Cold Rain Posted December 31, 2012 Author Share Posted December 31, 2012 NAM is very close to a big phase...but alas it's the LR NAM. It's just 3 or 4 inches away. You would think that if a phase is indeed going to happen, at least one model would actually show it within the next day or two. If we don't see it by 0Z tomorrow, I think we're going to be out of luck unfortunately. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted December 31, 2012 Share Posted December 31, 2012 It's just 3 or 4 inches away. You would think that if a phase is indeed going to happen, at least one model would actually show it within the next day or two. If we don't see it by 0Z tomorrow, I think we're going to be out of luck unfortunately. Ukie showed it today. And it turned into an apps runner. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted December 31, 2012 Author Share Posted December 31, 2012 Ukie showed it today. And it turned into an apps runner. Yeah, that's a good point. And I just read the previous posts about it too. I'm losing it, I think. But I don't know...I see anything on the Ukie or the CMC and it's nice to look at and all, but my default reaction is just to ignore it. That's probably not a great approach, but if I'm going to feel good about getting snow, I wanna see it show up on the Euro and GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted December 31, 2012 Share Posted December 31, 2012 It's just 3 or 4 inches away. You would think that if a phase is indeed going to happen, at least one model would actually show it within the next day or two. If we don't see it by 0Z tomorrow, I think we're going to be out of luck unfortunately. Sadly it's the 84 hour NAM. Would love if the 00z somehow sees something tonight. Probably grasping at straws though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted December 31, 2012 Share Posted December 31, 2012 Yeah, that's a good point. And I just read the previous posts about it too. I'm losing it, I think. But I don't know...I see anything on the Ukie or the CMC and it's nice to look at and all, but my default reaction is just to ignore it. That's probably not a great approach, but if I'm going to feel good about getting snow, I wanna see it show up on the Euro and GFS. Agreed, but the CMC ENS does look good, I am definitely reaching as the CMC has stunk lately... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DopplerWx Posted December 31, 2012 Share Posted December 31, 2012 Sadly it's the 84 hour NAM. Would love if the 00z somehow sees something tonight. Probably grasping at straws though. Well at the very least just imagine if the 00z gfs shows an absolute bomb and paints nc white. The board would explode! but it is kind of like buying a lotto ticket and spending all day imagining what you would do if you won. i do think the possibility is there though, each run seems to be closer and closer, heck alot of us gave up on the xmas 2010 storm and all of a sudden the models brought it back. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCSNOW Posted December 31, 2012 Share Posted December 31, 2012 Ukie showed it today. And it turned into an apps runner. Notice the Day (Saturday(UKIE hr144)). Also notice the Nam 0z one or two more frames past 84 and it might have had a phased solution FRI/SAT, who knows. We might just see one more trend of a possible delayed but not denied scenerio play out. May not be the scenerio we want, who knows but a threat for 1/4-1/5 instead of 1/2-1/3 is possible. Edit: The CMC ENsemble just posted is Friday timeframe. Something to think about! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted December 31, 2012 Share Posted December 31, 2012 Sadly it's the 84 hour NAM. Would love if the 00z somehow sees something tonight. Probably grasping at straws though. I think what Brandon was saying to have the southern vort that it's in CA in say west Texas and a piece of that northern energy diving down from in MT break off and dive down the backside of the vort in Tx. Lots of changes needed for that to happen. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted December 31, 2012 Author Share Posted December 31, 2012 Isn't the fact that the low in the northern stream is closed off going to make it harder to phase? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCSNOW Posted December 31, 2012 Share Posted December 31, 2012 I think what Brandon was saying to have the southern vort that it's in CA in say west Texas and a piece of that northern energy diving down from in MT break off and dive down the backside of the vort in Tx. Lots of changes needed for that to happen. That's hr 66, by hr 84 that vort in CA is in NM/TX sliding right under the northern energy. It need to get stronger and get out in front western GOM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted December 31, 2012 Share Posted December 31, 2012 That's hr 66, by hr 84 that vort in CA is in NM/TX sliding right under the northern energy. It need to get stronger and get out in front western GOM. Yep, I was just using that for discussion purposes, if you compare the 18z GFS at the same time as the 84 hour NAM you can see how far off the GFS is from what we want, it has the northern energy farther east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DopplerWx Posted December 31, 2012 Share Posted December 31, 2012 00z gfs doesn't get it done Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rduwx Posted December 31, 2012 Share Posted December 31, 2012 00z gfs doesn't get it done Nope...Moisture comes in further north and east but there just isn't any cold air. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted December 31, 2012 Share Posted December 31, 2012 It looked like a baby step to me. We need to hope for a phase. This had the northern energy slower than the 18z so again it was close but no cigar. Still bears watching. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
POWERSTROKE Posted December 31, 2012 Share Posted December 31, 2012 It looked like a baby step to me. We need to hope for a phase. This had the northern energy slower than the 18z so again it was close but no cigar. Still bears watching. if it starts heading in our direction I hope you or somebody new starts the thread, but you better be quick on the draw if you know what I mean Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted December 31, 2012 Share Posted December 31, 2012 UKIE is nuts, shows a 1013 LP over the pan handle at day 5 and than day 6 shows a 988 bomb SE of Boston. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tazaroo Posted December 31, 2012 Share Posted December 31, 2012 UKIE is nuts, shows a 1013 LP over the pan handle at day 5 and than day 6 shows a 988 bomb SE of Boston. Don't know the temps but that sounds like a bomb. Probably grasping for straws here, Can the Ukie be on to something? Would love to see some Euro or at least ggem support! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HKY_WX Posted December 31, 2012 Share Posted December 31, 2012 Yea the ukmet is showing a phase. Pretty much what we should hope for. Notice how the northern vort is going to fall in behind the southern piece of energy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bingcrosbyb Posted December 31, 2012 Share Posted December 31, 2012 Wow @ UKmet. Didn't expect to see that this late in the game. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CaryWx Posted December 31, 2012 Share Posted December 31, 2012 Wouldn't that vort falling in behind trigger an earlier phase and potentially drag it up the apps or west? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DopplerWx Posted December 31, 2012 Share Posted December 31, 2012 even though it is the ukie, it still gives us hope and shows that the phase is still a very real possibility. keep us updated on what the later frames show hky. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HKY_WX Posted December 31, 2012 Share Posted December 31, 2012 Wouldn't that vort falling in behind trigger an earlier phase and potentially drag it up the apps or west? The pattern doesn't support that w/ the ridge axis being far enough east. It's either miller a or out to see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CaryWx Posted December 31, 2012 Share Posted December 31, 2012 Thanks HKY. I knew you'd know. I'll take those (A or out to sea) odds over a runner potential any day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted December 31, 2012 Share Posted December 31, 2012 Yea the ukmet is showing a phase. Pretty much what we should hope for. Notice how the northern vort is going to fall in behind the southern piece of energy. Fairly amazing difference for a 3 day model prog when comparing to the GFS at the same time...you would think if there was a chance the Euro would bite tonight... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HKY_WX Posted December 31, 2012 Share Posted December 31, 2012 canadian jumped west a lot. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Pilotwx Posted December 31, 2012 Share Posted December 31, 2012 From looking @ the models from the past couple of days and especially today they each are keying in on 1 specific piece of energy, not the total picture. Good news about this is they are seeing the pieces for a storm, now lets see what happens. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jon Posted December 31, 2012 Share Posted December 31, 2012 Fairly amazing difference for a 3 day model prog when comparing to the GFS at the same time...you would think if there was a chance the Euro would bite tonight... Well the southern stream energy is basically identical, that northern stream energy on the UKMET literally DIVES completely straight down from Montana to New Mexico, wild. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted December 31, 2012 Share Posted December 31, 2012 canadian jumped west a lot. Wow, I checked it when it came out and must not have cleared my cache as old maps showed up. That's impressive to have both UKIE/CMC on board. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Pilotwx Posted December 31, 2012 Share Posted December 31, 2012 Might be keying in the energy up north in canada a little to much. But, we have seen serval systems take the west of the Apps route. canadian jumped west a lot. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bingcrosbyb Posted December 31, 2012 Share Posted December 31, 2012 @96HR, UkMet post-phase surface with 1012mb low in the gulf. By 144, there's a 988mb system off the east coast. http://meteocentre.com/models/ukmet_amer_00/GZ_D5_PN_096_0000.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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