burgertime Posted January 6, 2013 Share Posted January 6, 2013 So, I don't know how to view the CFS. In Nov, it nailed the Dec warmth, but ever since then, it's been penalized a hundred yards for falsely starting on the cold. Does it have a cold bias like the GFS? Considering how warm it was for most of the country last year I would think no. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted January 6, 2013 Share Posted January 6, 2013 So far this year, the PNA has won that battle going away. But there are apparently analogues that say we do ok with a -NAO/-PNA combo. I guess we'll see. I was reading in another forum that you need strong -AO and -NAO combo to overcome that much of a neg PNA...further north not as much....it all about the pig ridge and where it ends up Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted January 6, 2013 Share Posted January 6, 2013 So, I don't know how to view the CFS. In Nov, it nailed the Dec warmth, but ever since then, it's been penalized a hundred yards for falsely starting on the cold. Does it have a cold bias like the GFS? It's by no means perfect but its been fairly good. You can check out the verifications for it and its verified well. I still hope the weeklies are good tomorrow afternoon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted January 6, 2013 Author Share Posted January 6, 2013 Thanks for the responses, guys. This is my first year really paying much attention to the CFS, so I'm still trying to learn how to interpret it. One more dumb question: We talk about the CFS and the CFSv2. Are they the same? Or is the CFS the first iteration and it's eventually going to be replaced by the V2? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted January 6, 2013 Share Posted January 6, 2013 18z in the LR is just beautiful. It shows what potential is there. I think Larry has the right of it though, we probably won't get into the good action until at least the 20th. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted January 6, 2013 Share Posted January 6, 2013 18z in the LR is just beautiful. It shows what potential is there. I think Larry has the right of it though, we probably won't get into the good action until at least the 20th.the 20th is when the fun starts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted January 6, 2013 Share Posted January 6, 2013 18z in the LR is just beautiful. It shows what potential is there. I think Larry has the right of it though, we probably won't get into the good action until at least the 20th. Its like a conveyor belt of bitter cold in the 300hr and beyond....much different than the last run...very nice Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted January 6, 2013 Share Posted January 6, 2013 18z GFS has -40F 2M temps on day 10 in central Canada. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted January 6, 2013 Share Posted January 6, 2013 Thanks for the responses, guys. This is my first year really paying much attention to the CFS, so I'm still trying to learn how to interpret it. One more dumb question: We talk about the CFS and the CFSv2. Are they the same? Or is the CFS the first iteration and it's eventually going to be replaced by the V2? The initial version of the CFS was retired back in October...so, whenever someone talks about the CFS, it's CFSv2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WilkesboroDude Posted January 6, 2013 Share Posted January 6, 2013 GFS ensembles trending toward a -AO later this month...possibly because of the stratospheric warming? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted January 6, 2013 Author Share Posted January 6, 2013 The initial version of the CFS was retired back in October...so, whenever someone talks about the CFS, it's CFSv2 Awesome! Thanks. I thought that might be the case, but I wasn't 100% sure. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HKY18 Posted January 7, 2013 Share Posted January 7, 2013 I've been doing a little bit of research today on winter's in the past with similar temperature progression as well as similar teleconnections 79-80 looks like a decent match so far. ENSO DJFM avg: 0.45 PDO DJFM avg: 0.47 NAO DJFM avg: -0.71 AO DJFM avg: -0.785 I haven't done very much research, the mjo progression looks like it will be different. The PDO monthly values start at slightly negative during December and January, then made a huge change to positive for Feb. and March. Haven't looked at any 500mb maps or anything, so this may be a terrible match. Interestingly this is one of the winters that had a 3 month period (actually the AO stayed negative well into spring) of strongly negative AO starting in Jan. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IWC Posted January 7, 2013 Share Posted January 7, 2013 GFS ensembles trending toward a -AO later this month...possibly because of the stratospheric warming? Maybe we should stat a thread. What do you think J Burns ?? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jburns Posted January 7, 2013 Share Posted January 7, 2013 Maybe we should stat a thread. What do you think J Burns ?? GFS trending later this month discuss here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Poimen Posted January 7, 2013 Share Posted January 7, 2013 Keeping the faith for cold after mid month Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nchighcountrywx Posted January 7, 2013 Share Posted January 7, 2013 Ouch Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
metalicwx366 Posted January 7, 2013 Share Posted January 7, 2013 Ouch The exact opposite on the other half of the country. Wild image there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted January 7, 2013 Share Posted January 7, 2013 Here is what the models showed last night in the LR. GFS now flipped to looking really good. -NAO, -AO, and a +PNA. Euro still looks blah with everything negative. The Euro did have a descent CAD storm at 228 in la la land though the big high was sitting around VA/PA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted January 7, 2013 Share Posted January 7, 2013 Also just to note, this is actually the look the Euro showed for one or two runs before it fell to what the GFS was showing....which seems to be a trend these days. I doubt the GFS holds on to this look but I've noticed the GFS has sniffed out storms and patterns a lot better than the Euro has when you get out past say 100 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherlover Posted January 7, 2013 Share Posted January 7, 2013 Latest cfsv2 really brings in the cold air after the 20th...thats 3 out of the last 4 runs showing the cold air coming in that time frame...also it continues to advertise below normal temps and above normal precip for the month of February Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
POWERSTROKE Posted January 7, 2013 Share Posted January 7, 2013 Most agree changes begin after 20th but that doesnt mean on that day we will get snow. I think our chances will be there but not getting excited or down with every model run. We still in good shape. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eyewall Posted January 7, 2013 Share Posted January 7, 2013 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tacoma Posted January 7, 2013 Share Posted January 7, 2013 Ouch the models are just as bad out that far on a heat wave as they are a huge snowstorm. it will never be that warm at that time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FallsLake Posted January 7, 2013 Share Posted January 7, 2013 The PNA has been trending more and more positive the last few days. I would still say it looks neutral in the long range. Question is what does a neutral PNA, a negative NAO, and a negative AO produce? **I have an amateur understanding of the NAO, PNA, and AO. How does the SE ridge get tracted/reported? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowNiner Posted January 7, 2013 Share Posted January 7, 2013 the models are just as bad out that far on a heat wave as they are a huge snowstorm. it will never be that warm at that time. To me that looks about right....10 degrees over normal right? That would put us in the upper 60s to 70, which is what's forecasted in the 5-10. I think the CFS is rightly a torch for that time. We've just got nothing going on for 2 more weeks. The question about what's next after the 20th is the big unknown. I think the NAO and AO are going to be in our favor for a while. If we can get that neutral PNA to positive for a tick or two we could be in for a fun week or so. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tacoma Posted January 7, 2013 Share Posted January 7, 2013 yes and lets get that southeast ridge out of the way. that sucker has worn out its welcome. we need a strong cold front to push it a little further away. plus we all know it doesn't have to be that cold to snow, it needs to be just cold enough which isn't freezing cold. I've seen some of our biggest snowstorms at 34 degrees on the surface. its upstairs where the temp counts more than the surface. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted January 7, 2013 Share Posted January 7, 2013 yes and lets get that southeast ridge out of the way. that sucker has worn out its welcome. we need a strong cold front to push it a little further away. The SE ridge is a huge thorn, very nina like, we are going to need the -AO/-NAO to be super suppressive otherwise we are going to be on the wrong side of storms. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jon Posted January 7, 2013 Share Posted January 7, 2013 The PNA has been trending more and more positive the last few days. I would still say it looks neutral in the long range. Question is what does a neutral PNA, a negative NAO, and a negative AO produce? **I have an amateur understanding of the NAO, PNA, and AO. How does the SE ridge get tracted/reported? neutral PNA, -NAO, -AO would produce a decent pattern for us...depending on how strongly negative those features are, it might just overwhelm the neutral PNA and get rid of that pesky pacific that many believe has been getting in our way so far....so neutral is good, IMO, anything other than +PNA. If this works out there would be no SE ridge but a nice trough conducive of storms. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tacoma Posted January 7, 2013 Share Posted January 7, 2013 I have a good feeling from say Jan. 20 on til maybe thru March. I'm hoping and praying for some fun and games from that time on. we've put up with a no action winter long enough. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted January 7, 2013 Share Posted January 7, 2013 I've been predicting an above normal January for KATL since I analyzed the Jan.'s following the 14 warm Decembers because almost all of the non-El Nino Jan.'s verified to be above normal (2+) and several were even well above normal (5+). I'd say that forecast is looking real good right now. My confidence is now up to about 80-90%. Why? For the period 1/1-1/21, incorporating actual MTD as well as the 15 day forecast, KATL should be in the general vicinity of a cumulative 135 degrees above normal. That would mean that assuming a pretty accurate 15 day forecast, the last 10 days of Jan. would need to average a whopping ~7 degrees below normal just to get January down to near 2 degrees above normal for the entire month. Even if we finally get some decent winter wx then, January would still likely verify warmer than two above normal since 1/1-21 will very likely be so much warmer than normal as a whole. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.