January Pattern and Storm Discussion

[calculus1]

The 18Z GFS shows some pretty cold temperatures in the long-run after a brief warm-up next week.  Here are the 850 temps out at hour 288.  Pretty much the entire country (save Florida, California, and Arizona) have 850 temps below freezing.  And the focus of this cold air is on the eastern side of the CONUS.  That's some arctic chill:

 

http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/gfs/18zgfs850mbTSLPNA288.html

[Cold Rain]

<blockquote class='ipsBlockquote'data-author="calculus1" data-cid="1976418" data-time="1357081120"><p>

The 18Z GFS shows some pretty cold temperatures in the long-run after a brief warm-up next week. Here are the 850 temps out at hour 288. Pretty much the entire country (save Florida, California, and Arizona) have 850 temps below freezing. And the focus of this cold air is on the eastern side of the CONUS. That's some arctic chill:<br />

<br />

<a href='http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/gfs/18zgfs850mbTSLPNA288.html'>http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/gfs/18zgfs850mbTSLPNA288.html</a></p></blockquote>

I honestly think we'll get cold again mid-month. I don't care what any weeklies or anything else says. We will have a winter. I really believe that.

[NCSNOW]

Nice golfing weather next week...

In the rain most likely. That type of flow would probably spit shortwave after shrotwave.

[burgertime]

Nice golfing weather next week...

In the rain most likely. That type of flow would probably spit shortwave after shrotwave.

 

On the surface it looks like it is supposed to.

 

The good thing about the GFS ENS is that it has kept the cold look and better yet it seems to move itcloser by six hours. We shall see I guess.

[POWERSTROKE]

The 18Z GFS shows some pretty cold temperatures in the long-run after a brief warm-up next week. Here are the 850 temps out at hour 288. Pretty much the entire country (save Florida, California, and Arizona) have 850 temps below freezing. And the focus of this cold air is on the eastern side of the CONUS. That's some arctic chill:

http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/gfs/18zgfs850mbTSLPNA288.html

But hasnt that been what gfs has been saying all winter? Seems like we always see it in the LR but never verifies

[WilkesboroDude]

Freezing drizzle and snowflakes in the forecast Wednesday night into Thursday for the northern foothills...

[burgertime]

But hasnt that been what gfs has been saying all winter? Seems like we always see it in the LR but never verifies

I think people misrepresent the GFS a lot. If you think of how models work it just makes calculations based on what it sees. When it looks out in the LR it crunches these numbers so using very limited data to crunch it puts out a solution. Of course the solution is going to be on one extreme side or the other. This is why people should also not put too much stock into any LR solution be it very good or very bad. I remember in the deep freeze of Jan 10 it still didn't get as cold as the LR had it when it finally came and that was a super cold arctic airmass. The GFS said it would get cold. It's been in the 40's today with rain. I would say for many today has been a cold day. In fact the last few days have been cold. We have had cold days this last week just not in the 30's. In fact the foothills saw sleet/flurries in December. Based on that the GFS was at least correct once on cool down. Was it as cold? No. Will we hit the 70's in Jan because the Euro weeklies have it? Probably not. Might it be above average? That's probably more likely, just like it's more likely it won't be in single digits for lows here  but more likely in the 20's or 30's for lows. 

[GaWx]

But hasnt that been what gfs has been saying all winter? Seems like we always see it in the LR but never verifies

Powerstroke,

Excellent post! I'm glad someone else is mentioning this. The colder runs of the GFS during the 6-15 day period have rarely verified as cold as they forecasted in the SE US whereas their warmer ones have more often verified. So, there has been a bit of a cold bias. This goes at least as far back as Oct., when two runs predicted KATL would tie the alltime record Oct. low of 28. KATL's coldest season to date is STILL only down to 30!

Lesson from this: take the cold SE GFS runs with a huge grain until they start verifying better, are more consistent, and until there's better agreement with the Euro. Also, non-Nino warm Dec. analogs suggest that Jan. as a whole will very likely not be cold relative to normal. This gives me even more reason to take the cold GFS runs with a grain.

[packbacker]

Wow, already punting January on January 1st. Lets see what the weeklies show on Thursday. I think the CFS has been doing OK when looking back. I know the Euro weeklies is the top scoring.

I will say this, people have been saying this winter is not like last winter, well so far it's worse temp wise. And if Jan is warm as the Euro suggest than Jan maybe be worse than last year. I don't think it will be though.

[Nraleigh]

Wow, already punting January on January 1st. Lets see what the weeklies show on Thursday. I think the CFS has been doing OK when looking back. I know the Euro weeklies is the top scoring.

I will say this, people have been saying this winter is not like last winter, well so far it's worse temp wise. And if Jan is warm as the Euro suggest than Jan maybe be worse than last year. I don't think it will be though.

JB said today he is very concerned because Euro weeklies, which are the best, say winter is over for most of the country, especially the East. He said if this is correct then his winter forecast is blown. He said when he saw this last night, it caused him to have the worst New Year's Eve in his life. He is very concerned now.

[packbacker]

JB said today he is very concerned because Euro weeklies, which are the best, say winter is over for most of the country, especially the East. He said if this is correct then his winter forecast is blown. He said when he saw this last night, it caused him to have the worst New Year's Eve in his life. He is very concerned now.

Yeah, I read his blog, never seem him that pessimistic, the weeklies did look bad, but last Thursday they agreed with the CFS on the Jan 20th flip, if the Euro stays consistent this Thursday with warmth than its cause for concern.

[rduwx]

As much as I love snow, I hate the severe cold and dry patterns just as much.  I'll take my chances w/ temps averaging above normal for the month.  You never know, someone in the SE could time one perfect.

[GaWx]

JB said today he is very concerned because Euro weeklies, which are the best, say winter is over for most of the country, especially the East. He said if this is correct then his winter forecast is blown. He said when he saw this last night, it caused him to have the worst New Year's Eve in his life. He is very concerned now.

There's no doubt about the Euro weeklies being quite warm for much of the US. So, I feel JB's pain since his overall cold winter forecast has little chance to verify now. However, the problem with his statement is that the Euro weeklies go out only to 1/27! So, even if we assumed they were going to verify well, how can one state that the weeklies say that winter is over?

Personally, although I'm heavily leaning toward a Jan. that isn't cold overall, based on warm Dec. analogs, I'm also optimistic about the best winter wx of the season by far for the SE US occurring between late Jan. and Mar. based on those same analogs. We'll see!

[burgertime]

Powerstroke,

Excellent post! I'm glad someone else is mentioning this. The colder runs of the GFS during the 6-15 day period have rarely verified as cold as they forecasted in the SE US whereas their warmer ones have more often verified. So, there has been a bit of a cold bias. This goes at least as far back as Oct., when two runs predicted KATL would tie the alltime record Oct. low of 28. KATL's coldest season to date is STILL only down to 30!

Lesson from this: take the cold SE GFS runs with a huge grain until they start verifying better, are more consistent, and until there's better agreement with the Euro. Also, non-Nino warm Dec. analogs suggest that Jan. as a whole will very likely not be cold relative to normal. This gives me even more reason to take the cold GFS runs with a grain.

 

 

I'm not trying to cause consternation or anything but seriously want to know. When have they ever verified in the LR to be as cold as they usually show? I don't take them seriously but have they really been that bad with signifying a change in the temps to that of colder compared to years past out to say 384 hours? Seems to me since I've been following them they always go extreme one way or another and usually fall to just slightly above or below normal when it's all said and done.   

[Brick Tamland]

I know folks are trying to stay optimistic, but how much longer are we going to keep pushing back winter? Yes, the pattern is different, but all it is now is wetter. It's still not winter. And it looks like after this week it's going to be warmer and dryer. Just wondering what happened to the winter that most said was going to be rocking at the beginning of December.

[POWERSTROKE]

I'm not trying to cause consternation or anything but seriously want to know. When have they ever verified in the LR to be as cold as they usually show? I don't take them seriously but have they really been that bad with signifying a change in the temps to that of colder compared to years past out to say 384 hours? Seems to me since I've been following them they always go extreme one way or another and usually fall to just slightly above or below normal when it's all said and done.

They havent been close this year. Its not time to grasp at straws. However the future not looking good if models are even close to being right based on what they showing as of now. Sometimes we have to accrpt it and be realistic about it

[Cold Rain]

The GFS has a cold bias in the LR. That's just part of what you get, and should expect, with that model.

Also, if the Euro Weeklies caused JB to have the worst New Years Eve of his life, then he needs to take a break from weather. I expect he is exaggerating when he says that, if that's what he said. I like reading his thoughts and analysis, but he does tend to get a little extreme....kind of like the GFS and its cold bias....use it, but also be aware of what you're getting.

[Brick Tamland]

<blockquote class='ipsBlockquote'data-author="POWERSTROKE" data-cid="1976693" data-time="1357094395"><p>

They havent been close this year. Its not time to grasp at straws. However the future not looking good if models are even close to being right based on what they showing as of now. Sometimes we have to accrpt it and be realistic about it</p></blockquote>

Makes you wonder how much we can trust the models at all now. What gets me is they did great seeing Sandy so far in advance. But when it comes to snow around here they don't seem to have a clue. But if they see it being sunny and warm 10 days out you can bet it will happen.

[burgertime]

In actual weather related news the 84 hour NAM which equally bad is interesting at 5h. It renergizes that southern vort and has it moving east with some northern energy screaming south. Hard to tell if it would phase but it looks promising. 

[calculus1]

Wow, already punting January on January 1st. Lets see what the weeklies show on Thursday. I think the CFS has been doing OK when looking back. I know the Euro weeklies is the top scoring.

I will say this, people have been saying this winter is not like last winter, well so far it's worse temp wise. And if Jan is warm as the Euro suggest than Jan maybe be worse than last year. I don't think it will be though.

 

 

Worse for whom?  I'm with Bevo on this.  (Sorry to drag you into my argument if you have no desire to be there, Bevo, but I'm looking for an ally somewhere!)  I've seen lots of talk about December having been a torch.  Not for me!  44.8 F was my mean temp for the month of December 2012 compared to 44.4 F in December 2011.  Big whoop!  Maybe some micro-climates have been warmer than years past, but there are others that are just the same, or I bet we could even find some that were cooler.  December felt quite average to me.  I've enjoyed the month.  Lots of cool, cloudy days sprinkled with a few cold ones.  I'm looking forward to what January will bring.  Who knows?  Perhaps our next snowstorm is just around the corner.  I put very little faith in long range forecasts (for warm or cold), but I continue to enjoy the ride.

[strongwxnc]

Just to the south of you and I also agree with your statement. The Temps around here have been nothing close to a torch or even a mid torch.

Worse for whom?  I'm with Bevo on this.  (Sorry to drag you into my argument if you have no desire to be there, Bevo, but I'm looking for an ally somewhere!)  I've seen lots of talk about December having been a torch.  Not for me!  44.8 F was my mean temp for the month of December 2012 compared to 44.4 F in December 2011.  Big whoop!  Maybe some micro-climates have been warmer than years past, but there are others that are just the same, or I bet we could even find some that were cooler.  December felt quite average to me.  I've enjoyed the month.  Lots of cool, cloudy days sprinkled with a few cold ones.  I'm looking forward to what January will bring.  Who knows?  Perhaps our next snowstorm is just around the corner.  I put very little faith in long range forecasts (for warm or cold), but I continue to enjoy the ride.

 

 

[Pilotwx]

I aprove this Message.

 

My forecasted busted big time! We will have a close call or 2 for the rest of the winter but if you can't realize we are in a pattern that has no broke since before Halloween then you have not been following the weather.  Warmer weather and more rain on the way for our area. I think we will see the Upper Mid-West ,  Great Lakes , and New England see some bouts of snow. It's just going to be hard to get anything to break the SE Ridge down the way it looks right now. Models have been awful in the 7 to 10 day range and there is no one here can doubt that! No winter is not over but the signs are there that winter weather may not be coming this year.

They havent been close this year. Its not time to grasp at straws. However the future not looking good if models are even close to being right based on what they showing as of now. Sometimes we have to accrpt it and be realistic about it

 

 

[packbacker]

Worse for whom?  I'm with Bevo on this.  (Sorry to drag you into my argument if you have no desire to be there, Bevo, but I'm looking for an ally somewhere!)  I've seen lots of talk about December having been a torch.  Not for me!  44.8 F was my mean temp for the month of December 2012 compared to 44.4 F in December 2011.  Big whoop!  Maybe some micro-climates have been warmer than years past, but there are others that are just the same, or I bet we could even find some that were cooler.  December felt quite average to me.  I've enjoyed the month.  Lots of cool, cloudy days sprinkled with a few cold ones.  I'm looking forward to what January will bring.  Who knows?  Perhaps our next snowstorm is just around the corner.  I put very little faith in long range forecasts (for warm or cold), but I continue to enjoy the ride.

 

Your proving my point for me, this past December was warmer than last December, top 10 warmest, which is ahead of last winter which was a torch.  In fact 2012 was one of the hottest years on record.  For the majority of the east December was a major torch, I think you have forgotten what it's suppose to feel like in a "normal" December.

[NCSNOW]

In actual weather related news the 84 hour NAM which equally bad is interesting at 5h. It renergizes that southern vort and has it moving east with some northern energy screaming south. Hard to tell if it would phase but it looks promising. 

Noticed this on its 18z run and the same question popped up in my head. This is what you look for in order to get a rabbit out of the hat lucky shot, until we get a more favorable pattern setup. The ol Bermuda Ridge is gonna continue to cause us alot of headaches. We need it to get beaten down first and foremost.

[calculus1]

Just to the south of you and I also agree with your statement. The Temps around here have been nothing close to a torch or even a mid torch.

 

All right!  I've got an ally!  Us WNC and SC Upstate folk can agree that's it been fairly normal all around.

 

 

Your proving my point for me, this past December was warmer than last December, top 10 warmest, which is ahead of last winter which was a torch.  In fact 2012 was one of the hottest years on record.  For the majority of the east December was a major torch, I think you have forgotten what it's suppose to feel like in a "normal" December.

 

 

A "normal" December at KHKY has a mean temp of 41.5 F (per the last 30 years).  I'm not sure I could really tell a big difference between that and 44.8 F (this year's measurement IMBY).  I've lived in either Caldwell or Catawba county in NC for just shy of 30 years now.  I don't remember a "normal" December really being much different than this year.  We have rarely ever gotten snow in December.  I'm loving the precipitation numbers (liquid or otherwise) and January is already starting out wet today.  Nice trends...

[IWC]

I think were in a normal winter for SE and it will come when it's ready. LQQking for extreme cold( remember where we live) Years past I never touched a plow till Dec 1st  and didn't expect any inclement weather till Jan 1st or later. Now with our business growing like others in the group we pay a lot closer attention to the weather and read american weather for some in site as to what is coming to plan for an event. At times it has been frustrating reading (in 240 hours it's going to get colder) then a few days later it's on to the next 240 hours) Like I mentioned awhile back we are wishing our lives away 10 days at a time. I trust what is written on here and respect all everyone tries to do here in respect to up coming weather. But calling off winter in a lil extreme.

 

So in closing lets go back to taking it a few days at a time and enjoy the weather we get the rest of the winter.

[CaryWx]

What I've come to realize is that kid met up in Alaska predicted this pesky SE ridge for our winter way back around Thanksgiving and forecasted only transient shots of cold air into our region. Looks like it's going to be around awhile too.  That's pretty good shootin'

[Snowless in Carrollton]

<blockquote class='ipsBlockquote'data-author="calculus1" data-cid="1976719" data-time="1357095874"><p>

Worse for whom? I'm with Bevo on this. (Sorry to drag you into my argument if you have no desire to be there, Bevo, but I'm looking for an ally somewhere!) I've seen lots of talk about December having been a torch. Not for me! 44.8 F was my mean temp for the month of December 2012 compared to 44.4 F in December 2011. Big whoop! Maybe some micro-climates have been warmer than years past, but there are others that are just the same, or I bet we could even find some that were cooler. December felt quite average to me. I've enjoyed the month. Lots of cool, cloudy days sprinkled with a few cold ones. I'm looking forward to what January will bring. Who knows? Perhaps our next snowstorm is just around the corner. I put very little faith in long range forecasts (for warm or cold), but I continue to enjoy the ride.</p></blockquote>

Atlanta was 5.8 above average in Dec compared to 5.1 above average last Dec....

[snowman22]

Baby steps ya'll baby steps, we are going to get snow this winter, just wait. It already is better than last year's winter, this time last year we had NO snow cover south of the Great Lakes.

[deltadog03]

Well, just don't know what to say....just looks ugly!  I just hope we can keep the rain chances up.  Snow/ice is looking grim for the foreseeable future!