HKY_WX Posted December 31, 2012 Share Posted December 31, 2012 I respect DT a lot for his medium range forecasting skills, but he does tend to go for extremes. It's how he makes his name. I've seen be correct a lot and be completely wrong a lot. But that's everyone really. I haven't read his thoughts, but if he's dissing this pattern he's wrong on that. This could easily produce a storm, especially over southern Virginia/Carolinas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherlover Posted December 31, 2012 Share Posted December 31, 2012 Latest cfsv2 really looks nice for jan. 20 onward...patience folks winters coming Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted December 31, 2012 Share Posted December 31, 2012 Well, you and I have spent a lot of time together on this board, so I'm going to reserve comment other than to say, if a comment like that is deemed "negative" it doesn't say much for the level of tolerance of discourse on this board. Hey like I said, it didn't hurt my feelings...just could see how someone might take it the wrong way is all. You know it aint looking positive when the threads start going this direction. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted December 31, 2012 Share Posted December 31, 2012 I respect DT a lot for his medium range forecasting skills, but he does tend to go for extremes. It's how he makes his name. I've seen be correct a lot and be completely wrong a lot. But that's everyone really. I haven't read his thoughts, but if he's dissing this pattern he's wrong on that. This could easily produce a storm, especially over southern Virginia/Carolinas. His big issue was the lack of a kicker out west for our s/w and the big PV in Canada which would force the northern energy to do what it's doing. Just my take from it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted December 31, 2012 Share Posted December 31, 2012 Check out the diff between 6z GFS and 12z Ukie 6z GFS (hr78) 12z Ukie (hr72) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
metalicwx366 Posted December 31, 2012 Share Posted December 31, 2012 DT seems to play to the extremes. It doesn't surprise me he's going with a zero chance. DT was the one calling for a 4-8 inch snowstorm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted December 31, 2012 Share Posted December 31, 2012 Interestingly, by mid-Jan the CPC ensembles for today are switching back to their respective spots from December. What will be interesting is whether we get the same result, or if being deeper into winter, the AO/NAO potentially going negative mid-month will finally take over. Like mid-late November the GFS is showing cold in the long range operational. It was wrong then. However, there is some hope based upon today's numbers. Seems that also corresponds to the stratospheric warming event - which I am no expert. I also follow Stu Ostro on FB and he has been correctly pointing out the magnitude of the storm that just departed New England. I wonder how such a strong low pressure will affect things upstream? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted December 31, 2012 Author Share Posted December 31, 2012 DT was the one calling for a 4-8 inch snowstorm. Just a point of clarity here. DT didn't officially forecast anything. He stated that it was certainly possible and the model was showing snow accumulations, but he also said that he could be completely wrong. He said there was potential and that he was certainly leaning in the direction of a winter storm, but he didn't actually forecast it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jon Posted December 31, 2012 Share Posted December 31, 2012 Where are all these negative comments I keep reading about? I keep searching this thread for them and can't find them. I see people pointing out the obvious -- we haven't really even had a close call this far this winter, there is virtually no model support for an event later this week and the pattern goes to hell for at least the first half of January. With all respect, this sounds like a straw man to me. But maybe I'm missing the same thing with the negativity that I'm missing with this winter so far. A poster came out of the woodwork and mocked someone for mentioning phasing...adding nothing else to the disco. You're not looking hard enough. That was just yesterday. Also, guys, I posted a few pages ago (it was the last post of the page so I got covered by a new page) about the strat warming and AO/NAO...It appears by the way all of that's trending that it would be indeed Jan 15th and on when our best chances start once again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jmundie Posted December 31, 2012 Share Posted December 31, 2012 Anyone else notice that the GFS ensembles have come in significantly colder and further west with the trough? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAD_Wedge_NC Posted December 31, 2012 Share Posted December 31, 2012 Back to the actual lack of winter weather, the 12z GFS advertises a very torchy look in the Day 6-12 range -- more like April than January. Don't tell me you actually believe a long range forecast will verify......do you? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LithiaWx Posted December 31, 2012 Share Posted December 31, 2012 Don't tell me you actually believe a long range forecast will verify......do you? He's not talking about a forecast. He's referring to the pattern and it doesn't look good in that timeframe. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeyefan1 Posted December 31, 2012 Share Posted December 31, 2012 We have a thread dedicated to what jb/dt and others say Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FallsLake Posted December 31, 2012 Share Posted December 31, 2012 Anyone else notice that the GFS ensembles have come in significantly colder and further west with the trough? Look at the difference between the last two frames/runs. Not an expert but that looks like major differences. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
beanskip Posted December 31, 2012 Share Posted December 31, 2012 12z Canadian takes huge step toward GFS/Euro. Slows the southern disturbance down markedly -- precip cut way back and shunted south and east. Not good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted December 31, 2012 Share Posted December 31, 2012 Just a point of clarity here. DT didn't officially forecast anything. He stated that it was certainly possible and the model was showing snow accumulations, but he also said that he could be completely wrong. He said there was potential and that he was certainly leaning in the direction of a winter storm, but he didn't actually forecast it. I would agree with that. He actually mentioned that the upcoming January pattern was not great even with the location of the vortex being better than it was...but too far north to really influence an eastern trough into forming in a way that would produce a winter storm. His analysis this winter has been good, but misses like everyone else. He is a good person to learn from if you can take the edginess. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted December 31, 2012 Share Posted December 31, 2012 We have a thread dedicated to what jb/dt and others say Missed that...tidbits from the web I see now. I don't read that FWIW. Too much to keep track of I guess. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WhiteoutWX Posted December 31, 2012 Share Posted December 31, 2012 GFS is a frontal passage/cold chasing rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
deltadog03 Posted December 31, 2012 Share Posted December 31, 2012 NEXT!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted December 31, 2012 Share Posted December 31, 2012 NEXT!! Yep out to 84 the Euro is only going to make people in southwest Tx happy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snow haven Posted December 31, 2012 Share Posted December 31, 2012 That's why you wait till you get two- three days from the event to talk bout it otherwise it does nothing but get everyone excited over nothing Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
metalicwx366 Posted December 31, 2012 Share Posted December 31, 2012 That's why you wait till you get two- three days from the event to talk bout it otherwise it does nothing but get everyone excited over nothing Exactly. Agree 100%. I never got excited about it. There's always next time though Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
iceman Posted December 31, 2012 Share Posted December 31, 2012 That's why you wait till you get two- three days from the event to talk bout it otherwise it does nothing but get everyone excited over nothing It's really very simple isn't it? I wish everyone here could figure it out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted December 31, 2012 Share Posted December 31, 2012 I'm not real sure about the last three posters comments. If you sign up for a weather board I'm not real sure why you are only wanting 3 day forecasts? If that is all you want, click on your NWS grid forecast. The beauty of this board is for people to discuss upcoming potential. It's not the fault of other posters if some get excited over a couple runs of a few models. People need to keep emotions in check. I have seen models bust inside 3 days, for better and worse. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WhiteoutWX Posted December 31, 2012 Share Posted December 31, 2012 That's why you wait till you get two- three days from the event to talk bout it otherwise it does nothing but get everyone excited over nothing Yeah people talking up storms 7-10 days away is a little much. I mean its fine to mention them but don't hang your hat on it or you'll be disappointed 95% of the time. I'm just hoping that we can get a better pattern to set up for late January and into February. We had the -nao/ao to start December and now we have the +pna. Just need them to happen at the same time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
strongwxnc Posted December 31, 2012 Share Posted December 31, 2012 Very well said sir.. I'm not real sure about the last three posters comments. If you sign up for a weather board I'm not real sure why you are only wanting 3 day forecasts? If that is all you want, click on your NWS grid forecast. The beauty of this board is for people to discuss upcoming potential. It's not the fault of other posters if some get excited over a couple runs of a few models. People need to keep emotions in check. I have seen models bust inside 3 days, for better and worse. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BIG FROSTY Posted December 31, 2012 Share Posted December 31, 2012 I'm not real sure about the last three posters comments. If you sign up for a weather board I'm not real sure why you are only wanting 3 day forecasts? If that is all you want, click on your NWS grid forecast. The beauty of thisthis board is for people to discuss upcoming potential. It's not the fault of other posters if some get excited over a couple runs of a few models. People need to keep emotions in check. I have seen models bust inside 3 days, for better and worse. I agree 100% if you just interested in a three day forecast watch your local news... Like you said this is a weather board hence we like to discuss long range weather also!!!! There's nothing wrong with getting excited over a model run or getting discouraged over one, it's weather it's ever changing so some people's emotions change as much as the weather. Lol enjoy the weather it's the only weather you got! Seems like i heard that somewhere.... Go out and play some golf before winter sets in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted December 31, 2012 Share Posted December 31, 2012 I'm not real sure about the last three posters comments. If you sign up for a weather board I'm not real sure why you are only wanting 3 day forecasts? If that is all you want, click on your NWS grid forecast. The beauty of this board is for people to discuss upcoming potential. Completely agree franklin...or better yet, just stick with your 7-day planner on your 11 o'clock newscast. Yeah people talking up storms 7-10 days away is a little much. I mean its fine to mention them but don't hang your hat on it or you'll be disappointed 95% of the time. The met and non-met posters that are interested in the the meteorology behind 7-10 day storms/patterns aren't the ones hanging their hats and aren't the ones getting disappointed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted December 31, 2012 Share Posted December 31, 2012 Am I reading the UKMet wrong or was it close to an Apps runner? It looked like it had the low close to CLT. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WhiteoutWX Posted December 31, 2012 Share Posted December 31, 2012 The met and non-met posters that are interested in the the meteorology behind 7-10 day storms/patterns aren't the ones hanging their hats and aren't the ones getting disappointed. Oh definately. I'm not trying to say there isn't valuable meteorological discussion that can be had in the 7-10+ range. But the people posting every run of the gfs to see how a storm 300 hours out changes run to run is not adding anything meaningful. I look at the fantasy storms as much as the next weather weenie but that's all they are is fantasy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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