January Pattern and Storm Discussion

[BullCityWx]

Wow the euro weeklies are terrible

[bhamwx205]

Wow the euro weeklies are terrible

The weeklies change almost every time they come out. They have been ALL over the map

[jburns]

OK, so the way that I read this map is that, for the majority of NC, the mean temp during the 6-10 day time frame of January 8-12 averages out to be somewhere between 40 F and 45 F, according to climatology.  The dark red shading covering a majority of NC indicates that, according to NOAA, there is a 60% chance that we will be warmer than normal for that period (a mean temp of 40-45 F).  Technically speaking, that means we could be destined for days with the mean temp at 46 F.  Not exactly a torch, necessarily.

 

By the way they are constructed with bright red colors, these maps give the impression that we need to get ready for August-like temperatures.  For instance, it appears that Ohio will be roasting during this same time frame (according to the volcano red covering most of the state), but their normal mean temp range (from this same map) is between 25-35 F depending on what part of Ohio you reside in.  So, if you lived in Cleveland, for example, you could be destined for above normal temperatures which might equate to a mean temp of 30 F.  Lots of snow could still fall for them and days could be quite chilly over that period, all other things being equal.

 

Anyway, all this to say, that just because we have some dark reds over us, it doesn't mean that we're going to be breaking out the shorts and tank tops in a week.  Perhaps that will be the case, but this map alone only demonstrates that NOAA has pretty high confidence in a good portion of the east being warmer than "normal," whatever that "normal" happens to be.

 

(FYI:  I am not making any type of forecast here or predicting any conditions.  I'm just interpreting the map as its own stand-alone entity and discussing some of the possible implications.)

 

 

Correct.  The map does not even attempt to predict how much above or below average the temps will be. It simply assigns a percentage to the likelihood of above or below average temps in a given area.

[dsaur]

LOL.....this Tony feels your pain Tony. I have to tell you that these models and boards of today are very interesting to say the least and I guess I'm glad we have them, but I have to say that sometimes I almost wish it was like many years ago when we weren't able to come on a computer and follow this stuff way ahead like we do now. At least we had hope in the backs of our minds then without being shot down right after it popped into our minds. I do like being able to follow these trends here but sometimes I long for the time that we couldn't do it.

 

Lol, it's still kind of like that now.  These models are great, for entertainment past a few days, but you have to read so much into pattern, and tendency, like the cold bias, or the tendency for storms to pull north, except when they don't.  I can count on one hand the number of storms that have showed up beyond a few days and held on in the models all the way through.  But we watch and hope, and pick apart nuances, hoping to find some insight, when usually none is available.  The remarkable allure of frozen water, even when we know we are in the dark out past a few days.

  The 0z offers a bit of rain in the next few days, maybe, then nothing for a week or so, then a string of maybe chances.  Well, I've learned that the next few days might come true, but out past that is just shotgun prediction, and I know better, but still go, hmmmmm...that looks good... I wonder what the folks in the thread think of it   The 0z shows some cold, but my common sense says it looks like flying pigs   Oh, well, flying pigs are cool!  Can't beat Floyd, and every once in a blue moon the snow actually comes in on the wings of pigs, lol.   T

[Psalm 148:8]

several sources point to SSW really happening....as in as we speak.....hoping this comes to fruition and that the models change thier tune.....this "above normal spell"....dare I say warm/torch.....is the pits....not to mention very boring.....you know things are stinking it up when tony posted at 1:50 am and I am the next poster. ....and the 12Z GFS is running and there are only 8 people on the thread as of now.

[tnweathernut]

I am seeing very strong modeling agreement wrt the ridge poking its head up into Alaska and ridging across Greenland (mostly east initially). Really, there is just a tremendous amount of ridging showing over the top coming in the next two weeks.  Where the PAC ridge appears to be setting up should yield the coldest air of the season for the west into the plains states.  This air will be coming straight from the pole and will be very dense, not to mention coming across a heck of a lot of snowpack. 

 

This cold air will eventually beat down and press the SE ridge to a point where later in the month we should see systems coming into the base of the trough and riding northeast (each successive system further south and east of the one before it).  This is the type of setup where I can see a nasty ice event for someone in the southeast/southern plains or midsouth. Perhaps we can even work in a little split flow. Time will tell.

 

I wouldn't normally even post something like this with the models having been ALL over the place for the last couple of months BUT (and it's a big but)...........The agreement and placement of ridging is remakably good for something 10 days out.  Time will tell, but I think we have a fairly high liklihood of getting into some serious winter weather in the last 10 days of the month and into February.  With the look being shown it wouldn't take much for someone to hit the "jackpot"

 

Throw in the beginnings of a SSW and it's possible (notice I didn't say probable) we are talking about an extended stretch of fun and games as we head into the last 10 days of January and February.

 

For once, timing could well be on our side.  This will be coming at the time of year where we normally see the bulk of our snow/ice. 

 

It's slow as everything in here and we have been burned many many times in the last two years, so I know that's also a possibility. I just wanted to put forth my two cents worth as we stare a nice warmup in the face and have no storms of note to follow. 

 

Get out and enjoy the warm days and take it FWIW, but I think we are about to have a nice stretch of winter just a little ways down the road.

[SnowNiner]

several sources point to SSW really happening....as in as we speak.....hoping this comes to fruition and that the models change thier tune.....this "above normal spell"....dare I say warm/torch.....is the pits....not to mention very boring.....you know things are stinking it up when tony posted at 1:50 am and I am the next poster. ....and the 12Z GFS is running and there are only 8 people on the thread as of now.

 

I'd really like to hear the Met's thoughts on this SSW that's supposed to be underway and whether or not this will truly be different than last year's (unicorn).  It seems many are saying this really may have the opportunity to split the vortex and drop it south into southern Canada; unleashing some good cold.  My question would be even if it does happen, do we know where the cold would go?  And if the pacific is still stuck would all of it still stay out west and in the plains? 

 

There's been some decent discussion on it on the main board but I was curious how the Mets around here see this shaping up and what the effects could be for the southeast.  Since there's nothing else to talk about for the next 10 days, it seems this is our only hope!

[Jon]

The Next 15 days of nothing is almost inevitable at this point. THE CFSv2 snowfall looks good from day 10-20, but GREAT for the SE for days 15-25. Snow all the way down to the FL panhandle in 3/4 ensemble runs, FWIW. Hopefully the models start spitting something out in the next few days around day 7 to day 10 so this place wakes up again. Meanwhile, we should discuss pattern in the LR!

[metalicwx366]

The Next 15 days of nothing is almost inevitable at this point. THE CFSv2 snowfall looks good from day 10-20, but GREAT for the SE for days 15-25. Snow all the way down to the FL panhandle in 3/4 ensemble runs, FWIW. Hopefully the models start spitting something out in the next few days around day 7 to day 10 so this place wakes up again. Meanwhile, we should discuss pattern in the LR!

At the beginning of December, the CFSv2 Snowfall had the entire east coast blanketed in snowfall except C and S. FL around Christmas. It was right about having 2/3 of the country in snow just off with the locations.

[tonysc]

Lol, it's still kind of like that now.  These models are great, for entertainment past a few days, but you have to read so much into pattern, and tendency, like the cold bias, or the tendency for storms to pull north, except when they don't.  I can count on one hand the number of storms that have showed up beyond a few days and held on in the models all the way through.  But we watch and hope, and pick apart nuances, hoping to find some insight, when usually none is available.  The remarkable allure of frozen water, even when we know we are in the dark out past a few days.

  The 0z offers a bit of rain in the next few days, maybe, then nothing for a week or so, then a string of maybe chances.  Well, I've learned that the next few days might come true, but out past that is just shotgun prediction, and I know better, but still go, hmmmmm...that looks good... I wonder what the folks in the thread think of it   The 0z shows some cold, but my common sense says it looks like flying pigs   Oh, well, flying pigs are cool!  Can't beat Floyd, and every once in a blue moon the snow actually comes in on the wings of pigs, lol.   T

 

Yeah you are right about that and I love to get those big snowstorms that are a complete and utter surprise  to everyone. The only thing I don't like about them though, is that you don't have a couple of days before them to be all excitied about them coming in....it's just BOOM and it's happening, but of course I'll take them any way they come.

[Poimen]

The 12Z GFS continues to drop the AO deeply negative in the extended range, which as I understand it fits well with the ongoing SSW. However, the model has yet to show any signs of a significant -NAO developing during the same time frame, thus the real cold air never drains south with any sustainability, per the model.

 

[Poimen]

 

[Cold Rain]

The model does eventually place the PV in SE Canada, however, which is a MUCH better position than north of Hudson's Bay or migrating over to central-western Canada like it has been showing.

[Carvers Gap]

I am seeing very strong modeling agreement wrt the ridge poking its head up into Alaska and ridging across Greenland (mostly east initially). Really, there is just a tremendous amount of ridging showing over the top coming in the next two weeks.  Where the PAC ridge appears to be setting up should yield the coldest air of the season for the west into the plains states.  This air will be coming straight from the pole and will be very dense, not to mention coming across a heck of a lot of snowpack. 

 

This cold air will eventually beat down and press the SE ridge to a point where later in the month we should see systems coming into the base of the trough and riding northeast (each successive system further south and east of the one before it).  This is the type of setup where I can see a nasty ice event for someone in the southeast/southern plains or midsouth. Perhaps we can even work in a little split flow. Time will tell.

 

I wouldn't normally even post something like this with the models having been ALL over the place for the last couple of months BUT (and it's a big but)...........The agreement and placement of ridging is remakably good for something 10 days out.  Time will tell, but I think we have a fairly high liklihood of getting into some serious winter weather in the last 10 days of the month and into February.  With the look being shown it wouldn't take much for someone to hit the "jackpot"

 

Throw in the beginnings of a SSW and it's possible (notice I didn't say probable) we are talking about an extended stretch of fun and games as we head into the last 10 days of January and February.

 

For once, timing could well be on our side.  This will be coming at the time of year where we normally see the bulk of our snow/ice. 

 

It's slow as everything in here and we have been burned many many times in the last two years, so I know that's also a possibility. I just wanted to put forth my two cents worth as we stare a nice warmup in the face and have no storms of note to follow. 

 

Get out and enjoy the warm days and take it FWIW, but I think we are about to have a nice stretch of winter just a little ways down the road.

 

 

With caution, I would agree with most of that.  The CPC ensembles are set to return to their December state.  That would normally be a good thing other than the fact that the December turned so warm.  All things considered, since we are heading deeper into winter I give heavier weight to the AO and NAO, though the PNA may very well be a thorn all winter.  GFS is definitely hinting at a return of winter.  But it has sucked us in before.  It seems that it is moving the cold air progressively closer in time instead of just keeping it past 240hrs.  The SSW is what seems to be the game changer all things considered.  By Sunday, there should be some model agreement on the intensity of the cold and how far SE it goes.  The duration of any cold snap is a guess. We have examples of cold lasting for months and cold lasting for a few days...during the past year.  What is the MJO status, anyone?

[Southern Track]

Here ya go Carver's

[Poimen]

The model does eventually place the PV in SE Canada, however, which is a MUCH better position than north of Hudson's Bay or migrating over to central-western Canada like it has been showing.

 

Agreed and hope that it is at least in the ball park. The one positive is that there is really cold air on this side of the pole...we just have to get it drain south, which I think it will do eventually sometime this month.

[Cold Rain]

Agreed and hope that it is at least in the ball park. The one positive is that there is really cold air on this side of the pole...we just have to get it drain south, which I think it will do eventually sometime this month.

Yeah, and that is a huge first step...having very cold air on our side of the world. WRT to Southern Track's MJO chart, [NegativeNancy] Why does the MJO always have to explode in amplitude through and then die into the bad stages?? [/NegativeNancy] And on the SSW stuff, this warming is supposed to be substantial, which is good. And it *looks* like some of the cold will be aimed at the US, which is also good...but there are no guarantees, AND there are no guarantees that it would then come east.

We're just gonna have to do what we do best in the SE: hurry up and wait.

[dsaur]

Yeah you are right about that and I love to get those big snowstorms that are a complete and utter surprise  to everyone. The only thing I don't like about them though, is that you don't have a couple of days before them to be all excitied about them coming in....it's just BOOM and it's happening, but of course I'll take them any way they come.

 

So you like to shake your presents before hand, lol.  Well, a step down winter will generate the surprise storms.  Last night Marietta reported sleet, and I was jealous of him, so about 2 am I went out when the line finally sagged down this way, and experienced the most scattered sleet pellets I've ever been in.  But it was sleet, and a surprise.  The southeast ridge is a fly in the ointment, and it's ebb and flow maybe be the trigger for something, as long as we hang out on the edge of sorta close to enough cold, and wet, but we may not have much warning.  Surprise is good, lol.  Embracing, joy filling...but we have to guard against wanting more, if we get one   Yeah, sure, like that will happen.  Can't eat just one. 

If we get some blocking where the Vikings settled, and a big western ridge, we can start to play spot the storm that will hit And maybe two.   Otherwise we'll have to rely on surprise city.  T

[burgertime]

Euro is a little slower than the GFS but you can really see the cold air pushing west to east in the later frames.  

[Winterhawk]

Here ya go Carver's

 

Phases 4, 5, & 6 are the worst/warmest anomolies for Eastern US in Dec, Jan, & Feb..

 

 

[Carvers Gap]

Here ya go Carver's

 

Thanks, Southern Track!  Went to the CLIVAR and found their images as well which are considered to be experimental.  Does anyone know the difference other than what is printed on the pages for both the "normal" MJO page and the CLIVAR site?  The CLIVAR image moves the MJO into phase 8...which would not be bad.

[Carvers Gap]

Phases 4, 5, & 6 are the worst/warmest anomolies for Eastern US in Dec, Jan, & Feb..

 

 

mjo_phases.jpg

 

That is a great graphic for interpreting the MJO.  Saw that as well.  What I am trying to do is take the MJO from each model and compare it to the CPC teleconnector ensembles and then compare it to the opertional runs of each model to see if the long term GFS might have some credence....

[griteater]

12z Euro -PNA is maxed out on Allan's chart

[nrhardin]

Phases 4, 5, & 6 are the worst/warmest anomolies for Eastern US in Dec, Jan, & Feb..

 

 

mjo_phases.jpg

 

While I don't know the exact statistics used for these composites, I would like to point out that Phases 4-6 also contain the lowest significance values for the temperature anomalies in the SE. Certainly we'd like to be in phases 1 or 2, but my point is that it may not be so bad as upon initial glance.

[Carvers Gap]

12z Euro -PNA is maxed out on Allan's chart

 

Days 7-10 look like a -PNA for sure on the Euro.  Still similar to the GFS w/ a broad trough over the western 2/3 of the country with cold air sliding east.  The models don't look that far apart.  What will be interesting to watch is if the -PNA sets up shop or is transient.

[griteater]

12z GFS Ens builds abundant high latitude ridging across the arctic (-AO) in the 8-12 day range, with cold focused out west.

[burgertime]

12z Euro -PNA is maxed out on Allan's chart

It's amazing how the op GFS had the PNA off the charts positive and now has it more around neutral. It seemed to be the run not to catch on.

Sent from my EVO using Tapatalk 2

[Jon]

With the MJO moving through those phases through the 17th of the month isn't surprising, so I'd agree with what's being modeled there. Lets hope it trends to a more favorable MJO phase as it gets closer to mid month and the latter half of Jan. I really think the next time we'll see another chance for a good event is the 20th on. Lets get through this warm period and see how we look for the rest of winter.

[packbacker]

Amazing warmth showing up next week on the Euro for the SE, starting next Tuesday with temps in the 50-60's and building by the end of the run with highs in the 70's.  It actually has some lows at nighttime in the 50/60's.  It's going to be great when the weather turns cold and snow down the road.

 

[Bevo]

Believe it when I see it.

 

The snow or the heat?

 

I would tend to lean toward somewhat of a warm snap - it's not uncommon, and given the speed of the PAC and no blocking help, it makes sense to go with a progressive and milder prog in the coming weeks.  How warm is still a question, at least for me, because I haven't had the displeasure many have had with being so warm.  Maybe it's geography or whatever, but it just didn't get as warm as progged for me most of December.

 

It remains to be seen if guidance is still struggling with a hyper active flow - personally, I'm not banking on the late January cold if that flow does not slow down.