January Pattern and Storm Discussion

[SnowNiner]

Definitely bringing moisture into it at 240....a nice looking southern winter storm developing on the 240hr...now can we just carry it forward....

 

The GFS seemed like it was close to a storm around that time frame as well, maybe a litter sooner though.  This may be a time frame to keep an eye on?  I've also heard some chatter about this time frame in the mid atlantic/philly boards.  

 

[Cold Rain]

^^^If that big 1040 HP sitting over the Lakes is real, then you'll get all the winter weather you can handle in the SE...of course, that's predicated on it being real and having a storm system in the area.

[ncwinterwxman]

Looks like a classic ICESTORM setup for many on the EURO...a 1040 mb High extending eastward out of the great lakes, a monster 50/50 low that has pushed eastward...with a dying southeast/Caribbean ridge feature in place over the SW Atlantic

I agree Brier, but that feature could easily change. If the NAO goes negative and the blocking retrogrades, along with the vortex dropping,  there WILL be a fight. 

 

The good things to see on the 12z Euro are ridging in the west, blocking in Greenland, vortex in southern/southeast Canada, and energy in the southern stream.  Let's just keep these features there for a few days and see how they evolve and just agree that many of the players are at least on the field.  I just hope the train is finally leaving the station............   destination southeast ......January 20th and beyond.

 

 

[tnweathernut]

Looks like a classic ICESTORM setup for many on the EURO...a 1040 mb High extending eastward out of the great lakes, a monster 50/50 low that has pushed eastward...with a dying southeast/Caribbean ridge feature in place over the SW Atlantic

 

I was just thinking that we may end up talking about ice may be more of a threat than snow.  It's certainly a possibility looking at the 12z Euro

[Cold Rain]

If the 240 Euro verifies, many SE folks will be happy. Strong Greenland Block/50-50 rex block, nice system building over the south, 1040 HP building in over the Plains....very good winter storm look. Very good.

But of course, it is still 10 days out.

[msuwx]

I think the 12z Euro would be a nice winter storm for the CAD areas. That is a monster high over the Great Lakes at 240, moving in great CAD position. The SFC low would likely track up the Apps, but again, for the CAD areas...would be a nice storm IMO.

 

Now, I feel like I need a shower after doing that much looking at a 240hr model prog!

[griteater]

Maybe this go around we will be blocking actual arctic air with the cold vortex in Canada and the budding -AO

[ncwinterwxman]

The biggest wildcard going into the extended period is the MJO...if we can get at least a slowly decaying low amplitude phase 7, that would likely be enough to get the job done for a couple of weeks (hopefully)...because we now know that a SSWE is underway...now if we can just get the MJO to cooperate.  I really think that this winter truly highlights just how rare it really is to get wintry weather in the SE...there are so many different pieces of the puzzle that must come together just right for things to work out...

[Met1985]

If yall have not checked it out yet there is some great discussion about the upcoming events on the main board.

[deltadog03]

My take today, is that the pattern has the "LOOK" of potential trouble days 8-14.  The pattern screams ICE for the CAD regions.  outside of that, I just don't see much.  The BULK of the cold is more than likely going to get shunted E and not really plunge down the plains and into the SE.  *as of now*

[SnowNiner]

I think the 12z Euro would be a nice winter storm for the CAD areas. That is a monster high over the Great Lakes at 240, moving in great CAD position. The SFC low would likely track up the Apps, but again, for the CAD areas...would be a nice storm IMO.

 

Now, I feel like I need a shower after doing that much looking at a 240hr model prog!

 

Great to see your posts Matt!

 

I don't know though, it feels different this time around.  With so many other indices pointing to another pattern regime starting around this time, it seems like there's a bit greater weight given to the long range.  Shift the storm track south and I think we may be looking at a nice threat somewhere in the SE.  I'd guess Tenessee as everything won't push east enough till after the 20th. 

[burgertime]

I think the 12z Euro would be a nice winter storm for the CAD areas. That is a monster high over the Great Lakes at 240, moving in great CAD position. The SFC low would likely track up the Apps, but again, for the CAD areas...would be a nice storm IMO.

 

Now, I feel like I need a shower after doing that much looking at a 240hr model prog!

 

Just admit it, you like to look 

 

Question though if the Euro has a bias of holding back energy wouldn't it just send the storm up the lakes before that high could get it self parked? 

[tnweathernut]

My take today, is that the pattern has the "LOOK" of potential trouble days 8-14.  The pattern screams ICE for the CAD regions.  outside of that, I just don't see much.  The BULK of the cold is more than likely going to get shunted E and not really plunge down the plains and into the SE.  *as of now*

 

Are you speaking for your area or for the entire southeast (including the mid-south)? I think it looks pretty good for the midsouth.  Just curious.

[griteater]

Today's CFS Weekly has +PNA/-AO/-NAO for week 3 (Jan 22-28)...cold, but dry. Week 4 (Jan 29-Feb4) is similar, with additional ridging into Alaska...still cold, not as dry.

[deltadog03]

Are you speaking for your area or for the entire southeast (including the mid-south)? I think it looks pretty good for the midsouth.  Just curious.

 

yes, mid-south looks good as well.

[GaWx]

 Today's 12Z Euro day 10 (**FWIW, which is mainly entertainment since the odds of something similar actually occurring near that time frame are small at best since it is 10 days out) has a major SE US CAD region ZR storm setting up for 1/18-9. Regardless of the odds being low that anything like that will occur about then, it is fun to analyze just in case and because it may be a sign of similar potential a littlle later. The parent high (1041 mb) is in SE Canada as opposed to the preferred NE US.

 

 A while back, I had looked at old wx maps to see if I could find any major KATL ZR's for which the parent high was centered way up in SE Canada as opposed to the more typical NE US.

 

 Here are the results:

 

 Although not the preferred setup for the wedging parent high center, I was still able to find a respectable SIX out of 29 KATL major ZR storms since 1879 (21%) that were associated with a parent high that was initially in SE Canada and pretty much remained in Canada for the entire event:

 

1) 2/4-6/1905: 1045 mb high 150 miles NE of Lake Superior (in Ontario) that moved little.

 

2) 2/7-8/1905: 1042 mb high 150 miles NE of Lake Superior (in Ontario) that moved little.

 

**Note that the above two occurred only one day apart and therefore resulted in a severe situation at KATL.

 

3) 12/28-29/1935: 1030 mb high 100 miles NE of Lake Superior (in Ontario) that moved slowly eastward to 75 miles N. of Ottawa (in SW Quebec).

 

 ** This one above was a very severe one with 2.13" liquid at KATL!

 

4) 12/24/1945: 1043 mb high pretty far north near 51 N, 82 W (in E. Ontario).

 

5) 1/9-10/1968: 1045 mb high 250 miles NE of Toronto (in SE Ontario) that first moved NW ~300 miles (still in Ontario) and then moved further NW to SW of Hudson Bay (in NW Ontario) and then moved back SE to 250 miles NE of Lake Superior (still in Ontario). This high seemed to be blocked by a strong, nearly stationary closed low near the 50-50 position. So, perhaps this is a good analog to consider since today’s 12Z Euro run shows a similar 50-50 low??

 

 ** This one above was one of the worst in NC/SC history as it produced 2-3" of ice and lasted up to one week in some of that area!! Worst power failure in Charlotte history (at least as of 1999).

 

6) 12/14-15/2005: 1040 mb high ~300 miles N. of Ottawa (in W. Quebec) that moved little.

 

CONCLUSION:

 All of the above tells me that it does look as though a surface high centered in SE Canada is, indeed, capable of wedging all of the way down into GA and produce MAJOR ZR in all of the major SE US CAD areas as far south as GA. It can happen as something similar has occurred at least six times since the late 1800's all of the way down to KATL (mainly from Ontario as opposed to Quebec parent highs) with an average strength of 1041 mb. Furthermore, these six included some of the worst ZR storms at KATL as well as one of the worst and longest lasting ever for NC/SC (lasted from 1/9 though 1/15/1968 there due largely to a very slow moving 50-50 closed low).

 

 

 

[franklin NCwx]

Euro ensemble mean has a very nice look.

[packbacker]

Just admit it, you like to look

Question though if the Euro has a bias of holding back energy wouldn't it just send the storm up the lakes before that high could get it self parked?

No, it would slide off the coast and would be a big snow bomb for CLT. Wait...you wouldn't be rooting for a miss since your in Cali would you?

[ColdRainsStr8cashhomey]

one thing that may be overlooked by many is the drastic temperature gradient between the vortex with it's iron fist look for eastern Canada and how much warm that to-be diminishing (let's hope) SE ridge has pumped north of it

 

if this temperature gradient holds as projected, and is realized, that may open up a Chernobyl-like scenario in terms of how intense any storm could get on the lower belly of an arctic sprawl with a decent injection of sub-trop energy... after all, intense storm setups aren't uncommon these days

 

even if this sort of temperature gradient powder-keg isn't realized and the projected -30s at 5000ft in eastern/central Canada verify as -20s, that's still solid and this will be a welcome change in addition to the plentiful ULL bowling balls showing up in the southern stream... we'll hope the SOI stays negative to neutral & if that puppy tanks, Chernobyl may be possible (of course, then we will all enjoy reading how convection in the GOM will rob us of moisture to the north, which is an argument that entirely overplayed and only used to stir the pot by most who choose to use it)

 

our warm, cozy spot in the southeast easily overlooks the type of cold that has been going on over in China and Russia... "China chills hit 28-year low, trapping ships in ice" - http://www.reuters.com/article/2013/01/05/china-weather-idUSL4N0AA0D820130105

 

if cross-polar flow is in play then things might get real anti-warm around here... I'm really pulling for middle and eastern TN after many-a-screw job since around 2004 when a ULL came across middle TN and laid the smack down

[Poimen]

I think the much anticipated change to a colder regime for our neck of the woods is coming to fruition. How long it will last is anyone's guess at this point but I think we get at least a two week window at the end of January/early February to produce some kind of wintry event...anything longer will be gravy.

 

 

[BrierCreekWx]

What ridge are you referring to?

My bad, I was looking at the 00z run by mistake. This only goes to show what a difference a 12 hour forecast can make at 240 hours out, and how silly it is to even look at model runs this far out. The 00z Euro had a monster southeast ridge and the PV way too far west, while the 12z Euro still did not depict anything more than marginal cold for the southeast with the PV shifted several hundred miles east and much less ridging.

 

I still see no definitive reason to be getting excited at this point. 

 

[ColdRainsStr8cashhomey]

I think the 12z Euro would be a nice winter storm for the CAD areas. That is a monster high over the Great Lakes at 240, moving in great CAD position. The SFC low would likely track up the Apps, but again, for the CAD areas...would be a nice storm IMO.

 

Now, I feel like I need a shower after doing that much looking at a 240hr model prog!

 

  well done East

[Stovepipe]

 

if cross-polar flow is in play then things might get real anti-warm around here... I'm really pulling for middle and eastern TN after many-a-screw job since around 2004 when a ULL came across middle TN and laid the smack down

 

I like the cut of your jib and would like to subscribe to your newsletter. 

[dsaur]

CONCLUSION:

 All of the above tells me that it does look as though a surface high centered in SE Canada is, indeed, capable of wedging all of the way down into GA and produce MAJOR ZR in all of the major SE US CAD areas as far south as GA. It can happen as something similar has occurred at least six times since the late 1800's all of the way down to KATL (mainly from Ontario as opposed to Quebec parent highs) with an average strength of 1041 mb. Furthermore, these six included some of the worst ZR storms at KATL as well as one of the worst and longest lasting ever for NC/SC (lasted from 1/9 though 1/15/1968 there due largely to a very slow moving 50-50 closed low).

 

Thanks for that....not    Why couldn't it be among the worst sleet storms in Ga., lol.  And one of my worst nightmare fears is back to back 73's, and now you've shown such a days apart event is imminently possible....though no way you could two 3+ inchers back to back.  The gulf wouldn't be open that much...would it? Now way you could get back to back huge gom lows, with waa fighting cold reinforcing...Canada pulled it off with huge zr for a week....but not us     Oh, well, I've been feeling ice storm all season, so I won't be the least bit surprised to see one this year.  Thanks as usual for your climo stats, scary as they are this time   Just hoping that high is real, but moves into a great ip location!! Tony

[msuwx]

Great to see your posts Matt!

 

I don't know though, it feels different this time around.  With so many other indices pointing to another pattern regime starting around this time, it seems like there's a bit greater weight given to the long range.  Shift the storm track south and I think we may be looking at a nice threat somewhere in the SE.  I'd guess Tenessee as everything won't push east enough till after the 20th. 

 

Sure thing!

 

Just admit it, you like to look 

 

Question though if the Euro has a bias of holding back energy wouldn't it just send the storm up the lakes before that high could get it self parked? 

 

Sure I do....haha. If it doesn't hold energy back, you get a scenario similar to the GFS. But who knows anything about specifics...you could see the 12z GFS ALMOST cut off the tail end of that trough as well. But any specifics, as always, will depend on hard-to-forecast vort interactions. 

 

  well done East

 

Hahaha.....glad you liked that Wood....

[Cold Rain]

My bad, I was looking at the 00z run by mistake. This only goes to show what a difference a 12 hour forecast can make at 240 hours out, and how silly it is to even look at model runs this far out. The 00z Euro had a monster southeast ridge and the PV way too far west, while the 12z Euro still did not depict anything more than marginal cold for the southeast with the PV shifted several hundred miles east and much less ridging.

I still see no definitive reason to be getting excited at this point.

I agree...caution is always warranted when expecting winter to arrive these days, but there seem to be some pretty decent signals aligning for it. I wouldn't yet worry too much about the MJO plots. I'll bet they start to show it making it at least solidly into phase 7 within the next couple of days.

[griteater]

It's probably more cautious optimism rather than excitement.  There are met posters that are not buying the loopty-loop of the MJO signal, and think that it will progress into phase 7-8...also, there's the ongoing major strat warming and budding -AO on the ensembles...buy yeah, any tangible cold/winter storms are in la la land. 

 

 

I still see no definitive reason to be getting excited at this point. 

 

 

[GaWx]

 Even if the MJO weren't to progress into 7 and 8, I don't think that means we can't get cold. (I'm not saying others are saying this.) I think of it as more of a guide than anything. I'm sure there have been numerous exceptions where it got cold without the MJO in 7/8/1 incuding being within the circle. Of course, being in 7/8/1 would up the odds of cold over being in other stages.

 

 I use my climo stats as tools/guides (helps me establish odds), but not as absolute determiners of what will definitely occur.

[ncwinterwxman]

Yea...I like that...cautious optimism...if you look at the mean ensemble spread for many of the international models, they are showing the MJO getting to at least a modest phase 7...we'll see...who cares about the -AO?  What we really need is a +PNA and if we can indeed get the tropical forcing, I think we'll get that ridge on the WC

It's probably more cautious optimism rather than excitement.  There are met posters that are not buying the loopty-loop of the MJO signal, and think that it will progress into phase 7-8...also, there's the ongoing major strat warming and budding -AO on the ensembles...buy yeah, any tangible cold/winter storms are in la la land. 

 

 

[BrierCreekWx]

I agree...caution is always warranted when expecting winter to arrive these days, but there seem to be some pretty decent signals aligning for it. I wouldn't yet worry too much about the MJO plots. I'll bet they start to show it making it at least solidly into phase 7 within the next couple of days.

I really don't see any reason to believe this, but I hope you're right. I mean, the ensembles are very consistent with each other, for once. Barely getting into phase 7 and then dying probably won't have much of an impact on the pattern either. Studies have shown there is at least a week or more of lag on average between reaching phase 7 and the NAO actually going negative.