NavarreDon Posted December 31, 2012 Share Posted December 31, 2012 Part of the long term afd from GSP.....Still not sure what is going to happen in the coming days. .LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/... AS OF 152 PM EST MONDAY...THE 12 UTC GFS WAS CONSIDERABLY MORE PROGRESSIVE IN IT/S HANDLING OF A NRN STREAM TROUGH THAN WAS THE 00 UTC ECMWF. WHILE THE GFS PUSHES THE WAVE ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS THURSDAY NIGHT...THE ECMWF CUTS THE LOW OFF OVER KS. THEREFORE THE GFS SHUNTS PCPN MUCH FATHER SOUTH OF THE REGION THAN THE EC THU NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY. EVEN SO...BY THE TIME THE EC BRINGS THE STRONGER SHORTWAVE ACROSS THE REGION...THE SFC CYCLOGENESIS IS FAR ENOUGH OFF THE COAST THAT ONLY A BRIEF PERIOD OF LIGHT PCPN AFFECTS THE FA SATURDAY MORNING. CONSIDERING THE GFS/S DRIER SOLUTION AND THE GENERALLY SLIGHT CHANCE POPS IN THE HPC GUIDANCE GRIDS...I/VE KEPT THIS PERIOD DRY. CONSIDERING THAT THERE ARE ACTIVE NRN AND SRN STREAMS OVER THE CONUS...AND THE RELATIVELY SMALL SCALE OF THE SHORT WAVE FEATURES INVOLVED...CONFIDENCE IN HOW THIS NRN STREAM FEATURE AFFECTS THE CWA IS STILL LOW. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tacoma Posted January 1, 2013 Share Posted January 1, 2013 Part of the long term afd from GSP.....Still not sure what is going to happen in the coming days. .LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/... AS OF 152 PM EST MONDAY...THE 12 UTC GFS WAS CONSIDERABLY MORE PROGRESSIVE IN IT/S HANDLING OF A NRN STREAM TROUGH THAN WAS THE 00 UTC ECMWF. WHILE THE GFS PUSHES THE WAVE ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS THURSDAY NIGHT...THE ECMWF CUTS THE LOW OFF OVER KS. THEREFORE THE GFS SHUNTS PCPN MUCH FATHER SOUTH OF THE REGION THAN THE EC THU NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY. EVEN SO...BY THE TIME THE EC BRINGS THE STRONGER SHORTWAVE ACROSS THE REGION...THE SFC CYCLOGENESIS IS FAR ENOUGH OFF THE COAST THAT ONLY A BRIEF PERIOD OF LIGHT PCPN AFFECTS THE FA SATURDAY MORNING. CONSIDERING THE GFS/S DRIER SOLUTION AND THE GENERALLY SLIGHT CHANCE POPS IN THE HPC GUIDANCE GRIDS...I/VE KEPT THIS PERIOD DRY. CONSIDERING THAT THERE ARE ACTIVE NRN AND SRN STREAMS OVER THE CONUS...AND THE RELATIVELY SMALL SCALE OF THE SHORT WAVE FEATURES INVOLVED...CONFIDENCE IN HOW THIS NRN STREAM FEATURE AFFECTS THE CWA IS STILL LOW. GSP shows a small slither of hope. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAD_Wedge_NC Posted January 1, 2013 Share Posted January 1, 2013 GSP shows a small slither of hope. NAM out to 36....vort is stronger on this run.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted January 1, 2013 Share Posted January 1, 2013 Folks, KATL's coldest for Dec. '12 (as well as Nov '12) was only down to 30. Was that the warmest coldest Dec. reading on record going back to 1879? Actually, not quite. The warmest Dec. coldest was the 31 of 1931. 2012 was tied for 2nd with four others: 1900, 1908, 1922, and 1994. Tied for 7th at 29 were these eight: 1881, 1889, 1921, 1923, 1936, 1986, 1992, and 2011. How did the subsequent Jan.-Mar. periods work out for these 13 Decembers for KATL? - The 13 averaged a respectable 1.5" of S/IP vs. the longterm avg. of 1.7" for Jan.-Mar. ( very close to normal). - 8 of the 13 had measurable S/IP - A rather impressive 4 of the 13 (31%) had major S/IP (3.5"+). 1 was in Jan., 1 in Feb., and 2 in Mar. The longterm avg. is only 23% of Jan.-Mar. having major S/IP. So, these 13 more than held their own in terms of freq. of major S/IP Jan.-Mar. The bad news, being that we're now neutral negative ENSOwise, is that all four majors were when ENSO was between borderline weak Nino and moderate Nino fwiw - 2 of the 13 had a major ZR, both in Jan. That is very close to the longterm avg. of ~1 in 6 Jan.-Mar.s getting major ZR. The good news is that both were during neutral negative ENSO, near the current status. - Four of the 13 Dec.'s were during neutral neg. ENSO, near the Dec. 2012 status: 1881, 1921, 1922, and 1931. 1881 and 1922 both had a major ZR in the following Jan., 1921 had 1.0" of S/IP in the following Jan., and 1931 had 0.5" of S/IP in the following Mar. So, all 4 had measurable wintry precip. and 2 had major wintry precip. (ZR)..so not bad at all. - Coldest in Jan.-Mar. averaged a quite respectably cold ~15F, which isn't far from the average for coldest in an entire winter. Range: 0-22. Only 2 in 20's. Coldest two were 0 and 8. There were an impressive 4 coldest in Mar. (15-18)! - Subsequent 13 Jan.'s averaged 3.6 F warmer than normal. Only 4 of the 13 were near to colder than normal; 3 of those 4 were during El Nino. One, which was near normal, was during neutral negative ENSO. The other three neut. neg. Jan's were between 5 and 8 F warmer than normal. - Subsequent 13 Feb.'s averaged 2.3 F warmer than normal. Only 2 of the 13 were colder than normal and both were during weak El Nino. One of the four neutral negative Feb's was near normal. The other three neut. neg. Feb.'s were between 4 and 8 F warmer than normal. - Subsequent 13 Mar.'s, as well as the 4 neutral neg. Mar.'s, alone, averaged right at normal. The coldest of the 13 Mar.'s was actually a neutral neg. Mar. Educated guesses for KATL based on the above stats. for Jan.-Mar. 2013 - Coldest in teens coming sometime in Jan.-Mar. - Jan. warmer than normal - Feb. either near or warmer than normal - Measurable S/IP up to ~1" - Risk for major ZR > risk for MAJOR S/IP and, if occurs, most likely Jan. or early Feb. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted January 1, 2013 Share Posted January 1, 2013 Well 00z NAM is interesting it keeps that low in the southern stream much stronger... unfortunately for us it moves at a snails pace without anything to knock it forward. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted January 1, 2013 Share Posted January 1, 2013 NAM says congrats Juarez, Mexico with a big helping of snow. This is multiple runs in a row that puts a rare snow down in parts of Mexico. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted January 1, 2013 Share Posted January 1, 2013 NAM says congrats Juarez, Mexico with a big helping of snow. This is multiple runs in a row that puts a rare snow down in parts of Mexico. LOL, that's funny. It's to bad, you would think if that southern low would move east we would have a storm. But your right, multiple models show snow in northern Mexico. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bevo Posted January 1, 2013 Share Posted January 1, 2013 LOL, that's funny. It's to bad, you would think if that southern low would move east we would have a storm. But your right, multiple models show snow in northern Mexico. Too add a little salt to that....it's a sad day when I find myself wishing to see Cuban divers showing up at 192 hours on the GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted January 1, 2013 Share Posted January 1, 2013 Happy New Year. Didn't post, but precip is above normal in SE Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bevo Posted January 1, 2013 Share Posted January 1, 2013 Happy New Year. Didn't post, but precip is above normal in SE grit - appreciate your quality posts. This may be a voice in a black hole, but I would much rather be sitting with above normal moisture going into the meat of winter when the cold isn't there. We really need it to stay active through February though. Every January, February and early March is a viable opportunity. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted January 1, 2013 Share Posted January 1, 2013 Happy New Year. Didn't post, but precip is above normal in SE Things are not looking good for the first half of Jan. that's for sure. Maybe with the above average moisture we can luck out with some transient cold shot. Might be the only thing to hope for the way it's looking now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WilkesboroDude Posted January 1, 2013 Share Posted January 1, 2013 LOL, that's funny. It's to bad, you would think if that southern low would move east we would have a storm. But your right, multiple models show snow in northern Mexico. GFS included...I like the Mexico snow solutions...well I mean it makes sense to me. Below is soil temps. I would not be surprised if some of this snow made its way into Texas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted January 1, 2013 Share Posted January 1, 2013 My goodness, just looked at the Euro weeklies, I had to clear my cache several times to make sure I didn't have old maps in my cache. Needless to say they look nothing like the CFS for the last 1/3 of January. I stopped looking at them they were so bad, but it showed 60's here for a the last part of January. I am team CFS! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted January 1, 2013 Share Posted January 1, 2013 grit - appreciate your quality posts. This may be a voice in a black hole, but I would much rather be sitting with above normal moisture going into the meat of winter when the cold isn't there. We really need it to stay active through February though. Every January, February and early March is a viable opportunity. Appreciate it. I have a lot of respect for the products and discussions that CPC puts out, particularly their 6-10 day and 8-14 day outlooks...once you get past 2 weeks, it becomes a crap shoot real quick. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WilkesboroDude Posted January 1, 2013 Share Posted January 1, 2013 Appreciate it. I have a lot of respect for the products and discussions that CPC puts out, particularly their 6-10 day and 8-14 day outlooks...once you get past 2 weeks, it becomes a crap shoot real quick. I used to post those some but I got flamed for it. I agree though. I would post them but they look torchy, and moisture driven either way south or just west of the Apps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SN_Lover Posted January 1, 2013 Share Posted January 1, 2013 The gfs looks interesting...looks like it was closer to a phase. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted January 1, 2013 Share Posted January 1, 2013 It's an interesting run at 5h not sure if it will totally phase in time on this run. This to me looks closer like the Christmas storm @105 but maybe I'm reading it wrong. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted January 1, 2013 Share Posted January 1, 2013 It didn't make the phase....it looked kind of like the solution the Euro ENS had last night but the ENS phased the energy. Might be something to watch down the line. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WilkesboroDude Posted January 1, 2013 Share Posted January 1, 2013 Cigar not lit. Wasn't expecting it to be either. But was interesting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nchighcountrywx Posted January 1, 2013 Share Posted January 1, 2013 Happy New Year. Didn't post, but precip is above normal in SE The above is a very disappointing change from the previous January outlook made on December 21. See Below: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dsaur Posted January 1, 2013 Share Posted January 1, 2013 Folks, KATL's coldest for Dec. '12 (as well as Nov '12) was only down to 30. Was that the warmest coldest Dec. reading on record going back to 1879? Actually, not quite. The warmest Dec. coldest was the 31 of 1931. 2012 was tied for 2nd with four others: 1900, 1908, 1922, and 1994. Tied for 7th at 29 were these eight: 1881, 1889, 1921, 1923, 1936, 1986, 1992, and 2011. How did the subsequent Jan.-Mar. periods work out for these 13 Decembers for KATL? - The 13 averaged a respectable 1.5" of S/IP vs. the longterm avg. of 1.7" for Jan.-Mar. ( very close to normal). - 8 of the 13 had measurable S/IP - A rather impressive 4 of the 13 (31%) had major S/IP (3.5"+). 1 was in Jan., 1 in Feb., and 2 in Mar. The longterm avg. is only 23% of Jan.-Mar. having major S/IP. So, these 13 more than held their own in terms of freq. of major S/IP Jan.-Mar. The bad news, being that we're now neutral negative ENSOwise, is that all four majors were when ENSO was between borderline weak Nino and moderate Nino fwiw - 2 of the 13 had a major ZR, both in Jan. That is very close to the longterm avg. of ~1 in 6 Jan.-Mar.s getting major ZR. The good news is that both were during neutral negative ENSO, near the current status. - Four of the 13 Dec.'s were during neutral neg. ENSO, near the Dec. 2012 status: 1881, 1921, 1922, and 1931. 1881 and 1922 both had a major ZR in the following Jan., 1921 had 1.0" of S/IP in the following Jan., and 1931 had 0.5" of S/IP in the following Mar. So, all 4 had measurable wintry precip. and 2 had major wintry precip. (ZR)..so not bad at all. - Coldest in Jan.-Mar. averaged a quite respectably cold ~15F, which isn't far from the average for coldest in an entire winter. Range: 0-22. Only 2 in 20's. Coldest two were 0 and 8. There were an impressive 4 coldest in Mar. (15-18)! - Subsequent 13 Jan.'s averaged 3.6 F warmer than normal. Only 4 of the 13 were near to colder than normal; 3 of those 4 were during El Nino. One, which was near normal, was during neutral negative ENSO. The other three neut. neg. Jan's were between 5 and 8 F warmer than normal. - Subsequent 13 Feb.'s averaged 2.3 F warmer than normal. Only 2 of the 13 were colder than normal and both were during weak El Nino. One of the four neutral negative Feb's was near normal. The other three neut. neg. Feb.'s were between 4 and 8 F warmer than normal. - Subsequent 13 Mar.'s, as well as the 4 neutral neg. Mar.'s, alone, averaged right at normal. The coldest of the 13 Mar.'s was actually a neutral neg. Mar. Educated guesses for KATL based on the above stats. for Jan.-Mar. 2013 - Coldest in teens coming sometime in Jan.-Mar. - Jan. warmer than normal - Feb. either near or warmer than normal - Measurable S/IP up to ~1" - Risk for major ZR > risk for MAJOR S/IP and, if occurs, most likely Jan. or early Feb. Well, considering all the doom and gloom, this sounds ok to me. Nothing to say it will be anything like last winter. Still a chance for cold shots, and timing. I'm just sorry we didn't break 50 degrees. But it was cold enough for frozen last night, and it will rain soon, so the future looks bright to me...3 months to find that inch, lol. And if that cold edges down some, and that storm edges up some...who knows, I could be sliding while everyone else is crying, lol. I still think this step down favors zrain for a first storm, in Ga. Hang a front with come marginal cold, and a weak, suppressed system coming up the frontl Marginal winters are great for marginal storms, and you can't get more marginal that cold rain/zrain, lol. T Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted January 1, 2013 Share Posted January 1, 2013 GFS was would've could've and if's with that almost phase. GEFS individual members might be fun tonight. Either way I'm not staying up for it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SN_Lover Posted January 1, 2013 Share Posted January 1, 2013 just a observation, the 0z models looked to be close to a phase. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dsaur Posted January 1, 2013 Share Posted January 1, 2013 Burns, I see where you've gotten a bit off track, lol. Well, no wonder your cats were able to defeat it.....that there is a gelatinous gill mouth. A big one with the staring eyes, but they can't fight, though you don't want your ziffle caught in those gill slits. I could wear this mask 'til the cow came back, but I don't think I'd get snow I will wear it though, because that lady across the street interests me, but I've been afraid to talk to her. Maybe in this mask I'll feel more confident! Now, the gfs still wants me to get some rain, and that's good. And that string of highs out west is a nice addition to the maps, but too far away to get here by rain time. The GFS only has nearly cold air come Sunday, and the real snow air doesn't show up until the 13th. Don't think that will get here by Wed. Ain't looking good for the weather, but I'll be looking good in my new Whatsis mask. Pretty lady across the street...next time I get the mail I'll be stylin' thanks to my friend Mr. Burns!! Happy New Year you nut, lol. And to all of you!!! Tony Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CandymanColumbusGA Posted January 1, 2013 Share Posted January 1, 2013 The thing I'm noticing is the stubbornness of the southeast ridge. This thing is just unrelenting at times. Hopefully it uses up its 9 lives before long... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eyewall Posted January 1, 2013 Share Posted January 1, 2013 Things are not looking good for the first half of Jan. that's for sure. Maybe with the above average moisture we can luck out with some transient cold shot. Might be the only thing to hope for the way it's looking now. The goal posts keep moving. We will burn up much of January now too. Feels like another dreadful winter in the making for southern snow lovers. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted January 1, 2013 Share Posted January 1, 2013 I think this goose is cooked for Friday. What may have bigger potential is early next week. Both the GFS and the Euro look like it's possible for a big phase with that storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ColdRainsStr8cashhomey Posted January 1, 2013 Share Posted January 1, 2013 The goal posts keep moving. We will burn up much of January now too. Feels like another dreadful winter in the making for southern snow lovers. you lost me at goal posts... most didn't sign on to this board to kick field goals did they?! you gotta run the deep seam pattern with your horse and go for the the board appreciates the sound meteorological reasoning behind your bold "climo-approved" claim Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted January 1, 2013 Share Posted January 1, 2013 The goal posts keep moving. We will burn up much of January now too. Feels like another dreadful winter in the making for southern snow lovers. At least there is some light at the end of the tunnel. Looking at teleconnection predictions it looks like the models are in a lot of disagreement but both the GFS and Euro predict a drop in the NAO around the 9-13th. Where they differ is with the PNA. Euro has it staying negative while the GFS goes bonkers with it going positive. GFS ENS and Euro ENS both have the PNA staying negative but the GFS ENS drops the NAO for the duration of it's run into negative to neutral territory. Hopefully this model disagreement is showing just how tough it is for the models to nail down one thing. 00z GFS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted January 1, 2013 Share Posted January 1, 2013 If the NAM keeps it up we might have something by Friday. Compared to the 00z run, 6z and 12z are a few hundred miles shift east for the same time frame with the low out west. It's still not even close but the more east it moves that low and slower that northern energy trends well it at least leaves a crack in the window. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.