HKY_WX Posted December 31, 2012 Share Posted December 31, 2012 Wow, I checked it when it came out and must not have cleared my cache as old maps showed up. That's impressive to have both UKIE/CMC on board. http://meteocentre.com/models/models.php?mod=gemglb&map=na&run=00〈=en this site has a really nice layout now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted December 31, 2012 Share Posted December 31, 2012 Hmmmm... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HKY_WX Posted December 31, 2012 Share Posted December 31, 2012 @96HR, UkMet post-phase surface with 1012mb low in the gulf. By 144, there's a 988mb system off the east coast. http://meteocentre.c...PN_096_0000.gif After seeing that, that low would probably track inland across the far deep south. It's an extreme outlier, but it at least shows you how fast this could shift is the right things happen. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted December 31, 2012 Share Posted December 31, 2012 Would the low over the lakes still be a problem? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SN_Lover Posted December 31, 2012 Share Posted December 31, 2012 DT just pulled a 180. hope he is not right. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bingcrosbyb Posted December 31, 2012 Share Posted December 31, 2012 Since the UKMET showed a phase tonight and doesn't have support from any other model as of yet, I will just post from the PSU site: Quote One benefit of the UKMET model is that it seems that the model does fairly well in forecasting the phasing of systems in the northern and southern branches of the jet stream across the northern hemisphere. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DopplerWx Posted December 31, 2012 Share Posted December 31, 2012 euro out to 96 and it doesn't do it either. im thinking it may be about time to throw in the towel on this one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jburns Posted December 31, 2012 Share Posted December 31, 2012 DT just pulled a 180. hope he is not right. Pretty solid reasoning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jon Posted December 31, 2012 Share Posted December 31, 2012 euro out to 96 and it doesn't do it either. im thinking it may be about time to throw in the towel on this one. Not so fast...I mean we are under 100hrs and got the UKMET (with the Canadian somewhat trending west), the Euro basically with the GFS...both with the northern stream energy through the midwest with the phase over OK (or no phase but the energy is still more east), meanwhile the UK MET with the northern stream energy from montana down into new mexico, NAM (if you want to believe it this far out) basically agrees with the UKMET. I think once the pieces of energy can get sampled well we'll really see the models grabbing one solution, and hopefully it's the one we all want. We might see different solutions and vast disagreements between models inside 72 hours, hence the chase. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted December 31, 2012 Share Posted December 31, 2012 Not so fast...I mean we are under 100hrs and got the UKMET (with the Canadian somewhat trending west), the Euro basically with the GFS...both with the northern stream energy through the midwest with the phase over OK (or no phase but the energy is still more east), meanwhile the UK MET with the northern stream energy from montana down into new mexico, NAM (if you want to believe it this far out) basically agrees with the UKMET. I think once the pieces of energy can get sampled well we'll really see the models grabbing one solution, and hopefully it's the one we all want. We might see different solutions and vast disagreements between models inside 72 hours, hence the chase. Doubt that will happen jon,you got a 30h showing on the gfs and euro somewhere around kan?St J is way to strong its going to stay surpressed Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jon Posted December 31, 2012 Share Posted December 31, 2012 Doubt that will happen jon,you got a 30h showing on the gfs and euro somewhere around kan?St J is way to strong its going to stay surpressed Doubt what will happen? I didn't say anything will happen in my post, just what the models were doing. Do you mean doubt it will phase? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MotoWeatherman Posted December 31, 2012 Share Posted December 31, 2012 Check out Fairbanks' departures for December - unreal. That, according to the models, is about to change. That should at least give us a chance as Wow was alluding to. However, it has been my experience that when Alaska has extreme cold it is pretty much the opposite here in TN. So, getting that anomaly out of the way is at least a step. By no means is it a guarantee it gets colder...but like I said, it's a start. What site did you use to pull that data? Thanks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted December 31, 2012 Share Posted December 31, 2012 Looking at the Euro I was shocked there were not more posts here. Compared to 12z while not a snow lovers dream it's about night and day. 00z has 850 line running from east of RDU along the coast of NC/SC to CAE to ATL and then down to the panhandle with very light QPF for NC/SC. It then pops a low @126 and heads OTS (no QPF associated with this). Now compare that to 00z 850's run roughly along I-40 in NC and it pops a low OTS with no QPF at all before hand in NC/SC. Euro ENS (EPS Control Run) is also very similar albeit a tad slower. Just to clarify, my gut tells me this isn't going to happen. That being said I'm still going to check out the runs. I go back to work today so I'll probably be posting less when the runs are coming out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted December 31, 2012 Share Posted December 31, 2012 What site did you use to pull that data? Thanks. Try this...link wouldn't work last time. Go to climate, choose Fairbanks... http://pafg.arh.noaa.gov/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NavarreDon Posted December 31, 2012 Share Posted December 31, 2012 Looking at the Euro I was shocked there were not more posts here. Compared to 12z while not a snow lovers dream it's about night and day. 00z has 850 line running from east of RDU along the coast of NC/SC to CAE to ATL and then down to the panhandle with very light QPF for NC/SC. It then pops a low @126 and heads OTS (no QPF associated with this). Now compare that to 00z 850's run roughly along I-40 in NC and it pops a low OTS with no QPF at all before hand in NC/SC. Euro ENS (EPS Control Run) is also very similar albeit a tad slower. Just to clarify, my gut tells me this isn't going to happen. That being said I'm still going to check out the runs. I go back to work today so I'll probably be posting less when the runs are coming out. Agree....some of the models are trending in the right direction. While it may be little baby steps instead of a full fledged sprint. This event is worth keeping a eye on at this point. Part of GSPs long term: .LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... AS OF 230AM MONDAY...THE MEDIUM RANGE WILL CONTINUE TO BE DOMINATED BY UPPER TROFINESS OVER THE EAST AND BEGINS WITH A LINGERING FRONT OVER NORTH FLORIDA TO THE CAROLINA COAST. IN THE PREVIOUS TWO NIGHTS...THE NEW ECMWF WOULD COME IN TRENDING DRIER FOR US AND CARRYING PRECIP SOUTH AND OUT OF OUR PIEDMONT COUNTIES. HOWEVER...THE BRAND NEW ECMWF IS MORE GFS LIKE WITH LIGHT PRECIP EXTENDING UP INTO THE EASTERN AND SOUTHERN MOUNTAINS DURING THE DAY THURSDAY. BUFKIT GFS SOUNDINGS SHOW LIGHT SNOW AT BOONE EARLY THURSDAY MORNING. WILL ADJUST GRIDS TO ACCOUNT FOR SLIGHT CHANGES IN MODELS...BUT NOTHING BIG FOR THURSDAY AS SMALL CHANGES IN MODELS COULD LEAD TO MORE OR LESS SNOW IN THE MOUNTAINS THURSDAY MORNING. INITIAL NORTHEAST FLOW COMBINED WITH EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER SHOULD LEAD TO HIGHS ON THURSDAY A FEW DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted December 31, 2012 Share Posted December 31, 2012 Folks, Due to the GFS/CMC runs having backed away from the 12/29 12Z runs showing actual sig. wintry precip. for the bulk of N GA and the Euro still not showing any, I'm reducing the chance for anything significant for the bulk of N GA on/near Jan. 3 from ~1/6 to ~1/10. Also, I'm down to ~1/5 (from about 1 in 3) for something minor or more for the bulk of the area. That's still a relatively respectable % meaning I'm still slightly wary of the possibility of a shift back to wintry. Actually, the 0Z 12/31 CMC is a little more threatening than the prior two CMS runs (fwiw since it tends to be the least accurate of the three) with possibly some snow being generated in a small area of N GA north of ATL-AHN. However, even that is still nowhere near the major (5-6") S it was generating on the 12/29 12Z run. So, the overall trend of the model consensus since 12/29 12Z has been by no means favorable. In summary for the bulk of N GA for on/near Jan. 3, whereas it is still too early for Dandy Don to sing "Turn out the Lights", he's definitely warming up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HKY_WX Posted December 31, 2012 Share Posted December 31, 2012 Euro ensemble has a snowstorm now as well. It has some overrunning out ahead and then the main S/W drops in and develops a comma head. THis is so close to a christmas storm outcome folks. Just a small amount more phasing and we'lre there. Will be fun to watch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SeVa Posted December 31, 2012 Share Posted December 31, 2012 Euro ensemble has a snowstorm now as well. It has some overrunning out ahead and then the main S/W drops in and develops a comma head. THis is so close to a christmas storm outcome folks. Just a small amount more phasing and we'lre there. Will be fun to watch. Can you post this image? The best look I see on the ensembles is this, and it is not really impressive... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted December 31, 2012 Share Posted December 31, 2012 Euro ensemble has a snowstorm now as well. It has some overrunning out ahead and then the main S/W drops in and develops a comma head. THis is so close to a christmas storm outcome folks. Just a small amount more phasing and we'lre there. Will be fun to watch. Already the 12z NAM looks more conducive to a possible phase compared to previous runs. Energy out in California is a little faster and that northern energy seems to be taking a more south approach as opposed to south eas Scratch that, looks about the same. Of course who knows where it will end up just something to look for. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted December 31, 2012 Share Posted December 31, 2012 Can you post this image? The best look I see on the ensembles is this, and it is not really impressive... You need to go to about hour 120. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HKY_WX Posted December 31, 2012 Share Posted December 31, 2012 Can you post this image? The best look I see on the ensembles is this, and it is not really impressive... Not true, on the 6 hour maps when the upper low drops down, quite a bit of precip develps over NC(deformation band). Raleigh and northern NC would probably get a 1-3 based on the ensemble mean. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCSNOW Posted December 31, 2012 Share Posted December 31, 2012 Already the 12z NAM looks more conducive to a possible phase compared to previous runs. Energy out in California is a little faster and that northern energy seems to be taking a more south approach as opposed to south east. Of course who knows where it will end up just something to look for. Also has some light snow in the northern mtns Tuesday a.m. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted December 31, 2012 Share Posted December 31, 2012 Also has some light snow in the northern mtns Tuesday a.m. Ya they are thinking tonght will start of as snow and sleet then change to freezing rain then to all rain. With the snow around could be interesting around here tomorrow morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted December 31, 2012 Share Posted December 31, 2012 Correct me if I'm wrong but as DT pointed out isn't the biggest issue here the lack of a kicker? How do we get that southern energy to jet east without it? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted December 31, 2012 Author Share Posted December 31, 2012 After watching DT's video and JB this morning saying there will not be any cold air in the east until at least the 20th of January, it is evident that it will be be 3 weeks or more before there is even a chance of a snowstorm in the SE. Well, let's put it this way... Up until this week, they have been both honking for a cold January. So if the forecasts for an upcoming 3-4 week period from a week ago are not going to be correct, why would their new forecasts for an upcoming 3-4 week period have any better odds of being correct? On the other hand, [NegativeNancy] it seems like forecasts for warmth end up being far more accurate than forecasts for cold. [/NegativeNancy] Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
beanskip Posted December 31, 2012 Share Posted December 31, 2012 This has been clear for some time now. After watching DT's video and JB this morning saying there will not be any cold air in the east until at least the 20th of January, it is evident that it will be be 3 weeks or more before there is even a chance of a snowstorm in the SE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted December 31, 2012 Share Posted December 31, 2012 Well, let's put it this way... Up until this week, they have been both honking for a cold January. So if the forecasts for an upcoming 3-4 week period from a week ago are not going to be correct, why would their new forecasts for an upcoming 3-4 week period have any better odds of being correct? On the other hand, [NegativeNancy] it seems like forecasts for warmth end up being far more accurate than forecasts for cold. [/NegativeNancy] [ Debbie Downer] Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
beanskip Posted December 31, 2012 Share Posted December 31, 2012 12z NAM actually worse than 6z GFS -- southern disturbance just as slow, but weaker. Why am I even tracking this non-event? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
beanskip Posted December 31, 2012 Share Posted December 31, 2012 If this thing were any more positively tilted, it would be reclining. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted December 31, 2012 Share Posted December 31, 2012 Correct me if I'm wrong but as DT pointed out isn't the biggest issue here the lack of a kicker? How do we get that southern energy to jet east without it? Burger, here was the Ukie last night compared to the NAM today. You can see the clear difference is how it handles the northern stream. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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