Cold Rain Posted December 31, 2012 Author Share Posted December 31, 2012 [ Debbie Downer] Turrible. Turrible. At a glance, that looks like what most of December looked like. Seems that's our default, go-to pattern this winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted December 31, 2012 Share Posted December 31, 2012 This has been clear for some time now. I think the only question now is with how bad it looks, do we torch like December? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted December 31, 2012 Share Posted December 31, 2012 Turrible. Turrible. At a glance, that looks like what most of December looked like. Seems that's our default, go-to pattern this winter. At first glance it's not so great. I think it does look better than the first of Dec since there is ridging over Alaska. Also the 500mb pattern looks a little warm but surface temps are not a torch. Looks like after a below normal this week we warm up next week. Jb says its a 5-10 warmup, trough goes out west then comes east. We will see, at least it has the ridging over Alaska, unlike last year where there was a vortex. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted December 31, 2012 Share Posted December 31, 2012 12z NAM actually worse than 6z GFS -- southern disturbance just as slow, but weaker. Why am I even tracking this non-event? Yep just came out a mess. We've been spoiled with surprise snows from years past so we always gotta keep one eye on the ones that look like jack diddly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FallsLake Posted December 31, 2012 Share Posted December 31, 2012 Until we get the PNA, NAO, and AO to work together it will be warm(ish). All we really need is two of them to come together(this time of year) and we could get something. I would ignore the individual long range model runs until we see real change (PNA, NAO, AO). I see nothing but a possible neutral look in all in the long range (PNA actually goes negative). http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/daily_ao_index/teleconnections.shtml Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tacoma Posted December 31, 2012 Share Posted December 31, 2012 was hoping to wake up and read on here where the models were coming in our favor but seems it has become worse than last night. I guess now on to the end of Jan. was hoping something would give before then so we don't come close to running out of time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted December 31, 2012 Share Posted December 31, 2012 Latest CFS says winter returns Jan 20th, hopefully the Euro weeklies agree tonight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted December 31, 2012 Author Share Posted December 31, 2012 At first glance it's not so great. I think it does look better than the first of Dec since there is ridging over Alaska. Also the 500mb pattern looks a little warm but surface temps are not a torch. Looks like after a below normal this week we warm up next week. Jb says its a 5-10 warmup, trough goes out west then comes east. We will see, at least it has the ridging over Alaska, unlike last year where there was a vortex. Yeah, it doesn't look to torch, so I guess that's good. Hopefully, it won't take a whole month to realign troughs and ridges into a more favorable configuration for us. This step-down-into-winter process that everyone keeps harping on this year is going to end up taking longer that it seemed, it seems. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FallsLake Posted December 31, 2012 Share Posted December 31, 2012 Latest CFS says winter returns Dec 20th, hopefully the Euro weeklies agree tonight. That would make since. **I read something years back (actually I think from JB) that in a warm pattern winter there ussually is at least one cold period. This runs opposite of a January thaw. Something to the effect that the (warm) pattern has to reset itself. During that period is when we can get our cold. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted December 31, 2012 Share Posted December 31, 2012 Latest CFS says winter returns Dec 20th, hopefully the Euro weeklies agree tonight. LOL, Dec 20th is a long wait, I hope it comes sooner. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowNiner Posted December 31, 2012 Share Posted December 31, 2012 Chiming in...winter so far has seemed pretty normal. December was warm, it's cooled off and we've had lows into the 20's a few times. Nothing to get down on IMO; pretty typical Disappointed though to hear that we're going to have to punt to January 20 ish. That's the heart of winter really. Come that time, I believe we'll only have about 3 weeks left before the cherries start blooming. Cutting it real close, assuming we do get a flipped switch in a few weeks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Poimen Posted December 31, 2012 Share Posted December 31, 2012 day 10 EURO for two consecutive runs has full blown torch in the SE... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
beanskip Posted December 31, 2012 Share Posted December 31, 2012 12z GFS actually worse than 6z run -- southern disturbance is even weaker. The only thing this storm is "this close" to, is disappearing altogether. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted December 31, 2012 Share Posted December 31, 2012 No shock here for anyone waiting on the GFS...it says "stick a fork in it". Guess we'll have to wait to see if the Ukie can pull out a miracle. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted December 31, 2012 Share Posted December 31, 2012 If the GFS and NAM are correct MX around the big bend area will have more snow than 90% of the SE this season. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BrierCreekWx Posted December 31, 2012 Share Posted December 31, 2012 This won't be popular but I feel like it needs to be said. There are way too many emotions running around in this thread, and too many attacks on forecasters who are approaching this from a forecaster's mentality vs. just living and dying on every model run. Regardless of what models or "DT" or NWS says, this pattern had/has the potential to produce some wintry weather across the southeast, especially NC where cold air is a little closer. You have to understand that all of the outlets I mentioned have agendas - "DT" wants to be the first to call the storm, regardless of how risky it is, and the NWS is going to be on the opposite end of the spectrum and play it overly conservative until the event is within 72 hours at least. With this particular event, the only part of the upper air pattern that I didn't like and still don't is the stubborn Atlantic ridge, but as the models showed us a few days ago there is still a way to squeeze out some frozen precipitation. With so much northern stream energy influencing this event, no one knows how this is going to evolve yet! You simply cannot discount a significant change in the modeling until the northern stream energy gets better sampled! I urge those who doubt me on this to go back and study the 12/26/2010 event. The northern stream energy didn't start getting sampled until 12z on 12/24, which is when the models finally started coming back around to the phased solution because it slowed down the energy and allowed it to phase behind the southern stream shortwave. Before that, they were advertising a weak surface low that was primarily rain for 12/26. Sound familiar? With all of that said, it is going to take a lot for this to go right for us, and of course odds are against it. But all the negative comments directed towards those who are recognizing the pattern seem unwarranted, unfair, and frankly baseless. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted December 31, 2012 Share Posted December 31, 2012 This won't be popular but I feel like it needs to be said. There are way too many emotions running around in this thread, and too many attacks on forecasters who are approaching this from a forecaster's mentality vs. just living and dying on every model run. Regardless of what models or "DT" or NWS says, this pattern had/has the potential to produce some wintry weather across the southeast, especially NC where cold air is a little closer. You have to understand that all of the outlets I mentioned have agendas - "DT" wants to be the first to call the storm, regardless of how risky it is, and the NWS is going to be on the opposite end of the spectrum and play it overly conservative until the event is within 72 hours at least. With this particular event, the only part of the upper air pattern that I didn't like and still don't is the stubborn Atlantic ridge, but as the models showed us a few days ago there is still a way to squeeze out some frozen precipitation. With so much northern stream energy influencing this event, no one knows how this is going to evolve yet! You simply cannot discount a significant change in the modeling until the northern stream energy gets better sampled! I urge those who doubt me on this to go back and study the 12/26/2010 event. The northern stream energy didn't start getting sampled until 12z on 12/24, which is when the models finally started coming back around to the phased solution because it slowed down the energy and allowed it to phase behind the southern stream shortwave. Before that, they were advertising a weak surface low that was primarily rain for 12/26. Sound familiar? With all of that said, it is going to take a lot for this to go right for us, and of course odds are against it. But all the negative comments directed towards those who are recognizing the pattern seem unwarranted, unfair, and frankly baseless. Thanks. I honestly don't get the cheap shots directed at certain folks for simply saying what they see. I did have one question. Don't we need that southern energy to move further east and not loose steam as the models are showing? Or I guess the question is, without the kicker does the northern energy have to make a more south west direction so it can phase with the southern energy? Just curious in a good timing situation what we need to look for with the southern and northern branches. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
isohume Posted December 31, 2012 Share Posted December 31, 2012 With all of that said, it is going to take a lot for this to go right for us, and of course odds are against it. But all the negative comments directed towards those who are recognizing the pattern seem unwarranted, unfair, and frankly baseless. So does "right" mean a wintry scenario? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BrierCreekWx Posted December 31, 2012 Share Posted December 31, 2012 Thanks. I honestly don't get the cheap shots directed at certain folks for simply saying what they see. I did have one question. Don't we need that southern energy to move further east and not loose steam as the models are showing? Or I guess the question is, without the kicker does the northern energy have to make a more south west direction so it can phase with the southern energy? Just curious in a good timing situation what we need to look for with the southern and northern branches. Yes, we need the southern stream energy to at least get to a neutral tilt (as Cold Rain and others have said) and it could potentially do that if the northern stream energy didn't squash it first - but again, this could change if the northern stream energy isn't being modeled correctly. So does "right" mean a wintry scenario? Absolutely. Again, it would require some significant changes, but I think it's a bit premature to discount it 100% at this point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NavarreDon Posted December 31, 2012 Share Posted December 31, 2012 This won't be popular but I feel like it needs to be said. There are way too many emotions running around in this thread, and too many attacks on forecasters who are approaching this from a forecaster's mentality vs. just living and dying on every model run. Regardless of what models or "DT" or NWS says, this pattern had/has the potential to produce some wintry weather across the southeast, especially NC where cold air is a little closer. You have to understand that all of the outlets I mentioned have agendas - "DT" wants to be the first to call the storm, regardless of how risky it is, and the NWS is going to be on the opposite end of the spectrum and play it overly conservative until the event is within 72 hours at least. With this particular event, the only part of the upper air pattern that I didn't like and still don't is the stubborn Atlantic ridge, but as the models showed us a few days ago there is still a way to squeeze out some frozen precipitation. With so much northern stream energy influencing this event, no one knows how this is going to evolve yet! You simply cannot discount a significant change in the modeling until the northern stream energy gets better sampled! I urge those who doubt me on this to go back and study the 12/26/2010 event. The northern stream energy didn't start getting sampled until 12z on 12/24, which is when the models finally started coming back around to the phased solution because it slowed down the energy and allowed it to phase behind the southern stream shortwave. Before that, they were advertising a weak surface low that was primarily rain for 12/26. Sound familiar? With all of that said, it is going to take a lot for this to go right for us, and of course odds are against it. But all the negative comments directed towards those who are recognizing the pattern seem unwarranted, unfair, and frankly baseless. Spot on! Weenie highs are to high & lows to low. People who are in the business tend to stay even keeled & look at the facts. The X-mas storm threads are such a great example. No one Mets, Models, or weenies know what is going to happen yet with this set up. Try not to live and die with every model run. Who knows what is around the corner. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
isohume Posted December 31, 2012 Share Posted December 31, 2012 Yes, we need the southern stream energy to at least get to a neutral tilt (as Cold Rain and others have said) and it could potentially do that if the northern stream energy didn't squash it first - but again, this could change if the northern stream energy isn't being modeled correctly. Absolutely. Again, it would require some significant changes, but I think it's a bit premature to discount it 100% at this point. Yeah I think it's safe to say confidence is low wrt to a wintry outcome as has been the case with all the systems in that timeframe this year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BrierCreekWx Posted December 31, 2012 Share Posted December 31, 2012 Yeah I think it's safe to say confidence is low wrt to a wintry outcome as has been the case with all the systems in that timeframe this year. No doubt confidence is low with how models have trended, however when we have a true cold air source just to the north, a split flow out west with complex interactions between northern and southern streams, and a previously modeled threat, I just don't think it can be ruled out 96+ hours out - yet! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
beanskip Posted December 31, 2012 Share Posted December 31, 2012 Where are all these negative comments I keep reading about? I keep searching this thread for them and can't find them. I see people pointing out the obvious -- we haven't really even had a close call this far this winter, there is virtually no model support for an event later this week and the pattern goes to hell for at least the first half of January. With all respect, this sounds like a straw man to me. But maybe I'm missing the same thing with the negativity that I'm missing with this winter so far. This won't be popular but I feel like it needs to be said. There are way too many emotions running around in this thread, and too many attacks on forecasters who are approaching this from a forecaster's mentality vs. just living and dying on every model run. Regardless of what models or "DT" or NWS says, this pattern had/has the potential to produce some wintry weather across the southeast, especially NC where cold air is a little closer. You have to understand that all of the outlets I mentioned have agendas - "DT" wants to be the first to call the storm, regardless of how risky it is, and the NWS is going to be on the opposite end of the spectrum and play it overly conservative until the event is within 72 hours at least. With this particular event, the only part of the upper air pattern that I didn't like and still don't is the stubborn Atlantic ridge, but as the models showed us a few days ago there is still a way to squeeze out some frozen precipitation. With so much northern stream energy influencing this event, no one knows how this is going to evolve yet! You simply cannot discount a significant change in the modeling until the northern stream energy gets better sampled! I urge those who doubt me on this to go back and study the 12/26/2010 event. The northern stream energy didn't start getting sampled until 12z on 12/24, which is when the models finally started coming back around to the phased solution because it slowed down the energy and allowed it to phase behind the southern stream shortwave. Before that, they were advertising a weak surface low that was primarily rain for 12/26. Sound familiar? With all of that said, it is going to take a lot for this to go right for us, and of course odds are against it. But all the negative comments directed towards those who are recognizing the pattern seem unwarranted, unfair, and frankly baseless. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
isohume Posted December 31, 2012 Share Posted December 31, 2012 No doubt confidence is low with how models have trended, however when we have a true cold air source just to the north, a split flow out west with complex interactions between northern and southern streams, and a previously modeled threat, I just don't think it can be ruled out 96+ hours out - yet! Who has ruled it out? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted December 31, 2012 Share Posted December 31, 2012 12z GFS actually worse than 6z run -- southern disturbance is even weaker. The only thing this storm is "this close" to, is disappearing altogether. Where are all these negative comments I keep reading about? I keep searching this thread for them and can't find them. I see people pointing out the obvious -- we haven't really even had a close call this far this winter, there is virtually no model support for an event later this week and the pattern goes to hell for at least the first half of January. With all respect, this sounds like a straw man to me. But maybe I'm missing the same thing with the negativity that I'm missing with this winter so far. It may not have been your intent but the above I've put in bold came off really passive aggressive. It didn't hurt my feelings but just feels a bit attackish. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted December 31, 2012 Share Posted December 31, 2012 Who has ruled it out? That JagJax guy seems over confident nothing will come about of it as well as DT. JagJax probably doesn't count though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SN_Lover Posted December 31, 2012 Share Posted December 31, 2012 did 12z just phase or am i analyzing it wrong? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
isohume Posted December 31, 2012 Share Posted December 31, 2012 That JagJax guy seems over confident nothing will come about of it as well as DT. JagJax probably doesn't count though. DT seems to play to the extremes. It doesn't surprise me he's going with a zero chance. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
beanskip Posted December 31, 2012 Share Posted December 31, 2012 Well, you and I have spent a lot of time together on this board, so I'm going to reserve comment other than to say, if a comment like that is deemed "negative" it doesn't say much for the level of tolerance of discourse on this board. It may not have been your intent but the above I've put in bold came off really passive aggressive. It didn't hurt my feelings but just feels a bit attackish. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
beanskip Posted December 31, 2012 Share Posted December 31, 2012 Back to the actual lack of winter weather, the 12z GFS advertises a very torchy look in the Day 6-12 range -- more like April than January. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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