming? Is it the dying phase 7 MJO? Pretty sure that won't work, and only one model is even attempting to keep it going long enough to have a significant impact. I do not, and have not, seen anything that indicates a pattern change to anything significantly colder than we have seen all winter. I hope I am wrong, but I do not think that I am. Additionally, we have gone through this again and again, but a SSW leading to a negative AO is not going to fix our pattern by itself. We had a more intense SSW last January than what is happening now, and how did that work out? Not to mention all of December had a significantly negative AO, and was the 7th warmest December on record for NC based on average temperatures. 

 

So specifically, how are you so confident that there is anything to drive a significant pattern change to something wintry - which is all I have said that I do not see. Never said the pattern wouldn't change, of course it won't be 70 for the rest of the winter!

[MillerA]

in case you don't follow allan or don't have twitter:

 

 

Allan Huffman ‏@RaleighWx

12z ECMWF close to southeast snow. But keeps most moisture supressed. Euro Ensemble a bit wetter with more potential for 1/18 to 1/19.

 

 

Allan Huffman ‏@RaleighWx

Euro Ensemble also shows persistent -NAO through day 15. Pattern does moderate some but remains cool looking through period.

[GaWx]

 Very cold upper Midwest/N. Plains 18Z GFS day 8 fwiw.

[beanskip]

Please refrain from attacking actual meteorologists on this board (friendly reminder -- you are NOT one). It takes a special brand arrogance and gall to claim that y ou and others have some sort of special insight that PAID AND EDUCATED professionals don't.

 

Some us prefer reading what actual meteorologists have to say rather than, say, you. But when they are attacked by weenies who even go to sleep wearing their snow-colored glasses, it discourages them from posting. Hopefully a mod will take care of this nonsense.

 

 

Since you have no patience, I would refrain from looking at the models for the next week to 10 days at least until the true pattern establishes itself...man...it's going to be a long two weeks...no one ever said the pattern was going to change overnight...it will be AT LEAST January 24th (last week of January) before we see any real pattern change as others and myself have said 1000000 times...patience is a virtue my friend :-)  Now, go and in the 80000 degree January sun and we'll see you in 10 days

 

 

[burgertime]

18z was very close to a big one at around 204 - 240 which actually lines up well with the Euro....but that is after truncation. 

[beanskip]

Yeah, the look at 192 was the best pre-truncation frame in a while. S/w holding together on the Gulf Coast, trying to plow through the SE ridge.

18z was very close to a big one at around 204 - 240 which actually lines up well with the Euro....but that is after truncation. 

 

 

[burgertime]

Yeah, the look at 192 was the best pre-truncation frame in a while. S/w holding together on the Gulf Coast, trying to plow through the SE ridge.

 

Our arch nemesis the SE ridge...it will probably win 9/10 times. 

[wncsnow]

It looks to me that the models are hinting at a cold short around the 18th-20th period then a warm up leading up to another potential cold short late in the month, I think this is more viable than a long term cold wave with the MJO and PNA in their current states.

[BristowWx]

It looks to me that the models are hinting at a cold short around the 18th-20th period then a warm up leading up to another potential cold short late in the month, I think this is more viable than a long term cold wave with the MJO and PNA in their current states.

On the GFS op I agree...but the Euro ens keep a -NAO thru day 15...point being I don't think we are done with the major shifts. And the MJO is moving along fairly well toward 7... Not great but 8 is nice so maybe if we can keep that moving along things will get better...MJO needs to death spiral in 8-1.... Maybe cold..seasonal...colder

[burgertime]

GFS @384 Yikes....      

[tnweathernut]

I disagree with Brier, respectfully so of course...... that there is nothing pointing toward anything different than what we have already had this winter. Ensembles have "mostly" looked a lot better toward 1/20 and beyond. With the AO progged to be negative, maybe severely so, and the same with the NAO going negative, we still have to greatly consider the PNA, which has been our Achilles heel for two plus years now. Even it looks much less negative toward positive down the road. Mix in a SSW (which I know doesn't HAVE to mean the cold comes to our side if the globe, but it doesn't mean it can't) to go along with a great time for winter in the southeast (late Jan to early and mid Feb) and I would think there is a TON of reasons to be optimistic. Really the biggest thorn I see is the MJO, but like other things it is only a forecast and subject to change.

All this said, I really appreciate differing viewpoints like Brier's and others, as they keep me grounded and I think that is a good thing. I STRONGLY agree that attacks against mets (and non mets) have no place in this forum.

Robert, and other mets are on board with a meaningful pattern change so that also gives me another reason to be optimistic. One thing is for sure, time will tell us who was thinking right. I for one look forward to simply watching and will continue to be optimistic.

[Bevo]

It looks to me that the models are hinting at a cold short around the 18th-20th period then a warm up leading up to another potential cold short late in the month, I think this is more viable than a long term cold wave with the MJO and PNA in their current states.

 

I don't know if it's PNA or MJO driven, but that is viable in any normal winter here.  The SE (at least SC and southward) see this every winter - stretches of seasonal with shots of colder.  I'm not sure why we're looking for a two month long tundra.  That doesn't happen here in a normal winter season.

 

A wise weatherman once explained that reality to me, and it has held true since. How's that PNA tickle your MJO ColdRainStr8cashhomey? You have explained it many times in much better words.

[Cold Rain]

I believe that over the next cycle, we shall see the MJO a little more favorably modeled, with a stronger depiction into Phase 7...maybe even more of a presentation into Phase 8. If that happens, we should see a more favorable LR pattern more consistently depicted.

[Poimen]

I believe that over the next cycle, we shall see the MJO a little more favorably modeled, with a stronger depiction into Phase 7...maybe even more of a presentation into Phase 8. If that happens, we should see a more favorable LR pattern more consistently depicted.

.

Yeah the MJO forecast is not yet settled and the other indices are moving in the right direction.

[GreensboroWx]

You can see here when the winds stopped (white area) and now reversed

 

 

I'm really intrigued by this science and enjoy learning and reading your posts. Any kind of insight to long term winter forecasting is great. Please keep us up to date. 

[BrierCreekWx]

Please refrain from attacking actual meteorologists on this board (friendly reminder -- you are NOT one). It takes a special brand arrogance and gall to claim that y ou and others have some sort of special insight that PAID AND EDUCATED professionals don't.

I actually personally and professionally know ncwinterwxman, and he actually holds a meteorology degree from NCSU, like myself. This familiarity is what draws some of our more intense debates, I suppose, but they're nothing more than that, and I actually enjoy the back and forth as long as they're  focused on actual meteorological reasoning.

 

I disagree with Brier, respectfully so of course...... 

 

All this said, I really appreciate differing viewpoints like Brier's and others, as they keep me grounded and I think that is a good thing.

Thanks, it's always good to have multiple opinions, and I enjoy discussing them here in the forecast discussion! Maybe (hopefully) in the coming days I'll see the indications that I'm looking for, I sure hope I do at some point

[GreensboroWx]

I continue to see no indications from any indices or modeling of a pattern change to something more wintry or different than what we've seen all winter, are on the way. If we're hoping for seasonal conditions with highs in the upper 40s and low 50s, then sure I'm on board. But frozen precipitation and highs in the 30s? I don't see it.

 

 

I have to agree and disagree with your post. I agree the modeling is flip flopping around and really shows no strong indication of major, sustained cold BUT......a lot of indices show otherwise. Yes, a -AO will not do it alone but there are indications of a strong +PNA and -NAO. Also, reading other posts from people much smarter than me say the MJO is fcst to head into 7/8 territory (although, some model runs aren't showing this) as well as the SSW. All of this combined, I THINK, will push us over the edge to favorable winter weather for the SE. 

 

It's interesting to watch and reading posts for/against the pattern change keeps me on my toes forces me to study things more closely. 

 

Just my opinion!

[ColdRainsStr8cashhomey]

I don't know if it's PNA or MJO driven, but that is viable in any normal winter here.  The SE (at least SC and southward) see this every winter - stretches of seasonal with shots of colder.  I'm not sure why we're looking for a two month long tundra.  That doesn't happen here in a normal winter season.

 

A wise weatherman once explained that reality to me, and it has held true since. How's that PNA tickle your MJO ColdRainStr8cashhomey? You have explained it many times in much better words.

 

Yeah Bevo, we really don't need a brutal stretch of cold to produce (example below). I will take an active southern branch over sustained cold any day.  How many cliff-divers would we have with a -NAO, +PNA, -AO and a southern branch throwing cactus after cactus at us... I would jump.  I understand that infatuation with brutal cold, but it just rarely happens and really isn't necessary.  Dynamic storms, however, are necessary.  Those looking for sustained, bone-chilling cold are going to be disappointed.

 

With the understanding that sustained cold rarely happens here in the Upstate of SC, it's easy to conclude that we get our events with 1-3 days cold shots (if that) with an active southern branch.  ~60% of the time it's a Miller-A coastal with a good fetch of moisture from a southern branch which happen to slide under a nice PNA ridge in the split flow.  ~40% of the time it happens like March of '09 - where a 4-5 contour cutoff rolls south from Montana to Mississippi and then rounds the bend, develops a solid trowel on it's northwest flank and poodle-chokes folks with snow under some -3C to -6C 850s with thundersnow reports from all over the area.  Give me another big cutoff with somewhere in the neighborhood of -4to -5C at 850 temps over our heads and it's game set match no matter how many folks are complaining about the present warmth or how warm the winter has been before the system or will be after it.

 

Did we need a massive cold shot to get snow in March of '09?  Nope, we were in the 60s the day before when 95% of people said that snow wouldn't stick.  That was before sustained snow-rates of 1-2" per hour smacked the ground for several hours around sunset and a good coating of snow was established within the first 30-minutes of the storm.  Personally, I want a big bowling ball of an ULL because you don't even need any cold shot of air preceding it.  The ULL will manufacture it's own cold and dynamically cool the column from the top-down to the ground.  This same sort of situation has also happened many times in Tennessee while I grew up there and will happen again.  It sure seems like we are ripe for some ULLs with as many as are showing up in the southern stream.

[Southern Track]

yea Bevo, we really don't need a brutal stretch of cold to produce... I will take an active southern branch over sustained cold any day. How many cliff-divers would we have with a -NAO, +PNA, -AO and a southern branch throwing cactus after cactus at us... I would jump

Bottom line is sustained cold rarely happens here in the Upstate of SC. We get our events with 1-3 days cold shots (if that) with an active southern branch. 60% of the time it's a Miller-A coastal with a good fetch of moisture from a southern branch which happen to slide under a nice PNA ridge in the split flow. 40% of the time it happens like March of '09 - where a 4-5 contur cutoff rolls south from Montana to Mississippi and then rounds the bend, develops a solid trowel on it's northwest flank and poodle-chokes folks with snow under some -3C to -6C 850s with thundersnow reports from all over the area. Give me another big cutoff with somewhere in the neighborhood of -4to -5C at 850 over our heads and it's game set match no matter how many folks are complaining about how warm the winter has been or will be.

Did we need a massive cold shot to get snow in March of '09? Na, we were in the 60s the day before when 95% of people said that snow wouldn't stick. That was before sustained snow-rates of 1-2" per hour smacked the ground for several hours around sunset and a good coating of snow was established within the first 30-minutes of the storm. Personally, I want a big bowling ball of an ULL because you don't even need any cold shot of air preceding it. The ULL will manufacture it's own cold and dynamically cool the column from the top-down to the ground. This same sort of situation has also happened many times in Tennessee while I grew up there and will happen again. It sure seems like we are ripe for some ULLs with as many as are showing up in the southern stream.

Coming from Simpsonville, Cash, that ULL was a thing of beauty.

[Bevo]

yea Bevo, we really don't need a brutal stretch of cold to produce... I will take an active southern branch over sustained cold any day.  How many cliff-divers would we have with a -NAO, +PNA, -AO and a southern branch throwing cactus after cactus at us... I would jump

 

Bottom line is sustained cold rarely happens here in the Upstate of SC.  We get our events with 1-3 days cold shots (if that) with an active southern branch.  60% of the time it's a Miller-A coastal with a good fetch of moisture from a southern branch which happen to slide under a nice PNA ridge in the split flow.  40% of the time it happens like March of '09 - where a 4-5 contur cutoff rolls south from Montana to Mississippi and then rounds the bend, develops a solid trowel on it's northwest flank and poodle-chokes folks with snow under some -3C to -6C 850s with thundersnow reports from all over the area.  Give me another big cutoff with somewhere in the neighborhood of -4to -5C at 850 temps over our heads and it's game set match no matter how many folks are complaining about the present warmth or how warm the winter has been before the system or will be after it.

 

Did we need a massive cold shot to get snow in March of '09?  Nope, we were in the 60s the day before when 95% of people said that snow wouldn't stick.  That was before sustained snow-rates of 1-2" per hour smacked the ground for several hours around sunset and a good coating of snow was established within the first 30-minutes of the storm.  Personally, I want a big bowling ball of an ULL because you don't even need any cold shot of air preceding it.  The ULL will manufacture it's own cold and dynamically cool the column from the top-down to the ground.  This same sort of situation has also happened many times in Tennessee while I grew up there and will happen again.  It sure seems like we are ripe for some ULLs with as many as are showing up in the southern stream.

 

Correct.  The SE doesn't live through three months of igloo weather.  We tend to forget that fact when searching for winter.  

 

If I'm not mistaken, that March '09 storm was the snowball that sparked the now infamous Weather 'Squatch.  He was a Volunteer fan no less.

[ColdRainsStr8cashhomey]

Correct.  The SE doesn't live through three months of igloo weather.  We tend to forget that fact when searching for winter.  

 

If I'm not mistaken, that March '09 storm was the snowball that sparked the now infamous Weather 'Squatch.  He was a Volunteer fan no less.

 

that is correct... that guy is still saved on my computer at work

 

how about I send the picture to you tomorrow? ... you replace the TN cap on Sassy to "love ULLs" or something of that nature... I add it to my sig?

 

btw, I loved the "ZR is bad, mmmkay? - Mr Garrison photoshop image.  That was quality work.

[DaculaWeather]

I did a comparison between last years SSW and this one so far. The biggest different is that the SSW this year is propagating to the lower levels which didn't happen last year. Here's an image to refer to. I combined this year (on the left) and last year (on the right). I compared 1hPA, 10hPA, 30hPA, 50hPA, 70hPA. Several things stand out but keep in mind, the current event is still underway. Image is below this list

 

• 1hPA - 2012 warmed to -2 versus -13 so far this year. I looked at the 2hPA levels and they mimick this level.  After a brief pause, it is still on an almost vertical ramp. 
• 10hPA -  Here's where things start changing. Notice the duration of the event in 2012 which covered approximately 6 weeks. So far this year this level is within 2 degrees in less than half the time. The ramp is year is considerably steeper and very close to vertical.
• 30hPA - What you'll start to notice is that the heat is starting to exceed last years values. Already this year is warmer than last at thi.s level. This year is on a nearly vertical rise and still going. And again, event duration was 4-6 weeks in 2012, its been roughly 2 weeks to exceed last year.
• 50hPA - The level we're at now wasn't reached until almost April of last year. You'll notice the warming is propagating down to the lower levels, something it didn't do last year.
• 70hPA - This year has already exceeded last years entire winter peak and is on a vertical rise right now. 

 

 

If you look at the cross sections temp anomalies from this year and last, you'll notice that last year never strayed much past 0 for most of the winter (between 50-70hPA). 

 

 

Looking at this year, positive anomalies extend well below 150hPA and still trending downward.

 

 

From my understanding, the warming must propagate down in order to displace the cold air at the lower levels, and that's something that didn't happen very much last year. I would suspect the rapid (steep ramp) warm up is a signal that this isn't quite like last year and still has a way to go. 

 

Now... that being said..., I have no idea how that will effect the weather for us, and as BrierCreekWx said, it's no guarantee for cold weather. Bt I am encouraged by the trends toward a deep AO- as well as a NAO-, although again, where that decides to land will also decide our fate.

 

But I find it fascinating to watch. The forces and interactions there are pretty wild, especially considering there's almost no atmosphere there!

[ColdRainsStr8cashhomey]

From my understanding, the warming must propagate down in order to displace the cold air at the lower levels, and that's something that didn't happen very much last year. I would suspect the rapid (steep ramp) warm up is a signal that this isn't quite like last year. 

 

Now... that being said..., I have no idea how that will effect the weather for us, and as BrierCreekWx said, it's no guarantee for cold weather. Bt I am encouraged by the trends toward a deep AO- as well as a NAO-, although again, where that decides to land will also decide our fate.

 

But I find it fascinating to watch. The forces and interactions there are pretty wild, especially considering there's almost no atmosphere there!

 

you run a quality site at DaculaWeather.com

 

thanks for what you do!

[DaculaWeather]

you run a quality site at DaculaWeather.com

 

thanks for what you do!

 

Thank you very much!

[ncwinterwxman]

Haha...you thought I was attacking him?  Nah...just a friendly poke   And yes, I do have a degree and NO I do not desire a red tag because I don't claim to know everything (nor do I want anyone to think that I know everything) but I do however know enough to know that there IS some reason to be optimistic and that some need to stop coming on the board everyday declaring that winter is over and saying that there isn't any hope left...because the backside of the winter of 2012-2013 is going to be interesting to say the least...watch...just watch

Please refrain from attacking actual meteorologists on this board (friendly reminder -- you are NOT one). It takes a special brand arrogance and gall to claim that y ou and others have some sort of special insight that PAID AND EDUCATED professionals don't.

 

Some us prefer reading what actual meteorologists have to say rather than, say, you. But when they are attacked by weenies who even go to sleep wearing their snow-colored glasses, it discourages them from posting. Hopefully a mod will take care of this nonsense.

 

 

[ncwinterwxman]

EXCELLENT post...what a wonderful contributor you are to this thread!!!  You HIT THE NAIL ON THE PROVERBIAL HEAD!!!!  "The biggest difference between the SSWE this year and the SSWE last year is that this year's is propagating into the troposphere and last year's did not."  That is the KEY difference.  If the warming/wind reversal does NOT propagate to the troposphere, who cares?  Look at last winter.  Also, if you have been watching the MJO forecasts for years like I have, most of the time these stronger MJO waves are indeed killed too quickly and I feel pretty sure that this one will make it to at least phase 8 if not farther.  Everyone just needs to relax and   Take a week off from the models.  Don't bother to look because they are going to go back and forth and back and forth because they don't know how to handle the Pacific just yet - this is a crucial period to just sit, wait, and be quiet.  Go out and enjoy the 70 degree weather.  

I did a comparison between last years SSW and this one so far. The biggest different is that the SSW this year is propagating to the lower levels which didn't happen last year. Here's an image to refer to. I combined this year (on the left) and last year (on the right). I compared 1hPA, 10hPA, 30hPA, 50hPA, 70hPA. Several things stand out but keep in mind, the current event is still underway. Image is below this list

 

• 1hPA - 2012 warmed to -2 versus -13 so far this year. I looked at the 2hPA levels and they mimick this level.  After a brief pause, it is still on an almost vertical ramp. 
• 10hPA -  Here's where things start changing. Notice the duration of the event in 2012 which covered approximately 6 weeks. So far this year this level is within 2 degrees in less than half the time. The ramp is year is considerably steeper and very close to vertical.
• 30hPA - What you'll start to notice is that the heat is starting to exceed last years values. Already this year is warmer than last at thi.s level. This year is on a nearly vertical rise and still going. And again, event duration was 4-6 weeks in 2012, its been roughly 2 weeks to exceed last year.
• 50hPA - The level we're at now wasn't reached until almost April of last year. You'll notice the warming is propagating down to the lower levels, something it didn't do last year.
• 70hPA - This year has already exceeded last years entire winter peak and is on a vertical rise right now. 

 

 

If you look at the cross sections temp anomalies from this year and last, you'll notice that last year never strayed much past 0 for most of the winter (between 50-70hPA). 

 

 

Looking at this year, positive anomalies extend well below 150hPA and still trending downward.

 

 

From my understanding, the warming must propagate down in order to displace the cold air at the lower levels, and that's something that didn't happen very much last year. I would suspect the rapid (steep ramp) warm up is a signal that this isn't quite like last year and still has a way to go. 

 

Now... that being said..., I have no idea how that will effect the weather for us, and as BrierCreekWx said, it's no guarantee for cold weather. Bt I am encouraged by the trends toward a deep AO- as well as a NAO-, although again, where that decides to land will also decide our fate.

 

But I find it fascinating to watch. The forces and interactions there are pretty wild, especially considering there's almost no atmosphere there!

 

 

[BullCityWx]

I havent seen it mentioned but the Euro EPS ensemble on Accuweather shows a nice snow storm for I-20 north on next friday. Just something to note.