Bevo Posted January 2, 2013 Share Posted January 2, 2013 Your proving my point for me, this past December was warmer than last December, top 10 warmest, which is ahead of last winter which was a torch. In fact 2012 was one of the hottest years on record. For the majority of the east December was a major torch, I think you have forgotten what it's suppose to feel like in a "normal" December. Yeah pack - you know I'm not "targeting" you here, but I'm pretty sure my 37 year memory isn't too far off. I can certainly believe there's a vast difference between your location and mine. I have no problem with any of the statements about the warmth, But I do take issue with someone telling me that I'm wrong about my area and what is happening here (I'm not saying you did that). Again, if I didn't read these forums, etc...I would not be aware of the oft referenced torches and tanning beds. Nothing about my winter has seemed that off kilter so far. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted January 2, 2013 Share Posted January 2, 2013 I think what may be confusing some is that we have averaged pretty close to normal overall since Dec. 21. Also, Nov. was slightly below normal. However, 12/1-20 was clearly well above normal overall. At least in Atlanta it has been this way. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
metalicwx366 Posted January 2, 2013 Share Posted January 2, 2013 <blockquote class='ipsBlockquote'data-author="snowman22" data-cid="1976788" data-time="1357099331"><p> Baby steps ya'll baby steps, we are going to get snow this winter, just wait. It already is better than last year's winter, this time last year we had NO snow cover south of the Great Lakes.</p></blockquote> Most of that snowcover will be erased within 7 days which puts us near last year in terms of snowcover so no baby steps in the favor of a great winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jburns Posted January 2, 2013 Share Posted January 2, 2013 <blockquote class='ipsBlockquote'data-author="calculus1" data-cid="1976719" data-time="1357095874"><p>Worse for whom? I'm with Bevo on this. (Sorry to drag you into my argument if you have no desire to be there, Bevo, but I'm looking for an ally somewhere!) I've seen lots of talk about December having been a torch. Not for me! 44.8 F was my mean temp for the month of December 2012 compared to 44.4 F in December 2011. Big whoop! Maybe some micro-climates have been warmer than years past, but there are others that are just the same, or I bet we could even find some that were cooler. December felt quite average to me. I've enjoyed the month. Lots of cool, cloudy days sprinkled with a few cold ones. I'm looking forward to what January will bring. Who knows? Perhaps our next snowstorm is just around the corner. I put very little faith in long range forecasts (for warm or cold), but I continue to enjoy the ride.</p></blockquote> Atlanta was 5.8 above average in Dec compared to 5.1 above average last Dec.... Any temps above last winter can't be good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
metalicwx366 Posted January 2, 2013 Share Posted January 2, 2013 <blockquote class='ipsBlockquote'data-author="jburns" data-cid="1976816" data-time="1357100972"><p> Any temps above last winter can't be good.</p></blockquote> Exactly! What world is he in? 5.8 above vs 5.1 lol. Torch to me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bevo Posted January 2, 2013 Share Posted January 2, 2013 I think what may be confusing some is that we have averaged pretty close to normal overall since Dec. 21. Also, Nov. was chilly. However, 12/1-20 was clearly well above normal overall. At least in Atlanta it has been this way. I don't think anyone is arguing to the contrary about ATL temps. Myself and others are simply stating the reality of our own environments that do not line up with the supposed torching. I believe the real problem lies in the different perspectives of what constitutes a torch in the first place. I have not been scoured by heat. Not even close to a torch. In my opinion, torching implies major heat, and therefore doesn't apply to me. Maybe the term "torch" holds too much hyperbole: "Over 60 automobiles were warmed in last nights riots.", said no one, ever. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowless in Carrollton Posted January 2, 2013 Share Posted January 2, 2013 <blockquote class='ipsBlockquote'data-author="jburns" data-cid="1976816" data-time="1357100972"><p> Any temps above last winter can't be good.</p></blockquote> Exactly ! Last winter was the worst winter ever and this winter has been even worse in terms of temps. Almost unthinkable that a winter could be worse than last winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted January 2, 2013 Share Posted January 2, 2013 The 0Z Goofy is really going to test a lot of people. It is still another chilly Goofy run beyond day 10. Goofy is setting itself up to either badly fail or score a major coup. Its cold bias makes me sooo wary. One of these days it will score when many are least expecting it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
calculus1 Posted January 2, 2013 Share Posted January 2, 2013 The 0Z Goofy is really going to test a lot of people. It is still another chilly Goofy run beyond day 10. Goofy is setting itself up to either badly fail or score a major coup. Its cold bias makes me sooo wary. One of these days it will score when many are least expecting it. I'm not sure what you mean by "testing people." I won't hitch my wagon to the 00Z GFS and be heartbroken if it fails to verify, nor will I be unable to control myself if it comes to pass. Moderation is a good thing. However, this run of the GFS does continue to have a nice cold look in the future. Here's the 850s over North America at hour 252. Like 18Z, the whole CONUS is below 0 C save a few states: this time it's Florida, California, Oregon, and Washington that miss out on the party. Looks great! Who knows whether it's right? But, it's fun to look at one possibility for the future. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted January 2, 2013 Share Posted January 2, 2013 Well one positive note (if you consider it positive) is that the GooFuS is bringing the colder air closer and closer with each run. At least it's not stuck out in hr 300 at every run. If Euro looks anything like the GFS @240 the GFS is on to something. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted January 2, 2013 Share Posted January 2, 2013 <blockquote class='ipsBlockquote'data-author="jburns" data-cid="1976816" data-time="1357100972"><p>Any temps above last winter can't be good.</p></blockquote> Exactly ! Last winter was the worst winter ever and this winter has been even worse in terms of temps. Almost unthinkable that a winter could be worse than last winter. Can we please stop this. People in the SE have already seen flurries. Already it's better than last year. The majority of the upper half of the CONUS has snow cover. The debate should end right there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bevo Posted January 2, 2013 Share Posted January 2, 2013 Can we please stop this. People in the SE have already seen flurries. Already it's better than last year. The majority of the upper half of the CONUS has snow cover. The debate should end right there. Unfortunately it probably won't. I had sleet and a few flakes fall this past week (upstate SC) - plus I've enjoyed the rain and cool temps. But that is discarded. And Calc...you don't need an ally. There's no reason to fear the reapers roaming these forums. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted January 2, 2013 Share Posted January 2, 2013 The 0Z GEFS seems to be agreeing wih the 0Z Goofy that the end of this upcoming warmer than normal period would be by day 10 or so. We'll see. Will the mild period actually be that shortlived (~ one week)? We'll see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted January 2, 2013 Share Posted January 2, 2013 Euro didn't look too far off from the GFS @240. It had a big storm coming into the plains looking it was cutting to the lakes with cold coming in behind it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HKY_WX Posted January 2, 2013 Share Posted January 2, 2013 CFS continues to show huge blocking setting up in the next few weeks over the poles. I think when you combine this w/ the likelihood the AO is going to drop again and a possible strat' warming event, the last half of Jan and into february will be cold. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GreensboroWx Posted January 2, 2013 Share Posted January 2, 2013 Man, the mood of this place flips/flops around like a fish out of water. Since mid Dec the SE has had a very normal winter...it's just the timing hasn't been right for a good winter storm. Anyway, it appears the warmer than normal weather is going to be short lived and if the CFS is right, then VERY cold weather is on tap later this month. Honestly, it's hard to trust the models much beyond 180hrs, whether is shows cold OR warmth. How has the CFS been verifying? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted January 2, 2013 Share Posted January 2, 2013 HM just posted some good stuff in the Philly Longe range thread. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bingcrosbyb Posted January 2, 2013 Share Posted January 2, 2013 The models have consistently shown cold in the 10-14 day period during the past 3-4 winters only to moderate back to normal. What is to make me think this is any different? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted January 2, 2013 Share Posted January 2, 2013 Man, the mood of this place flips/flops around like a fish out of water. Since mid Dec the SE has had a very normal winter...it's just the timing hasn't been right for a good winter storm. Anyway, it appears the warmer than normal weather is going to be short lived and if the CFS is right, then VERY cold weather is on tap later this month. Honestly, it's hard to trust the models much beyond 180hrs, whether is shows cold OR warmth. How has the CFS been verifying? It's been doing pretty good from what I can tell. It kind of flips and flops a little too though but usually that seems like hiccups in the system like with anything else. Isn't it pretty new? Not sure if it has enough data for real verification scores. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GreensboroWx Posted January 2, 2013 Share Posted January 2, 2013 The models have consistently shown cold in the 10-14 day period during the past 3-4 winters only to moderate back to normal. What is to make me think this is any different? Why can't the opposite be true too....say, it shows a big warm up, but trends back to "normal??" I would caution any model which shows extremes of cold or WARM...it can go both ways. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted January 2, 2013 Share Posted January 2, 2013 I don't think anyone is arguing to the contrary about ATL temps. Myself and others are simply stating the reality of our own environments that do not line up with the supposed torching. I believe the real problem lies in the different perspectives of what constitutes a torch in the first place. I have not been scoured by heat. Not even close to a torch. In my opinion, torching implies major heat, and therefore doesn't apply to me. Maybe the term "torch" holds too much hyperbole: "Over 60 automobiles were warmed in last nights riots.", said no one, ever. I don't think most people are saying a torch is temps in the 70s and 80s in December, but that for the most part things have been above normal. Allan Huffman just said today in his blog that December was one of the warmest Decembers on record. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowNiner Posted January 2, 2013 Share Posted January 2, 2013 Man, the mood of this place flips/flops around like a fish out of water. Since mid Dec the SE has had a very normal winter...it's just the timing hasn't been right for a good winter storm. Anyway, it appears the warmer than normal weather is going to be short lived and if the CFS is right, then VERY cold weather is on tap later this month. Honestly, it's hard to trust the models much beyond 180hrs, whether is shows cold OR warmth. How has the CFS been verifying? Cats and dogs, living together....mass hysteria!! This really has been pretty par for the course so far this year (minus the first 2 weeks of Dec) IMO. I remember in the beginning of the season the discussion was that the CFS nailed December's warmth in November and was very accurate with the heat waves through the summer; If I recall correctly. Or was that the japanese model Robert was analyzing? I think the biggest reaction has been to the EURO weeklies and their torch readings for the month. If they flip and line back up with the CFS I'll be a lot more optimistic about the coming weeks.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted January 2, 2013 Share Posted January 2, 2013 The models have consistently shown cold in the 10-14 day period during the past 3-4 winters only to moderate back to normal. What is to make me think this is any different? Why can't the opposite be true too....say, it shows a big warm up, but trends back to "normal??" I would caution any model which shows extremes of cold or WARM...it can go both ways. I wish that were the case, but for some reason the opposite usually isn't true . It just seems the models have a real hard time with predicting cold and snow around here. Too much factors to compute for everything to work out right I suspect. But seeing a warm up is easier. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted January 2, 2013 Share Posted January 2, 2013 I wish that were the case, but for some reason the opposite usually isn't true . It just seems the models have a real hard time with predicting cold and snow around here. Too much factors to compute for everything to work out right I suspect. But seeing a warm up is easier. How are you not 5 posted yet? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted January 2, 2013 Share Posted January 2, 2013 How are you not 5 posted yet? You don't think that is true? How many times has a model said 10 days out cold and snow was coming but it didn't happen versus seeing a warm up coming and it instead being colder? Like the other poster said, the models have constantly shown a snow storm around here 10 days out in the past, and it might happen 1 out of 10 times. But if it shows warm and sunny, it usually happens more often than not. It's just easier for the models to see that because so many things have to go right to get snow around here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jmundie Posted January 2, 2013 Share Posted January 2, 2013 One thing I've noticed this winter is that at 850 - things just aren't that cold. We're getting pretty decent 2m temps, despite warmer 850s. I don't know why that is - but its certainly interesting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowNiner Posted January 2, 2013 Share Posted January 2, 2013 HM just posted some good stuff in the Philly Longe range thread. He seems confident that toward the second half of the month, the PV will break down, the stratospheric warming will apply, the blocking will set up, and the AO will tank leading the cold to get dislodged from the pole. However he still doesn't know if that means getting it to the east or not. I do not understand from his post what needs to be done to get it east. -EPO? +PNA? Good MJO levels? We just can's seem to get everything together. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted January 2, 2013 Share Posted January 2, 2013 How are you not 5 posted yet? What's the 12z nam up to today? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted January 2, 2013 Share Posted January 2, 2013 You don't think that is true? How many times has a model said 10 days out cold and snow was coming but it didn't happen versus seeing a warm up coming and it instead being colder? Like the other poster said, the models have constantly shown a snow storm around here 10 days out in the past, and it might happen 1 out of 10 times. But if it shows warm and sunny, it usually happens more often than not. It's just easier for the models to see that because so many things have to go right to get snow around here. I don't think you have any ACTUAL data to back up your claim outside of things you've heard. Feel free to prove it with the data if you have it. NAM is actually still pretty close to something @84 that northern energy is just too slow though coming in on the back side. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted January 2, 2013 Share Posted January 2, 2013 What's the 12z nam up to today? Yea that to me looked extremely close. The southern energy is juiced up and that northern energy is diving. I think though it needs to make the phase just west of the Mississippi? Could be wrong on that though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.