NCSNOW Posted January 4, 2013 Share Posted January 4, 2013 6z gfs still putting a damper on warmup for next week. It'll be above normal 850 wise, but with ne surface flow 1st half of week followed by clouds and wet ground things will have a hard time getting out of hand in NC. Pattern flips one week from Sunday 1/13/13. Shows some -15 850 departures in NC that week, then going on out in fantasy land check out the -24 850's in NW NC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCSNOW Posted January 4, 2013 Share Posted January 4, 2013 Euro 0z on board to with 1/13ish pattern flip. Also show NAO going negative this time frame. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FallsLake Posted January 4, 2013 Share Posted January 4, 2013 The PNA looks to be going at least slightly negative (not good for SE cold), but the NAO looks to be going negative by mid month and the AO looks to go back negative by mid month after going postive for a week. So we should have the AO and NAO on our side (for cold SE) by mid month. http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/daily_ao_index/teleconnections.shtml Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Bob Posted January 4, 2013 Share Posted January 4, 2013 6z gfs still putting a damper on warmup for next week. It'll be above normal 850 wise, but with ne surface flow 1st half of week followed by clouds and wet ground things will have a hard time getting out of hand in NC. Pattern flips one week from Sunday 1/13/13. Shows some -15 850 departures in NC that week, then going on out in fantasy land check out the -24 850's in NW NC. Who cares? There is no reason to check it out. There is some version of this every day on one of the GFS runs at 372hrs. Without a major reshuffling of the pattern, we are not going to see any real cold and the 11-15 day Euro Ens and the new weeklies don't show that through mid Jan...but the next cooler spell could still provide some entertainment value towards the latter part of January...It is still better than last year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted January 4, 2013 Share Posted January 4, 2013 6z gfs still putting a damper on warmup for next week. It'll be above normal 850 wise, but with ne surface flow 1st half of week followed by clouds and wet ground things will have a hard time getting out of hand in NC. Pattern flips one week from Sunday 1/13/13. Shows some -15 850 departures in NC that week, then going on out in fantasy land check out the -24 850's in NW NC. SFC temps were in the single digits for much of WNC out in la la land. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Poimen Posted January 4, 2013 Share Posted January 4, 2013 I think the -AO is a lock and the -NAO is highly likely...but not certain. If the two do go negative it should produce much different results than the previous episode when there was no cold air in Canada. Much different this time around...so we should have a better shot this time around if both indices go negative. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
strongwxnc Posted January 4, 2013 Share Posted January 4, 2013 Love seeing that but I assume it will be hard to come by giving the odds that are stacked against it. Trying to think of the last time I saw 850's that cold around these parts. 6z gfs still putting a damper on warmup for next week. It'll be above normal 850 wise, but with ne surface flow 1st half of week followed by clouds and wet ground things will have a hard time getting out of hand in NC. Pattern flips one week from Sunday 1/13/13. Shows some -15 850 departures in NC that week, then going on out in fantasy land check out the -24 850's in NW NC. Maybe it would be good for you or other Mets to give us non met folks a hour cap to look at. Who cares? There is no reason to check it out. There is some version of this every day on one of the GFS runs at 372hrs. Without a major reshuffling of the pattern, we are not going to see any real cold and the 11-15 day Euro Ens and the new weeklies don't show that through mid Jan...but the next cooler spell could still provide some entertainment value towards the latter part of January...It is still better than last year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Bob Posted January 4, 2013 Share Posted January 4, 2013 Maybe it would be good for you or other Mets to give us non met folks a hour cap to look at. GFS 84hr at best.... All of you who are experienced amateurs know what makes sense and what does not. The amount of knowledge you and others here have make it worth reading on a daily basis so I highly doubt that it is truly necessary to put a limit (but I figure there is a bit of sarcasm included here)...I know people can't help themselves and of course with Panovich posting it on his FB page, it lends credibility where there is none ...so it is clearly a losing battle. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
strongwxnc Posted January 4, 2013 Share Posted January 4, 2013 Cool! Thanks Mr. Bob! Also, thanks for posting your thoughts are here sir ! GFS 84hr at best.... All of you who are experienced amateurs know what makes sense and what does not. The amount of knowledge you and others here have make it worth reading on a daily basis so I highly doubt that it is truly necessary to put a limit (but I figure there is a bit of sarcasm included here)...I know people can't help themselves and of course with Panovich posting it on his FB page, it lends credibility where there is none ...so it is clearly a losing battle. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaffneyPeach Posted January 4, 2013 Share Posted January 4, 2013 Cool! Thanks Mr. Bob! Also, thanks for posting your thoughts are here sir ! Completely agree with the above statement! **Thanks for the heads-up about Panovich's FB page. I just 'liked' it.** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bevo Posted January 4, 2013 Share Posted January 4, 2013 GFS 84hr at best.... All of you who are experienced amateurs know what makes sense and what does not. The amount of knowledge you and others here have make it worth reading on a daily basis so I highly doubt that it is truly necessary to put a limit (but I figure there is a bit of sarcasm included here)...I know people can't help themselves and of course with Panovich posting it on his FB page, it lends credibility where there is none ...so it is clearly a losing battle. As far as having confidence in the solutions, 84 hrs would be my absolute MAX. But I am known to be a stubborn soul with trusting models past 72 hrs anyway. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowNiner Posted January 4, 2013 Share Posted January 4, 2013 Facebook reply from Robert to wxbrad post. wxsouth potentially several SSW events on the way, and the new +PNA pattern shown on GFS and ECMWF could be the first clue, plus Euro wants to break up the Polar Vortex in about 10 days. The whole flow could be changing, but it's really tough to know for sure. If it does, then I think we'll head back to blocking in Greenland, which was a mainstay this Fall, and with that feature in Winter, the Carolinas would do very well with Winter Storms. This is my intent the next 10 days, trying to interpret what these SSW events are doing to the overall flow and pattern; does blocking set up in Alaska and Canada and where the PVs set up (SE Hudson Bay please). Looks like Robert's all over it. I think the models in the long range will be somewhat useful in helping to analyze that at least. With both the EURO weeklies and CVS (heh) long range tools looking cold later on, along with the long range EURO and GFS showing cold, I'm starting to get a good feeling about the effects of the SSW events and that they may actually be legit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted January 4, 2013 Share Posted January 4, 2013 Not sure why, but the ensembles don't get the attention that they deserve when it comes to the 5+ day period...as they have a better chance of verifying http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/pmsl_verif/SEASON_PMSL_MRDG_DAY7_ANOMCORR.gif http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/pmsl_verif/index.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted January 4, 2013 Share Posted January 4, 2013 Interesting 12z has an ULL (doesn't look too potent) trekking across TN. It pops up at around hr 123 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Marion_NC_WX Posted January 4, 2013 Share Posted January 4, 2013 I bet the end of the 12z GFS shows a different evolution of the cold in the LR...I see its got another low in the Southwest at 168. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted January 4, 2013 Share Posted January 4, 2013 I bet the end of the 12z GFS shows a different evolution of the cold in the LR...I see its got another low in the Southwest at 168. Cold air delays by about two days...but in the LR GFS that might as well be a week lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
beanskip Posted January 4, 2013 Share Posted January 4, 2013 12z GFS really slows down the onset of cold air. Things had progressed nicely over the past few days -- what started out as a Day 12 outbreak was down to a Day 9 1/2 yesterday, but now, it's back to Day 11. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Marion_NC_WX Posted January 4, 2013 Share Posted January 4, 2013 Given the trends so far this winter...anytime I see the GFS shift back towards the west coast as it did in this run (Day 7)...it concerns me. Hope that was just a hiccup. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted January 4, 2013 Share Posted January 4, 2013 12z GFS also doesn't drop the mother load of cold air like the 6z had. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted January 4, 2013 Share Posted January 4, 2013 Given the trends so far this winter...anytime I see the GFS shift back towards the west coast as it did in this run (Day 7)...it concerns me. Hope that was just a hiccup. You can also see on this run that Alaska gets extremely cold on this run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Marion_NC_WX Posted January 4, 2013 Share Posted January 4, 2013 You can also see on this run that Alaska gets extremely cold on this run. Yep...don't like the look of that, either. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted January 4, 2013 Share Posted January 4, 2013 Based on the new Euro weeklies, Euro operational/ensembles, the warm Dec. analogs, the anticipated renewal of the -AO/-NAO, the SSW event and the tendency of the GFS to rush cold, I'm thinking that around the 20th will be our first real chance at sustained below normal temp.'s. The 12Z GFS slows down the cooling to few people's surprise. I expect more false early cold shots to continue to show up on the GFS op. runs. Nobody knows if it will get cold in late Jan., but I have a lot of hope. However, until then, I don't have much hope and don't really mind, regardless. I'll just enjoy the great walking weather in the meantime. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted January 4, 2013 Share Posted January 4, 2013 Based on the new Euro weeklies, Euro operational/ensembles, the warm Dec. analogs, the anticipated renewal of the -AO/-NAO, the SSW event and the tendency of the GFS to rush cold, I'm thinking that around the 20th will be our first real chance at sustained below normal temp.'s. The 12Z GFS slows down the cooling to few people's surprise. I expect more false early cold shots to continue to show up on the GFS op. runs. Nobody knows if it will get cold in late Jan., but I have a lot of hope. However, until then, I don't have much hope and don't really mind, regardless. I'll just enjoy the great walking weather in the meantime. Thanks GaWx! I agree, no point in really looking at the models hoping to see a glimpse of early cold coming, maybe by next week at this time we can start seeing some nice trends at day 10. The latest CFS weeklies look great, big -AO/-NAO, really cold the last 10 days and wet week 3 and equal chances for week 4. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Bob Posted January 4, 2013 Share Posted January 4, 2013 I expect more false early cold shots to continue to show up on the GFS op. runs. Me too! Seriously though, I would feel better if the Euro Ens evolution would look better in the outlying days as well as the next Euro weekly run on Mon to back this one up. I like the idea of the cool back half of Jan but it is hard to bite off on really cold without a better looking pattern.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
beanskip Posted January 4, 2013 Share Posted January 4, 2013 Another half-decent looking Euro Day 10 map -- problem is, that's three straight days where the cold doesn't arrive until Day 10 -- typical cold mirage -- need it to move into the day 7-8 range to be even remotely believable. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowNiner Posted January 4, 2013 Share Posted January 4, 2013 Another half-decent looking Euro Day 10 map -- problem is, that's three straight days where the cold doesn't arrive until Day 10 -- typical cold mirage -- need it to move into the day 7-8 range to be even remotely believable. 10 Day from today would be early cold, which it doesn't seem like is going to happen IMO. On January 10, that's my deadline for the 10 day to start getting closer cause that's the target date of January 20. That's the time frame that lines up with the CFS and the Weeklies doesn't it? So Jan 11, 12, 13, the cold should start getting closer and closer. If it's not by then, that's when I'll start worrying. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tnweathernut Posted January 4, 2013 Share Posted January 4, 2013 I think it's becoming likely that a period of exceptional cold is coming to N.A. I am also still liking the looks of the last 10 days of January being colder to much colder than normal the further west you go in the southeast. With the EPO projected to dip, the AO and NAO projected to go negative and the splitting of the polar vortex (SSW) coming in the next few days we should start progressing to colder weather on the maps in the coming week. First aimed toward the plains and west, but it should spread east (slowly and steadily) as we head to the last 10 days of January. Ensembles still look good and there is a LOT of agreement for ridging developing in great spots to dislodge some very cold air that will be aimed directly at North America................. I know, I know.............long range crap, lucy pulling the football, mirages, always at 10 days, etc........... blah blah blah. Hide and watch, winter is coming. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Poimen Posted January 4, 2013 Share Posted January 4, 2013 I think it's becoming likely that a period of exceptional cold is coming to N.A. I am also still liking the looks of the last 10 days of January being colder to much colder than normal the further west you go in the southeast. With the EPO projected to dip, the AO and NAO projected to go negative and the splitting of the polar vortex (SSW) coming in the next few days we should start progressing to colder weather on the maps in the coming week. First aimed toward the plains and west, but it should spread east (slowly and steadily) as we head to the last 10 days of January. Ensembles still look good and there is a LOT of agreement for ridging developing in great spots to dislodge some very cold air that will be aimed directly at North America................. I know, I know.............long range crap, lucy pulling the football, mirages, always at 10 days, etc........... blah blah blah. Hide and watch, winter is coming. I agree, I'm pretty bullish myself for the last half of January...for at least some sustained cold getting into these parts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GreensboroWx Posted January 4, 2013 Share Posted January 4, 2013 No doubt the models are showing quite a cold blast by mid and late month. Have you seen the fcsted strength of the ridge into AK? This in combo with a good block over Greenland is a BIG positive for winter weather in the SE. On a side note, I'm not sure I would call next week a "torch"....at least not in NW NC. Granted, there will be above normal temps late next week into the weekend, but I wouldn't quite break out the shorts and sunscreen yet! There also could be a bout of severe weather ahead of the arctic front the following week. Lots to watch! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tnweathernut Posted January 4, 2013 Share Posted January 4, 2013 No doubt the models are showing quite a cold blast by mid and late month. Have you seen the fcsted strength of the ridge into AK? This in combo with a good block over Greenland is a BIG positive for winter weather in the SE. On a side note, I'm not sure I would call next week a "torch"....at least not in NW NC. Granted, there will be above normal temps late next week into the weekend, but I wouldn't quite break out the shorts and sunscreen yet! There also could be a bout of severe weather ahead of the arctic front the following week. Lots to watch! Agreed, the ensembles really back this up which is the big reason for my optimism we finally see a stretch of winter coming later this month. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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