CAD_Wedge_NC Posted January 5, 2013 Share Posted January 5, 2013 The block showing up on the euro is a very sig' development. It aligns well with the LR CFS and should put us in the icebox b/n the 15th-20th and on. It's the best looking altantic setup in 2 years. Pacific doesn't look too bad either. However, I would like to see that Pacific ridge a little closer to the coast....and we still have to get rid of that darn SE ridge. What do the surface maps look like at that range? Judging from the kink in the contours, it looks like a storm is cutting through the Plains/ Miss valley towards the lakes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jon Posted January 5, 2013 Share Posted January 5, 2013 The block showing up on the euro is a very sig' development. It aligns well with the LR CFS and should put us in the icebox b/n the 15th-20th and on. It's the best looking altantic setup in 2 years. Yeah, -NAO literally goes off the charts compared to the 00z run. FWIW. 2013010512z ECMWF RUN NAO Values NAO value for forecast hour 000: 40.5497398 NAO value for forecast hour 024: 21.9255066 NAO value for forecast hour 048: -33.5249557 NAO value for forecast hour 072: 24.7031956 NAO value for forecast hour 096: 29.9869804 NAO value for forecast hour 120: -28.1050034 NAO value for forecast hour 144: -162.886566 NAO value for forecast hour 168: -300.93634 NAO value for forecast hour 192: -453.889404 NAO value for forecast hour 216: -562.362183 NAO value for forecast hour 240: -522.622314 NAO value for Day 1-5: 2.99714518 NAO value for Day 6-10: -400.539368 2013010500z ECMWF RUN NAO Values NAO value for forecast hour 000: 9.52441025 NAO value for forecast hour 024: 23.3469429 NAO value for forecast hour 048: -19.2078667 NAO value for forecast hour 072: -18.7761974 NAO value for forecast hour 096: 39.7331505 NAO value for forecast hour 120: 39.2879791 NAO value for forecast hour 144: -60.3383217 NAO value for forecast hour 168: -151.496048 NAO value for forecast hour 192: -201.868408 NAO value for forecast hour 216: -198.763092 NAO value for forecast hour 240: -190.56839 NAO value for Day 1-5: 12.8768024 NAO value for Day 6-10: -160.606842 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ncwinterwxman Posted January 5, 2013 Share Posted January 5, 2013 STRONGLY AGREE...the ridge is still hanging on in the eastern US and the placement of the longwave trough across eastern Siberia does NOT favor a ridge sliding toward the western US...instead it favors a retrograding ridge back towards the central Pacific...this is a good pattern if you live in Madison, WI...however, that is not to say that if we were to extend this run further out in time that a better looking pattern would emerge for the SE but this 10 day run posted here is NOT a favorable pattern for the SE See below: Pacific doesn't look too bad either. However, I would like to see that Pacific ridge a little closer to the coast....and we still have to get rid of that darn SE ridge. What do the surface maps look like at that range? Judging from the kink in the contours, it looks like a storm is cutting through the Plains/ Miss valley towards the lakes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted January 5, 2013 Author Share Posted January 5, 2013 STRONGLY AGREE...the ridge is still hanging on in the eastern US and the placement of the longwave trough across eastern Siberia does NOT favor a ridge sliding toward the western US...instead it favors a retrograding ridge back towards the central Pacific...this is a good pattern if you live in Madison, WI...however, that is not to say that if we were to extend this run further out in time that a better looking pattern would emerge for the SE but this 10 day run posted here is NOT a favorable pattern for the SE Yeah, that map won't put us in the freezer, but hopefully as you said, farther out in time that epac ridge will slide east and kick the lazy SE ridge out of bed. But I will say with the cold air nearby and the presence of strong blocking and a 50/50 low, we'll have to be alert for CAD and a potential ice storm before the storm track becomes more suppressed...IF it does become more suppressed. With the MJO progged to move around the horn, we *should* get a more favorable Pacific...again, IF the progs are right. Hopefully, we'll be able to make the PV and the really cold air feel welcomed on our side of the world for an extended period of time and get a winter after all. We still have some work to do though... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ncwinterwxman Posted January 5, 2013 Share Posted January 5, 2013 I'm more bullish than I have been all winter that the pattern will flip to a more favorable winter pattern for the SE for a 2-4 week window as we head into the last week of January into February now that the MJO *LOOKS* like it will cooperate...** keep your fingers crossed ** Maybe we can squeeze something out of this winter after all... Yeah, that map won't put us in the freezer, but hopefully as you said, farther out in time that epac ridge will slide east and kick the SE ridge out of bed.But I will say with the cold air nearby and the presence of strong blocking and a 50/50 low, we'll have to be alert for CAD and a potential ice storm before the storm track becomes more suppressed...IF it does become more suppressed.With the MJO progged to move around the horn, we *should* get a more favorable Pacific...again, IF the progs are right. Hopefully, we'll be able to make the PV and the really cold air feel welcomed on our side of the world for an extended period of time and get a winter after all. We still have some work to do though... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted January 5, 2013 Author Share Posted January 5, 2013 I'm more bullish than I have been all winter that the pattern will flip to a more favorable winter pattern for the SE for a 2-4 week window as we head into the last week of January into February now that the MJO *LOOKS* like it will cooperate...** keep your fingers crossed ** Maybe we can squeeze something out of this winter after all... I agree. I'm glad the MJO seems to be waking up and seemingly going to head into a decent phase with amplitude. I seem to remember last year if it was outside the COD, it was usually in the bad phases. That may not be correct, but for some reason, that's what I am remembering. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LithiaWx Posted January 5, 2013 Share Posted January 5, 2013 As long as we keep seeing a pacific trof we aren't going to get the pattern people want. Sure there are some other factors that are in our favor but the pac continues to dominate and until we break that pattern winter will be fleeting to nonexistant in the se. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ColdRainsStr8cashhomey Posted January 5, 2013 Share Posted January 5, 2013 so much for that "torch" many were spending a lot of time moaning about for this upcoming week... southwesterly mid-level flow clashing with an easterly /NE-erly low-level flow will produce a cloudy sky for most GA, SC and NC areas Tuesday PM through Friday (possibly even Saturday) of next week as two systems produce more rain in these areas... SOI has recently turned back negative... the massive warm up shown on models has been delayed (as has been the case recently)... maybe some areas can have solid croquet weather (60s) by the 12th/13th or so still, southeast ridge looks like a tough customer through mid-month meaning for the short term that we'll just sit and stare at the cold in Canada with thoughts of what could have been... just curious, are some members of this board still hoping for a shift in the "uprights" and good field position for a long field goal attempt or are we going to move beyond that into a more positive mentality and offensive posture in hopes of hitting the deep post for 6 in late January or February? bottom line is there's still a lot of winter to go and the -SOI + better looking PNA (at times) offers some optimism Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bevo Posted January 5, 2013 Share Posted January 5, 2013 so much for that "torch" many were spending a lot of time moaning about for this upcoming week... southwesterly mid-level flow clashing with an easerly /NE-erly low-level flow will produce a cloudy sky for most GA, SC and NC areas Tuesday PM through Friday (possibly even Saturday) of next week as two systems produce more rain in these areas... SOI has recently turned back negative... the massive warm up shown on models has been delayed (as has been the case recently)... maybe some areas can have solid croquet weather (60s) by the 12th/13th or so still, southeast ridge looks like a tough customer through mid-month meaning for the short term that we'll just sit and stare at the cold in Canada with thoughts of what could have been... just curious, are some members of this board still hoping for a shift in the "uprights" and good field position for a long field goal attempt or are we going to move beyond that into a more positive mentality and offensive posture in hopes of hitting the deep post for 6 in late January or February? bottom line is there's still a lot of winter to go and the -SOI + better looking PNA (at times) offers some optimism I'm betting that my experience with the "warm" winter so far has been due to being constantly wedged in. I'm at work right now, so I haven't eyed a single weather related piece of information today - but based on your post, I can only presume that I will be wedged in for this next "warm up" as well. It's good to be the beneficiary for a change. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Marion_NC_WX Posted January 5, 2013 Share Posted January 5, 2013 just curious, are some members of this board still hoping for a shift in the "uprights" and good field position for a long field goal attempt or are we going to move beyond that into a more positive mentality and offensive posture in hopes of hitting the deep post for 6 in late January or February? bottom line is there's still a lot of winter to go and the -SOI + better looking PNA (at times) offers some optimism I personally have taken a knee and went to the locker room in regards to anything between now and prob the 20th. There's nothing that looks like "hail mary" potential. I'm only down one score and am looking for a strong 2nd half (post Jan 20th)... Gotta love all the football metaphors in regards to the current weather pattern. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jburns Posted January 5, 2013 Share Posted January 5, 2013 I personally have taken a knee and went to the locker room in regards to anything between now and prob the 20th. There's nothing that looks like "hail mary" potential. I'm only down one score and am looking for a strong 2nd half (post Jan 20th)... Gotta love all the football metaphors in regards to the current weather pattern. Yeah. I hate that so I punted. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
deltadog03 Posted January 5, 2013 Share Posted January 5, 2013 It certainly looks like the torch, well hell, let's define a torch. What everybody says that were supposed to see a torch, is that mean really get into the 70s, 80s? I mean if we are saying a torch is in the 50s maybe 60s, that really isn't a torch in my opinion. As it's been said before, the wedge will keep temperatures in check with More of an easterly fetch of moisture. The pattern does look really good later down the road, however I'm not sure that we will be able to capitalize on it especially if the ridges there in the Southeast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WilkesboroDude Posted January 5, 2013 Share Posted January 5, 2013 NWS Blacksburg Long term /Wednesday through Saturday/... as of 332 PM EST Saturday... Winter is invisible for the long term and also probably through even day 10. The only cooler episodes will be due to easterly flow and wedging high pressure. Continued to follow mostly the European model (ecmwf) with its better timing of precipitation middle and late week...while the GFS seems to be playing catch up. Can't totally rule out precipitation on Wednesday but think it would be reserved to the extreme SW and S if any at all. Now even the 12z European model (ecmwf) is keeping most rain west of the Blue Ridge on Thursday with more of a storm track through the Ohio Valley. Subtle cold front arrives on Friday with that day perhaps featuring more of a widespread wetting across the County Warning Area. With the more western European model (ecmwf) track...easterly flow/wedge would be stronger and there's big bust potential for temperatures Friday if an in situ wedge is in place ahead of the front. Otherwise...its looking balmy to say the least. Looking into the end of January...there are several indications that a much colder pattern will arrive with large positive 500 mb anomalies over Greenland and the Canadian rockies. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CaryWx Posted January 5, 2013 Share Posted January 5, 2013 I have to agree with delta. Cary is projected well into the 60s for several days late next week. That's a "torch" for January folks! Please don't spin it any other way. Now if that SE ridge can dissolve post Jan 15th then there may be a decent winter ahead here in the Triangle. Sorry for the IMBY post. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCSNOW Posted January 6, 2013 Share Posted January 6, 2013 so much for that "torch" many were spending a lot of time moaning about for this upcoming week... southwesterly mid-level flow clashing with an easterly /NE-erly low-level flow will produce a cloudy sky for most GA, SC and NC areas Tuesday PM through Friday (possibly even Saturday) of next week as two systems produce more rain in these areas... SOI has recently turned back negative... the massive warm up shown on models has been delayed (as has been the case recently)... maybe some areas can have solid croquet weather (60s) by the 12th/13th or so still, southeast ridge looks like a tough customer through mid-month meaning for the short term that we'll just sit and stare at the cold in Canada with thoughts of what could have been... just curious, are some members of this board still hoping for a shift in the "uprights" and good field position for a long field goal attempt or are we going to move beyond that into a more positive mentality and offensive posture in hopes of hitting the deep post for 6 in late January or February? bottom line is there's still a lot of winter to go and the -SOI + better looking PNA (at times) offers some optimism I'm with you. I posted how I felt Greensboro airport PTI will end up -2 for January when all is said and done. The warmup next week is in big jepordady of being able to do it;s dirty work for my area with CAD and insutu damming very likely. Heck I'm below normal for the month so far. I still like the idea of a lakes cutter going through 13-14th and beating the SE ridge down enough for NC to see normal below normal 850;s for the second half of January, with a higher than normal possibility to get a 3 or so day stretch of significant departure from normal temp wise during the last 10 days of the month. I still think GA/SC or the far southern and eastern(coastal plain) posters on here will not bennefit from the CAD this week and see Torch on the horizon. If you look at departures from Normal for the month of January next weekend on the 13th you will probably see close to normal for Greensboro, maybe RDU but Columbia, and perhaps eastern TN,GA you will most likely see a posotive departure of several degrees. I also still beleive for the triad a much greater risk exist for a ICEY winter storm the second half of January as oppossed to a pure snow event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted January 6, 2013 Share Posted January 6, 2013 I have to agree with delta. Cary is projected well into the 60s for several days late next week. That's a "torch" for January folks! Please don't spin it any other way. Now if that SE ridge can dissolve post Jan 15th then there may be a decent winter ahead here in the Triangle. Sorry for the IMBY post. Much like the GFS cold though it seems like with every run both models are backing off the "torch". Just a few days ago it showed almost all of NC in the 70's. At this rate by next week temps will probably max out around 60. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HKY_WX Posted January 6, 2013 Share Posted January 6, 2013 Pacific doesn't look too bad either. However, I would like to see that Pacific ridge a little closer to the coast....and we still have to get rid of that darn SE ridge. What do the surface maps look like at that range? Judging from the kink in the contours, it looks like a storm is cutting through the Plains/ Miss valley towards the lakes. The ensembles showing a strong cold front coming through around day 11 ish. From there it reloads pretty routinely. I like the look. I think the last 10 days of January are setting up to be the coldest period in 2 years. Snow is obviously always reliant on more than that, but it will be interesting. All signs are pointing to this IMO. I hope to make another extended forecast like I did in early Dec, which worked out quite well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted January 6, 2013 Share Posted January 6, 2013 NOAA PDO reading for December came in at -1.23 PDO has been negative for 34 straight months per the NOAA data. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dsaur Posted January 6, 2013 Share Posted January 6, 2013 so much for that "torch" many were spending a lot of time moaning about for this upcoming week... southwesterly mid-level flow clashing with an easterly /NE-erly low-level flow will produce a cloudy sky for most GA, SC and NC areas Tuesday PM through Friday (possibly even Saturday) of next week as two systems produce more rain in these areas... SOI has recently turned back negative... the massive warm up shown on models has been delayed (as has been the case recently)... maybe some areas can have solid croquet weather (60s) by the 12th/13th or so still, southeast ridge looks like a tough customer through mid-month meaning for the short term that we'll just sit and stare at the cold in Canada with thoughts of what could have been... just curious, are some members of this board still hoping for a shift in the "uprights" and good field position for a long field goal attempt or are we going to move beyond that into a more positive mentality and offensive posture in hopes of hitting the deep post for 6 in late January or February? bottom line is there's still a lot of winter to go and the -SOI + better looking PNA (at times) offers some optimism We always held our Croquet Club tourney on the coldest day of the winter we could pull. Always a round robbin. A war of attrition. Once we had it in Hilton Head, at Port Royal, at night, when it was 21 headed down to 19 by the last match. Sea breezes gusting around 30, lol. The Southern Regionals are always in July. One year, in Hilton Head again, it was 113 in the shade by the court. So championship croquet is a game of weather extremes, when the big boys and girls play, lol. And we like it. We croquet pro's are tough, no matter the weather the game must go on. Only whiny little babies forfeit, lol. Lightening...ha, we laugh! Well, a lot draw the line there, but not all I have never given up on winter until April, and never will, unless we start getting snow in June if the haline shuts down. Sure maybe this winter could be a relative torch, but that just means the other end of the pendulum swing will be spectacular, lol. Next winter or the one after. I'd trade 3 winters for one with 2 one foot sleet storms, and never look back. That is one of the beauties of weather, it likes extremes. And anyway, as Larry pointed out recently to us Georgians, last winter we had at least one night in the teens. So it always gets cold in winter. We just have to wait Tony Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted January 6, 2013 Share Posted January 6, 2013 The overnight run of the op euro agreed with yesteedays 12z on tanking the nao. The euro enaembles are bullish on this as well. On phone so no maps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted January 6, 2013 Share Posted January 6, 2013 Euro and gfs ensembles bring the nao into very negative territory along with the epo. The ao is tanking as well fun times ahead folks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted January 6, 2013 Share Posted January 6, 2013 Euro and gfs ensembles bring the nao into very negative territory along with the epo. The ao is tanking as well fun times ahead folks. Thanks...I enjoy reading your posts as you are always optimistic and well informed. How did the PNA look on the ensembles....that has been killing us with the pig ridge not moving...even neutral would be ok Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted January 6, 2013 Share Posted January 6, 2013 Thanks...I enjoy reading your posts as you are always optimistic and well informed. How did the PNA look on the ensembles....that has been killing us with the pig ridge not moving...even neutral would be okstays negative hopefully we can get a spike here or there. Im still very excited about the pattern from the 18th +/- a couple days on forward Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted January 6, 2013 Author Share Posted January 6, 2013 Euro and gfs ensembles bring the nao into very negative territory along with the epo. The ao is tanking as well fun times ahead folks. It is a great example of how you can have a strong -NAO and still not be all that cold in the SE, but the fact that the -NAO is starting to show up regularly is definitely a good sign. Hopefully, the Pacific can cooperate at some point and help get rid of the SE ridge as it is holding on strong this year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted January 6, 2013 Share Posted January 6, 2013 It is a great example of how you can have a strong -NAO and still not be all that cold in the SE, but the fact that the -NAO is starting to show up regularly is definitely a good sign. Hopefully, the Pacific can cooperate at some point and help get rid of the SE ridge as it is holding on strong this year. In the right spot it could help us at least in the upper part of the area....it needs to be beat down but not killed. I was looking at JB free video on twitter...not for the hype just for analysis commentary. If those two ridges hook up in in the arctic it could be fun and the ridge could be helpful. It would be a shame to have the everything get so negative with the pos PNA the pattern becomes suppressed to cold and dry. I could see NC being the battleground but what do I know...not much. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted January 6, 2013 Share Posted January 6, 2013 Just look at the diff. between the Euro and GFS at 240. On the Euro I made a little red line to represent the 0c line if folks had a hard time following it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted January 6, 2013 Share Posted January 6, 2013 Also of good notes is the ENS last night. On the control run at 300 it had a big NC snow storm (that won't happen but it shows the potential is there). As Brandon said it should be a fun next couple of weeks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted January 6, 2013 Share Posted January 6, 2013 Just look at the diff. between the Euro and GFS at 240. On the Euro I made a little red line to represent the 0c line if folks had a hard time following it. Yeah, the OP Euro run was showing classic strong -NAO, split flow pattern in the west, the ensemble doesn't agree though. Hopefully the OP is leading the way and the ensembles start moving towards this :-) Op Euro... Ens Euro Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted January 6, 2013 Author Share Posted January 6, 2013 In the right spot it could help us at least in the upper part of the area....it needs to be beat down but not killed. I was looking at JB free video on twitter...not for the hype just for analysis commentary. If those two ridges hook up in in the arctic it could be fun and the ridge could be helpful. It would be a shame to have the everything get so negative with the pos PNA the pattern becomes suppressed to cold and dry. I could see NC being the battleground but what do I know...not much. Yeah, with everything lining up, you would potentially run the risk of cold and dry. Hopefully, as was said above, the Euro will lead the Ens, because it looked pretty good at D10. I'm optimistic about the end of the month. Would love the Euro Weeklies to confirm tomorrow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MichaelJ Posted January 6, 2013 Share Posted January 6, 2013 JB said this morning that a -NAO with the upcoming pattern would likely mean more snow for Atlanta than Atlantic City as the storms will stay suppressed into our part of the country and not be able to travel up to the NE. This is all contigent on whether the SE ridge is forced south into Florida or instead of being destroyed and moved to Cuba or further south/east. As always, it is a delicate balancing act for our part of the world in order to get snow but if the indices line up the way they appear to be doing, it could get fun around her in the 20-45 day period Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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