January Pattern and Storm Discussion

[jburns]

Oh definately. I'm not trying to say there isn't valuable meteorological discussion that can be had in the 7-10+ range. But the people posting every run of the gfs to see how a storm 300 hours out changes run to run is not adding anything meaningful. I look at the fantasy storms as much as the next weather weenie but that's all they are is fantasy.

Beyond 7 days it should be all about the pattern.

[burgertime]

On second thought giving the timing it could just be some kind of another storm popping up on the UKMet...

[franklin NCwx]

On second thought giving the timing it could just be some kind of another storm popping up on the UKMet...

Burger, yesterday's 12z had an apps runner. today's run looks like it missed the phase. I think that is some meso low showing up.

[franklin NCwx]

I guess the JMA phased.

[AirNelson39]

Still not throwing in the towel, I've seen crazier things happen in this timeframe.

And I agree with Franklin, don't check this forum out if you don't want to tie your emotions to each model run of fantasy storms...that's the fun of it, seeing the chances and putting faith in the models.

[burgertime]

I guess the JMA phased.

lol yea I saw that but figured it wasn't worth posting because...well it's the JMA I can count on one hand how many times I've seen it win out and still have plenty of fingers left.

[Ground Scouring]

I think that the general trend counts more than the actual mesoscale features. I like the strong subtropical jet and the good consistency between the NCEP and ECMWF ensembles re: the warming stratosphere over AK with a +PNA connection in days 4-7. The pattern overall looks quite good to me for snowfall over central and southern Appalachia, with some wave-breaking impulses providing a focus for severe weather over the FL peninsula.

[burgertime]

Something to note on the 18z NAM it has a different look at 5h with that northern energy. S/W out west is also a tad bit stronger on this run. If we had something push that s/w east faster we would possibly be in business. Either way short range models don't yet know what to make of what's going on with the energy up north.

[Bevo]

In my opinion, the first suspicious moment was that pretty High showing up out of nowhere on a 12Z run. It was never a part of the trend at that point, and is of no use to us now.

[metalicwx366]

I'm not real sure about the last three posters comments. If you sign up for a weather board I'm not real sure why you are only wanting 3 day forecasts? If that is all you want, click on your NWS grid forecast. The beauty of this board is for people to discuss upcoming potential. It's not the fault of other posters if some get excited over a couple runs of a few models. People need to keep emotions in check. I have seen models bust inside 3 days, for better and worse.

No one said anything about a 3 day forecast. He said we should wait till 2-3 days before it to start discussing it. When you are discussing a potential snow event 5+ days out and no model is showing any snow, why discuss it? You guys got excited because 2 runs of the GFS were barely showing snow and people were making 4-8 inch snow totals because of a GFS ensemble. Also since when has the CMC been reliable? This is the 1st year I have seen it posted this much. The boxing day blizzard was different. The models were actually showing it and was it was actually a realistic possibility. It just seems with this storm that you all were wishcasting a phase and other features that would support snow and ice.

[msuwx]

I don't know what thread this belong in, so I will put it here.....

Reading through the threads, the comments about 'things remaining the same' and 'same old, same old' are prevalent. I just felt the need to point out that the pattern did indeed undergo a big change.

Let's take Charlotte for example. Since Dec 15, there have been 6 days with decent amounts of rain..... a much, much wetter pattern than the previous roughly 6 weeks. Charlotte has also not recorded a high above 60 since December 19.

All you can do in long range forecasting is figure out what players might be on the field and where potentials might lie. This current week, the players have been on the field to produce wintry weather in parts of the region. However, just because the various features may not align to put snow down in your back yard does not mean the pattern was not more favorable for winter weather chances. You have some temps running near average overall as well as an active storm track.

If you only focus on the bare grass in your yard, then yes, nothing has changed in the pattern. However, if you look at the actual weather, things have decidedly changed.

I would also encourage you to ask the ski industry if things have changed over the past couple of weeks. Things are a bit different than mid-December.

In my blog, and in my posts on this board, I might discuss and toss around things that I would not yet put in my official on-air public forecast. This is kind of 'pulling back the curtain' on some thoughts and possibilities ahead.... a sharing of thoughts with fellow weather nerds. This is not an official forecast....it is the kicking around of ideas, such as systems well into the future.

[packbacker]

No one said anything about a 3 day forecast. He said we should wait till 2-3 days before it to start discussing it. When you are discussing a potential snow event 5+ days out and no model is showing any snow, why discuss it? You guys got excited because 2 runs of the GFS was barely showing snow and people were making 4-8 inch snow totals because of a GFS ensemble. Also since when has the CMC been reliable? This is the 1st year I have seen it posted this much. The boxing day blizzard was different. The models were actually showing it and was it was actually a realistic possibility. It just seems with this storm that you all were wishcasting a phase and other features that would support snow and ice.

So your saying that on a weather forum we should only be looking at events within a 72 hour window and not discuss potential events at day 5-6? It sounds like your disappointed as we all are but what your suggesting isn't going to happen as we enjoy discussing potential. I agree it's kind of silly to be looking and discussing hour 300 surface maps.

[Brick Tamland]

I don't know what thread this belong in, so I will put it here.....

Reading through the threads, the comments about 'things remaining the same' and 'same old, same old' are prevalent. I just felt the need to point out that the pattern did indeed undergo a big change.

Let's take Charlotte for example. Since Dec 15, there have been 6 days with decent amounts of rain..... a much, much wetter pattern than the previous roughly 6 weeks. Charlotte has also not recorded a high above 60 since December 19.

All you can do in long range forecasting is figure out what players might be on the field and where potentials might lie. This current week, the players have been on the field to produce wintry weather in parts of the region. However, just because the various features may not align to put snow down in your back yard does not mean the pattern was not more favorable for winter weather chances. You have some temps running near average overall as well as an active storm track.

If you only focus on the bare grass in your yard, then yes, nothing has changed in the pattern. However, if you look at the actual weather, things have decidedly changed.

I would also encourage you to ask the ski industry if things have changed over the past couple of weeks. Things are a bit different than mid-December.

I agree the pattern has changed. The players on the field are better than last winter, but the team is still losing. I think that makes it even more frustrating. Maybe they will get a win before long. I just hope they can get one before the season is over. Even if the players are better than before, a loss is a loss.

[Spidyr2k]

I agree the pattern has changed. The players on the field are better than last winter, but the team is still losing. I think that makes it even more frustrating. Maybe they will get a win before long. I just hope they can get one before the season is over. Even if the players are better than before, a loss is a loss.

Maybe we should start a Fantasy Storm League??? GFS vs Euro, etc? Srsly tho, rain is still a win for some of us.

[SnowNiner]

I don't know what thread this belong in, so I will put it here.....

Reading through the threads, the comments about 'things remaining the same' and 'same old, same old' are prevalent. I just felt the need to point out that the pattern did indeed undergo a big change.

Let's take Charlotte for example. Since Dec 15, there have been 6 days with decent amounts of rain..... a much, much wetter pattern than the previous roughly 6 weeks. Charlotte has also not recorded a high above 60 since December 19.

All you can do in long range forecasting is figure out what players might be on the field and where potentials might lie. This current week, the players have been on the field to produce wintry weather in parts of the region. However, just because the various features may not align to put snow down in your back yard does not mean the pattern was not more favorable for winter weather chances. You have some temps running near average overall as well as an active storm track.

If you only focus on the bare grass in your yard, then yes, nothing has changed in the pattern. However, if you look at the actual weather, things have decidedly changed.

I would also encourage you to ask the ski industry if things have changed over the past couple of weeks. Things are a bit different than mid-December.

In my blog, and in my posts on this board, I might discuss and toss around things that I would not yet put in my official on-air public forecast. This is kind of 'pulling back the curtain' on some thoughts and possibilities ahead.... a sharing of thoughts with fellow weather nerds. This is not an official forecast....it is the kicking around of ideas, such as systems well into the future.

Can't argue with that. Things have gotten remarkably "normal" since Dec 20 or so. The problem is the players are currently on the field but they're hightailing it pretty quick. They didn't stay too long. Hopefully the pattern gets better and the players return soon. My thing is normal usually does not cut it. We need a really good pattern to get a shot at winter weather. Just have to be patient and wait and see.

I love looking behind the curtain, can't say how cool it is to get the hunches and gut feelings of the mets on the board. Much appreciated.

[ncwinterwxman]

That is clearly NOT what the poster was saying at all..."When you are discussing a potential snow event 5+ days out and NO model is showing any snow, why discuss it?" "You guys got excited because 2 runs of the GFS were BARELY showing snow and people were making 4-8 inch snow totals because of a GFS ensemble." "It just seems with this storm that you all were wishcasting a phase and other features that would support snow and ice." I agree with this assessment 10000 %. I haven't seen one model run that was even CLOSE to a phase regardless of what anyone else has to say. I have been watching models for years and know exactly what a phase looks like and this does NOT look like a phase at all. If anything, the pattern clearly supports a suppressed, cold frontal passage with a POSSIBLE weak area of low pressure that rides up the front and that is IT. Maybe things will look better later in the month, but this is NOT the storm to get even the slightest bit excited about. Sorry.

So your saying that on a weather forum we should only be looking at events within a 72 hour window and not discuss potential events at day 5-6? It sounds like your disappointed as we all are but what your suggesting isn't going to happen as we enjoy discussing potential. I agree it's kind of silly to be looking and discussing hour 300 surface maps.

No one said anything about a 3 day forecast. He said we should wait till 2-3 days before it to start discussing it. When you are discussing a potential snow event 5+ days out and no model is showing any snow, why discuss it? You guys got excited because 2 runs of the GFS were barely showing snow and people were making 4-8 inch snow totals because of a GFS ensemble. Also since when has the CMC been reliable? This is the 1st year I have seen it posted this much. The boxing day blizzard was different. The models were actually showing it and was it was actually a realistic possibility. It just seems with this storm that you all were wishcasting a phase and other features that would support snow and ice.

[metalicwx366]

So your saying that on a weather forum we should only be looking at events within a 72 hour window and not discuss potential events at day 5-6? It sounds like your disappointed as we all are but what your suggesting isn't going to happen as we enjoy discussing potential. I agree it's kind of silly to be looking and discussing hour 300 surface maps.

Ok here is an example of what I am saying. 8 days out before Sandy hit land, all models were screaming Superstorm. CMC 00z run jumped onto the idea first and the rest of the global models followed at 12z. That day every sub forum created a thread except for Central/Western states for the possibility of a superstorm. It looked much more realistic than going ots which was suggested later by the GFS runs. The models were consistent especially the Euro. With this event and others you keep hearing models are having a hard time with all the small and large scale features.

[packbacker]

Don't you know how to read? That is clearly NOT what the poster was saying at all..."When you are discussing a potential snow event 5+ days out and NO model is showing any snow, why discuss it?" "You guys got excited because 2 runs of the GFS were BARELY showing snow and people were making 4-8 inch snow totals because of a GFS ensemble." "It just seems with this storm that you all were wishcasting a phase and other features that would support snow and ice." I agree with this assessment 10000 %. I haven't seen one model run that was even CLOSE to a phase regardless of what anyone else has to say. I have been watching models for years and know exactly what a phase looks like and this does NOT look like a phase at all. If anything, the pattern clearly supports a suppressed, cold frontal passage with a POSSIBLE weak area of low pressure that rides up the front and that is IT. Maybe things will look better later in the month, but this is NOT the storm to get even the slightest bit excited about. Sorry.

Evidently you don't know models as the GFS/CMC/UK all have intermittently showed a winter event of some sorts for NC as late as last night. Get a grip, it's the weather. If you don't want to discuss potential events don't read this thread, if you want to discuss the weather your observing go to the observation thread.

[packbacker]

Ok here is an example of what I am saying. 8 days out before Sandy hit land, all models were screaming Superstorm. CMC 00z run jumped onto the idea first and the rest of the global models followed at 12z. That day every sub forum created a thread except for Central/Western states for the possibility of a superstorm. It looked much more realistic than going ots which was suggested later by the GFS runs. The models were consistent especially the Euro. With this event and others you keep hearing models are having a hard time with all the small and large scale features.

I don't know what your argument is, it sounds like you are arguing with yourself now. 3 of the major models as of last night were showing some sort of winter event for NC. It fell apart, get over it.

[franklin NCwx]

No one said anything about a 3 day forecast. He said we should wait till 2-3 days before it to start discussing it. When you are discussing a potential snow event 5+ days out and no model is showing any snow, why discuss it? You guys got excited because 2 runs of the GFS were barely showing snow and people were making 4-8 inch snow totals because of a GFS ensemble. Also since when has the CMC been reliable? This is the 1st year I have seen it posted this much. The boxing day blizzard was different. The models were actually showing it and was it was actually a realistic possibility. It just seems with this storm that you all were wishcasting a phase and other features that would support snow and ice.

First 2-3 days out is a 3 day forecast. Second, Models have been showing some snow falling in NC as well as the ensembles. Third, the CMC was very reliable back in 09-10 and for Dec10. I know, I posted it many times. In fact in scored a coup back in Jan of 2010 when it was the only model not showing a "Cuba diver". And fourth, I don't see anyone "wishcasting a phase", It's a weather board people discuss the weather.

[tnweathernut]

From snowflake22 in the main page stratospheric warming thread...............

"The medium-range indicators suggest a nice +PNA with a strong subtropical jet providing a very favorable set-up for some CAD over the south-central Appalchians in about six days and beyond. Given the extended outlook for an NAO rapidly shifting within +/- 3 to 5 standard deviations of its current mean, the forecast for a stratospheric warming event over AK in the same time frame also favors a +PNA as shown by surprisingly good agreement between the ECMWF and NCEP ensembles, with both depicting a strong Bering vortex in the same time frame, beginning in the four-day time frame and amplifying days 5-7. I would give a good prospect for snow over Appalachia and OH / WV / W PA in this time frame, extending up into portions of NY and NW New England. Also, I see a good potential for a series of wave-breakling events with potential for at least one big severe-wx outbreak over a wide portion of the far South due to the strong subtropical jet overspreading an increasingly cool 700-mb environment over the Gulf Coast / FL. At least one severe-wx outbreak over FL appears likely because this type of pattern was seen in 02/28/1998--granted, a Niño year--and occasionally in some neutral ENSO years."

Just thought i'd post this..........................not necessarily b/c i agree, but b/c it might get this trainwreck back on the tracks. Come on guys, we are better than this.

[Tacoma]

Give it a rest already! Enough is enough. This is a weather board......we discuss weather..... both short range and long range. That is how it's been and that is how it is going to be in the future. If you don't like hearing about the potential pattern down the road, I am sorry. Most of us do......Yes, there is wishcasting. We all want to lean toward any possibility of winter weather even if there seems to be no chance. I am not putting much faith in the models right now as they have been grossly wrong as of late, which means that they might not be picking up on something that would allow things to end up in our favor. That is where the human aspect of it comes into play. The models are just a guide.....(Rant over)..... Our local NWS forecast now has precip in for Wed night and Thurs. That's a big change from earlier forecasts. Temps mid 30's.for a low and low 40's for a high.

same GSP are now saying possible rain/snow or light snow for wednesday nite/thursday morning for the mtns of nc models are coming in wetter and futher north.

[ncwinterwxman]

Good AFD by Raleigh WFO...key words being NUISANCE transition before changing to ALL rain...that is clearly what the pattern supports:

AS IT STANDS NOW THE UNCERTAINTY REVOLVES AROUND TWO POTENTIAL

PRECIP EVENTS...THE FIRST WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY...AND THEN

AGAIN LATE FRIDAY NIGHT AND INTO SATURDAY. A MODEL CONSENSUS WOULD

FAVOR A WETTER SCENARIO ALONG THE COAST WITH LIGHT RAIN CONFINED TO

THE SOUTHERN AND EASTERN COUNTIES. IT IS IMPORTANT TO NOTE

HOWEVER...ANY PHASING OF NORTHERN STREAM ENERGY WITH THE STRONG

SOUTHERN BRANCH OF THE JETSTREAM WOULD POTENTIALLY RESULT IN A

STRONGER COASTAL STORM AND ASSOCIATED PRECIP SPREADING FURTHER

INLAND. ADDITIONALLY...THE DEGREE OF CONFLUENCE OVER THE MID

ATLANTIC REGION COULD POTENTIALLY SET UP THE POTENTIAL FOR COLD AIR

DAMMING OVER THE VIRGINIA/CAROLINA PIEDMONT WHICH COULD RESULT IN A

NUISANCE TRANSITION FROZEN/FREEZING PRECIP AT THE ONSET OF PRECIP

BEFORE CHANGING OVER TO ALL RAIN. SUCH TRENDS WILL CONTINUED TO BE

MONITORED OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAY. GIVEN THE HIGH DEGREE OF

UNCERTAINTY...P-TYPE WILL BE KEPT AT ALL RAIN WITH SLIGHT TO SMALL

CHANCE POPS WEST TO EAST.

[BrierCreekWx]

Good AFD by Raleigh WFO...key words being NUISANCE transition before changing to ALL rain...that is clearly what the pattern supports:

Is there a reason (meteorologically speaking) why you're so confident that there is no way possible for a phase to occur, which would result in a more significant event? In my view, until that northern stream energy gets better sampled, we really can't be sure what the H5 evolution is really going to be like.

P.S. Welcome to the board!

[ncwinterwxman]

Well, I would have to say that I whole-heartedly agree with DT's assessment that was posted earlier in here...the lack of a kicker to kick this disturbance to the north and east is the main problem. That was it. That was the only reason this could have been a decent event in the first place in my view for the central part of the state. In addition, the lack of any model support for any phasing whatsoever at this point is leading me to believe that the phasing will not occur. Not saying it can't because I have seen it happen before inside 72 hours but the chances of it occurring are getting smaller and smaller.

Edit: I think what you are going to find is that as the northern stream gets better sampled, it will end up stronger and stronger which means suppression city and the precip shield ends up not getting past ILM. However, I hope for the sanity of the board's sake, I am wrong :-)

Is there a reason (meteorologically speaking) why you're so confident that there is no way possible for a phase to occur, which would result in a more significant event? In my view, until that northern stream energy gets better sampled, we really can't be sure what the H5 evolution is really going to be like.

[burgertime]

Euro weeklies are out and they just look ho-hum. Interestingly enough at 228 it lays some snow down for upstate SC and WNC. Outside of that it looks like transient shots of cold with above average temps in between. It torches around hour 472 - 570 with temps in NC and SC in the upper 60's and some in NC even getting in the 70 range. Of course this will probably change by Thursday.

[burgertime]

Good AFD by Raleigh WFO...key words being NUISANCE transition before changing to ALL rain...that is clearly what the pattern supports:

AS IT STANDS NOW THE UNCERTAINTY REVOLVES AROUND TWO POTENTIAL

PRECIP EVENTS...THE FIRST WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY...AND THEN

AGAIN LATE FRIDAY NIGHT AND INTO SATURDAY. A MODEL CONSENSUS WOULD

FAVOR A WETTER SCENARIO ALONG THE COAST WITH LIGHT RAIN CONFINED TO

THE SOUTHERN AND EASTERN COUNTIES. IT IS IMPORTANT TO NOTE

HOWEVER...ANY PHASING OF NORTHERN STREAM ENERGY WITH THE STRONG

SOUTHERN BRANCH OF THE JETSTREAM WOULD POTENTIALLY RESULT IN A

STRONGER COASTAL STORM AND ASSOCIATED PRECIP SPREADING FURTHER

INLAND. ADDITIONALLY...THE DEGREE OF CONFLUENCE OVER THE MID

ATLANTIC REGION COULD POTENTIALLY SET UP THE POTENTIAL FOR COLD AIR

DAMMING OVER THE VIRGINIA/CAROLINA PIEDMONT WHICH COULD RESULT IN A

NUISANCE TRANSITION FROZEN/FREEZING PRECIP AT THE ONSET OF PRECIP

BEFORE CHANGING OVER TO ALL RAIN. SUCH TRENDS WILL CONTINUED TO BE

MONITORED OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAY. GIVEN THE HIGH DEGREE OF

UNCERTAINTY...P-TYPE WILL BE KEPT AT ALL RAIN WITH SLIGHT TO SMALL

CHANCE POPS WEST TO EAST.

I think that is the most important aspect in all of this. If you look at the 5h maps for NAM/GFS/Euro yes they all say no storm but it's not like all of them look the same at that level. Each run spits out a different way of getting there. That leaves the door open for multiple solutions as Briar has mentioned, it all hinges on that northern energy. Just look at ukie, and CMC from the other day. Will it happen? Probably not, but the possibility is there and as someone who loves snow I'll be right there on the runs looking for that window to open.

[ncwinterwxman]

AGREED 100 % I love snow too but there comes a fine line between wishing for something to happen and there really being a decent chance for something to happen. That's all.

I think that is the most important aspect in all of this. If you look at the 5h maps for NAM/GFS/Euro yes they all say no storm but it's not like all of them look the same at that level. Each run spits out a different way of getting there. That leaves the door open for multiple solutions as Briar has mentioned, it all hinges on that northern energy. Just look at ukie, and CMC from the other day. Will it happen? Probably not, but the possibility is there and as someone who loves snow I'll be right there on the runs looking for that window to open.

[burgertime]

Also Euro ENS brings a system up the coast which drops some snow on the I-40 corridor of WNC @198. @360 it also drops a wide strip of snow in TN...but that's way out in la la land.

[nrgjeff]

Brutal run of the weeklies...

Euro weeklies are out and they just look ho-hum. Interestingly enough at 228 it lays some snow down for upstate SC and WNC. Outside of that it looks like transient shots of cold with above average temps in between. It torches around hour 472 - 570 with temps in NC and SC in the upper 60's and some in NC even getting in the 70 range. Of course this will probably change by Thursday.

In summary the Euro weeklies show a 500 mb ridge over the Southeast and/or all of the East the rest of January after this weekend/early next week. 850 temps are above normal, no surprise, with the cold locked out West or in western Canada and Alaska. Horrendous! Seems to want to send cold into Eastern Europe and China, separately. Western Europe does not even get cold and Central Europe is on the border. I'm just looking for where the cold goes. Hopefully the torch for the Eastern US is a glitch or single run hiccup; otherwise, it's dismal. Either way, Happy New Year!