January Pattern and Storm Discussion

[packbacker]

He seems confident that toward the second half of the month, the PV will break down, the stratospheric warming will apply, the blocking will set up, and the AO will tank leading the cold to get dislodged from the pole.  However he still doesn't know if that means getting it to the east or not.  I do not understand from his post what needs to be done to get it east.  -EPO? +PNA?  Good MJO levels?  We just can's seem to get everything together. 

 

Well that's just it, we don't know how the pacific is going to act, if it's like December than we are screwed (+EPO), if it's mediocre and we get strong blocking we have a chance.  I know it's very "normal" to not get snow in the SE in December but you have to look at the fact that we had good blocking and it was very warm (top 10 ever warmest).  For me, I am model hugging the CFS :-).  I wouldn't be shocked if the Euro Weeklies flip tomorrow back to end of January winter returning.

[franklin NCwx]

Well that's just it, we don't know how the pacific is going to act, if it's like December than we are screwed (+EPO), if it's mediocre and we get strong blocking we have a chance.  I know it's very "normal" to not get snow in the SE in December but you have to look at the fact that we had good blocking and it was very warm (top 10 ever warmest).  For me, I am model hugging the CFS :-).  I wouldn't be shocked if the Euro Weeklies flip tomorrow back to end of January winter returning.

It was just 10 days ago when the euro weekilies looked great. It has been flipping on weeks 3 and 4 since November.

[packbacker]

Yea that to me looked extremely close. The southern energy is juiced up and that northern energy is diving. I think though it needs to make the phase just west of the Mississippi? Could be wrong on that though. 

 

Yeah, 6z GFS ens members had some weak lows off the coast, day 5, throws back some rain.

[franklin NCwx]

Yea that to me looked extremely close. The southern energy is juiced up and that northern energy is diving. I think though it needs to make the phase just west of the Mississippi? Could be wrong on that though. 

It's close, I think the northern stream would drop in and phase if it went out 6 more hours. We are talking about the 84 hour nam. We will see what the other 12z models show.

[packbacker]

It was just 10 days ago when the euro weekilies looked great. It has been flipping on weeks 3 and 4 since November.

Agreed, last Thursday they looked good for end of January flip.  Maybe the flip happens January 25th instead of the 20th, maybe that's why the weeklies looked so bad.

[Cold Rain]

<blockquote class='ipsBlockquote'data-author="burgertime" data-cid="1977085" data-time="1357138487"><p>

Yea that to me looked extremely close. The southern energy is juiced up and that northern energy is diving. I think though it needs to make the phase just west of the Mississippi? Could be wrong on that though.</p></blockquote>

You don't want that thing phasing west of MS unless you want a big rainstorm. Let that puppy phase over Southeast GA and run up the coast, and then we'll be talking...

The Nam at face value is about to be a soaking rain for most east of the Apps. That thing's gonna come running up out of the Gulf and drench us.

And Brick, just stop. You already got the trophy, man.

[burgertime]

<blockquote class='ipsBlockquote'data-author="burgertime" data-cid="1977085" data-time="1357138487"><p>

Yea that to me looked extremely close. The southern energy is juiced up and that northern energy is diving. I think though it needs to make the phase just west of the Mississippi? Could be wrong on that though.</p></blockquote>

You don't want that thing phasing west of MS unless you want a big rainstorm. Let that puppy phase over Southeast GA and run up the coast, and then we'll be talking...

The Nam at face value is about to be a soaking rain for most east of the Apps. That thing's gonna come running up out of the Gulf and drench us.

And Brick, just stop. You already got the trophy, man.

 

Ah OK. For some reason I thought you wanted it phasing a little west. Good to know what to look for now. In the NAM's defense it has been showing this for awhile. Of course with both pieces of energy things change on a dime and when you're relying on perfect timing it probably won't happen. 

[SnowNiner]

Well that's just it, we don't know how the pacific is going to act, if it's like December than we are screwed (+EPO), if it's mediocre and we get strong blocking we have a chance.  I know it's very "normal" to not get snow in the SE in December but you have to look at the fact that we had good blocking and it was very warm (top 10 ever warmest).  For me, I am model hugging the CFS :-).  I wouldn't be shocked if the Euro Weeklies flip tomorrow back to end of January winter returning.

 

 

This is probably just me being weeniefied, but I agree.  The GFS has suprising been fairly good this fall/winter picking up longer range patterns.  It did so with the west based blocking in December as well as the higher PNA in late December....it just didn't yeild us anything.  The GFS is showing a shift back to a cooler regime and I'm going to hug that hard and not let go (I don't care if it's biased).  This agrees with the CFS point of view.  The EURO has been not so great with long range patterns IMO, and I think the same is holding true for the 10 day period.  I would assume the EURO weeklies are based on much of the EURO data, I guess we'll see. 

 

Now if the CFS goes warm, I don't know what to do.  Unicorn SSW hunting anyone?

[jmundie]

NAM has a storm for the midsouth

CMC has a storm for the mid south

6z GFS ensembles have the storm.

I love these sneaky threats. I was just getting bummed about having to wait 10+ days for something to pay attention to

[Cold Rain]

<blockquote class='ipsBlockquote'data-author="burgertime" data-cid="1977101" data-time="1357139291"><p>

Ah OK. For some reason I thought you wanted it phasing a little west. Good to know what to look for now. In the NAM's defense it has been showing this for awhile. Of course with both pieces of energy things change on a dime and when you're relying on perfect timing it probably won't happen.</p></blockquote>

 

Yeah, it's kind of tricky, and I don't know if there's a really great rule of thumb for it, as phasing energy can look different, depending on several factors. One thing you can usually count on though, if it phases too soon and too far west of you or north of you, the system will usually start to head north and east. Lately, it seems like we've been on the east of all of these systems and have gotten rain or showers.

[Brick Tamland]

I don't think you have any ACTUAL data to back up your claim outside of things you've heard. Feel free to prove it with the data if you have it. 

 

Not sure there is actual data that shows how often the models were wrong about a snow storm here 10 days out. But people have been on these boards long enough to know that it is more often wrong than not when it is that far out versus when it shows a warm up 10 days away. It's just that way.

[burgertime]

Not sure there is actual data that shows how often the models were wrong about a snow storm here 10 days out. But people have been on these boards long enough to know that it is more often wrong than not when it is that far out versus when it shows a warm up 10 days away. It's just that way.

 

  that's because so much more has to go into getting a snow storm. First you don't even really bother looking at the storms you want to look at the pattern. Is it conducive to snow if so then it's all about just waiting for the right puzzle pieces to fit.  That said, the question is not about snow right now it's about it showing a cold look. Has it been wrong when it shows a big torchy look? You bet. In fact I can almost bet it's wrong the same amount of times it's wrong when it shows the US in the freezer.  Anytime it shows an extreme you can bet it won't be as extreme as it shows. You truly are a spectacle to behold. 

[burgertime]

12z GFS really has that vort out west energized @60 as it's trekking through TX. Let's see where this run goes. Nothing to keep the energy south that northern energy is too far behind it. It takes a sharp north turn at OK. 

[burgertime]

12z was pretty close to something big. If only we some energy in the south to really turn it into something huge. 

[packbacker]

12z was pretty close to something big. If only we some energy in the south to really turn it into something huge. 

 

Well the southern energy was there, the PV starts to lift north and it out races the northern energy.  This is really just awful timing and bad luck, if the PV stays put and the southern stream tracked east the northern energy could have caught it and maybe something could have happened.  0z Euro was simliar.

 

[Poimen]

well, I think we can all agree that there is zero chance of wintry weather the next 10 days. The 12z GFS does continue to bring in a cold shot around day 10 but does so without the benefit of a -NAO. So, if true it is unclear if it will be a brief shot.

[packbacker]

well, I think we can all agree that there is zero chance of wintry weather the next 10 days. The 12z GFS does continue to bring in a cold shot around day 10 but does so without the benefit of a -NAO. So, if true it is unclear if it will be a brief shot.

 

I wouldn't say 0%, maybe 10%, which isn't that great either.  This SW and northern stream energy on day 3-4 could potentially time out just perfectly and be far enough south to give the foothills/mtns something, with cold air retreating it's going to be very tough.  Not being argumentative, but it's a small chance.

 

If I was in the MA/NE I would be curious if I could get lucky. 

[Poimen]

I wouldn't say 0%, maybe 10%, which isn't that great either.  This SW and northern stream energy on day 3-4 could potentially time out just perfectly and be far enough south to give the foothills/mtns something, with cold air retreating it's going to be very tough.  Not being argumentative, but it's a small chance.

 

If I was in the MA/NE I would be curious if I could get lucky. 

 

Yeah, I understand. Maybe a better term is "virtually zero."

[burgertime]

well, I think we can all agree that there is zero chance of wintry weather the next 10 days. The 12z GFS does continue to bring in a cold shot around day 10 but does so without the benefit of a -NAO. So, if true it is unclear if it will be a brief shot.

 

Looking at the GFS it could be doing this because the PNA has been going off the charts positive on pretty much every run of the OP. ENS is pretty much opposite with it going negative. 

[Bevo]

I wouldn't say 0%, maybe 10%, which isn't that great either.  This SW and northern stream energy on day 3-4 could potentially time out just perfectly and be far enough south to give the foothills/mtns something, with cold air retreating it's going to be very tough.  Not being argumentative, but it's a small chance.

 

If I was in the MA/NE I would be curious if I could get lucky. 

 

 

Yeah, I understand. Maybe a better term is "virtually zero."

 

In all honesty, I just don't see anything worth progging a chance for us.  But, I also do not trust models outside the 48-72 hour window - I am a belligerent scrooge that way.

[dsaur]

Not sure there is actual data that shows how often the models were wrong about a snow storm here 10 days out. But people have been on these boards long enough to know that it is more often wrong than not when it is that far out versus when it shows a warm up 10 days away. It's just that way.

 

The question is how often do the models show virtual snow, and how often do we get virtual snow?  As opposed to how often the models show real snow, and how often we get real snow.

  Now, in summer the models predict real heat, and we usually, by a great percentage we get real heat.  In conclusion you get real heat in summer, but virtual snow in winter, virtually all the time.

  So, by extrapolaton you could conclude if the models show real heat in winter, you'll get real heat.  T

[FallsLake]

What day to you guys think the "warm snap" will start & end? looking at the GFS it looks to me to start on day 7. Looking past that it looks to end on day 10. A four day warm snap doesn't seem that bad; if we can believe the GFS at day 10.

[franklin NCwx]

What day to you guys think the "warm snap" will start & end? looking at the GFS it looks to me to start on day 7. Looking past that it looks to end on day 10. A four day warm snap doesn't seem that bad; if we can believe the GFS at day 10.

 

The ensembles are warmer. Next week is going to be above and I think the first half of the following week will be too.

[tonysc]

The question is how often do the models show virtual snow, and how often do we get virtual snow?  As opposed to how often the models show real snow, and how often we get real snow.

  Now, in summer the models predict real heat, and we usually, by a great percentage we get real heat.  In conclusion you get real heat in summer, but virtual snow in winter, virtually all the time.

  So, by extrapolaton you could conclude if the models show real heat in winter, you'll get real heat.  T

 

For some reason that actually made sense...LOL.

[packbacker]

What day to you guys think the "warm snap" will start & end? looking at the GFS it looks to me to start on day 7. Looking past that it looks to end on day 10. A four day warm snap doesn't seem that bad; if we can believe the GFS at day 10.

 

Well we can't, the GFS has stunk all winter in the day 7+ range, ask GaWx....all I know is that next week is going to be delightful.  Last winter was the first time that I remember where my grass actually grew in January and I had to cut it, we might get that chance this winter....

 

[beanskip]

I've seen worse looking Euro Day 10 maps -- signs of a +PNA popping. Some very east based Greenland blocking. -AO appears to be forming.

 

GFS persistent with cold outbreak in the Day 10-14 range (was day 12-16 range but it's actually getting closer).

 

Going to be a LONNNNNGGGGG 10 days to get there though, assuming it doesn't turn out to be a mirage.

[burgertime]

Yea Euo on the SFC didn't look bad at 240 at all. Gotta see if it holds and then how long it holds.

[Poimen]

Taken verbatim, the 12Z EURO at 240 hours has a developing LP near the TX Panhandle/SE CO...which probably ends up being a lakes cutter days 11-12, given the set up. If true...it's probably day 13 before a significant cool down occurs in the SE and fits nicely with the idea of the GFS being too quick with the cold in the extended range. But of course this is all dependent on the model being correct at 240 hours...

 

[franklin NCwx]

Where are all the Tenn posters?

[tnweathernut]

Where are all the Tenn posters?

 

Trust me, we are here..................but we know better than to get excited about the 18z NAM at hour 84.  That said, I have seen events coming on the tail end of a pattern breakdown so I suppose it "could" happen.  Just not going to get excited about it.  Thanks for sharing Franklin.