DaculaWeather Posted January 9, 2013 Share Posted January 9, 2013 There is no reason to look more than 5-7 days out right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WilkesboroDude Posted January 9, 2013 Share Posted January 9, 2013 We are on day 9 and Blacksburg is already punting to early Feb. Nearing the end of the month...a sudden stratospheric warming event is looking more and more likely to split the polar vortex. This interesting feature doesnt always send part of the split polar vortex onto our side of the hemisphere...however near day 10 some of the operational and ensemble guidance is indeed showing this outcome. It will be necessary to have some type of blocking over Greenland/west based -nao to force The Heart of the Arctic air into the middle Atlantic...else it will slide into New England. If proper blocking does set up with the south-southwest some of the coldest air in several years could arrive into our area late Jan/early Feb. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted January 9, 2013 Share Posted January 9, 2013 We are on day 9 and Blacksburg is already punting to early Feb.Nearing the end of the month...a sudden stratospheric warming event is looking more and more likely to split the polar vortex. This interesting feature doesnt always send part of the split polar vortex onto our side of the hemisphere...however near day 10 some of the operational and ensemble guidance is indeed showing this outcome. It will be necessary to have some type of blocking over Greenland/west based -nao to force The Heart of the Arctic air into the middle Atlantic...else it will slide into New England. If proper blocking does set up with the south-southwest some of the coldest air in several years could arrive into our area late Jan/early Feb. So what exactly do the mean by hat whole late Jan thing? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DaculaWeather Posted January 9, 2013 Share Posted January 9, 2013 Nothing was suppose to happen until the last week of January anyway. Patience young grasshopper! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cheeznado Posted January 9, 2013 Share Posted January 9, 2013 I for one am not sold yet on this big cold blast that some have been touting, especially here in the SE. The past several runs of the Euro ensembles have shown a negative NAO and AO developing but they seem to be not very robust and more east/north-based. The last several Op Euro runs have shown a cold shot into mainly the NE (but even there it is not consistent on how cold) in a week or so. The NE should see a pretty good shot of Arctic air, and cold will return to the SE, but the amplitude down here is a pretty big ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ColdRainsStr8cashhomey Posted January 9, 2013 Share Posted January 9, 2013 this may not be popular, but it is worth taking into account... (typed this up from blog post today) NASA - Magnetic North Shifting Slightly: There is some interesting research surfacing that could shed some light on the last couple of winters of warmth in the US. According to NASA researchers, "the Earth's magnetic field is weakening, and moving a faster rate than any of the rates of movement recorded in recent history." This movement has been documented (toward Russia and away from the US). It doesn't take a scientist to realize this means our location has shifted slightly closer to the equator.While We're Warm, Severe Cold Gripping Russia & China: It's interesting that his information is surfacing after Europe experienced it's worst winter in years last winter ('11-'12). News over on that side of the globe indicated as of last year that "Polish Experts Say Europe Having Worst Winter in 1,000 Years." Meanwhile this winter in China has been one for the record books as well. Also, "abnormally low winter temperatures in Russia continue to claim more and more lives. Twenty-one people froze to death in only one day; 147 others were hospitalized with frostbite." - http://english.pravda.ru/hotspots/disasters/19-12-2012/123232-russian_winter-0/ . Finally, this story telling of severe cold broke from China last week:http://www.reuters.com/article/2013/01/05/china-weather-idUSL4N0AA0D820130105 anti- post Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted January 9, 2013 Share Posted January 9, 2013 Looks like on this run of the Euro someone is going to get some wintry weather in the south. Gigantic huge grain of salt with this run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stovepipe Posted January 9, 2013 Share Posted January 9, 2013 this may not be popular, but it is worth taking into account... (typed this up from blog post today) NASA - Magnetic North Shifting Slightly: There is some interesting research surfacing that could shed some light on the last couple of winters of warmth in the US. According to NASA researchers, "the Earth's magnetic field is weakening, and moving a faster rate than any of the rates of movement recorded in recent history." This movement has been documented (toward Russia and away from the US). It doesn't take a scientist to realize this means our location has shifted slightly closer to the equator. While We're Warm, Severe Cold Gripping Russia & China: It's interesting that his information is surfacing after Europe experienced it's worst winter in years last winter ('11-'12). News over on that side of the globe indicated as of last year that "Polish Experts Say Europe Having Worst Winter in 1,000 Years." Meanwhile this winter in China has been one for the record books as well. Also, "abnormally low winter temperatures in Russia continue to claim more and more lives. Twenty-one people froze to death in only one day; 147 others were hospitalized with frostbite." - http://english.pravda.ru/hotspots/disasters/19-12-2012/123232-russian_winter-0/ . Finally, this story telling of severe cold broke from China last week: http://www.reuters.com/article/2013/01/05/china-weather-idUSL4N0AA0D820130105 anti- post Well that's interesting (and depressing), thanks for sharing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Poimen Posted January 9, 2013 Share Posted January 9, 2013 There is no reason to look more than 5-7 days out right now. Agree...at least with respects to details. Until the models can resolve the evolution of the SW UL beyond days 5-6, there will be much uncertainty beyond that time frame. Already, the 12Z EURO at 192 hours is significantly different from the 0Z run at 192 hours, with a colder look for the east at that time and a different solution with the SW UL/WRN US Ridging. All in all, I think we are still on board for a colder regime to take hold here by the 20th. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted January 9, 2013 Share Posted January 9, 2013 Agree...at least with respects to details. Until the models can resolve the evolution of the SW UL beyond days 5-6, there will be much uncertainty beyond that time frame. Already, the 12Z EURO at 192 hours is significantly different from the 0Z run at 192 hours, with a colder look for the east at that time and a different solution with the SW UL/WRN US Ridging. All in all, I think we are still on board for a colder regime to take hold here by the 20th. Nice...and the GFS ENS does not look horrible especially for the Upper SE..at least to this untrained eye Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted January 9, 2013 Share Posted January 9, 2013 We really want to root for what the 12z Euro is showing at the end of it's run. More of a good timing situation. Cold air spilling into NC/SC with a (as of now) weak low going through SC. and heading for the coast. While not really getting the job done I'll take my chances in this pattern with that look. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FallsLake Posted January 9, 2013 Share Posted January 9, 2013 How much does the magnetic pole affect weather patterns? I would think the true north would still have the sun angle advantage along with the earths rotation (spining weather features towards the S & E). this may not be popular, but it is worth taking into account... (typed this up from blog post today) NASA - Magnetic North Shifting Slightly: There is some interesting research surfacing that could shed some light on the last couple of winters of warmth in the US. According to NASA researchers, "the Earth's magnetic field is weakening, and moving a faster rate than any of the rates of movement recorded in recent history." This movement has been documented (toward Russia and away from the US). It doesn't take a scientist to realize this means our location has shifted slightly closer to the equator.While We're Warm, Severe Cold Gripping Russia & China: It's interesting that his information is surfacing after Europe experienced it's worst winter in years last winter ('11-'12). News over on that side of the globe indicated as of last year that "Polish Experts Say Europe Having Worst Winter in 1,000 Years." Meanwhile this winter in China has been one for the record books as well. Also, "abnormally low winter temperatures in Russia continue to claim more and more lives. Twenty-one people froze to death in only one day; 147 others were hospitalized with frostbite." - http://english.pravda.ru/hotspots/disasters/19-12-2012/123232-russian_winter-0/ . Finally, this story telling of severe cold broke from China last week:http://www.reuters.com/article/2013/01/05/china-weather-idUSL4N0AA0D820130105 anti- post Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jburns Posted January 9, 2013 Share Posted January 9, 2013 this may not be popular, but it is worth taking into account... (typed this up from blog post today) NASA - Magnetic North Shifting Slightly: There is some interesting research surfacing that could shed some light on the last couple of winters of warmth in the US. According to NASA researchers, "the Earth's magnetic field is weakening, and moving a faster rate than any of the rates of movement recorded in recent history." This movement has been documented (toward Russia and away from the US). It doesn't take a scientist to realize this means our location has shifted slightly closer to the equator. While We're Warm, Severe Cold Gripping Russia & China: It's interesting that his information is surfacing after Europe experienced it's worst winter in years last winter ('11-'12). News over on that side of the globe indicated as of last year that "Polish Experts Say Europe Having Worst Winter in 1,000 Years." Meanwhile this winter in China has been one for the record books as well. Also, "abnormally low winter temperatures in Russia continue to claim more and more lives. Twenty-one people froze to death in only one day; 147 others were hospitalized with frostbite." - http://english.pravda.ru/hotspots/disasters/19-12-2012/123232-russian_winter-0/ . Finally, this story telling of severe cold broke from China last week: http://www.reuters.com/article/2013/01/05/china-weather-idUSL4N0AA0D820130105 anti- post I've been around the forum for quite a few years. I think this is the first post suggesting a warm SE winter could be partially caused by a pole shift. Congrats. It might not be an anti-weenie post but it definitely is anti-boredom. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dwagner88 Posted January 9, 2013 Share Posted January 9, 2013 My current NWS forecast might be the gloomiest one I've ever seen for here. Rain every day for the next 7 and the chances seemingly increase more the farther out you go. Gonna be a very wet 7 days ahead. Probably too wet for those just to my west. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jburns Posted January 9, 2013 Share Posted January 9, 2013 My current NWS forecast might be the gloomiest one I've ever seen for here. Rain every day for the next 7 and the chances seemingly increase more the farther out you go. Gonna be a very wet 7 days ahead. Probably too wet for those just to my west. There's fun going on all across the SE. My weekend NWS forecast is Sat.- fog 71, Sun- fog 72. Sat. night's temps will plummet to 57, ten degrees warmer than my normal high. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Steven_1974 Posted January 9, 2013 Share Posted January 9, 2013 this may not be popular, but it is worth taking into account... (typed this up from blog post today) NASA - Magnetic North Shifting Slightly: There is some interesting research surfacing that could shed some light on the last couple of winters of warmth in the US. According to NASA researchers, "the Earth's magnetic field is weakening, and moving a faster rate than any of the rates of movement recorded in recent history." This movement has been documented (toward Russia and away from the US). It doesn't take a scientist to realize this means our location has shifted slightly closer to the equator. While We're Warm, Severe Cold Gripping Russia & China: It's interesting that his information is surfacing after Europe experienced it's worst winter in years last winter ('11-'12). News over on that side of the globe indicated as of last year that "Polish Experts Say Europe Having Worst Winter in 1,000 Years." Meanwhile this winter in China has been one for the record books as well. Also, "abnormally low winter temperatures in Russia continue to claim more and more lives. Twenty-one people froze to death in only one day; 147 others were hospitalized with frostbite." - http://english.pravda.ru/hotspots/disasters/19-12-2012/123232-russian_winter-0/ . Finally, this story telling of severe cold broke from China last week: http://www.reuters.com/article/2013/01/05/china-weather-idUSL4N0AA0D820130105 anti- post Only thing about magnetic north is does that correlate in any way to where the polar vortex would be situated? The Earth is as a tilt as it is that has nothing to do with the magnetic poles. Just because they shift, which they do all the time, doesn't change the Earth's tilt on its axis. So we're not moving closer to the equator. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BrierCreekWx Posted January 9, 2013 Share Posted January 9, 2013 I continue to see no indications from any indices or modeling of a pattern change to something more wintry or different than what we've seen all winter, are on the way. If we're hoping for seasonal conditions with highs in the upper 40s and low 50s, then sure I'm on board. But frozen precipitation and highs in the 30s? I don't see it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stovepipe Posted January 9, 2013 Share Posted January 9, 2013 My current NWS forecast might be the gloomiest one I've ever seen for here. Rain every day for the next 7 and the chances seemingly increase more the farther out you go. Gonna be a very wet 7 days ahead. Probably too wet for those just to my west. Yep d-wag, we can't even get out and enjoy our torch! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ColdRainsStr8cashhomey Posted January 9, 2013 Share Posted January 9, 2013 Only thing about magnetic north is does that correlate in any way to where the polar vortex would be situated? The Earth is as a tilt as it is that has nothing to do with the magnetic poles. Just because they shift, which they do all the time, doesn't change the Earth's tilt on its axis. So we're not moving closer to the equator. a shift in true magnetic north absolutely changes weather conditions across the globe... aside from any argument about the earth's tilt angle it should be humbling (yet, clearly isn't to a few members of this board) how very little we know about the earth, the earth's relationship with the sun, the earth's magnetosphere... and how a weakening magnetosphere (magnetic field) puts the earth in a more vulnerable position to the sun's ray Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packfan98 Posted January 9, 2013 Share Posted January 9, 2013 a shift in true magnetic north absolutely changes weather conditions across the globe... aside from any argument about the earth's tilt angle it should be humbling (yet, clearly isn't to many members of this board) how very little we know about the earth, it's magnetosphere and how a weakening magnetosphere (magnetic field) puts the earth in a more vulnerable position to the sun's rays Interesting for sure. Would this tilt effect the amount of daylight we get? Have sunrise/sunset times been adjusted or will they need to be? Just curious. Edit: I may have read this incorrectly about the tilt. Is it saying the tilt of the earth is changing or that the North Pole has been moved? I think I have confused myself! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WilkesboroDude Posted January 9, 2013 Share Posted January 9, 2013 I continue to see no indications from any indices or modeling of a pattern change to something more wintry or different than what we've seen all winter, are on the way. If we're hoping for seasonal conditions with highs in the upper 40s and low 50s, then sure I'm on board. But frozen precipitation and highs in the 30s? I don't see it. I will take highs in the upper 40s. Throw in moisture and timing and could see some winter weather threats...probably more so mountains/foothills. I will not take highs near 70. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted January 9, 2013 Share Posted January 9, 2013 Euro ensemble mean for next Sat. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted January 9, 2013 Share Posted January 9, 2013 Yup...12Z giveth...00Z taketh away....thus the folly of Day 10 operational model forecasting... Regarding the Euro, yesterday's 12Z gaveth, the 0Z tooketh away, and now today's 12Z giveth back. As modeled, it isn't far from a SE ZR 1/18-9. It is probably not quite there, however, due to a lack of sig. wedging until hour 240. Yesterday's 12Z Euro also suggested a pretty close call to a SE ZR 1/18-9. So, it did move up a day closer in forecast time by keeping it for 1/18-19 fwiw. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bevo Posted January 9, 2013 Share Posted January 9, 2013 I continue to see no indications from any indices or modeling of a pattern change to something more wintry or different than what we've seen all winter, are on the way. If we're hoping for seasonal conditions with highs in the upper 40s and low 50s, then sure I'm on board. But frozen precipitation and highs in the 30s? I don't see it. That's all I've ever asked of Winter. There will be a day or 3 that top out in the 30's - but just give me the season of Winter with it's seasonal temps and I'll go about gladly. I do agree though - I've seen the PAC effects on modeling enough to be certain that until that changes, things will likely remain the same. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted January 9, 2013 Author Share Posted January 9, 2013 Euro ensemble mean for next Sat. The ensemble mean really starts to look a lot better in the 168-192 range, through the end of the run. See, Brick? We're inside 10 days now. #192HoursOut Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bevo Posted January 9, 2013 Share Posted January 9, 2013 a shift in true magnetic north absolutely changes weather conditions across the globe... aside from any argument about the earth's tilt angle it should be humbling (yet, clearly isn't to a few members of this board) how very little we know about the earth, the earth's relationship with the sun, the earth's magnetosphere... and how a weakening magnetosphere (magnetic field) puts the earth in a more vulnerable position to the sun's ray I certainly wouldn't throw it out at this point as pure coincidence that China and Russia are frigid. I agree that we don't know enough to push it aside. I do however, need to know if I should start placing my magnets a little lower on the refrigerator to compensate. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DaculaWeather Posted January 9, 2013 Share Posted January 9, 2013 Keep in mind that the stratosphere has JUST done it's thing... and actually, still doing its thing. There will be a two to three week delay before changes will be seen at the surface. And yes, most indices are pointing toward cold. I've been following and doing some study on the SSW event. It's really pretty cool how all of that works. If you've been following the strat thread on main forum, it appears that the temperature is still rising at all levels. That can be seen here: http://www.daculaweather.com/4_strat_temp_time_series.php The polar night jet has reversed and all the winds from 1hPA down to 10hPA have done the same thing. This reversal will cause additional heating, and I believe that heating can be seen as a renewed upward trend at the 1-2hPA level. It appears that the polar vortex has indeed split at almost all levels. Basically what we watch now is to see how strong the heating will get. As Larry mentioned, we have a strong Major but we've seen stronger. Hopefully the renewed upward spike on the temperatures will continue. I have about 4-5 pages of stratospheric stuff if you're interested. http://www.daculaweather.com/4_stratosphere_temp.php - Temps and winds http://www.daculaweather.com/4_stratosphere_height.php - GFS heights http://www.daculaweather.com/4_strat_details.php - Zonal temp time series http://www.daculaweather.com/4_strat_temp_time_series.php - The link above http://www.daculaweather.com/4_strat_temp_time_series_archive.php - Archive of the link above previous years to 1979 http://www.daculaweather.com/4_stratosphere_temp_ecmwf.php - ECMWF temp and height Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ncwinterwxman Posted January 9, 2013 Share Posted January 9, 2013 Yes indeed...it has JUST peaked. Keep up the good work and thanks for posting. You have been doing an excellent job keeping up with everything. SSWEs are indeed a very interesting phenomenon and still need a lot more research but we have definitely made some progress in the past few years. Keep in mind that the stratosphere has JUST done it's thing... and actually, still doing its thing. There will be a two to three week delay before changes will be seen at the surface. And yes, most indices are pointing toward cold. I've been following and doing some study on the SSW event. It's really pretty cool how all of that works. If you've been following the strat thread on main forum, it appears that the temperature is still rising at all levels. That can be seen here: http://www.daculaweather.com/4_strat_temp_time_series.php The polar night jet has reversed and all the winds from 1hPA down to 10hPA have done the same thing. This reversal will cause additional heating, and I believe that heating can be seen as a renewed upward trend at the 1-2hPA level. It appears that the polar vortex has indeed split at almost all levels. Basically what we watch now is to see how strong the heating will get. As Larry mentioned, we have a strong Major but we've seen stronger. Hopefully the renewed upward spike on the temperatures will continue. I have about 4-5 pages of stratospheric stuff if you're interested. http://www.daculaweather.com/4_stratosphere_temp.php - Temps and winds http://www.daculaweather.com/4_stratosphere_height.php - GFS heights http://www.daculaweather.com/4_strat_details.php - Zonal temp time series http://www.daculaweather.com/4_strat_temp_time_series.php - The link above http://www.daculaweather.com/4_strat_temp_time_series_archive.php - Archive of the link above previous years to 1979 http://www.daculaweather.com/4_stratosphere_temp_ecmwf.php - ECMWF temp and height Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
metalicwx366 Posted January 9, 2013 Share Posted January 9, 2013 I will take highs in the upper 40s. Throw in moisture and timing and could see some winter weather threats...probably more so mountains/foothills. I will not take highs near 70. Since when could it snow with highs in the 40s? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bhamwx205 Posted January 9, 2013 Share Posted January 9, 2013 Since when could it snow with highs in the 40s? easy with an upper level low.....just sayin you asked Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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