packbacker Posted January 4, 2013 Share Posted January 4, 2013 We have a recipe to get rid of the SE ridge, it will be interesting to see if that can get pushed out of the way for cold/precip for the SE for the end of January.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bhamwx205 Posted January 4, 2013 Share Posted January 4, 2013 We have a recipe to get rid of the SE ridge, it will be interesting to see if that can get pushed out of the way for cold/precip for the SE for the end of January.... Where is that image from Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted January 4, 2013 Share Posted January 4, 2013 Where is that image from Euro ENS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dsaur Posted January 4, 2013 Share Posted January 4, 2013 Need to do something about that pesky SE ridge, or we'll spend the winter dancing around the edges with only marginal fun looking at marginal events And, Bob, you are the Man!! Tony Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pcbjr Posted January 4, 2013 Share Posted January 4, 2013 Need to do something about that pesky SE ridge, or we'll spend the winter dancing around the edges with only marginal fun looking at marginal events DT has some interesting thoughts on the SE Ridge: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tacoma Posted January 4, 2013 Share Posted January 4, 2013 cold here today, like 39 for high but the sun felt good. I guess we have to go another 10 days to get into our pattern change so I guess I'll sit back and wait and hopefully starting in 10 days, well let's say, Let The Games Begin. Like I said yesterday I have a feeling for the period Jan. 20-23 and beyond Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HKY_WX Posted January 4, 2013 Share Posted January 4, 2013 AO rise was short lived as expected. I expect January and February to average at or below normal. May be going out on a limb, but statistically I think it's very possible. With the AO dropping again and the extended CFS having been pretty decent this winter, I think we'll see a few days above normal next week, but I believe around the 15th we'll see a pattern change. Hopefully this will prove to last through the rest of winter and some of our snow chances will have better timing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ncwinterwxman Posted January 4, 2013 Share Posted January 4, 2013 AO rise was short lived as expected. I expect January and February to average at or below normal. May be going out on a limb, but statistically I think it's very possible. With the AO dropping again and the extended CFS having been pretty decent this winter, I think we'll see a few days above normal next week, but I believe around the 15th we'll see a pattern change. Hopefully this will prove to last through the rest of winter and some of our snow chances will have better timing. You may want to correct the bolded. The CFS WAS doing good until it screwed up January's forecast...there is going to have to be some SERIOUS cold for most of the US to end up below normal as the CFS had indicated as soon as 10 days ago...however it did verify very well for December... see post #40 in this thread Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wncsnow Posted January 5, 2013 Share Posted January 5, 2013 00Z GFS still has the strong damming high in the NE, and temps in CAD regions wont be near 60 if that occurs... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MADDOGG Posted January 5, 2013 Share Posted January 5, 2013 Maybe winter can finally arrive later this month... eh we will see. http://www.accuweather.com/en/weather-news/nasty-cold-waves-could-be-in-t/3586088 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Marion_NC_WX Posted January 5, 2013 Share Posted January 5, 2013 0z GFS in the long range...Big ridge sitting over Florida and Eastern GOM preventing any plunge of arctic air Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tazaroo Posted January 5, 2013 Share Posted January 5, 2013 0z GFS in the long range...Big ridge sitting over Florida and Eastern GOM preventing any plunge of arctic air If the Cold Highs come down after 200hrs as shown, I think it will squash the SE ridge for the most part. For what its worth and without looking at soundings GFS is still showing a big ice storm in the CAD regions with those big 1040 highs in the NE and moisture coming in 200hrs + even with it showing a SE ridge. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted January 5, 2013 Share Posted January 5, 2013 I continue to think that the highlights of winter will wait at least until ~1/20. So, I wouldn't worry about the GFS toying with us with its cold that keeps getting delayed. Consider this: The winter highlights (cold/wintry precip. there or nearby) at KATL for the 14 warm Dec. analogs were during these dates (major winter storms underlined there or nearby): 1/5, 1/6, 1/17, 1/22, 1/23-4, 1/27, 1/30, 1/30-2/1, 2/6-7, 2/9, 2/12, 2/15, 2/17, 2/18, 2/19, 2/22, 2/23, 2/24, 2/26, 2/27, 3/2, 3/6, 3/6-7, 3/9, 3/10, 3/11-2, 3/13, 3/13, 3/14, 3/14, 3/16, 3/20, 4/3Look at how incredibly backended were these 14 winters as a whole! Only 1/5 and 1/6, just 2 of the 33 noted dates, are even very closeby. I do feel that there is a nontrivial risk for a major ZR in the favored CAD areas during the period 1/20-2/10. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FallsLake Posted January 5, 2013 Share Posted January 5, 2013 Man this place is dead. The GFS long range is not showing much. There is cold but it is not as cold from two days back and it looks to keep pushing back the arrival. BUT, there are some very big differences occuring right now. The NAO is now looking to go negative in the next week or so, The AO will also go back negative (from slight positice). The PNA is looking to go negative but not as strong as a couple days back. So, this may be the case where the longe range GFS is too warm. It will have to play catch-up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted January 5, 2013 Author Share Posted January 5, 2013 Man this place is dead. The GFS long range is not showing much. There is cold but it is not as cold from two days back and it looks to keep pushing back the arrival. BUT, there are some very big differences occuring right now. The NAO is now looking to go negative in the next week or so, The AO will also go back negative (from slight positice). The PNA is looking to go negative but not as strong as a couple days back. So, this may be the case where the longe range GFS is too warm. It will have to play catch-up. It continues to show a very nice -NAO block forming and retrograding through Canada. If the PNA will cooperate, we'll get a very cold air mass into the SE, squashing the ridge. The ridge axis looks a little west of where we'd like it. Either way, given the magnitude of the cold in the vicinity and if the models are correct in developing the -NAO, we should start to see a legitimate period for winter storms as we move toward the end of the month. I agree with Larry and Brandon are correct wrt the timing and potential. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted January 5, 2013 Share Posted January 5, 2013 Man this place is dead. The GFS long range is not showing much. There is cold but it is not as cold from two days back and it looks to keep pushing back the arrival. BUT, there are some very big differences occuring right now. The NAO is now looking to go negative in the next week or so, The AO will also go back negative (from slight positice). The PNA is looking to go negative but not as strong as a couple days back. So, this may be the case where the longe range GFS is too warm. It will have to play catch-up. Next week starting around Tuesday through the weekend looks great! We should hit 70's a couple of days with lows in the 50's. We will have a few +20 days. The CFS is still adamant about cold coming with a vengeance! If you look back at the CFS week 3/4 from Dec 22nd it's verifying fairly well for the upcoming 2 weeks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WNCwx Posted January 5, 2013 Share Posted January 5, 2013 Maybe things will heat up again in a couple of weeks. You know it's bad when the local weather guys are on Twitter, Facebook and G+ talking about the winter weather in Wisconsin and New England. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAD_Wedge_NC Posted January 5, 2013 Share Posted January 5, 2013 Man this place is dead. The GFS long range is not showing much. There is cold but it is not as cold from two days back and it looks to keep pushing back the arrival. BUT, there are some very big differences occuring right now. The NAO is now looking to go negative in the next week or so, The AO will also go back negative (from slight positice). The PNA is looking to go negative but not as strong as a couple days back. So, this may be the case where the longe range GFS is too warm. It will have to play catch-up. I too believe this will be the case. I expect the GFS to make some radical adjustments to the long range today or tonight. The AO/NAO predictions look much more negative this morning compared to the last few days. Needless to say it could get very interesting in the coming weeks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Southern Track Posted January 5, 2013 Share Posted January 5, 2013 I too believe this will be the case. I expect the GFS to make some radical adjustments to the long range today or tonight. The AO/NAO predictions look much more negative this morning compared to the last few days. Needless to say it could get very interesting in the coming weeks. Yeah, was checking out the teleconnections this morning. The AO and NAO look to have committed to going in the tank, while the PNA goes to more a neutral, negative phase. Click on the links to the left to see the forecasts. http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/ENSO/verf/new.teleconnections.shtml Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tnweathernut Posted January 5, 2013 Share Posted January 5, 2013 I am, and have been "bullish" for a couple of days now that the last 1/3 of January and at least the first two weeks of February will provide plenty of cold and opportunities for snow and/or ice. It would be nice to see a "classic" period of winter weather invade the southeast. It's good to see a lot more mets starting to toot that whistle too. I know for them it HAS to be hard to step back out on that limb with all the false starts and overdone (on the models) cold so far this winter. I appreciate all the red taggers and what they bring to our board. There really is a consistent and growing consensus in the modeling that fun and games are just around the corner, and should arrive with great timing. Imagine how disappointed we would be if this were mid February! Here is to hoping the 12z runs increase our optimism. Enjoy the next week or two. Winter is coming back after an almost two year vacation. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted January 5, 2013 Author Share Posted January 5, 2013 If we keep a -PNA, we may keep the SE ridge too (that's my one red flag wrt the upcoming pattern change to colder weather later), so the GFS in fact may not be too warm. We'll have to see how it all plays out. I am optimistic, but in the back of my mind, I keep worrying about the possibility of maintaining that strong SE ridge that we've seen remain consistent all winter. Hopefully, that won't happen. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Southern Track Posted January 5, 2013 Share Posted January 5, 2013 If we keep a -PNA, we may keep the SE ridge too (that's my one red flag wrt the upcoming pattern change to colder weather later), so the GFS in fact may not be too warm. We'll have to see how it all plays out. I am optimistic, but in the back of my mind, I keep worrying about the possibility of maintaining that strong SE ridge that we've seen remain consistent all winter. Hopefully, that won't happen. Some mets have mentioned that having a strong -NAO and -AO would override an uncooperative PNA in the heart of winter. That SE ridge is stubborn, so a neutral to positive PNA wouldn't hurt! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAD_Wedge_NC Posted January 5, 2013 Share Posted January 5, 2013 Some mets have mentioned that having a strong -NAO and -AO would override an uncooperative PNA in the heart of winter. That SE ridge is stubborn, so a neutral to positive PNA wouldn't hurt! Agree.....Neutral PNA would not be too bad. Just don't want it to go negative. In my opinion, a slight ridge (properly located) might not be such a bad thing if we could keep the cold air in place. It would prevent gulf lows from being too supressed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted January 5, 2013 Author Share Posted January 5, 2013 Some mets have mentioned that having a strong -NAO and -AO would override an uncooperative PNA in the heart of winter. That SE ridge is stubborn, so a neutral to positive PNA wouldn't hurt! Yeah, I would definitely take a neutral PNA with a good -AO/NAO combo. If things indeed play out this way it will be in sync with a great climo period for us, so there's a legitimate reason to be optimistic...at least until the Euro Weeklies come back out again on Monday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NC_hailstorm Posted January 5, 2013 Share Posted January 5, 2013 ECMWF/GFS have the SSW forecast down to day 2 now. We have a second warming on day 5/6.Warming and ozone flux on the SE side of the PV in the W.Atlantic/E.USA heading NE toward Greenland.This will link up with the ridge over E.Asia/Alaska over the pole on the models. Third warming showing up in central Canada around day 9/10.ECMWF has this today,GFS has been up and down on it so we'll see.Could lead to better blocking. Looks like the split PV will go into NW Canada to start with around day 8/10..After that it's impossible to say I've seen many wild swings from coast to coast.I believe though if we can gt a strong surface low and some MJO help things can get pulled east with time.Very good MJO forecast from the ECMWF today it has it going into phase 7 fairly strong.GFS has it also coming around. I still see good geopotential heights showing up around Greenland,Arctic,parts of Alaska. Just my opinion. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
calculus1 Posted January 5, 2013 Share Posted January 5, 2013 Well, if nothing else, it appears the next 10 days of January will at least be wet. Here's the total predicted precip totals from days 1-5 on the 12Z GFS. SC and GA tend to miss out in these first few days, but NC and especially TN do pretty well. And here are days 6-10 off the same run of the GFS. Everybody in the SE gets in on some pretty hefty amounts. 3-4 inches of precip total is not too bad over the next 10 days. The drought appears to be fading for some areas that have missed out on the precip lately, but I know some of you in SE GA and SC are still not going to be satisfied with these totals. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dsaur Posted January 5, 2013 Share Posted January 5, 2013 If we keep a -PNA, we may keep the SE ridge too (that's my one red flag wrt the upcoming pattern change to colder weather later), so the GFS in fact may not be too warm. We'll have to see how it all plays out. I am optimistic, but in the back of my mind, I keep worrying about the possibility of maintaining that strong SE ridge that we've seen remain consistent all winter. Hopefully, that won't happen. I noticed the strong ridge, as strong as ever on the 12z, but also noticed the rain wasn't all going up and over. As long as I keep seeing rains coming in here, and not just drizzle, while Tenn. gets the juice, I'll be happy to wait on the cold. But, yeah, that ridge is the fly in the cold soup. T Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Poimen Posted January 5, 2013 Share Posted January 5, 2013 EURO develops big Greenland ridge by day 8 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HKY_WX Posted January 5, 2013 Share Posted January 5, 2013 Man this place is dead. The GFS long range is not showing much. There is cold but it is not as cold from two days back and it looks to keep pushing back the arrival. BUT, there are some very big differences occuring right now. The NAO is now looking to go negative in the next week or so, The AO will also go back negative (from slight positice). The PNA is looking to go negative but not as strong as a couple days back. So, this may be the case where the longe range GFS is too warm. It will have to play catch-up. This place will be very busy in a few weeks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HKY_WX Posted January 5, 2013 Share Posted January 5, 2013 The block showing up on the euro is a very sig' development. It aligns well with the LR CFS and should put us in the icebox b/n the 15th-20th and on. It's the best looking altantic setup in 2 years. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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