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January Pattern and Storm Discussion


Cold Rain

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Have a feeling we are going to have a 2-3 week window ending in mid-Jan for normal to below temps. Otherwise, the CPC teleconnectors looked less than impressive, ensembles. NAO goes positive, as does the PNA, AO appears to attempt to go positive. This winter, in my opinion, will be a top 20 warm one here at KTRI. Looks to me like this is almost a relaxing of a warm - PNA pattern as compared to a cold pattern establishing itself. When we look back at this, it might become clear that the ENSO has driven the winter pattern.

Definitely agree, but I think we get this 10-14 day window to start Jan and hopefully another one in Feb.

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I'm definitely liking that the last three GFS runs have been centered on a weak, N GOM to ~Jacksonville track and consistently for 1/1-1/2. For N GA, this is about as optimal a track as can be had for the best shot at a sig. snow. So, to stay in the ballgame, I hope this continues. However, despite the pretty far south track, it isn't cold enough at 850 on two of the three runs. So, getting it cold enough might be a challenge. I'm sticking with a 25% chance for the bulk of N GA to get a significant wintry event (1"+ S/IP and/or 0.25"+ ZR) near 1/1-1/2. For 9-10 days out, those are pretty respectable odds.

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Lol not cold enough? Did you see the euro from last night?

Yes. However, I'm strictly talking about the last three GFS runs. The last two were clearly not cold enough. The Euro has nothing to do with this statement. Yes, the Euro is cold but it is much drier with only a weak disturbance in dry NW 500 mb flow. You can't get an eastward or ENEward classic wet Miller A moving along the northern GOM with cold/dry NW or WNW 500 mb flow. Optimally, you want WSW 500 mb flow (this is normally moist) such as what these GFS runs have. The trough axis needs to be a few hundred miles or so west of what the 0Z Euro portrays to pick up decent moisture. Granted, the 0Z Euro is beautiful if you're happy with dry cold, which is not a bad thing imo.

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Yes. However, I'm strictly talking about the last three GFS runs. The last two were clearly not cold enough. The Euro has nothing to do with this statement. Yes, the Euro is cold but it is much drier with only a weak disturbance in dry NW 500 mb flow. You can't get an eastward or ENEward classic wet Miller A moving along the northern GOM with cold/dry NW or WNW 500 mb flow. Optimally, you want WSW 500 mb flow such as what these GFS runs have.

I got ya.... Yeah the gfs mean last night warmed from the previous three days...

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Squashed is good news at this point. That's exactly what I want to see this far out. Exactly.

Yes, Lawdy! Keep that 0 line down in south Ga. and the moisture running across Fla. If I see either the 0 line down in Key West, or the low in Ga. I hid my eyes, lol. Even your mighty magic couldn't get me too worked up over another Xmas storm this quick, but a New Years storm I can believe in, even without Larry's 25%. It's just far more likely by a large percentage, as long as Goofy doesn't start showing an Apps runner, or a Miller B. I love suppressed, gives me better chances. And so often they come back, rather than disappear forever. T

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Looks like the PNA will go positive for the first time since Nov 1st. The NAO will go positive during the next week but then trend down from there, the AO will trend upward but not sure if it will go positive. So basically, I'm not sure if this is looking good or if we're in another situation where we can't get all the players to play at the same time.

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/daily_ao_index/teleconnections.shtml

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I just think the GFS is chewing over that appearence of a western ridge. Hasn't had to factor one of those in for a long while! Let's get that ridge, a split flow, and blocking , and happiness might reign, lol. And if it's 3 inches of cold rain, then the next one up might be the charm. Now we are entering winter's wheel house. And rain, if it has to be that, is always welcome, around here anyway :) T

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Yes, Lawdy! Keep that 0 line down in south Ga. and the moisture running across Fla. If I see either the 0 line down in Key West, or the low in Ga. I hid my eyes, lol. Even your mighty magic couldn't get me too worked up over another Xmas storm this quick, but a New Years storm I can believe in, even without Larry's 25%. It's just far more likely by a large percentage, as long as Goofy doesn't start showing an Apps runner, or a Miller B. I love suppressed, gives me better chances. And so often they come back, rather than disappear forever. T

Yup. Another thing that I've noticed in the last couple of years is that for some reason, the expectation is that we can spot a snowstorm 7-10 days in advance. I've lived in NC all my life and most of the winter events I remember were not forecast to be major events until a couple of days out. I expect that will likely be the case this year as well. But it's fun to watch for it. :)

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Dude - What? I cannot believe my eyes. And ColdRainStr8cashhomey? Bonus round.

Bevo, we're going to need some irish kilts from you to get a split flow to validate in January.

I agree with many that we would rather see cold and storm suppression as of now for early January rather than the other way around. It's funny to see how the GFS totally screws up after it loses resolution past 192. The 5H look does not support anything more than a dry front for the entire southeast. Yet, the GFS (for several runs) pulls "a JMA" and spews moisture everywhere like a painter wildly throwing paint on a canvas. Moisture shouldn't be at the surface with the look at 500mb as the sub-tropical energy is a good ways behind the colder energy diving southeast.

Still, this wealth of sub-tropical energy we have now through early January bares watching. May be germans, but these sub-tropical waves won't be analyzed or initialized correctly by upper-air soundings until we're 4-5 days away from a potential event. Just as "Cold Rain" stated so well, winter storms are far better handled if focus is paid to them in the medium range rather than getting tunnel vision past seven days. Winter setups are cool to follow a ways out, yet damn stressful if you buy into a specific outcome for your backyard. The real games begin once we're inside of a reasonable window (three days) and all upper-air energy and low-level warm/cold is within the CONUS.

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Yup. Another thing that I've noticed in the last couple of years is that for some reason, the expectation is that we can spot a snowstorm 7-10 days in advance. I've lived in NC all my life and most of the winter events I remember were not forecast to be major events until a couple of days out. I expect that will likely be the case this year as well. But it's fun to watch for it. :)

Lol, it's all about looking at the models and assessing what they are saying, but it's only for a hypothetical situation, a keyhole in time arranged for by manulation of ever changing criteria. It's a mirage, within a fantasy, inside the matrix, lol. Since I've been on the board I've only see a few winter storms modeled out aways that stayed and verified. Most are smoke that disappoint :) But I tell you what, the little sleet/snow lover that I was in the old days would have had much less crushingly disappointing winters, if I had these discos on unicorn dream storms to ease my angst. Filling those weeks of super cold, sunny skys when I had no idea what in the world what was happening. And back then I was sure my wishes could help the weather, like I'm sure I effect the Falcons when I pull for them, lol. but looking up at the sky and wishing for clouds is all I could do. Now I can look for a western ridge, a 50/50 block, and a gulf storm with cold rushing in as it comes up and even if someone I respect like Larry says 25% chance, I know reality is the 75% against. But, at least now I can disco, and will the positive to happen, when before all I could do is look up at the sun, on a bitter cold Jan day, and wish for clouds, lol. It gives a firm, more learned foundation to my irrationality :)

Meanwhile I continue to pound the rain aspect. Every storm that disappoints due to rain, is a step toward the brass ring. Tony

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Yeah, not sure why we look so far out at what the models say but we keep getting suckered back in, though. It always seems something good is 10 days away but it hardly ever happens. Most of the time the good stuff around here doesn't show up until 48 hours ahead of time, and sometimes that is even too soon. The record storm of 2000 should tell us anything is possible around here.

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Yeah, not sure why we look so far out at what the models say but we keep getting suckered back in, though. It always seems something good is 10 days away but it hardly ever happens. Most of the time the good stuff around here doesn't show up until 48 hours ahead of time, and sometimes that is even too soon. The record storm of 2000 should tell us anything is possible around here.

The key to this is don't get sucked in...You can look at what the models are showing at hr 240 or hr 300 but you have to tell yourself that it's not going to happen exactly how the model is showing. The problem comes about when some posters take the 300 hr gfs as the gospel then act all surprised when it doesn't happen as advertised. I know you've been around long enough to know this but felt it needed to be said for others to see... ;)

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I'd run with the ensemble means at this time range. The good news is that the means are indicating the best 50/50 vortex signature that we've seen this winter to date as we approach new years...that combined with a weak +PNA spike yields a better cold air supply and suppresses the storm track to the south. Then we'll have to see if we can get a shortwave to track into the southern plains.

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