January Pattern and Storm Discussion

[packbacker]

The snow or the heat?

 

I would tend to lean toward somewhat of a warm snap - it's not uncommon, and given the speed of the PAC and no blocking help, it makes sense to go with a progressive and milder prog in the coming weeks.  How warm is still a question, at least for me, because I haven't had the displeasure many have had with being so warm.  Maybe it's geography or whatever, but it just didn't get as warm as progged for me most of December.

 

It remains to be seen if guidance is still struggling with a hyper active flow - personally, I'm not banking on the late January cold if that flow does not slow down.

 

I agree, the fast flow is a concern. it's going to be hard to get a big storm this winter with that, which is why I think we get a couple of 2-4" storms.  

 

The warmth we had in December all occurred in the first 3 weeks, so really the last 10 days have been seasonable although technically I think we are roughly +3.  So I certainly understand people when they say it's felt like a normal winter, because nobody recalls what the weather was like the first 3 weeks of December.  If we have a similar warm up in January for 2-3 weeks people will feel the difference.

 

We really should measure winter weather starting on December 21st and ending say first week of March.

[metalicwx366]

Amazing warmth showing up next week on the Euro for the SE, starting next Tuesday with temps in the 50-60's and building by the end of the run with highs in the 70's. It actually has some lows at nighttime in the 50/60's. It's going to be great when the weather turns cold and snow down the road.

Hopefully it stays warm. That looks beautiful. Can't get the cold so lets go to the beach.

[packbacker]

Hopefully it stays warm. That looks beautiful. Can't get the cold so lets go to the beach.

 

Not sure if your being serious but unusual warmth is as good as a snow for me, I love it warm in the winter 

[burgertime]

Euro EPS control which goes out to 360 had a descent look at 300...had what should be a big snow storm for NC...that being said it's about as reliable as the GFS out to that time frame. It also looks a lot like the GFS with more transient shots of cold air. 

[NCSNOW]

Wonder if the 18z Nam will be enough ammo for Wilkesborodude to start a new thread on Sunday potential flizzard in northern NC?

 

http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/nam/18znam850mbTSLPp06066.gif

 

 

[burgertime]

Wonder if the 18z Nam will be enough ammo for Wilkesborodude to start a new thread on Sunday potential flizzard in northern NC?

 

http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/nam/18znam850mbTSLPp06066.gif

 

 

I'll tell ya what if that vort heading south could trend stronger and keep it's general direction the NAM had it on 84 at least someone in south east could possible get a real threat! Not sure how potent that closed low is pushing across but it could turn into something. Probably nothing is going to be there by 00z though. 

[metalicwx366]

Not sure if your being serious but unusual warmth is as good as a snow for me, I love it warm in the winter 

 

I was being 100% serious. I love warm in the winter also. Its beautiful when the afternoons are warm and sunny.     It's so miserable out here right now with steady rain and temps in the 40s.

[GaWx]

Just released Euro weeklies:

Great news considering how bad they looked Monday, how much attention they have gotten recently, and that they don't appear to have a cold bias (but keep in mind this is FWIW): (Keep in mind that today's week #3 = Monday's week #4)

1) Monday's week #4, which was very warm for virtually the entire US, is now below normal for virtually the entire US in today's week #3.

2) Today's week #4 is below normal for virtually the entire US.

3) NAO/AO, which was pretty neutral in Monday's week #4, are very impressively negative in today's week #3. Week #4's AO/NAO is also impressively negative.

3) The new weeklies have a very nice +PNA for weeks 3 and 4, something that has been rare recently.

4) Precip. for the SE during weeks 3 and 4 near normal...so not bad at all for a cold pattern since +PNA type cold is often associated with dry in the SE.

Summary:

Per the Euro weeklies of Monday, winter's return had to wait at the very least til the last few days of the month (say 1/28+) and even that was questionable.Today's weeklies say that winter returns to the SE US ~1/20. By the way and fwiw, this would fit well with the warm Dec. analogs, which say wait til late Jan.-Mar. for best winter opportunities.

[SnowNiner]

Just released Euro weeklies:

Great news considering how bad they looked Monday, how much attention they have gotten recently, and that they don't appear to have a cold bias (but keep in mind this is FWIW): (Keep in mind that today's week #3 = Monday's week #4)

1) Monday's week #4, which was very warm for virtually the entire US, is now below normal for virtually the entire US in today's week #3.

2) Today's week #4 is below normal for virtually the entire US.

3) NAO/AO, which was pretty neutral in Monday's week #4, are very impressively negative in today's week #3. Week #4's AO/NAO is also impressively negative.

3) The new weeklies have a very nice +PNA for weeks 3 and 4, something that has been rare recently.

4) Precip. for the SE during weeks 3 and 4 near normal...so not bad at all for a cold pattern since +PNA type cold is often associated with dry in the SE.

Summary:

Per the Euro weeklies of Monday, winter's return had to wait at the very least til the last few days of the month (say 1/28+) and even that was questionable.Today's weeklies say that winter returns ~1/20.

 

 

Doesn't that correspond well with the GFS and the blocking/ridges in both Greenland and Alaska that it's been showing in the long range?  The GFS may be showing it a bit sooner than week 3, but extrapolate for the tendancy for the GFS to rush in patterns and rush the cold and  it seems to match up pretty well.   Maybe the models are starting to pick up on the SSW event and the broken/displaced PV at the pole. 

 

That is good news though; especially since many give alot of credance to the EURO weeklies.  I'm telling you though, I just think the GFS has been doing very well in the long range.  This may be another feather in it's cap if it comes to fruition. 

[Jon]

Someone posted this read on the Carolina Crusher somewhere on the board (sorry, can't find it...it may even be in this thread) http://www.weatherbell.com/newsletter-1-4-2012-d

 

One thing I'd add is it's interesting how people explain when the pattern flips that there is a lag time. I don't see that here (maybe with the NAO but that's around 5 days, is that a "lag time"?) Clearly there was a huge flip, but when this happens toward the end of January or the heart of winter, I'm guessing that lag time is much smaller. So as soon as we see the teleconnections progged to go back to a favorable pattern, I'd say it's game on. Given that it was 2000,

[Carvers Gap]

Just released Euro weeklies:

Great news considering how bad they looked Monday, how much attention they have gotten recently, and that they don't appear to have a cold bias (but keep in mind this is FWIW): (Keep in mind that today's week #3 = Monday's week #4)

1) Monday's week #4, which was very warm for virtually the entire US, is now below normal for virtually the entire US in today's week #3.

2) Today's week #4 is below normal for virtually the entire US.

3) NAO/AO, which was pretty neutral in Monday's week #4, are very impressively negative in today's week #3. Week #4's AO/NAO is also impressively negative.

3) The new weeklies have a very nice +PNA for weeks 3 and 4, something that has been rare recently.

4) Precip. for the SE during weeks 3 and 4 near normal...so not bad at all for a cold pattern since +PNA type cold is often associated with dry in the SE.

Summary:

Per the Euro weeklies of Monday, winter's return had to wait at the very least til the last few days of the month (say 1/28+) and even that was questionable.Today's weeklies say that winter returns to the SE US ~1/20. By the way and fwiw, this would fit well with the warm Dec. analogs, which say wait til late Jan.-Mar. for best winter opportunities.

 

GaWx, thanks for the update.  That would mirror what CFS2 was showing just a few days back.  The SSW and the fact it will be mid-winter seem to be the variables that are in our favor.  Also, are we going into another La Nina period this summer?  Hope not. 

[rduwx]

Just released Euro weeklies:

Great news considering how bad they looked Monday, how much attention they have gotten recently, and that they don't appear to have a cold bias (but keep in mind this is FWIW): (Keep in mind that today's week #3 = Monday's week #4)

1) Monday's week #4, which was very warm for virtually the entire US, is now below normal for virtually the entire US in today's week #3.

2) Today's week #4 is below normal for virtually the entire US.

3) NAO/AO, which was pretty neutral in Monday's week #4, are very impressively negative in today's week #3. Week #4's AO/NAO is also impressively negative.

3) The new weeklies have a very nice +PNA for weeks 3 and 4, something that has been rare recently.

4) Precip. for the SE during weeks 3 and 4 near normal...so not bad at all for a cold pattern since +PNA type cold is often associated with dry in the SE.

Summary:

Per the Euro weeklies of Monday, winter's return had to wait at the very least til the last few days of the month (say 1/28+) and even that was questionable.Today's weeklies say that winter returns to the SE US ~1/20. By the way and fwiw, this would fit well with the warm Dec. analogs, which say wait til late Jan.-Mar. for best winter opportunities.

That's some good news...Thanks so much for the update!

[Bevo]

I agree, the fast flow is a concern. it's going to be hard to get a big storm this winter with that, which is why I think we get a couple of 2-4" storms.  

 

The warmth we had in December all occurred in the first 3 weeks, so really the last 10 days have been seasonable although technically I think we are roughly +3.  So I certainly understand people when they say it's felt like a normal winter, because nobody recalls what the weather was like the first 3 weeks of December.  If we have a similar warm up in January for 2-3 weeks people will feel the difference.

 

We really should measure winter weather starting on December 21st and ending say first week of March.

 

Would someone be so kind as to explain the necessary dynamics that would slow down the flow?  Looking at these LR attempts by guidance to bring a cold change, I'm leery of the obvious inability for models to approximate a solution when the PAC needs Adderall.

 

BTW pack - when I see that red star under your name, I hear a booming arcade voice like you've reached a boss level in a video game...Mega Pack!

[NCSNOW]

Someone posted this read on the Carolina Crusher somewhere on the board (sorry, can't find it...it may even be in this thread) http://www.weatherbell.com/newsletter-1-4-2012-d

 

One thing I'd add is it's interesting how people explain when the pattern flips that there is a lag time. I don't see that here (maybe with the NAO but that's around 5 days, is that a "lag time"?) Clearly there was a huge flip, but when this happens toward the end of January or the heart of winter, I'm guessing that lag time is much smaller. So as soon as we see the teleconnections progged to go back to a favorable pattern, I'd say it's game on. Given that it was 2000,

I posted that link in the tidbits/teasers thread. You are correct and that first image clearly shows the dramatic reversal between the NAO and PNA teleconnection indicies. No lag time and it was game on . Hopefully we can get the rubberband theory JB espouses from old time forecasters to work the same magic it did back in 2000 If the newly released euro weeklies prove correct.

How many of you think January 2013 will wind up negative departure from normal temp wise (mean temp) at RDU,PTI. I think by the time we get to next Tuesday we could possibly be a hair tick below or just normal.at these 2 locations. Keep in mind at PTI today the high was 7 below normal and with the clouds out of the way our low will be at 11:59 tonight. I know next Tues-Fri will most likely be the only big warm surplus days for the month of JAN. I'm going with a eyebrow raising -2 from standard deviation at PTI for January 2013. Gonna hang my hat on some hunches and encouraging signs from euro weeklies, strat e.t.c. If I'm wrong then GAWX can Lucy me this month instead of WOW. I will really need a strong lakes cutter to swing by my west next weekend to drag a pattern change cold front in it's wake.

[IWC]

Wonder if the 18z Nam will be enough ammo for Wilkesborodude to start a new thread on Sunday potential flizzard in northern NC?

 

http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/nam/18znam850mbTSLPp06066.gif

 

Don'T give him any Ideas

[Cold Rain]

Would someone be so kind as to explain the necessary dynamics that would slow down the flow? Looking at these LR attempts by guidance to bring a cold change, I'm leery of the obvious inability for models to approximate a solution when the PAC needs Adderall.

BTW pack - when I see that red star under your name, I hear a booming arcade voice like you've reached a boss level in a video game...Mega Pack!

This might not be helpful because I can't access a map right now to illustrate, but I'll give it a shot. A strong polar vortex all wrapped up nice and tight basically fosters a fast wind field around it. It needs to weaken (a SSW can help to instigate that). Also, features like a tall PNA ridge and Greenland blocking can slow down the flow, giving storms an opportunity to amplify. Then get the storm in the right spot, mix in some cold air, and Bob's your uncle. Features like a tightly wound PV in northern Canada or a big GOA vortex will usually result in a fast, energetic flow over the northern US/southern Canada. We don't like those.

I know that's kinda general, but I hope it helps. Well on!

[Bevo]

This might not be helpful because I can't access a map right now to illustrate, but I'll give it a shot. A strong polar vortex all wrapped up nice and tight basically fosters a fast wind field around it. It needs to weaken (a SSW can help to instigate that). Also, features like a tall PNA ridge and Greenland blocking can slow down the flow, giving storms an opportunity to amplify. Then get the storm in the right spot, mix in some cold air, and Bob's your uncle. Features like a tightly wound PV in northern Canada or a big GOA vortex will usually result in a fast, energetic flow over the northern US/southern Canada. We don't like those.

I know that's kinda general, but I hope it helps. Well on!

 

I prefer "Robert's your fava's bruva".

 

That helps, and is what I suspected.  And, strat warming plus a Manute Bol PNA could really pop that vortex,  both of which have been suggested by guidance (as well as minimal blocking) - just not at the same time.  I'm still hesitant to trust the LR cold calls though, until one or both genuinely occur.

[FallsLake]

Man the 18z GFS does look nice in the long range. shows a possible storm at day 11 but really it's the cold look that is more important at this range. It looks to me that the warm spell would run from day 4 to 9. From now to day 4 it looks very normal (temp wise) for most of us. A 5 day warm period is not bad (...for what we were looking at a few days back). I just hope this run is close to correct.

[DCMetroWinston]

The upcoming widespread warmth is really gonna eat up our national snowcover.

[POWERSTROKE]

A lot of times it gets warm right before a winter storm pops a surprise. I remember several times 50-60 degree days and day or two later we have plows on the road

[burgertime]

The upcoming widespread warmth is really gonna eat up our national snowcover.

 

I wouldn't be too worried about it never gets too warm in the midwest and with some big storms rolling through near the end of the run that should lay that snow cover back down with what does recede .

[jburns]

A lot of times it gets warm right before a winter storm pops a surprise. I remember several times 50-60 degree days and day or two later we have plows on the road

 

So true, but by a factor of 10 those time are surpassed by the times where 50-60 degree days were followed a day or two later by 70-80 degree days.  

[strongwxnc]

It sure does. The 11-15 day period on the 18z (but also the past four runs of the GFS) has produced over 4 total inches of qpf for my location. Temps look marginal but during qpf events, the 850's are close. Should be interesting to see where we are during the "warm" up !

 

Man the 18z GFS does look nice in the long range. shows a possible storm at day 11 but really it's the cold look that is more important at this range. It looks to me that the warm spell would run from day 4 to 9. From now to day 4 it looks very normal (temp wise) for most of us. A 5 day warm period is not bad (...for what we were looking at a few days back). I just hope this run is close to correct.

 

 

[CaryWx]

Someone posted this read on the Carolina Crusher somewhere on the board (sorry, can't find it...it may even be in this thread) http://www.weatherbell.com/newsletter-1-4-2012-d

 

One thing I'd add is it's interesting how people explain when the pattern flips that there is a lag time. I don't see that here (maybe with the NAO but that's around 5 days, is that a "lag time"?) Clearly there was a huge flip, but when this happens toward the end of January or the heart of winter, I'm guessing that lag time is much smaller. So as soon as we see the teleconnections progged to go back to a favorable pattern, I'd say it's game on. Given that it was 2000,

 

Here you go Jon

 

http://www.talkweather.com/forums/index.php?showtopic=30650&st=0

[MillerA]

Facebook reply from Robert to wxbrad post.

wxsouth

potentially several SSW events on the way, and the new +PNA pattern shown on GFS and ECMWF could be the first clue, plus Euro wants to break up the Polar Vortex in about 10 days. The whole flow could be changing, but it's really tough to know for sure. If it does, then I think we'll head back to blocking in Greenland, which was a mainstay this Fall, and with that feature in Winter, the Carolinas would do very well with Winter Storms.

[NCSNOW]

0z GFS says not so fast with the warmup scheduled for next Tues-Fri in NC CAD areas. Has a 1040 HP slide by Monday and by Tues overuning precip will lock in a hybird damming event. These are tough to dislodge and they are very resillient in the early spring. Since next week resembles an early spring like pattern for a few days I'd be weary in NC of thinking we'll be sitting outside in 60 degree weather all week. Of course it i the GFS, but you can see what a good HP will do east of the apps

http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/gfs/00zgfs850mbTSLPNA114.html

[HKY_WX]

Euro ens's really only have about a 7 to 8 day warm up from the 8th-15th. I think this month could average close to normal in the southeast. If the positive departures don't get too crazy next week. Still thinking the second half of of this month into february will be our best shot at snow. It's ashame the timing was off this week b/c we could have had something decent.

[Shawn]

Euro ens's really only have about a 7 to 8 day warm up from the 8th-15th. I think this month could average close to normal in the southeast. If the positive departures don't get too crazy next week. Still thinking the second half of of this month into february will be our best shot at snow. It's ashame the timing was off this week b/c we could have had something decent.

 

Climo loves the very last week or two of Jan-Very first of March.  If nothing by Feb.20th cold wise, I'll most likely give up for much of a snow storm as a possibility.  I'm more worried of severe storms the way the weather is heading lately.

[BullCityWx]

My question to those who know more to me is this:

Does a pattern change triggered by a SSW come quicker than a more traditional pattern change? If that makes any sense.

[Met1985]

My question to those who know more to me is this:

Does a pattern change triggered by a SSW come quicker than a more traditional pattern change? If that makes any sense.

 

Not sure if this is right but from what I am reading it takes about 2-3 weeks to start seeing a significant change in the pattern. Also from what I have learned we need both the Ao and the NAO to go negative. Which it is a given the AO will go negative but if the NAO stays positive then we will not see the effects from the SSW.