Poimen Posted January 1, 2013 Share Posted January 1, 2013 If the NAM keeps it up we might have something by Friday. Compared to the 00z run, 6z and 12z are a few hundred miles shift east for the same time frame with the low out west. It's still not even close but the more east it moves that low and slower that northern energy trends well it at least leaves a crack in the window. Sorry burger, the window is closed on this one. Time to start rooting for a sudden stratospheric warming to occur and help return blocking to the north Atlantic and over the pole...otherwise we are in for a long and warm January, I'm afraid. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted January 1, 2013 Share Posted January 1, 2013 Sorry burger, the window is closed on this one. Time to start rooting for a sudden stratospheric warming to occur and help return blocking to the north Atlantic and over the pole...otherwise we are in for a long and warm January, I'm afraid. I'll keep watching cause there is nothing better to do. I think the worry about all of Jan is a little overblown. The last few runs of the GFS in the LR have not looked bad and in the past when the GFS and Euro were showing a torch it didn't happen. I mean it could this go round but with so much spread in the teleconnections it's far from certain that Jan is even close to being lost. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted January 1, 2013 Share Posted January 1, 2013 Well hopefully we can get help from the stratosphere to unlock the cold but we than will still need a favorable pattern to get it to the east US. This "cold" shot we were suppose to have this week is more like a slightly cool shot. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted January 1, 2013 Share Posted January 1, 2013 Burger, What does the euro show between hour 120 and 144? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Poimen Posted January 1, 2013 Share Posted January 1, 2013 I appreciate your optimism burger and I think most of us on this board will keep checking in hoping that things will change, or that a surprise event will pop up...which is always a possibility. On the positive side is the PNA...which might remain mostly positive through the next 2 weeks...but as we have seen this go around, that is no guarantee that we can get wintry weather in the SE. Also on the positive side is that we do have some super cold air on this side of the pole. The problem seems to be that without a -AO/NAO we have no way of getting that cold down here...at least in the short term. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted January 1, 2013 Share Posted January 1, 2013 I appreciate your optimism burger and I think most of us on this board will keep checking in hoping that things will change, or that a surprise event will pop up...which is always a possibility.On the positive side is the PNA...which might remain mostly positive through the next 2 weeks...but as we have seen this go around, that is no guarantee that we can get wintry weather in the SE. Also on the positive side is that we do have some super cold air on this side of the pole. The problem seems to be that without a -AO/NAO we have no way of getting that cold down here...at least in the short term. Yea my hope is that the nao can go weak for a few days and with the pna strong maybe the timing is right. With the pattern we're in the moisture is there and that's half the battle. Now we gotta luck out with some cold. Sent from my EVO 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted January 1, 2013 Share Posted January 1, 2013 Burger, What does the euro show between hour 120 and 144? Not at my pc right now but if I recall on the sfc it popped a weak low off the coast and had very light qpf into the coastal areas of NC Sent from my EVO 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherlover Posted January 1, 2013 Share Posted January 1, 2013 Personally Ithink the cold is got to come sometime...if we can keep this moisture coming through we will cash in later in the month...just total gut feeling but I think February is going to be a brutal month with a possible historic storm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted January 1, 2013 Share Posted January 1, 2013 Warm December analogs down in the Atlanta area do suggest a warmer than normal Jan. (2+) is likely. However, even with that, those same analogs suggest 1) the likelihood of at least one airmass getting KATL down into the teens by mid-March (several actually took til March, interestingly enough); 2) better than even shot at measurable snow by March; and 3) decent shot at ZR, which would quite possibly be major. So, if KATL has a good shot at these things despite a warm Jan. being likely, I'd think NC and other areas north of ATL would have a really good chance by March for 1) at least one very cold shot bringing teens or colder; 2) a widespread couple of inch (or greater) snow; and 3) a pretty good shot at a sig, possibly major, ZR for CAD favored areas. So, winter is very likely far from over even if January does turn out warm (which is favored). In other words, don't fret even if Jan. is warm. That wouldn't be the end of the world/winter. In other words, patience is going to be vital!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tnweathernut Posted January 1, 2013 Share Posted January 1, 2013 If I am not mistaken, Indianapolis finished December with a pretty healthy positive temperature departure, yet in the last 10 days all it has wanted to do was snow there. Something similar could happen further south as we head deeper into January. It's the first guys (gals). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted January 1, 2013 Share Posted January 1, 2013 If I am not mistaken, Indianapolis finished December with a pretty healthy positive temperature departure, yet in the last 10 days all it has wanted to do was snow there. Something similar could happen further south as we head deeper into January. It's the first guys (gals). Agreed, we don't need a whole month of cold, just a week. For the record, RDU was +6 for December, definitely a top 10 for warmest. In fact December was warmer than November. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted January 1, 2013 Share Posted January 1, 2013 Agreed, we don't need a whole month of cold, just a week. For the record, RDU was +6 for December, definitely a top 10 for warmest. In fact December was warmer than November. Moreover, we don't even need that week to be in Jan. since early warm winter analogs don't suggest an early end to winter. The best week (or two) of the winter could easily end up being in Feb. or even in March. I'm getting the feeling that many people are going to cancel winter if Jan. turns out to average warmer than normal. IMO, now is a good time to accept the idea of a warmer than avg. Jan. being likely since the tea leaves (analogs (and Euro weeklies fwiw)) suggest it and look forward to that likely good winter week or two (one of the weeks could still be in Jan.). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted January 1, 2013 Share Posted January 1, 2013 Agreed, we don't need a whole month of cold, just a week. For the record, RDU was +6 for December, definitely a top 10 for warmest. In fact December was warmer than November. The winter of 2010-2011 was just a great 6 week run that came early in the winter. After the blocking broke down in mid Jan, it sucked. The AO and NAO tanked in early Dec and we picked up 30 inches of snow during that time in Franklin. It was also very cold and the snow stayed on the ground. I just hope we can run a 6 week stretch like that this year only it will be back loaded. I'm not sure why some on this board expect winter to be cold from start to finish. And, I'm really surprised at how many think Dec is a snowy month. It's not, even here in the Mtn's. Packbacker, this post is not directed at you at all. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted January 1, 2013 Share Posted January 1, 2013 If I am not mistaken, Indianapolis finished December with a pretty healthy positive temperature departure, yet in the last 10 days all it has wanted to do was snow there. Something similar could happen further south as we head deeper into January. It's the first guys (gals). Most of the country finished on the warm side and above average in snow. Infact, I think it's a top 5 snowcover over the lower 48 for this early in the season. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted January 1, 2013 Share Posted January 1, 2013 The winter of 2010-2011 was just a great 6 week run that came early in the winter. After the blocking broke down in mid Jan, it sucked. The AO and NAO tanked in early Dec and we picked up 30 inches of snow during that time in Franklin. It was also very cold and the snow stayed on the ground. I just hope we can run a 6 week stretch like that this year only it will be back loaded. I'm not sure why some on this board expect winter to be cold from start to finish. And, I'm really surprised at how many think Dec is a snowy month. It's not, even here in the Mtn's. Packbacker, this post is not directed at you at all. I bet we wouldn't even need anything close to a six week stretch to make many happy. A one or two week stretch could easily be quite satisfying to many imo. Down in N GA, getting just one good event/one good day is often enough to make it a very good and sometimes memorable winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Poimen Posted January 1, 2013 Share Posted January 1, 2013 According to the 12Z GFS, there is no arctic air to be found in the lower 48 days 6-8, and none in the south/east days 6-10. By day 10 arctic air is spilling down the upper plains...but it remains to be seen if this will work east or not. By day 10 still no sign of blocking in the north Atlantic but a EPAC ridge is spiking. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
metalicwx366 Posted January 1, 2013 Share Posted January 1, 2013 The goal posts keep moving. We will burn up much of January now too. Feels like another dreadful winter in the making for southern snow lovers. Finally a met that sees the same thing several of us have been seeing. At this rate, it won't be till February till we see something. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCSNOW Posted January 1, 2013 Share Posted January 1, 2013 According to the 12Z GFS, there is no arctic air to be found in the lower 48 days 6-8, and none in the south/east days 6-10. By day 10 arctic air is spilling down the upper plains...but it remains to be seen if this will work east or not. By day 10 still no sign of blocking in the north Atlantic but a EPAC ridge is spiking. A negative NAO is most assertive in the second half of winter as oppossed to the first half. For it to work it's magic in the SE the first half of winter it has to have the pacific cooperate fully. As you get past mid Jan into Feb it tends to be the dominant feature behind driven the pattern (SE) when it's in a negative phase. AS you get into March /early April even if it's negative it falls back on depending on the Pacific being set up right in order to be benneficial to the SE, whille it can still be the pattern driver for the NE and most of the time MA and not be so dependent on the Pacific being just right. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted January 1, 2013 Share Posted January 1, 2013 According to the 12Z GFS, there is no arctic air to be found in the lower 48 days 6-8, and none in the south/east days 6-10. By day 10 arctic air is spilling down the upper plains...but it remains to be seen if this will work east or not. By day 10 still no sign of blocking in the north Atlantic but a EPAC ridge is spiking. One good thing is that at hr 288 GFS is showing a big cool down. That matches up with the whole Jan. 15th thinking. 12z, 00z and 6z also had big cool downs in the same time periods. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bevo Posted January 1, 2013 Share Posted January 1, 2013 Finally a met that sees the same thing several of us have been seeing. At this rate, it won't be till February till we see something. Does it feel good to keep saying it until a Met agrees? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jburns Posted January 1, 2013 Share Posted January 1, 2013 One good thing is that at hr 288 GFS is showing a big cool down. That matches up with the whole Jan. 15th thinking. 12z, 00z and 6z also had big cool downs in the same time periods. I just don't see that panning out but I'm not knowledgeable enough to specifically state why. Something just doesn't look right with the evolution of that model. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dsaur Posted January 1, 2013 Share Posted January 1, 2013 The thing I'm noticing is the stubbornness of the southeast ridge. This thing is just unrelenting at times. Hopefully it uses up its 9 lives before long... That's a fly in the ointment, and always seems to be down here. Makes for ruinous summers as well! I'm a bit dismayed to see the no rain signal go up after this next smallish system. Don't like that at all! Oh, well, the thing about the models is if you don't like them wait a few runs, then look again, lol. Right now, I'm just thankful for Dec. and hope to see the rain trains coming through this station again soon. The bummer is a dry spell that comes without any cold. Usually this time of year you get dry, but it's because of the bone breaking dry cold. Getting dry...and warm...just spells summer to me But like I said, in a few days the model runs might look like an Ice Festival. T Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Poimen Posted January 1, 2013 Share Posted January 1, 2013 I just don't see that panning out but I'm not knowledgeable enough to specifically state why. Something just doesn't look right with the evolution of that model. A lack of -NAO/AO is a good place to start. We can get cold with a spike in the PNA alone, but rarely is it sustained. I think we need sustained blocking in the right areas to deliver a wintry pattern, and there just is no sign of that occurring in the foreseeable future (Mid-Jan). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FallsLake Posted January 1, 2013 Share Posted January 1, 2013 I think we all agree that real cold air is not going to be available for at least two to three weeks (maybe longer). The question is how warm are we going to be during this period. The good news it looks like dew points (from GFS) will stay at or below freezing for large areas of the SE until around day 10. At that point the GFS shows a storm system pushing towards the lakes puliing mosture and high dew points into the SE. After day 10 it shows colder (...but that's more than 10 days out). So (from now to day10 or so) we could have some small victories in the fact that overnight temps could still provide frost/freezes where daytime temps are in the 60s. Almost a later October early November look. **this is important for agricultal and pest/bug interest. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NavarreDon Posted January 1, 2013 Share Posted January 1, 2013 A pretty startling picture! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
strongwxnc Posted January 1, 2013 Share Posted January 1, 2013 Not sure where to post this.. I was going through some old links and ran across an article titled "Snow at above freezing temps" It is a good read! http://www.sciencebits.com/SnowAboveFreezing (SFW) "Did you ever wonder how can it snow at above freezing temperatures? Well, the naive explanation is that it simply takes time for the snowflakes to melt once they penetrate above freezing air, as they descend downwards to the ground. This, of course, is the reason why hail can fall in warm weather. Simply, hail stones fall fast, too fast to let the warm air melt the hail. This is not the main explanation, however, for why it can snow when it is above freezing." Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
QC_Halo Posted January 1, 2013 Share Posted January 1, 2013 Eventually it will come true. That much is true. I think this goose is cooked for Friday. What may have bigger potential is early next week. Both the GFS and the Euro look like it's possible for a big phase with that storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eyewall Posted January 1, 2013 Share Posted January 1, 2013 Personally Ithink the cold is got to come sometime...if we can keep this moisture coming through we will cash in later in the month...just total gut feeling but I think February is going to be a brutal month with a possible historic storm Actually it doesn't. Just look at last winter. Winter never arrived for most in the region. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted January 1, 2013 Share Posted January 1, 2013 Nice golfing weather next week... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DCMetroWinston Posted January 1, 2013 Share Posted January 1, 2013 Warm in Minnesota too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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