January Pattern and Storm Discussion

[FallsLake]

The AO is looking very negative is a couple of weeks, the NAO is also looking negative, and the PNA is looking neutral with a trend of the last few days of maybe going positive (...+PNA could be wish casting).

 

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/daily_ao_index/teleconnections.shtml

[NCSNOW]

Euro and gfs ensembles bring the nao into very negative territory along with the epo. The ao is tanking as well fun times ahead folks.

Been watching this and another noteworthy thing is the difference the GFS Op compared to it's ensembles and espeacilly the GFS op v/s Euro op and Euro ensembles. Talk about a huge gap. The GFS Op appears to be in la la land. Notice how negative the euro op is, almost off charts.

http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/00zlinegraphs.html

[jburns]

JB said this morning that a -NAO with the upcoming pattern would likely mean more snow for Atlanta than Atlantic City as the storms will stay suppressed into our part of the country and not be able to travel up to the NE. 

 

Now that's what I would call a perfect winter.

[BullCityWx]

Euro is showing highs in the 70's across most of NC/SC next Saturday.

 

Also, the Euro Ensemble Control images on Accuwx show nothing more than seasonal cold through Day 15. 850's never get colder than -5 across 95% of NC.

[BullCityWx]

Also, the 0z Canadian was warm straight through hour 240.

[burgertime]

Euro is showing highs in the 70's across most of NC/SC next Saturday.

 

Also, the Euro Ensemble Control images on Accuwx show nothing more than seasonal cold through Day 15. 850's never get colder than -5 across 95% of NC.

 

Looked like timing was right out in fantasy land of it. Having seasonal temps and a chance of good timing I can handle. Not sure exactly where we were this time last year but seems like just seasonal is a step in the right direction. 

[Brick Tamland]

So, not talk this winter of the rubber band snapping back after a warm up and going from one extreme to another..

[BullCityWx]

Looked like timing was right out in fantasy land of it. Having seasonal temps and a chance of good timing I can handle. Not sure exactly where we were this time last year but seems like just seasonal is a step in the right direction. 

 

We thought it was going to get cold this time last year too(mods, please note the map is a year old):

 

[packbacker]

So, not talk this winter of the rubber band snapping back after a warm up and going from one extreme to another..

 

Yes, we will get the snap to cold and in a 2-3 weeks we are going to missing the warm temperatures we are going to experience starting on Wednesday.  Although the SE ridge could be our monkey wrench, or atleast someone's....

 

[BullCityWx]

Also of note is Charlotte's record high for next Saturday which is 75. The all time January record is 79. If you have a full sunshine day, you've got a shot at breaking two records.

[packbacker]

We thought it was going to get cold this time last year too(mods, please note the map is a year old):

 

 

Yeah, but besides the useless EPS control the weeklies the CFS all showed warmth, wall to wall last year.  You know it's bad in here when I am the "positive" one 

 

[burgertime]

We thought it was going to get cold this time last year too(mods, please note the map is a year old):

 

 

Yea I was just looking back at the thread for this time last year. GFS had a major winter storm for N. GA upstate SC and NC that turned into flurries for the mountains.  

[packbacker]

Yea I was just looking back at the thread for this time last year. GFS had a major winter storm for N. GA upstate SC and NC that turned into flurries for the mountains.  

 

At what hour?  Inside 5 days?

[burgertime]

12z Euro did not look good in the LR. Cold temps never quite make it in the SE out to 240. 

[BullCityWx]

Warm.

 

[burgertime]

At what hour?  Inside 5 days?

 

Oh it was a 5 day storm. Had it on the 9th and it ended up coming on the 13th/14th. It was pretty similar to this last storm folks followed. GFS on an island with the Canadian teasing for one run or so.

[GaWx]

JB said this morning that a -NAO with the upcoming pattern would likely mean more snow for Atlanta than Atlantic City as the storms will stay suppressed into our part of the country and not be able to travel up to the NE. This is all contigent on whether the SE ridge is forced south into Florida or instead of being destroyed and moved to Cuba or further south/east. As always, it is a delicate balancing act for our part of the world in order to get snow but if the indices line up the way they appear to be doing, it could get fun around her in the 20-45 day period

For the period 1900-60 (only period available for snow at Atlantic City Marina station), Atlantic city averaged 4.2" of snow/year vs. KATL's 1.7". However, KATL did have more snow during 19 of those 61 years fwiw (about 1 every three on avg.). So, it isn't nearly as rare as some might guess.

Edit: 122 Euro suggests what I've been feeling/saying. which is based on the warm Dec. analogs: any chance for sustained or severe cold for the SE US must wait at least until 1/20 and that Jan. would likely verify as a warm month overall.

[Cold Rain]

Warm.

You know it's bad when the -NAO can't help us. This winter is going to turn out to be a very nice case study on how a -PNA can ruin winter.

[jmundie]

I'm sure the euro isn't holding back energy over the southwest at 240...... 

 

if the euro doesn't dump that piece of energy into the southwest, its a near mirror image of the gfs at 240.

 

That being said - I think you carolina folks are going to have to wait a bit longer. That southeast ridge is brutal. But being in the mid south, I'll take it. We need some southeast ridge, otherwise ya'll get hammered and we're just cold and dry.

[Marion_NC_WX]

So, not talk this winter of the rubber band snapping back after a warm up and going from one extreme to another..

 

It will snap in March-April...when its too late for everyone.

[packbacker]

I'm sure the euro isn't holding back energy over the southwest at 240...... 

 

if the euro doesn't dump that piece of energy into the southwest, its a near mirror image of the gfs at 240.

 

That being said - I think you carolina folks are going to have to wait a bit longer. That southeast ridge is brutal. But being in the mid south, I'll take it. We need some southeast ridge, otherwise ya'll get hammered and we're just cold and dry.

 

HAH, I was thinking of that, you guys like the SE ridge, it's your friend....

[GaWx]

"It will snap in March-April...when its too late for everyone."

 

 

 It wouldn't likely be too late if it were to snap in early to middle March. The 14 warm Dec. analogs all suggest winter will, indeed, snap to wintry sometime between ~1/20 and early to middle March. Three of the 14 did wait til early or middle March (1890, 1932, and 1993) and March was quite interesting to say the least for all three. It would get quite exciting in here then and the BB would be quite busy almost guaranteed...especially after such a long and frustratingly uneventful Dec.-February.

 Anyway, winter is coming per all analogs. The question is will it be early (say, late Jan.-early Feb.) or late (late Feb.- mid March)? Regardless, these same analogs say a wam Jan, overall, is likely.

[BNAwx]

Warm.

 

Yeah, looking at that map and it makes me think that it's just the Euro being the Euro..holding energy back too much in the SW. Decent ridging in the west, good -nao look, some troughing east of Hawaii. That trough in the middle of the country should be a little further east.

[Marion_NC_WX]

"It will snap in March-April...when its too late for everyone."

 

 

 It wouldn't likely be too late if it were to snap in early to middle March. The 14 warm Dec. analogs all suggest winter will, indeed, snap to wintry sometime between ~1/20 and early to middle March. Three of the 14 did wait til early or middle March (1890, 1932, and 1993) and March was quite interesting to say the least for all three. It would get quite exciting in here then and the BB would be quite busy almost guaranteed...especially after such a long and frustratingly uneventful Dec.-February.

 Anyway, winter is coming per all analogs. The question is will it be early (say, late Jan.-early Feb.) or late (late Feb.- mid March)? Regardless, these same analogs say a wam Jan, overall, is likely.

 

 

Yeah...I guess you can never rule out early March especially in my location. 1993 is the ultimate extreme analog without a doubt.

 

But I would rather see us switch over late Jan or early Feb. I hope you are correct either way.

[burgertime]

EPS control run was a little better this afternoon in the LR. It had 850's a bit colder but it overall looked seasonal for the SE after the warmup. 

[packbacker]

The 12z Euro has RDU hitting mid 70's next weekend and it has several days with lows not going below 50, impressive warmth. The weatherbell 45 day CFS model has very impressive cold for the SE the last 10 days of Jan (-8 to -9) temp departures.

[burgertime]

Hmmm... this probably has something to do with this afternoons run of the Euro. It's going to be a battle of the NAO and PNA. 

[Cold Rain]

Hmmm... this probably has something to do with this afternoons run of the Euro. It's going to be a battle of the NAO and PNA.

So far this year, the PNA has won that battle going away. But there are apparently analogues that say we do ok with a -NAO/-PNA combo. I guess we'll see.

[Cold Rain]

The 12z Euro has RDU hitting mid 70's next weekend and it has several days with lows not going below 50, impressive warmth. The weatherbell 45 day CFS model has very impressive cold for the SE the last 10 days of Jan (-8 to -9) temp departures.

So, I don't know how to view the CFS. In Nov, it nailed the Dec warmth, but ever since then, it's been penalized a hundred yards for falsely starting on the cold.

Does it have a cold bias like the GFS?

[Southern Track]

So, I don't know how to view the CFS. In Nov, it nailed the Dec warmth, but ever since then, it's been penalized a hundred yards for falsely starting on the cold.

Does it have a cold bias like the GFS?

I don't think it does, but somebody could chime in if I'm incorrect .