January Pattern and Storm Discussion

[Bevo]

Oh it will, don't worry.  Just give it about 10 days.

 

Well on then CR - you better be right.  Those "shots" to the a** the Doc keeps giving me are getting old and extremely sore.  I think he's just doing it for laughs at this point.

[BullCityWx]

The last report of snow at KCLT was February 10th, 2011. It's almost been 2 years.

[DCMetroWinston]

I might have missed it somehow, but what would it take to kill that Caribbean ridge?

[burgertime]

GFS and Euro bring the cold a little sooner but it's more just a cold front and then it goes back to seasonal...not bad, ENS control run also has a couple of shots of wintry weather in the LR even with the seasonal look. One shot even gets close to SAV. 

[SnowNiner]

Found this in the main board.  It's from the Buffalo office but gives a great overview of the pattern change coming up.  Patience is a virtue, they say right? 

 

000FXUS61 KBUF 080253AFDBUFAREA FORECAST DISCUSSIONNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY953 PM EST MON JAN 7 2013

 

THE SECOND PATTERN CHANGE WILL BEGIN TO SHOW ITS CARDS BY THE MIDDLEOF THE MONTH. A MAJOR SUDDEN STRATOSPHERIC WARMING EVENT IS UNDERWAYAND NEARING COMPLETION. SUDDEN STRATOSPHERIC WARMING EVENTS AREFAVORED TO OCCUR DURING AN EASTERLY PHASE OF THE QUASI-BIENNIALOSCILLATION /QBO/...WHICH IS THE PHASE THE STRATOSPHERE IS IN THISWINTER. THE SUDDEN STRATOSPHERIC WARMING CAUSES A DRAMATICWEAKENING...AND SOMETIMES ENTIRE BREAKDOWN OF THE STRATOSPHERICPOLAR VORTEX...AND A GREAT WEAKENING OR EVEN REVERSAL OF THESTRATOSPHERIC POLAR NIGHT JET. THE GFS FORECASTS THIS TO OCCUR OVERTHE NEXT WEEK AT THE 2MB LEVEL.THE RESULT OF ALL OF THIS IS THE GENERATION OF STRONG HIGH LATITUDEBLOCKING AS THE DRAMATIC CHANGES IN THE STRATOSPHERE FEED DOWN INTOTHE TROPOSPHERE. HIGH LATITUDE BLOCKING FORCES THE COLDEST AIR SOUTHOUT OF THE HIGH ARCTIC AND TOWARDS THE MID LATITUDES...AND ALSOFAVORS LASTING STRONGLY NEGATIVE EPISODES OF ARCTIC OSCILLATION /AO/AND NORTH ATLANTIC OSCILLATION /NAO/. THIS TYPICALLY BEGINS TO TAKEPLACE 10-15 DAYS AFTER THE SUDDEN STRATOSPHERIC WARMING EVENT. HOWLONG IT LASTS CAN VARY...BUT TYPICALLY THE COLD PATTERN LASTS FOR ATLEAST A FEW WEEKS...AND OCCASIONALLY CAN PERSIST THROUGH THE REST OFWINTER.AS ALL OF THIS IS OCCURRING...THE MJO IS FORECAST BY THE GEFSENSEMBLES TO WEAKEN AND FADE AWAY IN ABOUT 10 DAYS. THE PACIFICNORTH AMERICAN PATTERN /PNA/ IS FORECAST TO REMAIN NEGATIVE OVER THENEXT 10 DAYS...WHICH WILL DIRECT THE FIRST BATCHES OF COLD INTO THEWESTERN AND EVENTUALLY CENTRAL UNITED STATES. GEFS ENSEMBLE MEMBERSSUPPORT A TREND TOWARDS A NEUTRAL OR POSITIVE PNA BY THE MIDDLE OFTHE MONTH...WHICH SHOULD ALLOW THE GROWING COLD TO SPREAD EASTWARD.WHAT ALL OF THIS TECHNICAL JARGON MEANS IS THAT THERE IS MODERATE TOHIGH CONFIDENCE IN A PATTERN CHANGE TOWARDS MUCH COLDER WEATHER FORTHE CENTRAL AND EASTERN UNITED STATES STARTING AROUND THE MIDDLE OFJANUARY...WITH COLD LIKELY PEAKING IN LATE JANUARY INTO EARLYFEBRUARY. THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR THE COLDEST AIR WE HAVE SEEN INAT LEAST SEVERAL YEARS DURING THIS PERIOD. WHAT SNOW POTENTIAL THISWILL BRING IS MUCH MORE UNCERTAIN DUE TO UNKNOWN DETAILS WITHSYNOPTIC STORM TRACK AND LAKE EFFECT POTENTIAL.

[nchighcountrywx]

Good discussion.

 

Out challenge is all this can occur and we still could be protected from that majority of the cold outbreak by the ongoing ridge that has been protecting the NC area.    We simply have to get it relocated to enable us to benefit from lower latitude intrustions of cold as a result of the stratospheric warming event.

 

So far, the EMCWF is hinting at a storm track that could put the winter snow precip event into western Tennessee this time.    We will still need to get the pattern to cooperate and move further East and South.

 

 

 

Found this in the main board.  It's from the Buffalo office but gives a great overview of the pattern change coming up.  Patience is a virtue, they say right? 

 

000FXUS61 KBUF 080253AFDBUFAREA FORECAST DISCUSSIONNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY953 PM EST MON JAN 7 2013

 

THE SECOND PATTERN CHANGE WILL BEGIN TO SHOW ITS CARDS BY THE MIDDLEOF THE MONTH. A MAJOR SUDDEN STRATOSPHERIC WARMING EVENT IS UNDERWAYAND NEARING COMPLETION. SUDDEN STRATOSPHERIC WARMING EVENTS AREFAVORED TO OCCUR DURING AN EASTERLY PHASE OF THE QUASI-BIENNIALOSCILLATION /QBO/...WHICH IS THE PHASE THE STRATOSPHERE IS IN THISWINTER. THE SUDDEN STRATOSPHERIC WARMING CAUSES A DRAMATICWEAKENING...AND SOMETIMES ENTIRE BREAKDOWN OF THE STRATOSPHERICPOLAR VORTEX...AND A GREAT WEAKENING OR EVEN REVERSAL OF THESTRATOSPHERIC POLAR NIGHT JET. THE GFS FORECASTS THIS TO OCCUR OVERTHE NEXT WEEK AT THE 2MB LEVEL.THE RESULT OF ALL OF THIS IS THE GENERATION OF STRONG HIGH LATITUDEBLOCKING AS THE DRAMATIC CHANGES IN THE STRATOSPHERE FEED DOWN INTOTHE TROPOSPHERE. HIGH LATITUDE BLOCKING FORCES THE COLDEST AIR SOUTHOUT OF THE HIGH ARCTIC AND TOWARDS THE MID LATITUDES...AND ALSOFAVORS LASTING STRONGLY NEGATIVE EPISODES OF ARCTIC OSCILLATION /AO/AND NORTH ATLANTIC OSCILLATION /NAO/. THIS TYPICALLY BEGINS TO TAKEPLACE 10-15 DAYS AFTER THE SUDDEN STRATOSPHERIC WARMING EVENT. HOWLONG IT LASTS CAN VARY...BUT TYPICALLY THE COLD PATTERN LASTS FOR ATLEAST A FEW WEEKS...AND OCCASIONALLY CAN PERSIST THROUGH THE REST OFWINTER.AS ALL OF THIS IS OCCURRING...THE MJO IS FORECAST BY THE GEFSENSEMBLES TO WEAKEN AND FADE AWAY IN ABOUT 10 DAYS. THE PACIFICNORTH AMERICAN PATTERN /PNA/ IS FORECAST TO REMAIN NEGATIVE OVER THENEXT 10 DAYS...WHICH WILL DIRECT THE FIRST BATCHES OF COLD INTO THEWESTERN AND EVENTUALLY CENTRAL UNITED STATES. GEFS ENSEMBLE MEMBERSSUPPORT A TREND TOWARDS A NEUTRAL OR POSITIVE PNA BY THE MIDDLE OFTHE MONTH...WHICH SHOULD ALLOW THE GROWING COLD TO SPREAD EASTWARD.WHAT ALL OF THIS TECHNICAL JARGON MEANS IS THAT THERE IS MODERATE TOHIGH CONFIDENCE IN A PATTERN CHANGE TOWARDS MUCH COLDER WEATHER FORTHE CENTRAL AND EASTERN UNITED STATES STARTING AROUND THE MIDDLE OFJANUARY...WITH COLD LIKELY PEAKING IN LATE JANUARY INTO EARLYFEBRUARY. THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR THE COLDEST AIR WE HAVE SEEN INAT LEAST SEVERAL YEARS DURING THIS PERIOD. WHAT SNOW POTENTIAL THISWILL BRING IS MUCH MORE UNCERTAIN DUE TO UNKNOWN DETAILS WITHSYNOPTIC STORM TRACK AND LAKE EFFECT POTENTIAL.

 

 

[MillerA]

glancing blow or will it hold.

http://wxbrad.com/coldest-air-of-the-winter-on-the-way-next-week/

[franklin NCwx]

Huge blocking signal showing up on the GEFS. If the gfs ensembles are correct, we are in for a lot of fun starting next weekend.

[Mr Bob]

glancing blow or will it hold.

http://wxbrad.com/coldest-air-of-the-winter-on-the-way-next-week/

 

January 85....    Why does everyone always go to the extreme.....

[BullCityWx]

January 85.... Why does everyone always go to the extreme.....

You'd think getting engaged would have you in rose colored glasses.

Congrats, by the way.

[packbacker]

January 85....    Why does everyone always go to the extreme.....

 

He did say "I don’t think we will see anything like 1985".....

[Mr Bob]

You'd think getting engaged would have you in rose colored glasses.

Congrats, by the way.

 

Thanks, Jeremy!

 

Whether or not he says it is like that, it is the example he uses....there have been plenty of Arctic discharges into the SE that are more reasonable to assume instead of the all-time record for these parts...

[BristowWx]

Huge blocking signal showing up on the GEFS. If the gfs ensembles are correct, we are in for a lot of fun starting next weekend.

That squeeze in the high latitudes should send some bitter air southward...pattern looks really blocky after that...maybe this will be ok...maybe...I would like to see this 5 days from now on models to get excited

[CLTwx]

No access to snow accumulation maps. But I'm at 30,000 feet flying PHL->PHX and the last hour or so the ground has been completely white. Now if we can just get some cold air. (Yeah I know this next week is going to chew every bit of Midwest snow)

[Cold Rain]

12Z GFS looks cold, starting around 228. PV sets up in East/Central Canada and we get west coast ridging along with some good blocking, eventually. No fantasy storms, though. The run ends with a run of the mill 1064 HP dropping SE, just north of AK.

I'm sure it will look exactly like this next time. Good run overall.

[wxbrad]

Congrats Mr. Bob as well! Thanks for linking back guys. I don't think it will be anything like 1985 as stated in my blog post. I use that example not because of the extremity of the event but for the reversal factor. When bringing up cold air this winter most viewers, (ie non-Mets) the public is going to think your crazy unless you demonstrate past experiences of the reversal. So while it's easy to focus on the outbreak my only intention was to demonstrate how a warm December can mean absolutely nothing for the rest of the winter. Plus remember my blog is read by laymen and Mets alike I have to make it usefully to both. 

[BristowWx]

12Z GFS looks cold, starting around 228. PV sets up in East/Central Canada and we get west coast ridging along with some good blocking, eventually. No fantasy storms, though. The run ends with a run of the mill 1064 HP dropping SE, just north of AK.

I'm sure it will look exactly like this next time. Good run overall.

Give it an hour and the usual "Euro says what arctic air" will be posted by someone

[Mr Bob]

Congrats Mr. Bob as well! Thanks for linking back guys. I don't think it will be anything like 1985 as stated in my blog post. I use that example not because of the extremity of the event but for the reversal factor. When bringing up cold air this winter most viewers, (ie non-Mets) the public is going to think your crazy unless you demonstrate past experiences of the reversal. So while it's easy to focus on the outbreak my only intention was to demonstrate how a warm December can mean absolutely nothing for the rest of the winter. Plus remember my blog is read by laymen and Mets alike I have to make it usefully to both. 

 

Thanks! and I see your point...It is a common thing around here though...everything is either, Jan 2000, Mar 1993 etc etc...I suppose we don't have enough examples, so they get wore out a little!

[Cold Rain]

^ For some reason, I can't quote on Blackberry today. I think it'll throw us a bone today. It's sucked for a few runs now, so it's getting about time to hit us up with a couple of good ones.

[strongwxnc]

Thanks for taking the time to post on here brad !

Congrats Mr. Bob as well! Thanks for linking back guys. I don't think it will be anything like 1985 as stated in my blog post. I use that example not because of the extremity of the event but for the reversal factor. When bringing up cold air this winter most viewers, (ie non-Mets) the public is going to think your crazy unless you demonstrate past experiences of the reversal. So while it's easy to focus on the outbreak my only intention was to demonstrate how a warm December can mean absolutely nothing for the rest of the winter. Plus remember my blog is read by laymen and Mets alike I have to make it usefully to both.

[tnweathernut]

The model runs of the last few days are at least getting the colder air close enough to give chances and give us looks that could yield fruit for someone in the southeast.  I really don't want it too cold, b/c if that's the case where we get an arctic blast we won't have any precip to give us opportunities.  I do wonder how the models will evolve as we get closer to the 20th of this month.

 

As it relates to referencing extreme events..............................The average person wants to know what possibilities are out there and get irritated when mets and other professionals don't acknowledge it (i.e. a storm showing on the Euro within 7 days,but not the GFS and the weather station running with the GFS and not even mentioning the possibility of snow). 

 

Mets and other professionals get irritated with amatures and weenies when looking at long range maps and talking about the possibilities when they would rather stay cautious.  It's a delicate balancing act and our forum is usually really good at keeping that balance.

[burgertime]

Thanks as well Brad. 12z Euro is bringing some monster cold into Canada...pretty large chunks of -40 around north central Canada. 

[BristowWx]

Thanks as well Brad. 12z Euro is bringing some monster cold into Canada...pretty large chunks of -40 around north central Canada. 

monster cold...that has a nice ring to it...but where does it go? Perhaps we could use that SE ridge to keep a storm track of some kind or that cold will surpress everything way south

[packbacker]

Cold incoming on Euro....

 

[burgertime]

monster cold...that has a nice ring to it...but where does it go? Perhaps we could use that SE ridge to keep a storm track of some kind or that cold will surpress everything way south

 

It's finally starting to make a press into the SE in the last frames with a big storm brewing in TX....of course it's probably doing it's typical thing of holding that energy back out west so major grain of salt with it. 

[Mr Bob]

Definitely bringing moisture into it at 240....a nice looking southern winter storm developing on the 240hr...now can we just carry it forward....

[Southern Track]

The GFS and Euro keep showing a pretty solid West Coast ridge, which is nice to see.

[BrierCreekWx]

Definitely bringing moisture into it at 240....a nice looking southern winter storm developing on the 240hr...now can we just carry it forward....

Nice winter storm...for VA on northward at best. As long as that ridge is there like that, NC on south is going to struggle to get cold enough for any sustained frozen precip.

[ncwinterwxman]

What ridge are you referring to?

Nice winter storm...for VA on northward at best. As long as that ridge is there like that, NC on south is going to struggle to get cold enough for any sustained frozen precip.

 

 

[tnweathernut]

I agree Brier, but that feature could easily change. If the NAO goes negative and the blocking retrogrades, along with the vortex dropping,  there WILL be a fight. 

 

The good things to see on the 12z Euro are ridging in the west, blocking in Greenland, vortex in southern/southeast Canada, and energy in the southern stream.  Let's just keep these features there for a few days and see how they evolve and just agree that many of the players are at least on the field.  I just hope the train is finally leaving the station............   destination southeast ......January 20th and beyond.